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EU Medicine United States

Europe Is Now the 'Epicenter' of the Coronavirus Pandemic, WHO Says (cnbc.com) 195

Europe has become the new epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic as cases in China slow and the deadly coronavirus runs through Italy and nearby countries, World Health Organization officials said Friday. CNBC reports: "More cases are now being reported [in Europe] every day than were reported in China at the height of its epidemic," WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news conference at the organization's Geneva headquarters. WHO officials declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on Wednesday as the virus spreads rapidly across the world from Asia to Europe, the Middle East and now parts of the United States.

"When the virus is out there, the population has no immunity and no therapy exists, then 60% to 70% of the population will be infected," German Chancellor Angela Merkel told a news conference in Berlin on Wednesday, according to Reuters. The country has a population of more than 82 million. Italy currently has the most cases outside of China with at least 15,113 infections, followed by Spain at 4,334, Germany at 3,156 and France at 2,882, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Other countries in Europe are seeing cases soar. Switzerland currently has 1,125 cases, followed by Sweden at 809, the Netherlands at 804 and Denmark at 788. The United States had at least 1,701 cases as of Friday morning, according to Hopkins.

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Europe Is Now the 'Epicenter' of the Coronavirus Pandemic, WHO Says

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  • by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @04:51PM (#59827842)

    Hey, where are all the people saying Trump was stupid to block travel from Europe...

    Why it's almost like he is busy talking to high level leaders across the world and various scientists, instead of you armchair assholes!

    • by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @04:55PM (#59827852)

      Forgot to add, the whole reason why Europe is so much worse off, most countries there did not block travel from China as early as the U.S. did. Of all actions a country could take, that was probably one of the most crucial early on (or at least that's what the official numbers to date tell us).

      • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

        by Anonymous Coward
        "Better to die of a Chinese virus than be called racist by the communist Chinese media" - the average European
      • by KixWooder ( 5232441 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @05:07PM (#59827910)
        It only takes one single person to infect an entire country. No amount of travel restrictions will stop the spread in the US.

        I work in clinical healthcare, in the Midwest, and we already have at least 20 cases that aren't being officially reported yet. There are hundreds if not thousands walking around that have no idea that they are carrying and spreading Covid-19.
        • by Lonng_Time_Lurker ( 6285236 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @05:35PM (#59828042)

          Shouldn't you officially report them ?

          Still, slowing the virus spread is a good idea, is it not ?

          • by WindBourne ( 631190 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @07:42PM (#59828512) Journal
            blocking ppl from coming here will slow NOTHING. That is a waste of effort.
            Instead, we need to postpone ppl from visiting retirement homes (esp. ones that have been to China or any location that is active).
            Need to postpones large gatherings, such as concerts, sport events (arghhhh. I miss the avs).
            Stop school temporarily. Once open, consider the idea of going virtual. etc. etc.
            • blocking ppl from coming here will slow NOTHING. That is a waste of effort. Instead, we need to postpone ppl from visiting retirement homes (esp. ones that have been to China or any location that is active).

              WindBourne logic.
              Stopping infected people at the old folks home = good.

              Stopping infected people at the border = bad.

            • blocking ppl from coming here will slow NOTHING

              Why? I doubt it's a sufficient step but it certainly seems a useful one. Why are you suggesting it won't slow anything? What's the reasoning behind that?

        • by lgw ( 121541 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @05:36PM (#59828044) Journal

          Sigh, why must we always have this discussion about any kind of security. The point of any kind of security is not 100% protection, it's to slow down the attacker, perhaps until he gives up. Or, in this case, to spread out the infections over a large time window, so that people who will need a ventilator to survive will have one available.

        • by guruevi ( 827432 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @05:41PM (#59828052)

          If you work in healthcare you should know, the point is not to stop the spread, it's to limit and slow the spread. If you are going to have thousands of infections, as the Trump administration has been saying all along, it's better to spread those thousands over a longer period so your systems can deal with the issues. No country is prepared to deal with 10%+ of the population sick at once.

        • by KixWooder ( 5232441 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @05:43PM (#59828058)
          They are preliminarily tested and positive as we have our own in-house testing. We can't report it until the CDC says we can.
          • by Z00L00K ( 682162 )

            So it looks like the CDC is slower than a turtle in reacting to potential disease spreads.

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by AHuxley ( 892839 )
          Re "No amount of travel restrictions will stop the spread".. the idea was to slow the spread of wuflu.
          Give nations with no wuflu more time to get ready.
          No accept random sick people in from EU nations quicker.
          Travel restrictions worked well in parts of Asia vs failed EU nations like Italy that stayed open to the world.
        • by sexconker ( 1179573 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @05:54PM (#59828104)

          It only takes one single person to infect an entire country. No amount of travel restrictions will stop the spread in the US.

          I work in clinical healthcare

          Well, you shouldn't.

          If you don't understand that the fundamental issue here is about SLOWING the spread so we can respond to it, then you're unfit for whatever job you have "in clinical healthcare".

        • by makomk ( 752139 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @06:03PM (#59828156) Journal

          All the countries that have managed to hold the coronavirus back so far - places like Taiwan and Singapore - have relied on both travel restrictions and aggressive contact tracing, testing, and quarantining of foreigners with potential symptoms and their direct contacts. Just one of those approaches alone isn't enough. Unfortunately China and the WHO persuaded Europe to not restrict travel when it mattered, whilst the US screwed up their testing program and took too long to fix it.

          • After the crisis is over, there need to be some explanation as to WTH happened with the test bungling.
            • It was unprofitable to hand them out for free? Duh?

              Not to mention, if you don't test, you can always say that you have no known cases. Plausible deniability goes a long way.

          • Unfortunately China and the WHO persuaded Europe to not restrict travel when it mattered

            That's not the cause of the major spread in Europe. Europe has seen such a skyrocketting spread because it hit in the middle of carnival combined with the middle of school holidays. Pretty much every city in Europe hosted a big germ fest. A single case breaking quarantine (which would have happened even with the travel ban as shown by the USA which jumped on the opportunity to ban travel to China) is more than enough if your entire continent is in the street holding hands and kissing each other while dresse

            • Pretty much this. If this had happened during Thanksgiving and Black Friday, it would very likely look the other way around.

        • by Z00L00K ( 682162 ) on Saturday March 14, 2020 @01:35AM (#59829200) Homepage Journal

          I see that the difference in number of reported cases in the US compared to Europe is the health care system. The tip of the iceberg is smaller but the part we don't see is larger in the US.

      • by gmack ( 197796 ) <gmackNO@SPAMinnerfire.net> on Friday March 13, 2020 @05:15PM (#59827948) Homepage Journal

        Forgot to add, the whole reason why Europe is so much worse off, most countries there did not block travel from China as early as the U.S. did. Of all actions a country could take, that was probably one of the most crucial early on (or at least that's what the official numbers to date tell us).

        Italy enacted a ban on travel from China 4 days before the US did and it was more comprehensive than Trump's ban. They still got hit hard. On that topic, I'm very worried that the main difference between the US and Europe is that the Europeans have more comprehensive testing in place and so have a much better idea of their numbers.

        • by Kjella ( 173770 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @05:56PM (#59828116) Homepage

          Italy enacted a ban on travel from China 4 days before the US did and it was more comprehensive than Trump's ban. They still got hit hard. On that topic, I'm very worried that the main difference between the US and Europe is that the Europeans have more comprehensive testing in place and so have a much better idea of their numbers.

          I don't think we've nearly understood the scope yet. Here in Norway they're currently counting 995 cases, of which 377 are traced to Austria. But Austria has only reported 302 cases, which doesn't make any sense. If we got hundreds from them, there must be many thousands down there. So far we've tried to test and contain the spread, now they've given up that and called for home quarantine where only those who develop serious symptoms or work in healthcare get tested - it's no longer feasible to test every known contact. What it means is we had fairly clean data in the beginning on the lightly infected, and there's a lot of them. People who weren't really feeling sick, they just found the virus because they were tested as a contact. Which means it's going to be hard to put a cap on this just through medical treatment, we'll have to reduce contact enough that it fizzles. But for something this infectious, that's going to be tough.

          • by Teun ( 17872 )
            Apparently you have no clue about how a virus spreads.
            You need only one person to come back from Austria while infected to infect many others once home.
            • by Kjella ( 173770 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @07:35PM (#59828472) Homepage

              Apparently you have no clue about how a virus spreads. You need only one person to come back from Austria while infected to infect many others once home.

              No, I'm talking about lots of ski tourists returning from Austria (going to the Alps for skiing during Winter holidays is a pretty big thing, very bad timing for us) each with their own infections dotting the map. We also have 127 infected from Italy. So far we've tracked "only" 151 domestic infections and 182 of unknown origin, but we know it's spreading in the population right now so that number will go up.

          • I don't think we've nearly understood the scope yet.

            We can't understand the scope. Testing in most countries is poor by policy. I've been sick since Las Falas fireworks with the correct symptoms for COVID-19, my government's response? "We only test if you've been to Italy, S.Korea, China, Iran, or if you end up with pneumonia in hospital. Go home get some bed rest." Do I have COVID-19 or the common cold? I won't know as I clearly am not in the only 20% of people who actually end up with severe response to the virus.

        • by makomk ( 752139 )

          Italy only banned direct flights from China, which meant that everyone could just fly in via other cities in Europe and Italy no longer had a record of where they'd came from. It was a really terrible idea. Trump's ban and the ones that've worked elsewhere covered everyone who'd been in China in the past 14 days. Also, since there's no real border control between Schengen countries, it's about the equivalent of say Texas banning travel from China - the virus will just hit the next state over and spread acro

        • by Tom ( 822 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @06:58PM (#59828348) Homepage Journal

          the Europeans have more comprehensive testing in place

          "Europe" is a very diverse place. Different countries have different rules and approaches. Many countries at this time test only cases already suspected of having been infected. That means a lot of cases with no or mild symptoms are still undetected.

          There are also a number of anomalies. The death count in Germany is one order of magnitude lower than anywhere else in the world, including nearby countries with very similar standards of technology and healthcare. That's certainly a statistical anomaly and not a real difference.

          We're still in the middle of it all. The hockeystick is pointing upwards, the important question is at which point the exponential growth stops and things start levelling out. China reached that point with measures that are impossible in Europe, both by law and by culture they are impossible to enforce so strictly.

          • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

            by buravirgil ( 137856 )

            We're still in the middle of it all. The hockeystick is pointing upwards, the important question is at which point the exponential growth stops and things start levelling out. China reached that point with measures that are impossible in Europe, both by law and by culture they are impossible to enforce so strictly.

            Impossible untll such time it's not-- that's quite a modifier, impossible. China's measures are not monolithic, but rank enterprise and activity by risk. Their implementation is comprehensive and measured (given degree).

            Contagion is a word used to give emphasis to both the pathogen's characteristics and as equally to the conditions and circumstances of the hosts' behaviors to aid or diminish a pathogen's advance. I am too often reading opinion skewed toward a misgiving that the conditions and circumstances

            • by Tom ( 822 )

              Impossible untll such time it's not-- that's quite a modifier, impossible.

              You will not be able to forcefully confine people to their appartments for a month in Europe. Among other things, we simply don't have the necessary infrastructure to supply everyone with daily necessities. China managed to do exactly that. The European solution is to tell people to stay home and close all shops, but keep supermarkets open so people can supply themselves.

              These measures certainly will be effective - but less so than complete isolation.

              • by buravirgil ( 137856 ) <buravirgil@gmail.com> on Saturday March 14, 2020 @01:41AM (#59829210)

                You will not be able to forcefully confine people to their appartments for a month in Europe. Among other things, we simply don't have the necessary infrastructure to supply everyone with daily necessities. China managed to do exactly that.

                STOP conflating enforced quarantine with advisory quarantine. The former was applied in Wuhan and two of its closest cities, the latter to the remainder of the country. China's quarantines are not monolithic, but rank enterprise and activity by risk. Their implementation is comprehensive and measured (given degree) over time. For example, the initial work stoppage excepted all enterprise dealing with food no matter the size-- small business owners or corporate-- to prevent panic hoarding. Two weeks later, the first exception I saw unrelated to food were hair salons. Next were hardware stores...on and on...until a franchise shopping mall that emphasizes fashion is open-- with reduced evening hours of operation.

                Quarantines were, nor are still, a binary-all-clear implementation of social distancing. There are no bars or restaurants (take-out only) open throughout the country because it is unnecessary congregation.

                China demonstrated an enforced quarantine of its "hot region", Hubei province, and advisory quarantine for the whole nation contained, for now, this pathogen.

                Variables of latency, persistence, and transmissibility (suspension in air, fomites), and, gratefully, no known mutations to have made children as vulnerable, are all factors for which China's quarantines (still in effect) apply graded, incremental measures that avoided panic and hoarding.

                READ AGAIN: Contagion is a word used to give emphasis to both the pathogen's characteristics and as equally to the conditions and circumstances of its hosts' behaviors to aid or diminish a pathogen's advance.

      • by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @07:51PM (#59828558)

        Wow ignorant much? The reason Europe is worse off is because a virus spread in the middle of festival season / winter season. Half the continent went out, got smashed, and boinked strangers while wearing fancy dress during Carnival. The other half all flocked to the Italian alps for some fresh powder. The virus hit Europe literally just as school holidays started causing even more public congregations. And those people not wearing fancy dress or carving up the snow were most likely setting a city on fire for one of the many lit festivals further south like Las Fallas.

        The USA proved quite well that blocking travel did fuck all. It only takes one case to break quarantine.

        While we're addressing your ignorance, come back when you:
        a) have tested even a small fraction of the people Europe has, and
        b) when Trump actually bans travel from Europe, because presently he has only banned Europeans, and viruses don't give a fuck if you're a European or a US citizen (who are free to travel from Europe to the USA if they wish) when it comes to crossing borders. Trump's not stupid to block travel from Europe, he's just stupid period.

      • Forgot to add, the whole reason why Europe is so much worse off, most countries there did not block travel from China as early as the U.S. did.

        ...and yet Canada did not block travel to China and we have about the same cases per population as the US. Clearly blocking travel from China is not the cause of the difference.

    • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @05:06PM (#59827900)

      Hey, where are all the people saying Trump was stupid to block travel from Europe...

      Right here. Trump was stupid to block travel from Europe.

      Let's do some math: There are about 30,000 known cases in Europe, The EU has a population of over 500 million. So that is one out of every 15,000 people. So if 100,000 people per day arrive on flights, then that is about 7 cases per day.

      Since the US already has thousands of cases, and likely thousands more undiagnosed (since America is doing such a pathetic job of testing), that is negligible.

      Also, flights go both ways, so we may be sending as many to Europe as we receive, making the ban a wash.

      The ban is a stupid political stunt to make the public think Trump is "doing something" about the problem.

      • The WHO says Europe is now the epicenter https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/1... [cnbc.com]

        • by Jzanu ( 668651 )
          For now, because we are actually testing. In 6 weeks the epicenter of coronavirus infections will be in the USA and Russia as the undetected cases are exposed in increased mortality.
    • by Freischutz ( 4776131 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @05:07PM (#59827906)

      Hey, where are all the people saying Trump was stupid to block travel from Europe...

      Why it's almost like he is busy talking to high level leaders across the world and various scientists, instead of you armchair assholes!

      The US is a couple of weeks or so behind the Europeans in the spread of this epidemic just like the Europeans were a few weeks behind China. China is now getting some kind of handle on the pandemic and so will Europe. When that happens the epicentre will shift to the US. Trump has been ignoring the Covid-19 problem (he's good at that), he has defunded the CDC to pay for his tax cuts, he has neglected to adopt anything even close to the measures they have employed in the EU or Asia. Americans have about two or three weeks before the epicentre boot is on their foot.

      P.S. If armchairs in America have assholes, do you connect them directly to the sewage system or do you guys still use those old fashioned chamber pots to deal with the mess they make?

      • I don't think Europe (let alone the US) has the political will and capital to impose the kind of quarantine measures it took for China to get a grip on their outbreaks.

        Downside is, the Chinese are still in the phase of the little dutch boy with his finger in the dyke. As soon as they relax those restrictions, it'll explode all over again.

        Chinese and European cities are (by and large) much more compact and densely populated than those in the US, I'd imagine it easier to spread in those circumstances.

    • Yeah, Trump is a genius. (cough) (no, it's not COVID-19)

      Now if only he can keep Americans from spreading the virus to other countries we will give him due credit.

    • Actually, he WAS stupid to block travel from Europe.
      1) the bug is already here and spreading fast. As such, blocking travel from europe will not help much.
      2) why did he not block UK? Oh yeah. He has a golf course there.

      He was smart to stop the travel last month from China, Iran, and Italy, BUT, at this point, it no longer matters. We need to focus on simply slowing things down here. Blocking others from coming here will do NOTHING.
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      There is a real crisis and people like you do politics. Despicable.

    • Making the damn ban pointless!.

      Yeah, your "Europe not important" strawman (which nobody ever said) is pathetic, and you're an overconfident moron of 0.67 Trumps (the new unit of overvonfident moronity).

      Hell, you can't even fucking tell the EU amd Europe apart!

    • by samkass ( 174571 )

      Does anyone actually believe the US numbers?? Switzerland is a country of 8M people and does 2000 tests a day. The CDC did 77 tests all of last week.

      Germany has the lowest Coronavirus death rate of any country in the world, in part due to aggressive testing rather than outright early travel bans. They also prioritize elderly care, which is part of the reason they were so slow to close schools-- many schoolchildren get taken care of by grandparents when there is no school while the parents have to work.

      In It

      • Unless they already are and just have artificially low numbers due to a staggering number of unreported cases.

        We'll know in a few weeks. If Americans drop dead like flies, they learened from the Soviets: Try to keep the lid on it 'til it blows off.

    • That comment is a lie. Why is it moderated "insightful"? A number of European leaders have already stated that there was no discussion or warning before Trump's new policy was announced.

  • by bob8766 ( 1075053 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @04:56PM (#59827854)
    More cases are now being reported [in Europe] every day than were reported in China at the height of its epidemic.

    (emphasis mine)
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by czar0 ( 6222918 )

      Chinese culture accelerated the propagation of the coronavirus from China to the rest of the world. An analysis [nytimes.com] published by the New York Times explains how the Chinese tendency to hide the truth allowed the coronavirus to spread quickly.

      Get more info [blogspot.com] about Chinese culture.

      • Sure, unlike US culture where politicians always tell the truth.
      • I can't help but think that we might have the same kind of culture on our hands in the US. Well, time will tell. Literally so, because death statistics ARE public, no matter what you try. You can't hide it when people are dying in countries like the US...

  • He probably got instructions from Winnie the Pooh to say this.

    http://et.china-embassy.org/en... [china-embassy.org]

  • by sdinfoserv ( 1793266 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @05:37PM (#59828046)
    Given the US serious shortfall in testing, there is no way of knowing how many are really infected in the US. The "for profit" system styled after capitalisms just-in-time manufacturing is falling on it's face despite spending more than 2x per capita of any other country.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0... [nytimes.com]
    • Given the US serious shortfall in testing

      We talk about the US but really you should look at countries which are testing right and then you can see they can be counted on one finger. The USA has a testing shortfall due to lack of kits. China has a testing shortfall due to ... well they are China, maybe they are testing more than they are reporting, but I'm guessing they aren't testing much. Most of Europe doesn't test much by policy. I'm home sick right now, my own government's advice is they won't test you for the virus unless you've been to Italy

    • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @08:20PM (#59828644)
      since if you test positive you'll be quarantined, meaning you can't go to work. For most poeple the symptoms are mild and can be worked through. But if you're quarantined you're out of work for 2 weeks. Most companies will fire you. Most people can't afford to lose their job (at least 40% live paycheck to paycheck and it can go as high as 70% depending on where you set the "living paycheck to paycheck" threshold, though if you ask me if you can't even make 1 months rent or mortgage you're p2p).

      Point being, expect people to actively avoid being tested, and to spread the virus far and wide at work.
  • by elgholm ( 2746939 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @06:32PM (#59828280)

    I would take our Swedish numbers with a grain of salt.

    We've stopped testing people for the virus since 2-3 days back. We have not enough test kits.
    Only old people and people working with healthcare gets tested. The rest of the people showing symptoms just gets sent home with general flu recommendations.

    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward

      I work in the Australian healthcare sector. We have 14 000 staff, and provide healthcare (primary, secondary and tertiary levels) to over a million people, a quarter of the state. New rules for testing for everyone came out today:

      From now: Health care workers with cold and flu-like symptoms, who do not meet the criteria below for testing, should remain at home until their symptoms resolve, at which point they can return to work.

      Testing criteria are changed to (including in healthcare workers)

      a. fever OR res

  • by Tom ( 822 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @06:54PM (#59828340) Homepage Journal

    Other reports indicate that the actual hotbed may be Iran - the regime just doesn't report the vast majority of cases.

    There's a bunch of evidence that their official number of 6-7 k is utter bullshit. Extrapolating from the known cases among public figures and probabilities leads to 100k infected as the low end of a range of possibilities, with the upper extreme guesses in the millions.

    This might turn out to be a huge problem. The country has been under sanctions for years and its healthcare system is certainly not comparable to Europe. The thing it has going for it is that the population is much younger.

    • Extrapolating from the known cases among public figures and probabilities leads to 100k infected as the low end of a range of possibilities, with the upper extreme guesses in the millions.

      Now just imagine if it were a country with 1.38 billion people, a country who dragged it's feet and tried to cover up the response, a country which reported no new infections in most of its provinces a cool week before they even considered quarantines.

      Make no mistake, China is still the epicenter of the virus. Europe is just reporting higher numbers. I don't doubt the numbers are really high in Iran too.

      • nonsense, China is taking draconian measures, not even allowing people to leave housing compounds.

      • by Tom ( 822 )

        Except that China has nothing to win and no way to actually cover things up. The standstill of its production lines are immediately obvious to the rest of the world.

        Iran is a closed country. If it went on full stop, nobody would notice - not even the oil price as that had been dropping from overproduction and Iran is just #18 in the list of oil exporting countries.

    • Confirmed by the satellite images of the mass graves in the city of Qom.

  • by mi ( 197448 )

    The prefix epi means "above" — "epicenter" thus means "above center". This makes sense, when describing an earthquake — its actual center is deep underground, so whatever town gets destroyed is at the epicenter [princeton.edu].

    Laymen — layjournalists among them — use the term to mean "the centerest", but Slashdot editors should know better. Should they not?

  • by mestar ( 121800 ) on Friday March 13, 2020 @10:35PM (#59828988)

    Nice collection of charts about the virus:

    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo... [medium.com]

  • All the discussions and the behavior I see in US is exactly where Europe was a few weeks ago, like itâ(TM)s something happening over there in the East. Truth is, US got the virus in the country already, in about 2-3 weeks latest you will also have lockdowns and cancellations, every country went through the same phases so far and it always ended in lockdowns to slow it down because nothing else helped. So I hope you are not living paycheck to paycheck and I hope your healthcare system will be somehow af

  • by Shompol ( 1690084 ) on Saturday March 14, 2020 @02:36PM (#59830594)
    Important read on which measures are needed and why. Social distancing is critical.
    Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now [medium.com]

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