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Medicine

We May Be In a 'Post-Herd Immunity World', says Immunology Expert (theguardian.com) 107

Posted by EditorDavid from the pessimism-is-contagious dept.
Dr. Paul Offit, an expert on infectious disease and immunology, told the Guardian that "We're living in a post-herd-immunity world. I think the measles outbreak proves that. Measles — because it is the most contagious of the vaccine-preventable diseases, the most contagious human disease really — it is the first to come back." Three large outbreaks in Canada, Mexico and the US now account for the overwhelming majority of roughly 2,300 measles cases across the World Health Organization's six-country Americas region, according to the health authority's update this week. Risk of measles is considered high in the Americas, and has grown 11-fold compared with 2024. Only slightly behind, data released earlier this week from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and WHO also noted that measles cases across Europe were up tenfold in 2024 compared to 2023. That data also indicated that the 2024 measles cases in Europe followed a seasonal pattern, which was not previously noted in 2021 through 2023. Of the European cases, which reportedly hit 35,212 for 2024, 87% were reported in Romania. The ECDC said the dip in vaccine rates has impacted the recent spike in measles, with only three countries, Hungary, Malta and Portugal, having coverage of 95% or more for both doses of the measles vaccine.

We May Be In a 'Post-Herd Immunity World', says Immunology Expert More | Reply

We May Be In a 'Post-Herd Immunity World', says Immunology Expert

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  • More like "post smart"... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by gweihir ( 88907 ) on Sunday May 04, 2025 @11:44AM (#65351231)

    Because not vaccinating is simply one thing: dumb. And not vaccinating your childen is child abuse.

    Yes, anything has risks. Not doing something alos has risks. The smart thing is to honestly and neutrally look at the data and then make a decision. Instead panicky, insight-less and idological approaches have replaced rationality. Pathetic.

    • Because not vaccinating is simply one thing: dumb. And not vaccinating your childen is child abuse.

      Yes, anything has risks. Not doing something alos has risks. The smart thing is to honestly and neutrally look at the data and then make a decision. Instead panicky, insight-less and idological approaches have replaced rationality. Pathetic.

      This was addressed by RFK recently.

      1) Most of the measles cases are in Texas, among their large Amish and Mennonite population. These people avoid vaccinations for religious reasons.

      2) The number of measles cases is roughly 800, but the number of new cases has leveled off. The number of cases doesn't appear to be growing in the manner of an epidemic.

      3) Canada has about as many cases, but with 1/8 the population of the US.

      4) Other countries are seeing a rise in measles cases, and are doing less well than the

      • Almost as if reporting on the health of the US isn't really their goal...

        Are you serious?

        https://abovethelaw.com/2018/0... [abovethelaw.com]

      • Re:This was addressed (Score:5, Insightful)

        by jacks smirking reven ( 909048 ) on Sunday May 04, 2025 @12:31PM (#65351351)

        1. That's still bad since you cannot contain measles to your religious group.

        2. Not yet but 800 is too many in 2025. "Well it didn't turn into an epidemic" is not a positive outcome.

        3. Yes, for the same reasons; lack of inoculation. Why even say this? If there was a different cause of measles in Canada this might mean something.

        4. See 3, unless you have a novel reason for a new measles outbreak this only makes the argument for vaccination stronger.

        RFK has bad arguments because he has no facts on his side.

        Obesity, diabetes and autism are not a viral infections. This is total deflection.

        We can't actually talk about those things now becasue we are still debating *fucking vaccinations in 2025* with folks like yourself and RFK. If they can't accept the mountains of evidence for that I have negative amounts of faith they can approach an effective policy towards everything.

        • Uh, the development of diabetes is actually linked with bad cases of COVID at this point.

          https://health.clevelandclinic... [clevelandclinic.org]

          "Within a year of recovering from a COVID-19 infection, people were about 40% more likely to develop diabetes"

          Now, this is complex stuff, so it's always possible that people on the edge of developing diabetes are more vulnerable to getting sick from COVID, but COVID causing it is also possible at this point...

      • "These people avoid vaccinations for religious reasons." -- This is not true, the problem is these communities are very isolated and the government of Texas would have to make an actual effort to vaccinate these children by actually traveling to these communities and arranging vaccinations. They do not have a religious reasons per-se, their religion, their world view, and plautdietsch keeps them from interacting with our medical system on a routine basis. In the 1970s these same communities were vaccinate

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by skam240 ( 789197 )

        The problem is that vaccination rates for children are still in decline. This means decades from now as these people grow up and older vaccinated people die off due to age we're going to have shit tons more people not vaccinated against many diseases then we do now so while this current outbreak is under control future ones will get harder and harder to control.

        We can very easily see a greater problem on the horizon, meanwhile we have a Secretary of Health actively spreading vaccine misinformation like he a

      • Re: (Score:3)

        by dfghjk ( 711126 )

        "1) Most of the measles cases are in Texas, among their large Amish and Mennonite population. These people avoid vaccinations for religious reasons."

        So for the same reasons as ALL populations in the US. All anti-vax is religious. Also, how were the measles outbreaks in these populations before?

        "The US is apparently in good shape as far as measles go. "

        Just not as good as it used to be.

        "Yes, it's a concern, but not much of a concern and it isn't expected to become a problem."

        Not expected to be by what auth

        • Re: (Score:1)

          by Coius ( 743781 )

          "In comparison, the US has epidemics of obesity, childhood diabetes, and autism."

          "These three are the elephants in the room, ..."

          these days"three epidemics" are not "epidemics" and have nothing to do with the anti vaxxers.

          Thanks for stating that my autism is an epidemic to be compared with many selfishly and stupidly caused issues of over-indulgence. Not to mention, something to be cured. This isn't an epidemic. It's like that car effect where after you see a particular (maybe unique) car, catches your attention, you notice many more once you are aware of them, and find out they are out and about and more common than you think. First, the rise in autism is being blurred by high and low functioning being mixed together, and s

      • Strangely silent? I'm assuming you're referring to MSN, not MSM.
        Childhood obesity plagues NY. Will new bill targeting false, predatory food ads curb it? [msn.com]
        Antibiotic exposure before age two linked to childhood obesity [msn.com]
        This is stuff within the last week on childhood obesity. I trimmed some duplicates. Go further back, there's articles on India launching a fight against it.

        On autism - I'm seeing articles on how it's commonly overlooked in girls, how the Scottish government is failing, having a 3 year waitlist

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by sjames ( 1099 )

        Of course it didn't turn into an epidemic. A large portion of the U.S. population was vaccinated against measles before the current nutzery about vaccines started spreading.

        But that portion will be smaller and smaller as years of idiocy go by.

        RFK has a long history of making poor decisions about health and pretty much everything else. Why would you want to follow his advice?

    • Re:More like "post smart"... (Score:5, Interesting)

      by battingly ( 5065477 ) on Sunday May 04, 2025 @12:59PM (#65351409)

      Because not vaccinating is simply one thing: dumb. And not vaccinating your childen is child abuse.

      It's worse than that. It's abuse of an entire community of children.

    • Re:More like "post smart"... (Score:4, Insightful)

      by gtall ( 79522 ) on Sunday May 04, 2025 @01:14PM (#65351433)

      Vaccinations have risks and are widely marketed as such. Unless the kid was tested to know the precisely link between her vaccination (and even then it might be unknowable) and her health problems, this just anecdotal evidence..... and the poster might be some anti-vaxxer making shit up. Gee, they have never been known to do that.

      Vaccination risks are backed by statistics and real data, not some anti-vaxxer insinuating something nefarious but unable to point to the precise reason, and this on a data point of 1.

    • This is the kind of stupid that comes from a failure of education. And education can only fail when trust is lost or when no effort is even made to obtain and maintain it.

      I'm not saying an ardent anti-vaxxer can be persuaded with just the right pitch, but I am saying that there are a far larger number of people who *are* persuadable and who *will* react negatively to paternalistic and patronizing messaging from the public health establishment interspersed with naked politics asserted to be dispassionate sci

      • There were several reasons to rename monkeypox, it wasn't some conspiracy to confuse people or "hide the truth." Quite the opposite. The name has resulted in people scared of contracting it killing monkeys, even though the disease seems to originate in squirrels. However, I will concede that "mpox" was not a particularly inspired rebranding.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by kick6 ( 1081615 )

      Because not vaccinating is simply one thing: dumb. And not vaccinating your childen is child abuse.

      Yes, anything has risks. Not doing something alos has risks. The smart thing is to honestly and neutrally look at the data and then make a decision. Instead panicky, insight-less and idological approaches have replaced rationality. Pathetic.

      Would you say that it's a good idea, then, to not allow the unvaccinated to stream across a horribly protected border?

    • When will you legalize suicide so I don't have to live in a world with so many people like you in it?

  • Religious nutjobs in the USA and pikeys in Romania.

    • Well, if the second part is true, it is a good revenge for your recent meddling in their elections on behalf of putin.

      • if the second part is true

        And it's not. Which one could guess by 1) absence of source and 2) use of racial slurs. The facts:

        * Romania used to have excellent vaccination coverage (96%) because Caucescu encouraged it
        * After the end of that regime, it stayed very high due to inertia
        * When Romania joined the EU, many new vaccines were introduced, along with rumours leading to increasing distrust.
        * As vaccination was never compulsory, rates fell to today 62%
        * Antivax rumours are now widespread. As example, during COVID pandemic, the a br

  • This shit from the conspiracy crowd is killing their own members and kids, I am glad my parents had me have all the available vaccinations.
    Since many years we can see the proof vaccination are for the vast majority of the population very safe, and, they add to our communal safety.

  • Cure for Stupid (Score:3)

    by Luthair ( 847766 ) on Sunday May 04, 2025 @11:51AM (#65351251)
    Unfortunately if one existed the people who need it are too dumb to take it.

  • I am tired of the vaccine conspiracy theorist disease deniers. It's a form of selfishness. Yes, there is always a risk with any medical procedure, and a vaccine is no exception. With a vaccine there is a tiny risk of an allergic or other reaction. It's very small, but non-zero. Vaccine refusers are basically saying that they refuse that risk and defer it onto everyone else. Drafting off of the idea that everyone else will assume the risk and the diseases won't progress to threaten them.

    The unfortunate reality, is even those who get the vaccine still have a small chance of contracting the disease. So as the community of vaccine deniers grows, they are not only a risk to themselves but to everyone around them who may either not be fully immune, or who are too young to have received the vaccine.

    When my youngest son was an infant, a woman in my (then) church contracted pertussis and passed it to him. She was an early vaccine denier ("THEY CAUSE AUTISM" was her cry from the rooftops). She was too old for pertussis to be a threat to her, and likely thought she just had a cough. But when my son contracted it, it was life threatening. He developed a sneeze, then a cough, then had trouble breathing, then his lips turned blue and that wheeze "whooping" cough started. We rushed him to hospital, but it was a rural one and they were unequipped for a newborn needing intensive care. They put him on oxygen then shipped him by ambulance to the next larger center. They still couldn't intubate him, but they did suction his lungs and then he was put on an air ambulance to a major center. That finally saved his life, but for four horus it was touch and go, with him getting just enough treatment at each stop to keep him going until the next.

    Vaccine deniers make me angry. They need some tough talk, and perhaps strict legistlation. Namely:
    - Call a spade a spade. A vaccine refuser is a danger to themself and others and offloads risk to others. In short they are shirking their public responsibility and are being selfish.
    - Even if you don't subscribe to the view that they can be forced to receive vaccines, it is the absolute right of the rest of us to say "we just don't want to play with you". Vaccine refusers should be forced to be identifiable. They should then be barred from all public travel, barred from the public workplace, or in fact any public place where more than 10 people gather as being a danger to themself and others.
    - De-insure them from all public health plans (I'd do this with smokers too, but that's another discussion). If a private company wants to insure them, that's fine, but they must be forced to identify that they are not vaccinated. And, yes, as part of the previous point, I would absolutely bar them from public hospitals.
    - Or, just avoid all the trouble, and simply make them take their medicine like any good parent would do for a recalcitrant and temper-tantruming child.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Teun ( 17872 )
      I feel with you!
      In my country (The Netherlands) there's always been a bunch of "Christian churches" that deny vaccination because it would be against the will of their God.
      Luckily they stayed below the 5% threshold but although 'sex' is a banned word for them they do fuck like rabbits...
      Now we also have (anti)social media and a bunch of generally uneducated Muslims and together they lower the herd immunity below the required 95% of vaccinations in the population.
      Sad.

    • Re:Need some tough talk and perhap strict legislat (Score:5, Insightful)

      by skam240 ( 789197 ) on Sunday May 04, 2025 @12:35PM (#65351361)

      What kills me is vax deniers claim to have "done their research" but seem oblivious to what life was like before vaccines. Pretty much every one of us would know someone who had died or had lasting side effects from diseases that we now have vaccines for. We really don't want to go back to the way things were before vaccines or we'd have shit tons more horrible stories like yours, many of which would end a lot worse.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by kick6 ( 1081615 )

        What kills me is vax deniers claim to have "done their research" but seem oblivious to what life was like before vaccines. Pretty much every one of us would know someone who had died or had lasting side effects from diseases that we now have vaccines for. We really don't want to go back to the way things were before vaccines or we'd have shit tons more horrible stories like yours, many of which would end a lot worse.

        For a website for supposedly intelligent people, it's amazing how quickly we go straight to binary thinking. Maybe we take whole a byte and get away from anything we call a vaccine is always good vs anything we call a vaccine is always bad, and have some room for some things called vaccines aren't actually vaccines, and some things called vaccines aren't actually good?

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by skam240 ( 789197 )

          "For a website for supposedly intelligent people, it's amazing" we have users who purport superior intellect with posts like yours.

          But elaborate for us, what things called vaccines arent actually vaccines? What approved vaccines arent actually "good"?

          • What approved vaccines aren't actually "good"?

            No matter what they say the answer is always "the ones that opposition towards furthers my political agenda"

        • Yeah, we should have rigorous testing to prove that all proposed vaccines actually work and are broadly safe and provide more benefit than risk, and ban those that don't reach that standard.

          Oh wait, we DO have that.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      I am tired of the vaccine conspiracy theorist disease deniers. It's a form of selfishness.

      It's not selfish in their mind, they are protecting their family from "wokeness". Too many actually believe dumbass anti-vax conspiracies. They are taught that gov't and subject matter experts are all bribed and/or part of a left-wing club, and that AM-radio pundits and prayer are the best source of truth.

      The Age of Morons is Here!

  • Where was the reservoir of measles that initiated the outbreak?

  • The idea of "herd immunity" is that the immunized proportion is great enough that an introduction of the disease results in few infections and the disease dies out again, thus protecting members of the "herd" who aren't immunized also. For a region to be "post-herd-immunity", outbreaks coming from unimmunized communities or from places which never had herd immunity would have to be self-sustaining in the larger once-herd-immune population. Is that the case? I don't know, the article doesn't say. I doubt

    • Re:Show me the numbers (Score:4, Informative)

      by dfghjk ( 711126 ) on Sunday May 04, 2025 @12:36PM (#65351365)

      "Is that the case? I don't know, the article doesn't say."

      Yes it does. 'Dr. Paul Offit, an expert on infectious disease and immunology, told the Guardian that "We're living in a post-herd-immunity world.'

      You didn't invent the term, "post-herd-immunity" meant what it meant when that statement was made. The VERY FIRST THING that the summary says is exactly that.

      "I doubt it, as it appears the Texas outbreak (largest in the US) remains concentrated in the particular community it started in."

      So not only do you have reading comprehension issues, you like to make scientific assumptions. How large does a "community" have to be to meet your criteria?

      "So it appears to me this is sensationalism..."

      We all know you started with this conclusion, then tried to justify it.

      "...we are not seeing the breakdown of herd immunity as a whole but rather a very large outbreak among a subpopulation that was never herd immune."

      Add you your list of poorly defined concepts is "subpopulation". Is a living room a "subpopulation"? Is a continent a "subpopulation"? Playing games with terms doesn't get anyone anywhere. Herd immunity is a large scale characteristic, local outbreaks are not absolute proofs, that's why the expert said "I think the measles outbreak proves that." Try engaging in good faith for a change.

      "...but so far I don't see evidence that there will be a return of endemic measle..."

      And who are you, and why should anyone give a shit what your opinion is? You're clearly demonstrating bias.

      "In the meantime, might want to avoid the outbreak areas if you have a not-yet-immunized child or some reason to believe immunization has failed."

      Who, that's some real expertise on display. We're all really grateful for your expert advice.

  • I know it's not something i was exposed to myself till i went looking for it on my own in the middle of high school.

    We'd have a lot less stupid people killing their children by misunderstanding the safety of vaccines if we taught them how to properly evaluate statistics young. Or at all.

  • Stupidity will do in humanity (Score:3, Insightful)

    by dskoll ( 99328 ) on Sunday May 04, 2025 @12:06PM (#65351281) Homepage

    Measles outbreaks are completely preventable, at least in wealthy developed countries. There's absolutely no excuse for them to happen other than human stupidity.

    And yes, there are some people who legitimately cannot take vaccines for medical reasons, and they rely on most other people being vaccinated for their protection. So not only are stupid people harming themselves and their kids, they're also harming other people.

    And also yes, there are very occasionally serious side effects from vaccines. Those are unfortunate and the people who suffer them should be compensated, but the number and seriousness of those side effects is much, much lower than the number and seriousness of the diseases that occur when people are not vaccinated. Everything is a tradeoff and it's unquestionably true that vaccination against diseases like measles, mumps, rubella and polio is much better than skipping that vaccination.

  • The new slogan for the US Dept of Health and Human Services. MHCMA. Not sure how well that will fit on a hat though.

    Seriously though, have you seen the hhs.gov website? It has been turned into a propaganda platform. We live in scary times.

  • Let's hope so (Score:3)

    by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Sunday May 04, 2025 @12:36PM (#65351369)

    The planet is crowded enough with idiots. Having some of them die off because they're anti-science is a good thing.

    This will probably be accelerated in the U.S. because of cuts made by anti-science [propublica.org] bear killer Kennedy. At a time when measles cases are soaring in Texas due to anti-vaccine Christians [apnews.com], he decided it would be a good time to pull funding [nbcnews.com] for free* measles vaccination clinics [npr.org].

    * Free in the European sense that it's free to person because they paid for the vaccine with their taxes

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by bsolar ( 1176767 )

      The planet is crowded enough with idiots. Having some of them die off because they're anti-science is a good thing.

      The problem is idiots are not always the victims of their idiocy. As example:

      • Children depend on their parents making non-idiotic decisions for them.
      • People with a compromised immune system might not be able to be successfully vaccinated regardless of their decision, so they have to rely on herd immunity for protection.

      • For children, all that means is the defective genes won't survive to pass on to another generation.

        For the immune compromised, they can at least take precautions to minimize their risk.

  • Countries need leaders who are at least nominally concerned with the general welfare. That includes balancing rights against responsibilities.

    You should not have the freedom to roam around as a virus reservoir, threatening your community. You should have the responsibility to be properly vaccinated for communal safety, and this responsibility should be encouraged with significant legal sanctions if you don't get it done.

    I don't care if you're MAGA or Mennonite, I don't care how loudly you scream about you

  • each vaccine need to be retested against an inert placebo. and the entire childhood schedule needs to go head to head against those who haven't received any vaccines. any of those diseases would be far and away more preferable than having autism.

    i had measles as a kid and it was no big deal. had multiple flu infections in my life that were far far far worse.

    all these comments about 'science denialism' and 'conspiracy theories', u all sound heavily vaccinated. bunch of smooth brained midwits think they're sm

  • Must be true. It's just a coincidence It's on the side of selling new vaccines.
    One expert says we just need to vaccinate the vulnerable, its wrong to rely on just one expert.
    Science!

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