Astronomers Discover 196-Foot Asteroid With 1-In-83 Chance of Hitting Earth In 2032 60
Astronomers have discovered a newly identified asteroid that has a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032, though the most likely scenario is a close miss. Designated as 2024 YR4, the asteroid measures in at 196 feet wide and is currently 27 million miles away. Space.com reports: The near-Earth object (NEO) discovered in 2024, which is around half as wide as a football field is long, will make a very close approach to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. It's estimated to come within around 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) of Earth on that day, according to NASA's Center of NEO Studies (CNEOS). However, when orbital uncertainties are considered, that close approach could turn out to be a direct hit on our planet.
Such an impact could cause an explosion in the atmosphere, called an "airburst," or could cause an impact crater when it slams into the ground. This is enough to see asteroid 2024 YR4 leap to the top of the European Space Agency's NEO impact Risk List and NASA's Sentry Risk Table. "People should absolutely not worry about this yet," said Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin. "Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us."
As for where it could hit Earth, Rankin said that the "risk corridor" for impact runs from South America across the Atlantic to sub-Saharan Africa.
Such an impact could cause an explosion in the atmosphere, called an "airburst," or could cause an impact crater when it slams into the ground. This is enough to see asteroid 2024 YR4 leap to the top of the European Space Agency's NEO impact Risk List and NASA's Sentry Risk Table. "People should absolutely not worry about this yet," said Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin. "Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us."
As for where it could hit Earth, Rankin said that the "risk corridor" for impact runs from South America across the Atlantic to sub-Saharan Africa.
So, I gotta ask (Score:5, Funny)
What are the odds this is just that Tesla, once again?
Re:So, I gotta ask (Score:4, Funny)
Please stop dead-naming the company.
In line with President Musk's other X-ventures, it is commonly known as the Swasticar.
Re: (Score:2, Funny)
Party like there is no tomorrow (Score:1)
Astroturfing (Score:4, Insightful)
Is this fake news? The article mentions astronomers, but then uses units such as miles and feet, and astronomers would never use those in 2025.
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Don't look up!
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Is this fake news? The article mentions astronomers, but then uses units such as miles and feet, and astronomers would never use those in 2025.
At least they didn't say it'll come within 65989.6206 miles from Earth.
Measurements (Score:4, Funny)
How long is half a football field in libraries of congress?
Re:Measurements (Score:4, Funny)
It's the length of a witch, and it travels at the vacuum velocity of an unladden swallow.
Re: Measurements (Score:3)
Re: Measurements (Score:2)
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unladden swallow.
African or European?
Re: Measurements (Score:2)
I don't know that !
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The other kind of swallow.
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The same as the ratio of unicorns to leprechauns.
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How long is half a football field in libraries of congress?
And is it Murican Football or sucker?
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"Risk Corridor" (Score:4, Interesting)
Hoping someone with expertise can explain this statement:
As for where it could hit Earth, Rankin said that the "risk corridor" for impact runs from South America across the Atlantic to sub-Saharan Africa.
If there's still a lot of uncertainty around whether it will impact the earth at all, how can astronomers predict where on earth it is likely to strike? My simplistic assumption would be that if the error bars on our observations are big enough that we don't know if it'll hit, those same error bars would also mean that we aren't able to predict so precisely where that impact would be.
Re:"Risk Corridor" (Score:4, Insightful)
Presumably they can work out which side of the planet is going to be facing the rock as it comes in.
Re: "Risk Corridor" (Score:4, Funny)
Re: (Score:2, Informative)
They know its trajectory and that its currently moving away from earth. They know when it will orbit back around. Based on this info they know what part of earth will be facing the angle of incident. What they dont have nailed down is a degree or two of trajectory which could amount to hundreds of thousands of miles. Still a near miss in the grand scope. However they have a good approximation of where the earth is facing and the axial tilt angled toward the asteroid. This gives them a slice of area to indi
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When the time comes I bet these areas are going to be no fly and no ship zones.
Well, everybody on that side of the earth will just have to travel to the other side on that day.
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What are you doing?
We don't want to unbalance the Earth like that - we'll make a wobble in the planetary rotation!
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The hit chance will have been log calculated by then, as well as the exact hit point, give or take a couple hundred kilometers, to account for minute gravitational trajectory shifts.
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the real problem is going to be water strike vs a crater. A crater strike that big could create a local cooling effect from all the dust attenuating the sun. Maybe a regional micro ice-age that lats for a few years. A water strike will probably create a tsunami that is farther reaching and destruction more geographically spread out. You dont want to be a container ship in the wake of that mess for sure. I want to say a land strike would be favorable, but I am just not sure TBH.
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By the time it will reach earth and either hit or miss, we still know which side of earth is facing to it.
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Because we can simulate the rotation of the earth over time and project the ballistic path of the rock? There's some margin of error in the simulation, which is why they can only narrow it down to that "risk corridor" because they don't even know if we're really in the ballistic path yet.
Great (Score:3)
So as I celibrate my 52nd birthday I can either watch it fly by the Earth and take photos with my telescope or go out with a bang!
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You don't liver there, right?
He certainly lungs to liver there, but he can't stomach the brain drain.
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Dammit, don't remind me how old I am. Even my 6-digit UID makes me look old these days.
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Let me guess. late 40's?
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Agreed
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celibrate
That's a typo for quite a few possible words, all of them kind of fitting the rest of the comment.
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METEOR 2032! (Score:4, Funny)
And they are... (Score:1)
And they are only 1% maybe confident in this assessment which is 50-50 in probability, perhaps, possibly. :)
JoshK.
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Just slap some tariffs on that asteroid... (Score:1)
1 in 83 (Score:1)
Now it's a shooting match! (Score:2)
This or Apophis in 2036? Place your bets, people! You may not survive to get the payout if one actually hits, but think of how big that payout could be if you guess right?
Why worry (Score:2)
"People should absolutely not worry about this yet,"
As for where it could hit Earth, Rankin said that the "risk corridor" for impact runs from South America across the Atlantic to sub-Saharan Africa.
I can't help but think that if the strike region was the US and Europe there would be a bit of worry, at least talking about intercept missions.
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I can't help but think that if the strike region was the US and Europe there would be a bit of worry, at least talking about intercept missions.
Has anyone checked for valuable minerals? This might actually be a goldmine!
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There's still plenty of time for that. I'm sure Musk has someone working some maths to see if they can bill the US government for a cargo mission to deliver a W89 warhead within the vicinity of this thing at exorbitant cost, so he can put it in Orange Caligula's ear.
The asteroid that rocked my world (Score:2)
Well, it will solve the Year 2038 problem (Score:5, Funny)
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Oh, so you don't want your mobile or watch, etc, to survive?
Veruca Halides (Score:2)