Earth Safe From 'City-Killer' Asteroid 2024 YR4 21
Asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered a significant impact risk, has been reassigned to Torino Scale Level Zero and therefore poses no hazard to Earth. "The NASA JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) now lists the 2024 YR4 impact probability as 0.00005 (0.005%) or 1-in-20,000 for its passage by Earth in 2032," Richard Binzel, Professor of Planetary Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and creator of the Torino scale exclusively told Space.com. "That's impact probability zero folks!" From the report: Discovered in Dec. 2024, 2024 YR4 quickly climbed to the top of NASA's Sentry Risk table, at one point having a 1 in 32 chance of hitting Earth. This elevated it to Level 3 on the Torino scale, a system used since 1999 to categorize potential Earth impact events. Level 3, which falls within the yellow band of the Torino Scale, is described as: "A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction."
This conforms to the second part of the Torino scale level 3 description, which states: "Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away." "Asteroid 2024 YR4 has now been reassigned to Torino Scale Level Zero, the level for 'No Hazard' as additional tracking of its orbital path has reduced its possibility of intersecting the Earth to below the 1-in-1000 threshold," Binzel continued. "1-in-1000 is the threshold established for downgrading to Level 0 for any object smaller than 100 meters; YR4 has an estimated size of 164 feet (50 meters)."
[...] While 2024 YR4 poses no threat, it will still have a major scientific impact when it passes Earth in 2028 and again in 2032. On Dec. 17, the asteroid will come to within 5 million miles of Earth. Then, on Dec.22, 2032, 2024 YR4 will pass within just 167,000 miles of our planet. For context, the moon is 238,855 miles away.
This conforms to the second part of the Torino scale level 3 description, which states: "Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away." "Asteroid 2024 YR4 has now been reassigned to Torino Scale Level Zero, the level for 'No Hazard' as additional tracking of its orbital path has reduced its possibility of intersecting the Earth to below the 1-in-1000 threshold," Binzel continued. "1-in-1000 is the threshold established for downgrading to Level 0 for any object smaller than 100 meters; YR4 has an estimated size of 164 feet (50 meters)."
[...] While 2024 YR4 poses no threat, it will still have a major scientific impact when it passes Earth in 2028 and again in 2032. On Dec. 17, the asteroid will come to within 5 million miles of Earth. Then, on Dec.22, 2032, 2024 YR4 will pass within just 167,000 miles of our planet. For context, the moon is 238,855 miles away.
bummer (Score:1)
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Remember Greenland? The movie that is. The government would say it was going to miss even if it was going to hit. Given a 70% chance it would hit water and another chance it would hit lightly populated desert it would be the right thing to do.
Shit! (Score:2)
...i had my money on 'Lago
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Nah! Don't forget he is the re-incarnation of Christ so he saved planet Earth from the asteroid! /s
Too bad. (Score:1)
Plot twist (Score:2)
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SciFi references aside, the 2032 approach is close enough that it almost certainly will have a measurable course change from its interaction with Earth's gravity well, and that will have a knock on effect on the odds of a collision later on, albeit most likely a *lot* later on before the differing orbital periods and 2024-YR24's more eliptical orbit bring us back into close proximity.
Just... (Score:3)
Damn (Score:3)
Damn
Coincides YR of Rat 08, 20, 23 (12 year cycles) (Score:1)
That was quick (Score:2)
That we discover that the asteroid would miss the Earth is expected, it was a 97% chance after all.
However, I would have expected the news to come in much later, possibly years, as more data is collected.
still an opportunity (Score:4, Interesting)
We have 7 years to take advantage of an asteroid whizzing by at only slightly more than half way to the moon - that thing should be covered with probes, landers, sensors by the time it departs our neighborhood this time.
It's comming right for us. (Score:2)
Sigh... (Score:2)
We can't catch any luck these days.
Hope truly dies. (Score:2)
Come on, damn it. Everything else down here is a dumpster fire. The one thing my bingo card is missing is an asteroid / meteor strike. Come on! I've almost won!
how about the moon (Score:1)
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