As Space Traffic Crowds Earth Orbit: a Push for Global Cooperation (reuters.com) 28
An anonymous reader shared this report from Reuters:
The rapid increase in satellites and space junk will make low Earth orbit unusable unless companies and countries cooperate and share the data needed to manage that most accessible region of space, experts and industry insiders said. A United Nations panel on space traffic coordination in late October determined that urgent action was necessary and called for a comprehensive shared database of orbital objects as well as an international framework to track and manage them. More than 14,000 satellites including some 3,500 inactive surround the globe in low Earth orbit, showed data from U.S.-based Slingshot Aerospace. Alongside those are about 120 million pieces of debris from launches, collisions and wear-and-tear of which only a few thousand are large enough to track... [T]here is no centralised system that all space-faring nations can leverage and even persuading them to use such a system has many obstacles. Whereas some countries are willing to share data, others fear compromising security, particularly as satellites are often dual-use and include defence purposes. Moreover, enterprises are keen to guard commercial secrets.
In the meantime, the mess multiplies. A Chinese rocket stage exploded in August, adding thousands of fragments of debris to low Earth orbit. In June, a defunct Russian satellite exploded, scattering thousands of shards which forced astronauts on the International Space Station to take shelter for an hour... Projections point to tens of thousands more satellites entering orbit in the coming years. The potential financial risk of collisions is likely to be $556 million over five years, based on a modelled scenario with a 3.13% annual collision probability and $111 million in yearly damages, said Montreal-based NorthStar Earth & Space...
[Aarti Holla-Maini, director of the U.N . Office for Outer Space Affairs], said the October panel aimed to bring together public- and private-sector experts to outline steps needed to start work on coordination. It will present its findings at a committee meeting next year. Global cooperation is essential to developing enforceable rules akin to those used by the International Civil Aviation Organization for air traffic, industry experts told Reuters. Such effort would involve the use of existing tools, such as databases, telescopes, radars and other sensors to track objects while improving coverage, early detection and data precision. Yet geopolitical tension and reluctance to share data with nations deemed unfriendly as well as commercial concerns over protecting proprietary information and competitive advantages remain significant barriers. That leaves operators of orbital equipment relying on informal or semi-formal methods of avoiding collisions, such as drawing on data from the U.S. Space Force or groups like the Space Data Association. However, this can involve issues such as accountability and inconsistent data standards.
"The top challenges are speed — as consensus-building takes time — and trust," Holla-Maini said. "Some countries simply can't communicate with others, but the U.N. can facilitate this process. Speed is our biggest enemy, but there's no alternative. It must be done."
Data from Slingshot Aerospace shows a 17% rise in close approaches per satellite over the past year, according to the article. (It adds that SpaceX data "showed Starlink satellites performed nearly 50,000 collision-avoidance manoeuvres in the first half of 2024, about double the previous six months...)
The European Space Agency, which has fewer spacecraft than SpaceX, said in 2021 its manoeuvres have increased to three or four times per craft versus a historical average of one."
In the meantime, the mess multiplies. A Chinese rocket stage exploded in August, adding thousands of fragments of debris to low Earth orbit. In June, a defunct Russian satellite exploded, scattering thousands of shards which forced astronauts on the International Space Station to take shelter for an hour... Projections point to tens of thousands more satellites entering orbit in the coming years. The potential financial risk of collisions is likely to be $556 million over five years, based on a modelled scenario with a 3.13% annual collision probability and $111 million in yearly damages, said Montreal-based NorthStar Earth & Space...
[Aarti Holla-Maini, director of the U.N . Office for Outer Space Affairs], said the October panel aimed to bring together public- and private-sector experts to outline steps needed to start work on coordination. It will present its findings at a committee meeting next year. Global cooperation is essential to developing enforceable rules akin to those used by the International Civil Aviation Organization for air traffic, industry experts told Reuters. Such effort would involve the use of existing tools, such as databases, telescopes, radars and other sensors to track objects while improving coverage, early detection and data precision. Yet geopolitical tension and reluctance to share data with nations deemed unfriendly as well as commercial concerns over protecting proprietary information and competitive advantages remain significant barriers. That leaves operators of orbital equipment relying on informal or semi-formal methods of avoiding collisions, such as drawing on data from the U.S. Space Force or groups like the Space Data Association. However, this can involve issues such as accountability and inconsistent data standards.
"The top challenges are speed — as consensus-building takes time — and trust," Holla-Maini said. "Some countries simply can't communicate with others, but the U.N. can facilitate this process. Speed is our biggest enemy, but there's no alternative. It must be done."
Data from Slingshot Aerospace shows a 17% rise in close approaches per satellite over the past year, according to the article. (It adds that SpaceX data "showed Starlink satellites performed nearly 50,000 collision-avoidance manoeuvres in the first half of 2024, about double the previous six months...)
The European Space Agency, which has fewer spacecraft than SpaceX, said in 2021 its manoeuvres have increased to three or four times per craft versus a historical average of one."
Global cooperation, right (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: (Score:3)
"I'm sure it will work out fine" - said 99% of humans everywhere.
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Not that many. The human race is only about 80% idiots.
Re:Global cooperation, right (Score:5, Informative)
Yeah I'm not confident on this one either. We cant even seem to get cooperation on something that could end our species (The last time the siberian permafrost melted was around the end of the permian era, after the temperatures rose 4c over about 1000 years. That added another 6c on top of that for a grand total of 10c warming, which almost sterilized the planet. As someone whos worked in climate modelling (CSIRO), that little bit of historical evidence is almost singlehandedly why many climate researchers opt out of having kids).
Politicians would rather bang dicks against each other and fight banal culture wars than actually do anything that might help the species.
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The difference with LEO is that it is a problem today, for the countries involved in launching. With plastic it's somebody else's problem down the road.
Re:Global cooperation, right (Score:4, Informative)
With plastic it's somebody else's problem down the road.
Plastic is affecting our health and the health of our biosphere right now, so, no.
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Sure, but nobody important is suffering, and they won't lose any money right now because of it.
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Sure, but nobody important is suffering, and they won't lose any money right now because of it.
First problem is that the standard villain, the 'Murricans, simply must be blamed. The countries, and people who are creating the plastic problems are by definition victims, and cannot be blamed.
That sounds snarky, is snarky, but has the side issue of being true.
I know as a troubleshooter that the very best way to fix a problem is to fix the problem, not sit back and blame a designated villain. I've done a lot of research on the issue, and the oceanic plastic issue is based on countries where people
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I've done a lot of research on the issue, and the oceanic plastic issue is based on countries where people throw plastic into the handy rivers
Over 50% of marine microplastics come from tire dust, so you're either lying about doing the research (probable) or just have zero reading comprehension (also possible given your posting history.)
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You forgot to site the single SpringerOpen study everyone sites for that statistic which does not give an actual percentage your just making up the 50% number.
Even better it's a computer model with no actual real world testing behind it. But feel free to stand on your ethical high horse looking like a moron.
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You forgot to site the single SpringerOpen study everyone sites for that statistic which does not give an actual percentage your just making up the 50% number. Even better it's a computer model with no actual real world testing behind it. But feel free to stand on your ethical high horse looking like a moron.
DrinkyPoo doesn't like me very much, so I allow him to make up whatever he likes, and to call me a liar and stupid, which argument tactic is his go to. That's okay, I cannot control him.
I've posted my research right here on Slashdot, in the past, and given the citations, and he just sees my name, and it might trigger him a bit. It's my own personal cross to bear, as I really don't want to raise his blood pressure, and it bothers me that I trigger some people so badly. Anyhow, here is some data on that -
Re:Global cooperation, right (Score:4, Interesting)
The West in general gets a lot of the blame because we are addicted to plastic. The Japanese seem to be even worse when it comes to packaging, although I've noticed in the last decade it has improved a lot and you often seen origami cardboard boxes now.
Western consumers have a preference for things in pristine condition, even stuff like fruit. They also like to see what they are getting, which mandates transparent plastic packaging. Things are changing now with the internet shopping, and efforts to reduce plastic consumption, but even so we do still use a lot of disposable, single use plastic.
From there developing countries both want to supply us and want to emulate our lifestyle. That's why it is so important that we clean up. As an example, a lot of high end electronics come in recycled, cardboard packaging, and are made of recycled plastic, and it's a selling point. Reviewers comment on it. It's premium, and plastic packaging is starting to be seen as cheap and low end. You can see it filtering down to low cost Chinese products now, with their choice of materials emulating much more expensive products. Presumably people in developing countries are starting to shift their perceptions to match Western ones too.
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The West in general gets a lot of the blame because we are addicted to plastic. The Japanese seem to be even worse when it comes to packaging, although I've noticed in the last decade it has improved a lot and you often seen origami cardboard boxes now.
Western consumers have a preference for things in pristine condition, even stuff like fruit.
And that which is not perfect is canned or cut up and frozen. The idea that we in the west must have flawless produce, not a blemish on it or we just throw it in the trash, has even sprung up a few businesses that purposely send people imperfect veggies and allows them to feel good about their saving the earth. Like the cannery not far from my place, the metric is getting the veg's at their peak, not their beauty, then canning or freezing them ASAP.
>
From there developing countries both want to supply us and want to emulate our lifestyle.
That is definitely true. A related example is how the UN i
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Politicians would rather bang dicks against each other and fight banal culture wars than actually do anything that might help the species.
Or do anything to preserve the species in the first place.
Nobody is going to do anything until (Score:1)
...it puts an eye out.
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Be sure to drink your Ovaltine.
I love living just before the collapse (Score:3)
First priority: (Score:2)
Cleaning the debris already there. It will only cause more damage than can be recovered from.
We made great strides cleaning/preventing pollution from the surface, protests to the contrary being misleading and misinformed. Start cleaning LEO, move on to GEO to maintain that 'resource', and then maintain.
Because cleaning up is maintenance. Necessary. Bill us for it, we pay for everything anyways.
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Cleaning the debris already there. It will only cause more damage than can be recovered from.
We made great strides cleaning/preventing pollution from the surface, protests to the contrary being misleading and misinformed. Start cleaning LEO, move on to GEO to maintain that 'resource', and then maintain.
Because cleaning up is maintenance. Necessary. Bill us for it, we pay for everything anyways.
You don't like LEO as a trash dump?
Let's look at a few things. Considering the present concept that somehow, the very best way to receive internet bar none, is StarLink. That's not true of course, People yak about latency - yeah, it is an issue, but bandwidth and carrying capacity is quite restricted compared to fiber. At present, the only way to increase satellite bandwidth will be to take other services band allocations.
That's just electromagnetics physics.
The point is that anything that can be pu
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"The point is that anything that can be put on fiber or wire, should be put on fiber (best) or wire. Want more bandwidth? Add more fiber channels."
Sure, seeing that the empty conduits under my (and my general neighborhood's) lawns is empty, the installed bandwidth is zero... If Wyyred had followed through and pulled actual fiber there, I would be enjoying that. But nope, the money ran out somewhere in California.
Since fiber will *not* be everywhere, Starlink has a purpose. So do the repurposed cell services
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"The point is that anything that can be put on fiber or wire, should be put on fiber (best) or wire. Want more bandwidth? Add more fiber channels."
Sure, seeing that the empty conduits under my (and my general neighborhood's) lawns is empty, the installed bandwidth is zero... If Wyyred had followed through and pulled actual fiber there, I would be enjoying that. But nope, the money ran out somewhere in California.
We have all manner of fiber here in PA, a lot hasn't been lit. But your sociopolitical uber alles outlook make no difference to the physics of the situation.
Since fiber will *not* be everywhere, Starlink has a purpose.
True dat - we have some areas north of me in PA that have no electrical service, no cellular, and a population of around
And, if you recall beyond your last chamomile tea, cable Internet service is ultimately repurposed cable tv service, clever and profitable.
Cleaning up LEO isn't a welfare project for Elon and his evil and imaginary plan to dominate the Earth, it's good business for future uses, like a commercial/private space station. Just get it done.
Triggered much? BTW, I'm not allergic to much, but Chamomile Tea causes an allergic reaction in me. Judging from the personal tone of your argument to prove me wrong, I suspect you might enjoy it if I had an anaphylactic reaction an
Re: First priority: (Score:2)
First, and I quote; "Considering the present concept that somehow, the very best way to receive internet bar none, is StarLink"...
That's not an argument I have or have ever made. Injecting unrelated and unmade (by me) into the thread, seemingly as if I made them, isn't good form. You drift off topic, I get annoyed.
Second, your seemed to be making the argument that fiber, being such an obviously superior solution, should be used virtually (giving you an out of sorts) everywhere. Financial constraints, includ
Re: (Score:2)
First, and I quote; "Considering the present concept that somehow, the very best way to receive internet bar none, is StarLink"...
That's not an argument I have or have ever made
I see, if I were to say that you made that argument, I would have said this
You believe that the very best way to receive internet is StarLink.
Do you see the difference? Do you understand the difference between referencing a person as you, or by your name is different than a generalization? Did I ever say that?
(I really do not know what your opinion is on the best way to receive the internet is - you have not stated it, not have I asked.
Injecting unrelated and unmade (by me) into the thread, seemingly as if I made them, isn't good form. You drift off topic, I get annoyed.
So very fascinating, Since you want to talk about what I am a
One or the other... (Score:2)
Dilbert Stark fans, sit down and shut up. It's cooperation... or Kessler Syndrome.
These numbers make sense to anyone? (Score:2)
"The potential financial risk of collisions is likely to be $556 million over five years, based on a modelled scenario with a 3.13% annual collision probability and $111 million in yearly damages, said Montreal-based NorthStar Earth & Space"
So, at 3% annual chance, we'll have one (that's ONE) satellite collision every 33 years on average. And that one incident will create damages totaling 3.7 Billion dollars ( in order to get down to 111 million / year )?
One collision every 33 years I buy - stuff happe