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Medicine Biotech United Kingdom

A Coronavirus Vaccine 'May Be Six Months Away' (nypost.com) 203

The New York Post reports that a COVID-19 vaccine "may be six months away, according to a researcher leading a team of scientists in England." "I think there's a high chance that it will work based on other things that we have done with this type of vaccine," Sarah Gilbert, a professor of virology at Oxford told The Times of London. "It's not just a hunch and as every week goes by we have more data to look at. I would go for 80 percent, that's my personal view."
Gilbert added that if they can find places that haven't imposed a lockdown, "we will get our efficacy results very quickly."

America and Israel have also reported encouraging progress on a vaccine. And in the Netherlands and Australia, researchers are testing the effectiveness of the BCG tuberculosis vaccine developed in the 1920s (with more tests being scheduled for Africa, and experiments in the U.K.) UPI reports researchers in the Netherlands "have started recruiting 1,000 healthcare workers, who are at high risk for COVID-19, in eight hospitals who will receive either the BCG vaccine or a placebo."

The Times of London reports that the U.K. government "signalled that it would be willing to fund the manufacture of millions of doses in advance" if the results of professor Gilbert's research looked promising. "This would allow it to be available immediately to the public if it were proven to work.

"With ministers struggling to find a strategy to exit the lockdown, long-term hopes of a return to normality rely on a vaccine."
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A Coronavirus Vaccine 'May Be Six Months Away'

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  • by OppMan29 ( 1270518 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @11:41AM (#59932712)
    Nicaragua and Brazil think its a joke..plenty of people there to test ... NO lock down
    • their gov't didn't, but the local gangs are, and it's just as effective if not more so.

      It doesn't bode well for the country that they're turning to gangs to keep order though.
      • by Mal-2 ( 675116 )

        When the Tohoku quake struck in 2011, and the ensuing tsunami and reactor meltdown, the first assistance on the scene was not government -- it was the Yakuza. They were on the streets handing out water bottles and letting displaced people sleep in their offices. But then they gladly handed control to the proper authorities once it was possible to do so.

        The fact that crime syndicates can respond faster than government isn't a failure of government, it's a survival mechanism for organized crime. The problem i

    • If you look at the global stats [worldometers.info] for deaths per 1 million (ignore cases, since that varies with extent of testing), New York is over 400, Spain and Italy at 300-350, Belgium and France over 200, UK and Netherlands around 150, U.S. just over 60 (which if you subtract New York would put it around 30), Germany just over 30.

      Now look at the equatorial and southern hemisphere countries. Sort it by number of tests per 1 million (to filter out countries not taking this seriously and not testing), and look at dea
  • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday April 11, 2020 @11:47AM (#59932726)
    Times of London is a News Corp (Rupert Murdoch.) Might as well be Faux New even if their reputation for factualness is okay..

    New York Post hasn't got the most stellar of reputations.

    I hope it's true, but given the sources, I'm not holding my breath.

    Anon because I've moderated.
  • That's more than the time it takes to reach herd immunity.
    • Not if we maintain shelter-in-place lockdowns. We can delay infection, and the resulting herd immunity, as long as we want. It's all a question of managing resources (economic, lives, etc.) and making choices.
      • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

        Not if we maintain shelter-in-place lockdowns.

        Covid kills. Poverty also kills.

        A lockdown for a few weeks is a win because the Covid deaths prevented are more than the excess deaths from foregone economic activity and growth.

        For a six month lockdown, the economic damage will be worse than the disease.

        • False dichotomy (Score:5, Interesting)

          by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @03:08PM (#59933340)
          the people out of work are in non-essential service jobs. Our civilization is more than capable of paying them to stay home for 6 months to a year while we get a vaccine.

          The real question is will our ruling class allow it, and will the working class just say "no, we're not letting a few hundred thousands or in the worst case millions die for you".
          • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @04:00PM (#59933488)

            the people out of work are in non-essential service jobs.

            Plumbers, carpenters, and car mechanics are non-essential in the short-run. But in the long-run, they are essential.

            Our civilization is more than capable of paying them to stay home for 6 months to a year while we get a vaccine.

            We are already failing to do that. The $1200 distribution is not enough for most people to pay their bills, and huge numbers of people didn't even qualify for it.

      • by shanen ( 462549 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @02:58PM (#59933304) Homepage Journal

        Your handle is rather offensive. Probably stupid to reply, but...

        No, we can wait for the vaccine, in which case we don't need any more infections to achieve total herd immunity. If the goal is to preserve as many lives as possible, then it becomes clear that preventing infections is good.

        But you are right that it becomes a question of resources. Aren't the Mormons supposed to keep a large supply of emergency food in their homes?

        The problem here is that the people making the decisions think they are safe from Covid-19. In particular, Trump thinks he is so safe that he doesn't even need to muss up his makeup with a mask. Boris Johnson thought he was safe, too, and as long as he survives his bout with Covid-19 I'm sure he'll also rationalize away his shaking of hands. (But just because he's immune now doesn't mean Boris can't transmit SARS-CoV-2 to the second person he shakes hands with.)

        If saving lives is the highest priority, then the economy should basically be shut down. For example, rent holiday. For another example, shut down the stock market. I don't find it amusing that a few people are making YUGE profits by gambling on other people's deaths. (However, I think it's only karmic payback for the people who are eating YUGE losses for losing those gambles.)

        • If saving lives is the highest priority, then the economy should basically be shut down.

          And you think shutting down the economy won't result in deaths? Millions have already filed for unemployment. How many more suicides will there be? How much extra stress that can cause more heart attacks? How many more people won't have enough food to survive? How many more people will turn to crime to make ends meet and end up murdering someone in the process?

    • And if the virus mutates to something our immunity doesn't cover, we have something that can be adjusted to the new strain, much like flu vaccines.

    • Interesting. The quickest vaccine development/testing so far has been the mumps vaccine.

      It took 4 years to accomplish.

      If the vaccine isn't tested properly, it's possible for vaccinated people to contract the disease and be worse off than unvaccinated people.

      This sounds too good to be true.

  • Trump said on March 7th, the USA would come up with a vaccine "very soon" and that the awesome USA is going to save failing South Korea. #fakenews #maga #trumpisdabestpresidenteva

    • Re:Fake news (Score:5, Informative)

      by MikeDataLink ( 536925 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @11:55AM (#59932758) Homepage Journal

      Trump said on March 7th, the USA would come up with a vaccine "very soon" and that the awesome USA is going to save failing South Korea. #fakenews #maga #trumpisdabestpresidenteva

      But before that he said "it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.".

      And even before that he said "We have it totally under control. It’s going to be just fine."

      But hey... his supporters don't care. They are cult members. We just took it out of context or something.

      • by gtall ( 79522 )

        Some....however, the Republicans in Congress know exactly what is Trump. They decided they could go along for the ride to pack the courts so it will be the 1950s in America once again. Less racial tolerance, more pollution, less women's rights, etc.

    • Actually what he said was that there was one that could be coming out relatively soon.
      So the real thing should be are you just ignorant about the truth or are you trolling?
  • So the doctor I heard a couple of months ago say that it would be at least 9 months away wasn't too far off.
    Do most vaccines take roughly the same amount of time to create? Are they that predictable?

    • Re:Timing (Score:4, Interesting)

      by hey! ( 33014 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @11:59AM (#59932786) Homepage Journal

      I think they've got it down to a science now...

      They come up with a new flu vaccine every year, in time to be mass-produced and waiting for you at the corner pharmacy before flu season starts. Granted, flu is different, and it's bound to be easier when dealing with closely related viruses. On the other hand, I suspect testing for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines will be on a considerably accelerated schedule.

      • Mod parent comment UP!

        That's a very sensible comment, one of the best I've seen on Slashdot.

        Most of the comments to his post show a lack of ability to think carefully.

        In fact, the scientific background for making vaccines is VERY strong.
      • by gtall ( 79522 )

        Err...what about the virus being a novel virus is it that is escaping you?

        • by hey! ( 33014 )

          What about the difference between "novel" and "totally unlike anything we've seen" escapes *you*?

          This is SARS-CoV-2; it's close evolutionary relationship to SARS-CoV-1 (formerly SARS-CoV) is a big part of why the molecular biology response to COVID-19 was so fast.

          There was a lot of work that went into developing vaccines for SARS in the aftermath of its 2002 emergence. It never went past the preliminary stages because there hasn't been a SARS outbreak since, but we're not in completely uncharted waters.

        • by nyet ( 19118 )

          The "novel" in "novel coronavirus" is a blatant misnomer. It is novel only in that SARS-CoV-2 is slightly different from SARS-CoV

    • Do most vaccines take roughly the same amount of time to create? Are they that predictable?

      There are already several candidate vaccines available. In the last decade or so, scientists have been inventing new ways to create vaccines.

      The time consuming part is that to release the vaccine, you need to go through phase 1 testing to make sure the proposed vaccine won't kill anyone, and then go through phase 2 testing to make sure it actually works (and doesn't kill even a few people).

      • Phase 3, mass production. Several new ideas floating around to speed up the process, but making 100's of millions of doses(just for the US, billions for the world) also takes time. Think months unless the new methods work.
    • by MikeMo ( 521697 )
      Assuming every thing goes well, the process is well-defined and the length of time required is pretty much set in the process. For a virus like this which is so similar to other Corona viruses, the time required for a vaccine is mostly in the testing.
    • There's multiple aspects of it. 1)Creating vaccine that is effective in humans and 2) Manufacturing enough doses. Different viruses and strains have taken different amounts of time. For H1N1 [cdc.gov], it took 3 months from first appearance to clinical trials and another 3 months to make the vaccine publicly available so 6 months total. However, H1N1 is a subtype of influenza which has a lot of work already done and yearly vaccines are created for new strains so a lot of infrastructure was already in place.

      This new

      • by nyet ( 19118 )

        That is blatantly untrue. There is tons of extant research into SARS and related corona virii, which are all almost identical to SARS-CoV-2

  • by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @11:55AM (#59932762)

    We are continually bombarded with stories of how hydroxychloroquine is the be all and end all to covid-19 treatments and any talk of a vaccine is really just a codeword for Big Pharma to make huge profits.

    I read it on Facebook where my friend's mother's sister's babysitter heard it from her dentist so it must be true.

  • This stuff is very impressive. My dad is in total remission for many years now.

  • by sphealey ( 2855 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @12:17PM (#59932870)

    Figure that researchers in the PRC started working on a vaccine in December 2019 Vaccines for well-characterized influenza strains typically take 12-18 months to develop and distribute, however IIRC a workable vaccine for the Zika virus was ready 9 months after start of work (just in time for the virus to go back to wherever it came from, making the risk of vaccinating too high). On the other hand some viruses do not lend themselves to protection by vaccine, so that has to be considered also.

    So if the PRC has been working full-speed since December, there is nothing inherently impossible about a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, and there are plenty of volunteers available for risky accelerated trials, the PRC could - potentially - have a vaccine ready between August and November 2020. Manufacturing in bulk, distributing, and administering are another issue.

    Now, how willing would the PRC be to license that vaccine to the Atlantic nations? I can think of one in that category that is not on really friendly terms with China these days. Winning!

    • plenty of volunteers available for risky accelerated trials, the PRC could

      Oh, no doubt. But you forgot the quotes around "volunteers".

      • I don't think there would be a problem. If you guarantee hospital care for anyone who volunteers, that substantially reduces the risk. People volunteer for dangerous military duty, this isn't any different.

        I'd volunteer to be vaccinated and intentionally infected if they needed someone in my age group. I figure I have a 50% chance of getting it anyway, so I'm not increasing my risk by all that much.

        • Still is depending on your choice and your view of the risk/reward ratio, though. Authoritarian regimes have no such constraints. If the Uyghurs are instrumental in a vaccine, though, I'd like to credit them for it. Of course, we'll never hear about it to be able to credit them.

    • So if the PRC has been working full-speed since December

      Why would they have? The virus wasn't identified until mid January, and the government actively covered it up for 2 weeks so it was the end of January at the very earliest when anyone would have received funding or instruction to work on it.

  • by bobbied ( 2522392 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @12:49PM (#59932968)

    You have to test a lot of things here, I don't think 6 months is reasonable.

    1. Initial safety - Can we safely administer it, and what are the contraindications for the new drug's use? How much is too much?

    2. Effective therapeutic dose - How much is enough to get the desired result?

    3. Long term safety and effectiveness?

    The fist two are fairly easy and quick to do. The last one, takes a long time because you simply cannot rush that by running many tests in parallel.

    I think six months may be a bit too quick, at least by CDC standards. Maybe we can forego the full term testing and justify the risks of not completing it, but that's almost going to take an act of congress...

    • Well H1N1 vaccine was available in six months; however, H1N1 is a subtype of influenza so more was known and less testing was probably required.
    • Given the scale of the emergency, I think it makes sense to vaccinate, then intentionally infect volunteers. Then to accept that there is some additional long term risk. Worldwide we are facing tens of millions of deaths - and a vaccine could drop that number way down. Its worth the risk

    • You can manufacture a few doses for testing in a few days. But manufacturing hundreds of millions of doses as we do for the annual flu vaccine takes months. Realistically, a vaccine that can be given to the general population is a year away at best.
    • Maybe we can forego the full term testing and justify the risks of not completing it, but that's almost going to take an act of congress...

      At this point, Congress would be willing to do it.

  • I can't wait for the anti-vaxxers to jump all over this one too.
  • TESTING TAKES A YEAR (Score:5, Informative)

    by gurps_npc ( 621217 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @02:04PM (#59933164) Homepage

    A Typical vaccine goes through 3-6 years of testing before it is released.

    Assuming they drop ALL the bureaucracy, they should safely be able to get that down to 1 year, if we are testing a 'dead' version of the virus (rather than a weakened version). A live version without years of testing would risk horrible side effects on small populations (such as the zika virus affects pregnant woman)

    Even then there would some risks, specifically:
    What if the dead virus vaccine we test is given to someone with a current non-dangerous viral illness, and the dead vaccine parts get incorporated into the active non-dangerous viral illness, creating a hybrid half-covid, half normal flu virus. This has been shown to happen previously.

    Is every country going to wait for the testing? Probably not. North Korea for example would be quite willing to simply give everyone the vaccine before they test it.

    Will the US and other civilized countries wait for the vaccine to be tested for at least a year (rather than the standard 3-6 years)? That is debatable.

    Remember, the decision will be made not today, when the virus has destroyed the country, but 6 months from now, when it has been largely defeated.

    • Putting aside that so far we're batting zero on having a vaccine for any coronaviruses that are a problem for humans...

      The actual best estimate based on history is "never, but thanks for playing."

    • What if the dead virus vaccine we test is given to someone with a current non-dangerous viral illness, and the dead vaccine parts get incorporated into the active non-dangerous viral illness, creating a hybrid half-covid, half normal flu virus. This has been shown to happen previously.

      Flu virus has eight separate RNA strands which have some capacity to mix-and-match in host cells, part of why it is so adaptable and we wind up with multiple strains in a single year. Coronaviruses have a single RNA strand. They are also very different viruses. There is no chance of a half-coronavirus, half-influenza virus ever developing.

      We also have some other options for vaccines, such as priming the immune system to target part of the virus (such as an embedded protein or sugar), creating viruses which

  • by gweihir ( 88907 ) on Saturday April 11, 2020 @03:32PM (#59933408)

    It may also not materialize at all. Announcements like this one are exceptionally unprofessional and unethical. They may even endanger lives as they may lead to wrong decision making. (Not in the US though, the moron-in-chief has the making of wrong decisions covered all by himself...)

    Make the announcements when you have something solid or get out of the medical field as your character makes you unsuitable to work in it.

  • Everything from people who do actual drug and vaccine development for a living is more like 12-18 months minimum from isolation of the virus to a vaccine being ready for large-scale use. They back that up with references to the timeline of development of actual vaccines. That 6-month guesstimate sounds to me like PR people trying to drum up business.

    • by Mal-2 ( 675116 )

      1. They have presumably been at it since December. The six months measures from NOW, making the total more like nine to ten months. Not so crazy.
      2. There is existing work from the little sister SARS-CoV-1 that can be, and undoubtedly already has been, used to bootstrap the process.
      3. There are multiple such programs operating in parallel, by the very nature of international non-cooperation. They're not all taking the same angle, and some are taking more than one.
      4. The annual flu vaccine is produced with le

      • Unfortunately they've only recently (in the last 2-3 months) isolated the virus to the degree where they can start work on a vaccine. The work before that was to isolate and identify the virus.

        The annual flu vaccine isn't something you should base time estimates on. There they aren't trying to come up with a vaccine for a new virus, they already have the virus identified and the base for a vaccine tested and proven, all they're doing is coming up with slight variations on that proven base for this year's mu

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