A Coronavirus Vaccine 'May Be Six Months Away' (nypost.com) 203
The New York Post reports that a COVID-19 vaccine "may be six months away, according to a researcher leading a team of scientists in England."
"I think there's a high chance that it will work based on other things that we have done with this type of vaccine," Sarah Gilbert, a professor of virology at Oxford told The Times of London. "It's not just a hunch and as every week goes by we have more data to look at. I would go for 80 percent, that's my personal view."
Gilbert added that if they can find places that haven't imposed a lockdown, "we will get our efficacy results very quickly."
America and Israel have also reported encouraging progress on a vaccine. And in the Netherlands and Australia, researchers are testing the effectiveness of the BCG tuberculosis vaccine developed in the 1920s (with more tests being scheduled for Africa, and experiments in the U.K.) UPI reports researchers in the Netherlands "have started recruiting 1,000 healthcare workers, who are at high risk for COVID-19, in eight hospitals who will receive either the BCG vaccine or a placebo."
The Times of London reports that the U.K. government "signalled that it would be willing to fund the manufacture of millions of doses in advance" if the results of professor Gilbert's research looked promising. "This would allow it to be available immediately to the public if it were proven to work.
"With ministers struggling to find a strategy to exit the lockdown, long-term hopes of a return to normality rely on a vaccine."
Gilbert added that if they can find places that haven't imposed a lockdown, "we will get our efficacy results very quickly."
America and Israel have also reported encouraging progress on a vaccine. And in the Netherlands and Australia, researchers are testing the effectiveness of the BCG tuberculosis vaccine developed in the 1920s (with more tests being scheduled for Africa, and experiments in the U.K.) UPI reports researchers in the Netherlands "have started recruiting 1,000 healthcare workers, who are at high risk for COVID-19, in eight hospitals who will receive either the BCG vaccine or a placebo."
The Times of London reports that the U.K. government "signalled that it would be willing to fund the manufacture of millions of doses in advance" if the results of professor Gilbert's research looked promising. "This would allow it to be available immediately to the public if it were proven to work.
"With ministers struggling to find a strategy to exit the lockdown, long-term hopes of a return to normality rely on a vaccine."
places that haven't imposed a lockdow...sure (Score:5, Insightful)
Brazil imposed a lockdown (Score:3)
It doesn't bode well for the country that they're turning to gangs to keep order though.
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When the Tohoku quake struck in 2011, and the ensuing tsunami and reactor meltdown, the first assistance on the scene was not government -- it was the Yakuza. They were on the streets handing out water bottles and letting displaced people sleep in their offices. But then they gladly handed control to the proper authorities once it was possible to do so.
The fact that crime syndicates can respond faster than government isn't a failure of government, it's a survival mechanism for organized crime. The problem i
Interesting trend in the worldwide stats (Score:2)
Now look at the equatorial and southern hemisphere countries. Sort it by number of tests per 1 million (to filter out countries not taking this seriously and not testing), and look at dea
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Plus if they all die in those two countries because they don't have access to the vaccine, who cares, right?
It doesn't work that way. If infection rates are higher in Brazil, then they should get the vaccine first. The efficacy of the vaccine can be tested much faster if more test subjects are exposed.
In fact, the utilitarian approach would be to intentionally expose the test subjects. That would likely cause a few deaths but would save tens of thousands of lives if it can move up the verification of the vaccine by even a few days.
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Kind of fascinating, but week 14 ended April 5th and Sweden's Coronavirus deaths doubled between then and now, to something like 870 now.
It'll be interesting to see what the weeks 15 and 16 reports look like.
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Sweden didn't lock down, either...
They will in the next two weeks or so. They're doubling every five days, so in two weeks they're going to be up to about 75k cases and 7k deaths -- in a country of 10M people. They'll soon have to admit that their current strategy is a failure.
New York Post and Times of London (Score:5, Insightful)
New York Post hasn't got the most stellar of reputations.
I hope it's true, but given the sources, I'm not holding my breath.
Anon because I've moderated.
6 months... (Score:2)
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Not if we maintain shelter-in-place lockdowns.
Covid kills. Poverty also kills.
A lockdown for a few weeks is a win because the Covid deaths prevented are more than the excess deaths from foregone economic activity and growth.
For a six month lockdown, the economic damage will be worse than the disease.
False dichotomy (Score:5, Interesting)
The real question is will our ruling class allow it, and will the working class just say "no, we're not letting a few hundred thousands or in the worst case millions die for you".
Re:False dichotomy (Score:5, Insightful)
the people out of work are in non-essential service jobs.
Plumbers, carpenters, and car mechanics are non-essential in the short-run. But in the long-run, they are essential.
Our civilization is more than capable of paying them to stay home for 6 months to a year while we get a vaccine.
We are already failing to do that. The $1200 distribution is not enough for most people to pay their bills, and huge numbers of people didn't even qualify for it.
Herd immunity without more deaths (Score:4, Interesting)
Your handle is rather offensive. Probably stupid to reply, but...
No, we can wait for the vaccine, in which case we don't need any more infections to achieve total herd immunity. If the goal is to preserve as many lives as possible, then it becomes clear that preventing infections is good.
But you are right that it becomes a question of resources. Aren't the Mormons supposed to keep a large supply of emergency food in their homes?
The problem here is that the people making the decisions think they are safe from Covid-19. In particular, Trump thinks he is so safe that he doesn't even need to muss up his makeup with a mask. Boris Johnson thought he was safe, too, and as long as he survives his bout with Covid-19 I'm sure he'll also rationalize away his shaking of hands. (But just because he's immune now doesn't mean Boris can't transmit SARS-CoV-2 to the second person he shakes hands with.)
If saving lives is the highest priority, then the economy should basically be shut down. For example, rent holiday. For another example, shut down the stock market. I don't find it amusing that a few people are making YUGE profits by gambling on other people's deaths. (However, I think it's only karmic payback for the people who are eating YUGE losses for losing those gambles.)
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If saving lives is the highest priority, then the economy should basically be shut down.
And you think shutting down the economy won't result in deaths? Millions have already filed for unemployment. How many more suicides will there be? How much extra stress that can cause more heart attacks? How many more people won't have enough food to survive? How many more people will turn to crime to make ends meet and end up murdering someone in the process?
Having nothing to say, why did he say nothing? (Score:2)
Easily responded to, but insufficient evidence of intelligent life to merit response.
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And if the virus mutates to something our immunity doesn't cover, we have something that can be adjusted to the new strain, much like flu vaccines.
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Interesting. The quickest vaccine development/testing so far has been the mumps vaccine.
It took 4 years to accomplish.
If the vaccine isn't tested properly, it's possible for vaccinated people to contract the disease and be worse off than unvaccinated people.
This sounds too good to be true.
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What we SHOULD be doing is installing Bernie as leader for life. I figure he has a good 2-3 years left in him! Let's take advantage of it!
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and only 0.3% more deadly
So these mass graves on Hart Island are all fake to ensure that the panic doesn't subside?
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Those mass graves is just NYC business as usual. What do you think happens with the masses of homeless, illegal immigrants and other criminals that go unclaimed as they die on a regular day?
They get buried on Hart Island one at a time, not in bulk.
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Re:6 months... (Score:5, Interesting)
COVID 19 is 100 times more infectious than the flu. 30-50% of the people who get it are asypmtonmanic. so while the lethality count is way lower than the current estimates show, at the same point in time if you do get it and go to the hospital your are 30% likely never to leave the hospital.
The problem is we don't have hospital staff to keep the hospitals running for the 7-10 days you need to be on the ventilator.
The lock down is about slowing the transmission of the virus down to a low enough level to buy time for both hospitals to not get swapped like they are in New York City where they are stacking the dead in refrigerated Trucks because there is no space for them elsewhere. as well as to give us 6 months to get us closer to a cure. The only one playing Media theater is Trump who likes to brag about ratings.
We are looking for effective treatments. we have been since December. China has literally tried everything including the malaria drugs Trumps likes to say, and all HIV drugs.
None have proven to be anymore effective than sugar tablets. If China had found it they would be saying we have the only cure/ vaccine and charging for it.
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R value isn't anywhere near 100x
Did you mean 100% more not 100x more?
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I know. 100 times? WTf? How on earth did that dumbass post get a 5?
Seriously, you guys are all fucking retards.
Re:6 months... (Score:4, Informative)
And the culture of the alleged U.S. administration accelerated the propagation of the coronavirus inside the U.S. and helped make it a net exporter of the virus.
Fake news (Score:2)
Trump said on March 7th, the USA would come up with a vaccine "very soon" and that the awesome USA is going to save failing South Korea. #fakenews #maga #trumpisdabestpresidenteva
Re:Fake news (Score:5, Informative)
Trump said on March 7th, the USA would come up with a vaccine "very soon" and that the awesome USA is going to save failing South Korea. #fakenews #maga #trumpisdabestpresidenteva
But before that he said "it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.".
And even before that he said "We have it totally under control. It’s going to be just fine."
But hey... his supporters don't care. They are cult members. We just took it out of context or something.
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Some....however, the Republicans in Congress know exactly what is Trump. They decided they could go along for the ride to pack the courts so it will be the 1950s in America once again. Less racial tolerance, more pollution, less women's rights, etc.
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Complete and utter nonsense. Sad that you have one of your fellow trolls responding to your pablum as well. By design, or under Putin's direction?
Re:Fake news (Score:5, Insightful)
The President can't do much in this case other than talk and offer support to Local and State governments when they ask for it.
I disagree. The President could have started (and can still continue) the preparation for the pandemic in a more active role. For example making sure the federal stockpile had all the equipment back when multiple agencies were projecting worse case scenarios. He can more actively coordinate with governors on their responses now. For example if the next hotpot is Louisiana and New York numbers starts to decline, moving the hospital ship to Louisiana, moving supplies like ventilators from New York, etc.
In terms of government officials that do not heed the warnings, while there may be little direct power the President has, he can still do a considerable amount. For example, Georgia's governor resisted a stay-at-home until April 3 but then re-opened the beaches. A President could put some political pressure on the governor to change his mind.
By the way, the Georgia's governor said he resisted stay-at-home orders because he was not aware that virus can spread asymptomatically. Bear in mind the CDC has headquarters in Atlanta, Georgie and has been warning of asymptomatic spread for months now.
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When was the President informed of the worst case, relative to late January when the WHO finally said "hey, this looks like it might be bad"?
National intelligence groups as early as January [washingtonpost.com] with the US Army making their assessment in February. [thedailybeast.com]
When was the President briefed? I don't know. The problem frankly is the President is an idiot and a liar. If he was briefed, I am not sure he understood the assessment. And if he was briefed, I'm sure he's going to lie that he was never briefed even if there was video of the briefing with him in it. One of Trump's former lawyers said that no one should ever meet alone with Trump because his story will ch
Wonder if they'll follow CNN and print retractions (Score:2)
> National intelligence groups as early as January [washingtonpost.com] with the US Army making their assessment in February. [thedailybeast.com]
That looks like the same thing CNN reported, then had to belatedly point out that the intelligence group in question denied the existence thereof.
Given that these reports hinge on random, anonymous rumors, I believe them just as much as other random, anonymous rumors from people with a long track record of flat-out lies.
I wonder if they'll even reach the low sta
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Bullshit. The alleged administration could have, were they not inept, formulated a set of coherent plans so the states weren't butting heads against each other. Instead we have Trump's dyspeptic gut putting his incompetent son-in-law in charge of screwing up whatever plans the government could have put together. They also spent the last 3 year hollowing out the Fed. Gov. so when they need to rely on experts, they have to beg them to come back and lend a hand.
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So the real thing should be are you just ignorant about the truth or are you trolling?
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Yeah, that Trump, what an asshole. Six months isn't "very soon" at all! I've been working hard on Reddit with Bernie Bros, Rei and other JavaScript programmer shitheads and we have determined that most people will die before Trump's vaccine is even out! He should get back in the lab.
The initial expert assessment was a vaccine was likely 18 months away from the start of the pandemic. Given that advice, you'd think that leaders would instead prepare for the pandemic that occurred. Actions like stockpiling on medical supplies, coordinating different government efforts, etc. And not do things like downplaying the risk, pushing "cures" that didn't exist, trying to blame it all on the Democrats somehow. You'd think a leader would do that.
Re:Fake news (Score:4, Interesting)
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No. I base my opinions on shithead JavaScript programmers from Slashdot.
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Damn leaders. If only we had Clinton II or Bernie.
They may not have prevented this. But they sure as fuck couldn't have a done a worse job.
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Yeah, that Trump, what an asshole. Six months isn't "very soon" at all!
Are you going for an insightful post? Normally you're such a dumb Trump supporter, but you're actually quite insightful. Trump is an arsehole, and six months isn't "very soon" when faced with a pandemic.
Timing (Score:2)
So the doctor I heard a couple of months ago say that it would be at least 9 months away wasn't too far off.
Do most vaccines take roughly the same amount of time to create? Are they that predictable?
Re:Timing (Score:4, Interesting)
I think they've got it down to a science now...
They come up with a new flu vaccine every year, in time to be mass-produced and waiting for you at the corner pharmacy before flu season starts. Granted, flu is different, and it's bound to be easier when dealing with closely related viruses. On the other hand, I suspect testing for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines will be on a considerably accelerated schedule.
Mod parent comment UP! (Score:2)
That's a very sensible comment, one of the best I've seen on Slashdot.
Most of the comments to his post show a lack of ability to think carefully.
In fact, the scientific background for making vaccines is VERY strong.
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Err...what about the virus being a novel virus is it that is escaping you?
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What about the difference between "novel" and "totally unlike anything we've seen" escapes *you*?
This is SARS-CoV-2; it's close evolutionary relationship to SARS-CoV-1 (formerly SARS-CoV) is a big part of why the molecular biology response to COVID-19 was so fast.
There was a lot of work that went into developing vaccines for SARS in the aftermath of its 2002 emergence. It never went past the preliminary stages because there hasn't been a SARS outbreak since, but we're not in completely uncharted waters.
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The "novel" in "novel coronavirus" is a blatant misnomer. It is novel only in that SARS-CoV-2 is slightly different from SARS-CoV
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I'm not clear what you think it is, magic or science.
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Do most vaccines take roughly the same amount of time to create? Are they that predictable?
There are already several candidate vaccines available. In the last decade or so, scientists have been inventing new ways to create vaccines.
The time consuming part is that to release the vaccine, you need to go through phase 1 testing to make sure the proposed vaccine won't kill anyone, and then go through phase 2 testing to make sure it actually works (and doesn't kill even a few people).
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There's multiple aspects of it. 1)Creating vaccine that is effective in humans and 2) Manufacturing enough doses. Different viruses and strains have taken different amounts of time. For H1N1 [cdc.gov], it took 3 months from first appearance to clinical trials and another 3 months to make the vaccine publicly available so 6 months total. However, H1N1 is a subtype of influenza which has a lot of work already done and yearly vaccines are created for new strains so a lot of infrastructure was already in place.
This new
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That is blatantly untrue. There is tons of extant research into SARS and related corona virii, which are all almost identical to SARS-CoV-2
This can't be right (Score:3)
We are continually bombarded with stories of how hydroxychloroquine is the be all and end all to covid-19 treatments and any talk of a vaccine is really just a codeword for Big Pharma to make huge profits.
I read it on Facebook where my friend's mother's sister's babysitter heard it from her dentist so it must be true.
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A vaccine and a treatment are two different things.
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BCG works for bladder cancer too (Score:2)
This stuff is very impressive. My dad is in total remission for many years now.
9-12 months from December (Score:3)
Figure that researchers in the PRC started working on a vaccine in December 2019 Vaccines for well-characterized influenza strains typically take 12-18 months to develop and distribute, however IIRC a workable vaccine for the Zika virus was ready 9 months after start of work (just in time for the virus to go back to wherever it came from, making the risk of vaccinating too high). On the other hand some viruses do not lend themselves to protection by vaccine, so that has to be considered also.
So if the PRC has been working full-speed since December, there is nothing inherently impossible about a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, and there are plenty of volunteers available for risky accelerated trials, the PRC could - potentially - have a vaccine ready between August and November 2020. Manufacturing in bulk, distributing, and administering are another issue.
Now, how willing would the PRC be to license that vaccine to the Atlantic nations? I can think of one in that category that is not on really friendly terms with China these days. Winning!
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plenty of volunteers available for risky accelerated trials, the PRC could
Oh, no doubt. But you forgot the quotes around "volunteers".
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I don't think there would be a problem. If you guarantee hospital care for anyone who volunteers, that substantially reduces the risk. People volunteer for dangerous military duty, this isn't any different.
I'd volunteer to be vaccinated and intentionally infected if they needed someone in my age group. I figure I have a 50% chance of getting it anyway, so I'm not increasing my risk by all that much.
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Still is depending on your choice and your view of the risk/reward ratio, though. Authoritarian regimes have no such constraints. If the Uyghurs are instrumental in a vaccine, though, I'd like to credit them for it. Of course, we'll never hear about it to be able to credit them.
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You do realize how non-anonymous, but indeed cowardly, you are in your persistent tediousness, right?
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So if the PRC has been working full-speed since December
Why would they have? The virus wasn't identified until mid January, and the government actively covered it up for 2 weeks so it was the end of January at the very earliest when anyone would have received funding or instruction to work on it.
Testing.. Testing.. Testing.. (Score:5, Insightful)
You have to test a lot of things here, I don't think 6 months is reasonable.
1. Initial safety - Can we safely administer it, and what are the contraindications for the new drug's use? How much is too much?
2. Effective therapeutic dose - How much is enough to get the desired result?
3. Long term safety and effectiveness?
The fist two are fairly easy and quick to do. The last one, takes a long time because you simply cannot rush that by running many tests in parallel.
I think six months may be a bit too quick, at least by CDC standards. Maybe we can forego the full term testing and justify the risks of not completing it, but that's almost going to take an act of congress...
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Given the scale of the emergency, I think it makes sense to vaccinate, then intentionally infect volunteers. Then to accept that there is some additional long term risk. Worldwide we are facing tens of millions of deaths - and a vaccine could drop that number way down. Its worth the risk
Also manufacturing (Score:2)
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Maybe we can forego the full term testing and justify the risks of not completing it, but that's almost going to take an act of congress...
At this point, Congress would be willing to do it.
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I'll let Big Pharma know that shithead "bobbied" from Slashdot doesn't think it is reasonable. Hopefully they can pass it onto the researchers. You should post your expert analysis to Reddit.
Never claimed to be an expert, but I do understand some of what's going on here. There are a lot of reasons I'm saying this:
Listening to the doctors about this, who *clearly* are saying that a vaccine is at least 18 months out from FDA approval under existing FDA regulations.
Researchers love to get their 15 min of fame by making newsworthy claims, which may or may not be achievable. They don't really care, they are chasing the research funding and what's more marketable than a COVID-19 vaccine right now
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I'll let Big Pharma know that shithead "bobbied" from Slashdot doesn't think it is reasonable. Hopefully they can pass it onto the researchers. You should post your expert analysis to Reddit.
That's great that you're such a cynic, but keep in mind that Big Pharma is primarily motivated by profit, and organizations like the CDC are (increasingly) motivated by political expediency. A vaccine that has a 10% chance of making a man's dick fall off 12 months after injection will likely get green-lit just so the economy can restart, because rich people need to get richer, STAT.
Pointing out such things isn't backseat-driving. It's just discussion among us non-decisionmakers.
Plebs gotta pleb, I me
Fuck anti-vaxxers (Score:2)
TESTING TAKES A YEAR (Score:5, Informative)
A Typical vaccine goes through 3-6 years of testing before it is released.
Assuming they drop ALL the bureaucracy, they should safely be able to get that down to 1 year, if we are testing a 'dead' version of the virus (rather than a weakened version). A live version without years of testing would risk horrible side effects on small populations (such as the zika virus affects pregnant woman)
Even then there would some risks, specifically:
What if the dead virus vaccine we test is given to someone with a current non-dangerous viral illness, and the dead vaccine parts get incorporated into the active non-dangerous viral illness, creating a hybrid half-covid, half normal flu virus. This has been shown to happen previously.
Is every country going to wait for the testing? Probably not. North Korea for example would be quite willing to simply give everyone the vaccine before they test it.
Will the US and other civilized countries wait for the vaccine to be tested for at least a year (rather than the standard 3-6 years)? That is debatable.
Remember, the decision will be made not today, when the virus has destroyed the country, but 6 months from now, when it has been largely defeated.
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Putting aside that so far we're batting zero on having a vaccine for any coronaviruses that are a problem for humans...
The actual best estimate based on history is "never, but thanks for playing."
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What if the dead virus vaccine we test is given to someone with a current non-dangerous viral illness, and the dead vaccine parts get incorporated into the active non-dangerous viral illness, creating a hybrid half-covid, half normal flu virus. This has been shown to happen previously.
Flu virus has eight separate RNA strands which have some capacity to mix-and-match in host cells, part of why it is so adaptable and we wind up with multiple strains in a single year. Coronaviruses have a single RNA strand. They are also very different viruses. There is no chance of a half-coronavirus, half-influenza virus ever developing.
We also have some other options for vaccines, such as priming the immune system to target part of the virus (such as an embedded protein or sugar), creating viruses which
And then, it may be 16 months away... (Score:4, Interesting)
It may also not materialize at all. Announcements like this one are exceptionally unprofessional and unethical. They may even endanger lives as they may lead to wrong decision making. (Not in the US though, the moron-in-chief has the making of wrong decisions covered all by himself...)
Make the announcements when you have something solid or get out of the medical field as your character makes you unsuitable to work in it.
I call over-optimistic bullshit. (Score:2)
Everything from people who do actual drug and vaccine development for a living is more like 12-18 months minimum from isolation of the virus to a vaccine being ready for large-scale use. They back that up with references to the timeline of development of actual vaccines. That 6-month guesstimate sounds to me like PR people trying to drum up business.
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1. They have presumably been at it since December. The six months measures from NOW, making the total more like nine to ten months. Not so crazy.
2. There is existing work from the little sister SARS-CoV-1 that can be, and undoubtedly already has been, used to bootstrap the process.
3. There are multiple such programs operating in parallel, by the very nature of international non-cooperation. They're not all taking the same angle, and some are taking more than one.
4. The annual flu vaccine is produced with le
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Unfortunately they've only recently (in the last 2-3 months) isolated the virus to the degree where they can start work on a vaccine. The work before that was to isolate and identify the virus.
The annual flu vaccine isn't something you should base time estimates on. There they aren't trying to come up with a vaccine for a new virus, they already have the virus identified and the base for a vaccine tested and proven, all they're doing is coming up with slight variations on that proven base for this year's mu
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How can anyone score this "insightful"? The poster doesn't even understand the difference between a "virus" and a "vaccine". Not to mention a failed jr-high level attempt at sarcasm. Sheesh slashdot the moderating population is in fast decline.
Re: Damn Trump! (Score:2)
People are stupid?
US has a vaccine that produces enough antibodies for a year of immunity. Likely this will be fast tracked out before fall.
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You're trying too hard.
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No...it stands for "Bernie Bro", not "loser". We Bernie Bros are winners at life.
Re: Damn Trump! (Score:2)
Winners at losing...
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I need the vodka to get through the expert analysis of the Slashdot JavaScript programmers here. I mean, bro, do you even know there are mass graves on Hart Island?
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I personally like where you are going with the thought of dividing 2 trillion dollars between every tax payer.
This is where it (or at least me) gets a bit weird. You know, it's probably a natural side effect of distancing myself from everybody for as long as we have been, and the fact that I probably shouldn't have cracked that last beer, but hey, not much else to do. =)
I think the problem with enabling everybody to put themselves in a better more sustainable position is that either bad actors or natural h
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You know that even if Bernie was elected in 2016, we still wouldn't have Medicare for All right now, right? And that it wouldn't have made any difference right now even if we did, because any COVID-19 illness *is* being paid for by Medicare right now?
Please enumerate a plan for getting Medicare for All through the Congress without destroying the rest of the country through brinksmanship bullshit like trying to attach it to a debt ceiling bill. As it turns out, the people that actually write laws and submi
Re:Damn Trump! (Score:5, Funny)
My guess is the bosses in the Kremlin are all dead. I haven't heard from them lately. My new boss calls himself "Boris", but he says he is from St. Petersburg. But St. Petersburg doesn't even exist anymore, so I am suspicious.
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My guess is the bosses in the Kremlin are all dead. I haven't heard from them lately. My new boss calls himself "Boris", but he says he is from St. Petersburg. But St. Petersburg doesn't even exist anymore, so I am suspicious.
No, St. Petersburg is still there, you’ve been drinking that cheap back alley Vodka again haven’t you? How many times do you have to be told that stuff will make you blind?
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shitheel.
DIAF
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Just as one cannot extrapolate the likely effects of Covid in a country which is unprepared from the effects in a country which is prepared, you cannot make reasonable estimates of whether people would have sex with someone else from your own experiences.