142,000 People, Mostly Children, Died From Measles In 2018 (bbc.com) 168
dryriver shares a report from the BBC: More than 140,000 people died from measles last year as the number of cases around the world surged once again, official estimates suggest. Most of the lives cut short were children aged under five. The situation has been described by health experts as staggering, an outrage, a tragedy and easily preventable with vaccines. Huge progress has been made since the year 2000, but there is concern that incidence of measles is now edging up. In 2018, the U.K. - along with Albania, the Czech Republic and Greece, lost their measles elimination status. And 2019 could be even worse.
The U.S. is reporting its highest number of cases for 25 years, while there are large outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar and Ukraine. The Pacific nation of Samoa has declared a state of emergency and unvaccinated families are hanging red flags outside their homes to help medical teams find them. [...] What is going on? In short, not enough children are being vaccinated. In order to stop measles spreading, 95% of children need to get the two doses of the vaccine. But the figures have been stubbornly stuck for years at around 86% for the first jab, and 69% for the second. The biggest problem is access to vaccines, particular in poor countries.
The U.S. is reporting its highest number of cases for 25 years, while there are large outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar and Ukraine. The Pacific nation of Samoa has declared a state of emergency and unvaccinated families are hanging red flags outside their homes to help medical teams find them. [...] What is going on? In short, not enough children are being vaccinated. In order to stop measles spreading, 95% of children need to get the two doses of the vaccine. But the figures have been stubbornly stuck for years at around 86% for the first jab, and 69% for the second. The biggest problem is access to vaccines, particular in poor countries.
That sounds like a lot... (Score:5, Funny)
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It may behoove one to want to blame the usual boogiemen but even the summary points to the main cause of the issue...
"The biggest problem is access to vaccines, particular in poor countries. "
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Poor countries like the USA and UK?
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Re:That sounds like a lot... (Score:5, Interesting)
For a bit of perspective, "normal" (for which read: before this year) deaths from measles per year (worldwide) have been 110K+. With 7B+ people, that works out to a death rate of 0.00002 or so.
This year, we had about 30% more measles deaths. Worldwide.
Now, at that rate, the USA should have had about 6600 measles deaths. Note that we actually had about 1000 CASES, not deaths.
EU likewise. Fewer cases, far fewer deaths....
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For a bit of perspective, "normal" (for which read: before this year) deaths from measles per year (worldwide) have been 110K+. With 7B+ people, that works out to a death rate of 0.00002 or so.
This year, we had about 30% more measles deaths. Worldwide.
Now, at that rate, the USA should have had about 6600 measles deaths. Note that we actually had about 1000 CASES, not deaths.
EU likewise. Fewer cases, far fewer deaths....
As someone pointed out below, ease and speed of global travel means that outbreaks can easily move from states where these diseases are more endemic. The New York outbreak was caused by travel of unvaccinated Orthodox Jewish people to Israel, who came back infected and spread it to the local, also unvaccinated, local population. We have the vaccines and they are safe (enough), the global measles rate should be falling. Instead we see rises in diseases like measles or polio(thanks for your help there, CIA
Re:That sounds like a lot... (Score:5, Informative)
For a bit of perspective, "normal" (for which read: before this year) deaths from measles per year (worldwide) have been 110K+. With 7B+ people, that works out to a death rate of 0.00002 or so.
This year, we had about 30% more measles deaths. Worldwide.
Now, at that rate, the USA should have had about 6600 measles deaths. Note that we actually had about 1000 CASES, not deaths.
EU likewise. Fewer cases, far fewer deaths....
You're comparing the wrong numbers. The US is seeing fewer cases than the worldwide average, but still more than our historical trend [newscientist.com].
The number of measles cases reported in the US continues to rise. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now reports that there have been 1164 cases of measles in 30 states as of 25 July.
This is the highest number of cases seen in one year since 1992. In 2014, the last year a large outbreak occurred in the US, there were a total of 667 cases of measles through the whole year. The number of measles cases so far in 2019 is nearly double that, a concerning trend that has led to severe policies from public health authorities trying to stem outbreaks in New York City and other hard-hit areas.
Re:That sounds like a lot... (Score:5, Informative)
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Also currently a measles epidemic in Somoa has forced government to shut down temporarily so that people stay home. That will increase numbers reported for this year.
I think this is Samoa the country, not American Samoa the territory.
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Measles is not actually that dangerous if you get some simple care while sick. Fluids, checking temperature, maybe some antibiotics, etc. When people get some basic medical care, Measles is almost never fatal. Now, it the poor desolate countries where it is hard to get to a doctor, then it is a different story. But they are saying it is hard to get the vaccines there also, so it a problem either way.
But in the first world countries it isn't such a big deal. Get the vaccine or don't, it probably doesn't make
Re: That sounds like a lot... (Score:5, Insightful)
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Maybe, but there's a risk of hearing loss in children associated with Measles. And other complications that are completely unnecessary if a child can avoid getting measles in the first place.
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Back in the day, measles complications regularly caused permanent brain damage.
https://medlineplus.gov/ency/a... [medlineplus.gov]
It still can, if people (especially kids) get measles.
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Measels is a virus.
Antibiotcs don't help.
However your general point is true.
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That is not at all how data works.
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Wow, one wants to blame men who are boogieing the night away? I'd have never guessed they were implicated on this.
In the case of Samoa it's wrong (Score:5, Informative)
It may behoove one to want to blame the usual boogiemen but even the summary points to the main cause of the issue...
"The biggest problem is access to vaccines, particular in poor countries. "
In Samoa it is caused because of an incident when a mistake in preparing a vaccine led to the death of (at least) two children [immune.org.nz]. Since steps to retrain nurses were only made in June this year [rnz.co.nz] I can understand why some people were worried.
hahaha (Score:2)
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Re:That sounds like a lot... (Score:5, Funny)
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But think about all the autism that didn't happen.
Groan.. I see you trying to be funny, but MAN I so hate that whole "The MMR vaccine causes autism" argument with such a passion that I just get angry all over again. Some yahoo UK doctor with some patented ineffective treatment for autism which basically a set of medical procedures which are painful and dangerous, publishes some dubious cohort study that tried to link MMR to autism that cannot be repeated nor can his subjects be reevaluated because in many cases the reported "Facts" don't match up. Once i
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>>given that individuals who contract measles are less likely to be diagnosed with autism later.
Cite or STFU
Citation: Dead people don't receive posthumous diagnoses of autism. That's the joke.
In case it still doesn't make sense to you: people who contract measles are at greater risk of death. As such, statistically speaking, a lower percentage of them will survive long enough to be diagnosed with autism, meaning that the rate of autism diagnoses among those who contract measles will be lower than the rate among the general population. Again, because they are already dead.
I shouldn't have to explain this joke to s
Actions have consequences (Score:4, Interesting)
Antivax: the deadly solution to the non-existant problem.
I hope even one antivaxxer realizes how stupid they've been from this news.
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How many times does this need to be explained ?
Infinite. (Score:3)
There will always be people who don't have the facts, and need to be told.
Once upon a time, you didn't have the facts. Someone had to tell you, too.
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Why do antivaxxers wan't to kill children through neglect?
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A double dose of MMR is about 97% effective against measles. So if your kid is not vaccinated and mine is, they're both exposed to the virus, and they both play together, mine has a (1-0.97)x = 0.03x chance of getting measles, where x is the chance of infection for an unvaccinated kid.
If your kid is ALSO vaccinated, the chance is (1-0.97)*(1-0.97)x = 0.0009x.
I doubt the parents in question do that math though. They just don't want their kid catching stupid.
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*edit: "x is the chance of infection for *your* unvaccinated kid"
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Re: Actions have consequences (Score:3)
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If they didn't listen to science before, they won't listen to it now.
Re:Actions have consequences (Score:5, Insightful)
If they didn't listen to science before, they won't listen to it now.
It's a pity that the word and concept "science" have become so degraded. Science, properly understood, is not something you "listen to" passively. It's something you have to understand actively.
As Richard Feynman liked to stress, "Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts". That's why, 300 years earlier, the Royal Society adopted the motto "Nullius in Verba" - roughly translated, "take no one's word"; i.e. find out for yourself.
In his talk "Cargo Cult Science", Feynman explained:
"There is one feature I notice that is generally missing in cargo cult science. It's a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty — a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you're doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid — not only what you think is right about it; other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you've eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked — to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated.
"Details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must be given, if you know them. You must do the best you can — if you know anything at all wrong, or possibly wrong — to explain it. If you make a theory, for example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it. There is also a more subtle problem. When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.
"In summary, the idea is to try to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgement in one particular direction or another".
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Re:Actions have consequences (Score:5, Informative)
To be fair, people do die from inexpertly administered vaccines, but I imagine it's less than 142K/year
Side effects from vaccines are incredibly rare. For proof of that, look at the US National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program. To qualify "a claimant must have experienced an injury that is named as a vaccine injury in a table included in the law within the required time period or show a causal connection" and the burden of proof is civil, preponderance of evidence not criminal. The average payout rate for vaccines in the US 2006-2017 is 1.2 cases per million vaccinations. The highest rate is actually on tetanus at over 13, with the next highest (standalone measles) at half that. The MMR vaccine is at the average rate of 1.2.
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1.2 per million? So for 8B people that's like 10K!!! I was honestly expecting way less :(
That's for all types of "injuries", not just deaths. I'm not seeing the actual breakdown, but I would assume in most cases it's things like allergic reactions.
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Probably not. "The doctor did something that made my kid be seriously injured or die; I can get lots of money if I report that" seems tailor-made for far more over-reporting than under-reporting. Plus, any cases like this will be seized upon by anti-vaxxers to "prove" their point, so there is even more incentive to over-report. And media stories about injured kids play very well, so...
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Probably not. "The doctor did something that made my kid be seriously injured or die; I can get lots of money if I report that" seems tailor-made for far more over-reporting than under-reporting. Plus, any cases like this will be seized upon by anti-vaxxers to "prove" their point, so there is even more incentive to over-report. And media stories about injured kids play very well, so...
You might think so, but that is not what I have read about reporting rates. Not just US, Canada is looking at the under reporting of vaccine injuries. It is estimated that only 10% of reactions form vaccines ever get reported. Most of the time the doctor does not connect it to the vaccine. If the symptoms don't show up immediately after the injection, it is almost impossible to get it attributed correctly. Especially since everyone, including doctors, are told how safe they are. So it can't be a vaccine inj
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Actually, vaccine side effects are not rare. Most are just not all that serious. However, most doctors refuse to report documented side effects. And that is why Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database is of minimal use in gauging the safety and side effects of vaccines.
Rather, we need to establish a new program that makes use of modern technology, in particular, data-mining. And record any and all incidents that transpire within an allotted time. Submit them to the database, and analyze
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To be fair, people do die from inexpertly administered vaccines
The recorded death rate from the MMR vaccine is 2. Total.
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Those kids didn't get the vaccine (and it was several months ago, not last week), the nurse filled the syringe from the wrong vial and gave them a lethal dose of something else (anesthetic, I think).
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That is because the vast majority of vaccination incidents are not reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).
I have vaccinated all of my children. However, my youngest had an incident in which she was administered a vaccine, and within 24 hours we were in the ER for breathing treatments. Guess what? Our pediatrician refused to report the incident. Why? Well, vaccines rarely cause side effects. Uh, my daughter just experienced a side effect that is in fact noted in the vaccine documen
Re: Actions have consequences (Score:2)
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Antivax: the deadly solution to the non-existant problem.
I hope even one antivaxxer realizes how stupid they've been from this news.
I say take anyone pushing anti-vax claims and charge them with attempted murder.
Arrests in Samoa (Score:3, Informative)
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Yep, just read about that. I believe they've had over 60 deaths so far in the latest outbreak.
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I think it's interesting where people draw the line for free speech. Is anti-vax speech less deserving of 1st amendment protection than white supremacy speech? I can maybe go along with that but I'd like to hear the argument.
I would say that generally any (non-libelous) speech should be protected until you get to the point where it is advocating for or causing harm to other people. If idiots want to march around with tiki torches (I understand, mosquitoes suck) shouting Nazi slogans fine, let them (but they shouldn't get mad if people call them out and publicly identify them). But start screaming "death to Jews", you've crossed the line. Anti-vax has crossed that line, as there are documented cases of people getting sick in
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Re:Actions have consequences (Score:5, Insightful)
By your logic, this make me a homicidal maniac, no?
No, the court system does not use crude analogies to decide cases.
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Also, as dangerous as not vaccinating your kids is, it's still less dangerous than having an in-ground pool. So I hope we can at least agree to go after those murderous pool-having bastards first.
Sure. If a parent with an in-ground pool allows their young child to swim unsupervised and something happens, they've certainly opened themselves up to liability for negligent homicide. Especially if they haven't taken protective measures like fencing it off (I would say a pool cover as well, but I think you have to use specific types or it can actually be more dangerous with one)
Re: Actions have consequences (Score:2)
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It's called an "attractive nuisance", if the neighbor kids sneak in and drown you can be liable if you haven't restricted access in some way, like a fence. My friend had a 20 foot tower on his property (long story involving an artist girlfriend), and had to put a door on it to keep the neighbor kids out or he could have been liable if they got injured.
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Antivax: the deadly solution to the non-existant problem.
Funny, I didn't have my reading glasses on and I read "anthrax" - which, oddly enough, would have made the sentence bang-on accurate, and a mildly amusing piece of dark humor too.
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Punishing kids for the actions of their parents doesn't ever seem ok. They have no agency in this decision.
Re: Actions have consequences (Score:3)
Overall human population still rapidly growing (Score:2)
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The number of children has been steady at 2 billion since 2000. The human population is not rapidly growing, it is merely growing up.
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Looks like it's still growing:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/w... [wikimedia.org]
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
Also, I can recommend reading https://www.gapminder.org/fact... [gapminder.org]. That book makes it hard to remain pessimist.
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You can't cheat evolution.
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Nope. The difference is due to aliens from other planets. The real human population has remained fixed since 2000.
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The inflationary economic model (i.e. pyramid scheme) does not work without a growing population.
If that's the case, they are doomed no matter what. We can't keep growing forever.
And if the system is going to fail, the earlier the better.
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Still, with reduced population growth, the ratio between retired people and active workers will get bigger, so that means the retired people will get less.
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Remember that until about 40-50 years ago a median salary would be distributed among at least 5 - 6 people
But that's not what is happening now. There are plenty of families with 2 adults working, and only 0-2 kids, and plenty of those are not living comfortably enough that they can increase their pension payments by large amounts.
Also, we need actual hands-on workers that help old folks, and if that pool shrinks, their wages will inflate.
Re: Overall human population still rapidly growing (Score:2)
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Yes, it is not a problem.
The really huge problem is that the economy is a pyramid. In this form it will implode the moment we hit plateau (about 30 yrs from now). Nobody ever talks about it. It will be ugly.
Global Travel (Score:5, Insightful)
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Saving your kid's life against a known killer virus seems like a no-brainer. I just don't know how you drill that message home in the mind of someone who's an anti-vaxxer.
True conspiracy nuts can't ever be convinced it's not, any argument or evidence becomes part of the conspiracy. They're so mentally invested in their "truth" and superiority over the "fools" who don't understand that it's like pulling matter out of a black hole. I've tried reasoning with a few and no matter how basic facts or logic you try to apply it always circles down to some variation of "that's what they want you to believe".
Fortunately, they're the few. For every one of those there's ten or maybe a hu
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known killer virus
Yeah, that is what they keep saying. And you bought right into it.
Anti-Vaxxers rejoice (Score:2)
Herd Immunity at it's finest (Score:2)
Year? (Score:2)
...since the year 2000 .... In 2018 ... And 2019 could...
Why are people so terrified to let "2000" stand alone in reference a date? Why do they always feel the need to add the word "year", but not for any of the other years?
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It's probably a style/editing thing. Similar to how you use a person's full name and title the first time you refer to them (President Donald J. Trump) and then use a short form every time afterwards (Mr. Trump.)
So you probably say "the year 2000" the first time you mention a year standing alone, but can omit the word year for each other reference to a year.
Editorial style guides can be very, very specific on these things.
Herd immunity (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Herd immunity (Score:4, Insightful)
People have finally learned not to trust traditional authority, but instead of thinking for themselves they simply turn to charlatans as new authorities.
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People have finally learned not to trust traditional authority
Why do you use the words "finally learned" as if this is even remotely a good thing. Traditional authority is experts in the field and scientists. We should not ever be promoting alternative authorities.
Re: Herd immunity (Score:5, Interesting)
Access (Score:2)
And the biggest problem in wealthy countries is access to intelligence.
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Because the vaccines don't work in 100% of the cases, and there's a risk that in a partially vaccinated community, the R0 factor becomes larger than 1.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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Because the vaccines don't work in 100% of the cases[...]
Well, it's more that not everyone can be vaccinated...
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No, the number of people that cannot be vaccinated is much smaller than the number of people where the vaccine doesn't work.
That's now how smarts work (Score:2)
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According to modern studies, genetic component to intelligence is 80-85%.
trickle down stupidity (Score:2)
Our expensive healthcare system will treat and save most of the stupid among us. Instead we'll have kids with strabismus (misalignment of the eyes), more miscarriages, more premature births, and a whole host of more benign things that still rack up huge hospital bills.
It's either your tax dollars or your insurance premiums that will bear the cost of the idiots who don't vaccinate their children.
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