China Says Peak of Coronavirus Epidemic Has Passed (newsweek.com) 203
China's National Health Commission said on Thursday that the country has passed the peak of the coronavirus epidemic and that the number of new cases is declining. The officials noted that medical treatment work will remain the top priority and that work to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus will continue. From a report: The coronavirus outbreak began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province, in December 2019. China has dealt with more than 80,900 cases, 3,100 deaths and more than 63,000 recoveries, according to DXY.cn, which compiles data from the National Health Commission and regional government sources. Reuters noted that Chinese authorities recorded eight new infections in Hubei, which marks the first time since the outbreak that the province recorded a daily tally of fewer than 10. As the number of new infections fall, Hubei will lift certain travel restrictions and will allow some industries to resume production. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said in other countries. The outbreak has spread across the globe with more than 134,000 infections and more than 4,900 deaths, causing the World Health Organization on Wednesday to declare the outbreak a pandemic.
Trust (Score:2, Flamebait)
I trust the Chinese government only slightly more than I trust Trump. Why doesn't he just suspend the tariffs already? He doesn't need Congressional approval to do that, and it would be as good as any other tax cut he could propose.
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Trump lifted tariffs on face masks and medical equipment on March 6.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u... [wsj.com]
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I trust the Chinese government only slightly more than I trust Trump.
Indeed. The same can be said in other countries (that the peak of infections has passed).
Whether or not it is true in China or in other countries -- probably not.
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I trust the Chinese government only slightly more than I trust Trump. Why doesn't he just suspend the tariffs already? He doesn't need Congressional approval to do that, and it would be as good as any other tax cut he could propose.
Are you trolling for, "What's in _____ mind?" Sparking readers to speculate about the man's motivation? Equating a tax cut to trade imbalance? How many finanical measures address "capital flight" from VAT and Sales taxes? Trump's DealMaker branding, that, imo, must be admitted few rival, maybe Hearst, to enact tariffs by proportions as arbitrary as a town elder predating the yard sales of their minority neighborhoods, is Vampire version isolationism...
Re:Trust (Score:4, Interesting)
There were at least two riots in Wuhan last night(3/12), did you hear about them? Probably not. That was cut short first by them cutting main street power, then cutting cell services while people were live-streaming. If that's the "trust" you believe in, you're a far more naive on just what China is doing. Speaking of which, did you see the videos of the people screaming at Pooh Bear when he showed up? Or the pictures of soldiers in peoples apt's so they couldn't go out onto the balcony while he was there. Probably not. Youtube already scrubbed them, but you can find the videos on bitchute or liveleak.
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I can't believe wealthy Russian women would be that stupid. US citizenship is something you really don't want if you don't intend to live in the US, as the US taxes citizens even when not resident in the US.
So you child with US citizenship, that never lived in the US, will get arrested for not having paid tax in case they ever come to the US (happened to children of US soldiers stationed abroad before).
An getting rid of US citizenship is a lot of work and expensive (the fee for renouncing citizenship alone
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You're not required to pay taxes if you're a US citizen abroad. But you are required to file the taxes.
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Only 1% infected? (Score:5, Interesting)
We are hearing from world leaders and health authorities that much of the world's will get this new virus over the next couple of years, as happened with the 2009 flu pandemic.
But officially only 1% of Wuhan has been infected, and a far smaller proportion of the rest of China. And this is a peak?
So what is going on?
Will China continue to control the spread, or is that control dependent on unsustainable restrictions in movement? Will leaders have to chose between economic collapse and exponential spread? Is the plan to maintain social isolation until a vaccine is developed?
Can Italy follow China's success, or will we see million of infections in Italy (with the rest of Europe soon to follow) while China remains in the 100s of thousands?
Are we set for a years of social isolation, with a constantly overwhelmed healthcare system?
I'm having a lot of trouble resolving all the apparently conflicting claims. The projected numbers of ICU patients are terrifying.
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Will China ban the sale of wild animals, enforce such a ban, and separate species in markets at a safe distance?
If these steps are not taken, then we will be here in 5 or 10 years experiencing the same panic, and social and economic costs.
They already did months ago as part of their response to Covid-19.
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And they did it too during the SARS 2002/2003 outbreak, only to relax or reverse the bans over the years, and that is why we are back to the same scenario now ...
Re: Only 1% infected? (Score:2)
It's almost like people don't stay worked up into a panic forever...
Wild is not pure (Score:2)
China suffers from the same problem that people who prefer grass fed beef or wild caught salmon have. People think wild animals are more pure as they have lived in the natural forest rather than on dirty farms. Eating wild meat is considered a high status activity and wild meat is much more expensive than domesticated meat.
The same high status people who eat wild meat also buy luxury European fashion goods and attended Milan fashion week. Which is why Italy has become such an epicentrer 2 weeks after fashio
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I have no idea if you are joking, or serious. ...
If you are serious, then I feel sorry for all who believe in such conspiracy theories
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Yeah, that's the Fox "News" stance, apparently they claim that there's a super-secret bioweapons lab only 900 feet from the fish market where this started. How they supposedly know where there is a "secret" bioweapons lab in the middle of a major city in China that the CIA was unaware of isn't revealed. Of course it's worth keeping in mind that Fox has gone to court twice to claim that its programming is "entertainment" rather than actual news so they can just make shit up if they feel like it.
Re: Only 1% infected? (Score:2)
I feel sorry for poorly who blindly believe official propaganda, no matter how implausible.
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The number of cases in China is dropping as people are recovering or dying and the spread in contained by the oppressive restrictions. Another week or two of the restrictions should take care of all the remaining cases and they can lift the restrictions.
Then they just have to seal their boarders tighter than North Korea's and they'll be thriving internally as the world outside burns. Fre
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Will China continue to control the spread, or is that control dependent on unsustainable restrictions in movement? The number of cases in China is dropping as people are recovering or dying and the spread in contained by the oppressive restrictions. Another week or two of the restrictions should take care of all the remaining cases and they can lift the restrictions. Then they just have to seal their boarders tighter than North Korea's and they'll be thriving internally as the world outside burns. Free countries are going to have a lot more suffering and death than China, but no repressive restrictions -- yay!.
And false dilemmas of freedom and oppression are conflations of moral and cultural relativism, drop back to Politics is the Art of the Possible.
Re: Only 1% infected? (Score:2)
Boo freedom! Yay totalitarianism! The Mexican Beer virus is gonna kill us all!?!?!!1!
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Didn't you hear? China SAID the Pandemic was over. They had a day of celebration over it:
Wang Zhonglin, party chief of Wuhan, said that people in the city were not appreciative enough. It is necessary, "to carry out gratitude education among the citizens of the whole city, so that they thank (President Xi Jinping), thank the Chinese Communist Party, heed the party, walk with the party, and create strong positive energy."
Re:Only 1% infected? (Score:4, Interesting)
Wang Zhonglin, party chief of Wuhan, said that people in the city were not appreciative enough.
Ouch. Had to google you were not paraphrasing satire. That may have worked in 1960, but his words did not go down well in 2020:
https://www.theguardian.com/wo... [theguardian.com]
Wang’s statement was met with such scorn that the party affiliated paper that published his comments, the Changjiang Daily, appeared to remove the original article. Chinese media has reportedly been instructed not to publish the article, publish commentaries or mention the incident in anyway.
According to a translation from China Media Project, an internal directive said the report had invited “raging public opinion” on a level similar to that following “the death of a certain doctor,”
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Didn't you hear? China SAID the Pandemic was over. They had a day of celebration over it:
Wang Zhonglin, party chief of Wuhan, said that people in the city were not appreciative enough. It is necessary, "to carry out gratitude education among the citizens of the whole city, so that they thank (President Xi Jinping), thank the Chinese Communist Party, heed the party, walk with the party, and create strong positive energy."
Is this shocking to you? Is it malfeasance how other cultures engage collaboration and claims as to progess and success? You seem offended and compelled to warn others: If only people in another country understood America's exceptionalism by terms that might effect a liberation of their thinking, the world as one might be realized. And that's effect with an E.
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So what is going on?
You believed Chinese state media, that's what's going on. There were 16 new cases in China on Wednesday. For some reason 1/3rd of them were foreigners. Except in Beijing where 4/5th of them were foreigners.
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So what is going on?
You believed Chinese state media, that's what's going on. There were 16 new cases in China on Wednesday. For some reason 1/3rd of them were foreigners. Except in Beijing where 4/5th of them were foreigners.
They did not say "foreigners". Could well be Chinese returning from Italy, and the number of imported cases is in line with expectations.
It is the lack of new community cases that is surprising.
I don't believe the "known infections" numbers from anywhere represent actual infections. Nobody does. But nor do I believe in a grand conspiracy with thousands of bodies being dumped in a mass grave outside Beijing. Keeping such a thing quiet is not possible any more. (maybe in remote provinces or prisons)
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In china, every building or neighborhood has a ccp committee.
When there was an infection, you had a choice of quarantine center (bad idea) or being sealed in your resident with strips of paper tape. If you broke the tape, you got a warning- but after that you were involuntarily taken to the quarantine center.
The party member brought food and set it outside your residence and then sealed you back in. I've seen posts from people there saying they were under this kind of hard quarantine for 7 weeks.
That's
Re: Only 1% infected? (Score:2)
"we do have prison time and 100k fines for pretty much everything in Soviet America. But we lack the infrastructure to clothe ourselves, much less anything else"
And yet....... (Score:5, Insightful)
And yet there are multiple news outlets, including some from within China, that claim there is no "flattening out" and that the epidemic hasn't passed by any means.
Hmmm, who to believe? Surely the Chinese government would never lie to anyone, would they?
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Surely the Chinese government would never lie to anyone, would they?
Not unless you want to get hacked.
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Well China's official news source said there were only 5 new cases in Beijing yesterday. 2 Italians, 1 Belgian, 1 Spaniard, and a local. I believe the Chinese. They released one hell of a racist virus.
Why are you always so full of shit? (Score:2)
Why are you always so full of shit?
The same time that you complain of other people being unreliable sources.
Those cases were people returning from those countries. Nowhere does it say what nationality those cases were. You may have noticed Italy currently has 5x the number of cases per person than China. [worldometers.info]
So any random person from Italy is 5x as likely to have the virus. (Even before you consider the fact almost all the Chinese people with the virus are in Hubei and not Beijing)(even before considering Ch
Half true (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Half true (Score:5, Interesting)
This is the most likely explanation I have seen in this thread. The Chinese population are capable of withstanding a 7 week quarantine because of their way of life and the support their authoritarian state is capable of providing to their people and their businesses. This is just a fact. Their government is issuing 8 year interest free loans to businesses with holes in their books and they fed and looked after the people they locked down. Full blown capitalist systems are just not capable of doing the same things and may fare worse. Only time will tell.
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Re:Half true (Score:4, Informative)
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This is the most likely explanation I have seen in this thread. The Chinese population are capable of withstanding a 7 week quarantine because of their way of life and the support their authoritarian state is capable of providing to their people and their businesses. This is just a fact. Their government is issuing 8 year interest free loans to businesses with holes in their books and they fed and looked after the people they locked down. Full blown capitalist systems are just not capable of doing the same things and may fare worse. Only time will tell.
There are two parts to the Chinese government actions. The first is forced restriction of movement, for which economic systems are completely irrelevant. The key is a totalitarian government. Thus, such control over movement is problematic in non-totalitarian countries. The second part is support for services for those confined to their homes. This is an economic effort. Western governments have in the past been willing to spend huge sums of money for vast social programs. So, providing such services
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So, providing such services is possible in the West, assuming that the political systems approve such programs.
OOPS.
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...and they fed and looked after the people they locked down
Every Uyghur has a full belly and an empty body cavity?
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and the reason the spread has stopped is
Is because they said it did. According to their own figures there have been no new reported cases in 12 out of 16 provinces since *even before* the quarantine came into effect.
Additionally Beijing had 5 cases yesterday, some how they were 4 foreigners. That's a damn racist virus they are working with there.
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Those people were infected in other countries before they traveled to China. I don't see how that somehow makes the virus "racist".
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all your virus are belong to us (Score:2)
China:
all your virus are belong to us :-)
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Don't base your health decisions on gov. press (Score:5, Insightful)
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Individuals that have no reason to lie, making reports on the internet are far more credible than governments.
You were doing okay until that last sentence. Individuals on the internet are, on average, stupid and their posts about coronavirus are even less credible than the nonsense Trump has been spewing.
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You were doing okay until that last sentence. Individuals on the internet are, on average, stupid and their posts about coronavirus are even less credible than the nonsense Trump has been spewing.
I took it to mean that citizen journalists, as opposed to the mockingbird press or government mouth pieces, wouldn't necessarily have the same conflicts of interest.
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Almost everything you wrote is inaccurate or a flat out lie. China informed the WHO of the virus on December 31. They detected the first cases in December beginning and it took 2-3 weeks to realize this is something worth reporting. The eye-doctor who was called into the police station and censured about spreading rumors on social media instead of raising the alrm via proper channels were not arrested, only called into the police station and given a talking to. Any doctor who saw a new virus in the US and i
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It's obvious you have never been to China and have no idea what Chinese culture is actually like. The government has been supporting people and helping them on a level that puts most other countries to shame.
Did you not hear about that hospital they built in a week? That doesn't sound like being only "marginally interesting in the health of its own citizens".
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I'd be great with som international cooperation (Score:2)
As things get back to normal for the Chinese presumably they have a number of people, among them health care workers who are immune to corona and workers facing a global demand chock. I'd be great if we had some international solidarity going because neither corona nor the economy is going to get fixed soon.
Don't Believe China (Score:2)
Chen Quishi is still disappeared after a 24 day forced quarantine that was supposed to end 10 days ago.
He (and a few others) were exposing the actual shit going down, with video proof.
China has tens of millions infected, at least (and among them many dead).
Humanitarian Aid: Send your test kits to the USA (Score:5, Insightful)
The USA has third world like conditions for medical care of it's most vulnerable poor to middle class population and could urgently benefit from the generosity of the Chinese people in this time of need.
Please China, help a child in the USA and donate a test kit today.
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FTFY. Children are not vulnerable. Most victims are old people with diabetes and heart conditions.
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China has actually been doing that. Not to the USA as far as I know but for example both Italy and Spain have received media aid from China, and they sent experts to Italy to help with their efforts.
Unfortunately the USA is unlikely to accept any aid. I just hope that the UK isn't so silly when the time comes.
Re: Humanitarian Aid: Send your test kits to the U (Score:2)
That doesn't work very smoothly, does it?
We need something with more syllables than 'china' to match 'Obiwan Kenobi'.
How about Winnie the Pooh?
Some food for thought about Chinese numbers (Score:2)
According to China's own numbers:
a) Even before Wuhan was put under quarantine there was a stop in the rise of cases in 12 out of 16 provinces. I.e. before initiating quarantine measures China, a country with huge population density in major cities didn't see a rise in any cases. I call bullshit.
b) Based on history the virus was declining, right before China announced multiple 10s of thousands of cases in a single day. Then the numbers started declining again. That's not how viruses spread. I call bullshit.
And I have a bridge to sell you! (Score:2)
If there was any veracity to this, then why can't I get any of my shipments out of China? Why am I unable to book transit?
China's glass heart is laughable.
DUH! (Score:2)
Comment removed (Score:5, Interesting)
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I underestimated the effect but fortunately the people whose jobs it was in the civilized countries to deal with things dealt with it. Now we just face bringing every country up to the same level. Don't fuck around with fake travel bans, instead focus on the reality. Control of out
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The hospitals were planned for but they were not stockpiling materials for them. China is having a decades long building boom. It's incredible, when you travel around the whole country is just and endless string of building sites. They have so much production capacity that when they need to build a new hospital they just tell the factories to send over some stuff and a day or two later it arrives in volume.
There's just no way other countries can match that. It also explains why they were able to offer to bu
China doesn't release information. (Score:2)
It has passed in South Korea and is fading in Iran (Score:3)
Chine is over. The number of new cases per day is less than 20. South Korea had this under contol by 1000 cases and it's approaching a mall growth rate now. Iran is ust starting to shift to lower growth rates.
All other countries are still exponential.
But it's only over for china if they ban travel from the US.
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Chine is over. The number of new cases per day is less than 20.
Why am I having trouble with that number? China has 34 provinces, Wuhan is just one. Every one of those provinces is going to get infection rates roughly similar to Wuhan sooner or later, this is just how a pandemic works. We haven't seen those reports, so the current claim of decline is simply disinformation. Closer to the truth: the Chinese government now feels that getting the economy going again is more important than limiting infection rates, or telling the truth.
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Chine is over. The number of new cases per day is less than 20.
Why am I having trouble with that number? China has 34 provinces, Wuhan is just one. Every one of those provinces is going to get infection rates roughly similar to Wuhan sooner or later, this is just how a pandemic works. We haven't seen those reports, so the current claim of decline is simply disinformation. Closer to the truth: the Chinese government now feels that getting the economy going again is more important than limiting infection rates, or telling the truth.
That sounds pretty much like every government ever established.
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China shut Wuhan and Hubei down hard with people not even being allowed to leave home to buy food. The Army delivered food. This bought time for other provinces to put in checks and as a result other provinces did not get hit as hard.
If US had stopped all international travel in January till a rapid test was developed - one which could be administered to arriving passengers while they waited in immigration than US could have avoided the issues we are facing today. Instead while travel to China was stopped,
Re:It has passed in South Korea and is fading in I (Score:4, Insightful)
China shut Wuhan and Hubei down hard with people not even being allowed to leave home to buy food. The Army delivered food. This bought time for other provinces to put in checks and as a result other provinces did not get hit as hard.
Only one thing stops an epidemic: immunity. Immunity is only gained by being infected. No matter how aggressively a quarantine is enforced, it will never be absolutely perfect. In your scenario, the army will be infected sooner or later.
Indeed, the purpose of quarantine is to buy time. But that only reduces the infection rate, not its ultimate extent, because even at a reduced rate, every susceptible person is likely to be exposed sooner or later and, in the absence of immunity, infected.
I have no doubt that China managed to slow down the epidemic. However, because the rest of china is so much larger that the one province of Wuhan, it seems highly unlikely that the number of new cases has actually declined. This will only happen when the virus begins to exhaust the supply of new hosts to infect. So I believe that the Chinese government has simply decided to lie about the statistics from now on. And most probably, they have never been forthcoming about the real mortality rate.
Just put a marker in this post and fact check it a couple of months from now when we see what happened in the rest of the world. If it differs markedly from the Chinese story then we will know whether or not they managed to tell the truth this time.
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As a general rule of thumb, don't believe a single statistic that the Chinese government has touched in any way. This is not in any way specific to Corona-chan. It's all propaganda. Some numbers may actually be correct, when the correct numbers serve the interests of the Chinese government, but truth is not a goal. As it has become obvious that the Chinese government has sway over the WHO, it's best to take any Corona-related numbers from China with a grain of salt.
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As it has become obvious that the Chinese government has sway over the WHO
How is that obvious? The WHO is reliant on official government sources for reporting cases. That doesn't mean that the government has "sway" over the organisation, that's just a reflection of the incorrect numbers they are working with.
Re:Idiot (Score:5, Informative)
As it has become obvious that the Chinese government has sway over the WHO
How is that obvious? The WHO is reliant on official government sources for reporting cases.
You just answered your own question. The WHO is quite capable of talking directly to doctors and using scientific models to accurately estimate the growth of a disease. Instead, it deliberately repeated the Chinese government propaganda line, knowing it was propaganda. To the detriment of good early information about just how infections this thing really is. So as not to annoy the Chinese government.
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Yeah, but everyone in the WHO gives very much a shit about the Chinese governments money.
The WHO is too small to go online and talk to Chinese doctors and nurses? Wow, that's odd. But if they are simply going to repeat chinese propoganda uncritically do you not think they have a duty of care to inform everyone where their information is sourced from? And perhaps even tell people to take it with a grain of salt considering the compeltely untrustworthy, biased and corrupt the source is? Because if you just pl
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Racism is not Insightful (Score:2, Insightful)
How did this dreck of a comment get rated Insightful.
If US govt had paid attention to Chinese data in beginning of February we would not be in the mess we are in today
Racism will kill us all
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You must be new around here. Or considering the UID, your real name must be Rip Van Winkle.
Re:Racism is not Insightful (Score:5, Informative)
It's not racism, it's a problem with Chinese culture, or perhaps communist culture in general. Image goes before anything else, especially the truth.
Re:Racism is not Insightful (Score:4, Insightful)
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I was honestly saying the same thing just yesterday. I'm waiting to hear reports from Korea or Italy about dwindling numbers of new cases before I breathe (a sigh of relief).
Re:Idiot (Score:4, Informative)
Except that this guy who was actually there [nytimes.com] saw what they were doing, and saw the case count and hospital load go from overfull to empty beds due to the policies and procedures they enacted.
Yes, the government lies. But when third party observers back up what the government says, it looks like less of a lie. Now contrast that with the message coming from the White House where only the willfully ignorant would agree, and we have something to think about.
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The rate of new cases has already passed the inflection point... FOR CHINA.
Notice how the inflection point in China was passed before the quarantines even came into effect? Viruses don't work like that. Government reporting works like that but viruses don't. 80000 cases is not the inflection point for a country of 1.4bn people.
Quarantine... (Score:2)
80000 cases is not the inflection point for a country of 1.4bn people.
It can be if you are an authoritarian state and lock that shit down tight.
Is your country under quarantine yet? Why not?
Re: Idiot (Score:2)
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The entire country of India is reporting 80 cases and schools have been closed in Delhi which has reported 1 case.
Silicon Valley has 80 cases and schools are still open
Either there is under reporting in India or the Santa Clara County department of Health has a death wish.
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Not unless we enact the same policies as China to prevent and mitigate. By the time China was in the infection count that the US has, they had already locked down Wuhan and were starting to implement social distancing nationwide, and were building new hospitals and isolation wards.
We're busy panic purchasing toilet paper. This thing is going to go rampant through the US because our government can't get it's fucking act together. Completely unprepared, and a pathological aversion to scientists and experts
Corollary (Score:2)
That would imply that the virus was much, much more widespread than anyone is telling us.
Which also would imply the death rate is vastly lower than they were telling us.
So I'm not sure that's accurate, since some places (like Italy) have pretty good testing but are also seeing rather high death rate.
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Which also would imply the death rate is vastly lower than they were telling us. So I'm not sure that's accurate, since some places (like Italy) have pretty good testing but are also seeing rather high death rate.
Even if you discard China as a credible source entirely there's a lot of weird data. South Korea is also reporting an extremely much lower death toll than Italy. A lot of the countries I would expect to be in trouble due to poor health care systems are not. Maybe it's genetic, maybe it's the climate, maybe it's different strains but overall the data doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
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Data is still sparse, but COVID seems to fade quickly in warm climates. Vietnam and Thailand had a few cases but it didn't spread. Hawaii had an infected Japanese couple spend a week on Oahu and Kauai without infecting a single other person.
In warm climates, people spend more time outdoors. They also leave windows open and fans running.
If this pattern holds, that means COVID may disappear in the Northern Hemisphere when summer arrives.
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Let's see how it spreads in Australia before jumping to that conclusion. (or South Africa, or Brazil).
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Data is still sparse, but COVID seems to fade quickly in warm climates. Vietnam and Thailand had a few cases but it didn't spread. Hawaii had an infected Japanese couple spend a week on Oahu and Kauai without infecting a single other person.
In warm climates, people spend more time outdoors. They also leave windows open and fans running.
If this pattern holds, that means COVID may disappear in the Northern Hemisphere when summer arrives.
Sparse...data...and selective bias as to the variables and their coefficients (longer than Drake's Formula) for contagion.
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I think in the South Korea case, they have a much better detection rate than any other country. The death rate looks low, because they have gone all out on testing. Other countries will have a lot higher rate of undetected cases in the community. Italy has an aging population (but so do Japan and South Korea) which may be pushing their death rate higher, but the way the numbers exploded there suggests that the virus was already widespread in the community.
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Your actual death toll is influenced by many different factors. The age of your population and how well your medical infrastructure can handle the sick will sway things a lot. Many of the Asian countries were hit by SARS so they had a lot of experience preparing for something like this. By acting early and getting ahead of the epidemic, you can drastically reduce the rate of infection and avoid overburdening your health systems. This is why many of the Asian countries have around 0.5% to 1% death rates.
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When you reach a point where doctors have to pick and choose who gets to live and die because you don't have enough machines for the extremely sick, your mortality rates jump.
The word is triage. Medium readers were not raised on M*A*S*H*. "Flattening the curve" making the rounds was an episode in which Col. Flagg (an intelligence officer) rolled into camp with mortality projections and, sanctimoniously pleased upon finding their confirmation, revulsed the dedicated surgeons who strive to save one life at a time no matter the odds.
The writers were inspired by the Pentagon Papers, but prior to the release of classified files describing Bletchley Park having broken Enigma but forc
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apparently there are also different strains. One theory is that the aggressive measures that took place in China caused a selective pressure for the virus to mutate to a less virulent form.
South Korea got this version; whereas Italy got corona-chan-classic. (or so the thinking goes)
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Italy's main problem is their population is old. They are, IIRC, the European country with the highest average life span. Then the virus broke out among the elderly population instead of among the young like it has in most other countries. This all skews the numbers.
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If your country was next to the Norks you might find it prudent to prepare for a variety of disasters.
Re: Corollary (Score:2)
The problem is you can't boil this down to a single number and then cook that number to get the conclusion you want. If there are far more cases than even epidemiologists thought, sure the death rate is lower but ALSO the transmissibility is CORRESPONDINGLY higher. That would be bad news.
The truth is both those numbers matter, are interrelated and to some degree are within our control.
If we can slow the rate of transmission the death rate will be lower. The thing epidemiologists are hoping is to limit the p
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Re: (Score:3)
there's a lot of non-obvious cases that just aren't even registering.
Well, that depends. Recent news is that there actually *isn't* that many non-obvious cases as the CDC not only believes asymptomatic cases to be rare -- it even believes that a majority of currently asymptomatic cases to go symptomatic after a period of time. Then they will join the cohort of registered cases, and seeing as the most recent data from the Diamond Princess (the largest somewhat exhaustive sample we have of an infected population) somewhat counter-intuitively shows that the vast majority of the
Re: (Score:2)
Flu kills about 8000 Americans each year, Covid-19 appears to have a death rate about 20 times worse than flu. This implies that if Covid-19 is allowed to spread like the flu then 160,000 Americans would die. Things will need to be done to reduce the spread of Covid-19 or very high levels of deaths will result. The other problem is that about 20% of the detected cases appear to be sick enough to need support in hospitals and this is much higher than the 2% death rate figure I used. The problem is that hospi