Researcher Wins Award For Debunking Longer Life Expectancies in 'Blue Zones' (theconversation.com) 20
Slashdot first covered Saul Justin Newman's work in 2019.
Now a senior research fellow at the Centre for Longitudinal Studies at University College London, Newman was recognized last week for research finding that most claims of people living over 105 are wrong. Newman's research was honored with an Ig Nobel Prize (awarded for research that makes people "laugh then think") — which led to a thought-provoking interview in the Conversation: Newman: In general, the claims about how long people are living mostly don't stack up. I've tracked down 80% of the people aged over 110 in the world (the other 20% are from countries you can't meaningfully analyse). Of those, almost none have a birth certificate. In the U.S. there are over 500 of these people; seven have a birth certificate. Even worse, only about 10% have a death certificate.
The epitome of this is blue zones, which are regions where people supposedly reach age 100 at a remarkable rate. For almost 20 years, they have been marketed to the public. They're the subject of tons of scientific work, a popular Netflix documentary, tons of cookbooks about things like the Mediterranean diet, and so on. Okinawa in Japan is one of these zones. There was a Japanese government review in 2010, which found that 82% of the people aged over 100 in Japan turned out to be dead. The secret to living to 110 was, don't register your death. [Newman says later that "In Okinawa, the best predictor of where the centenarians are is where the halls of records were bombed by the Americans during the war..."] The Japanese government has run one of the largest nutritional surveys in the world, dating back to 1975. From then until now, Okinawa has had the worst health in Japan. They've eaten the least vegetables; they've been extremely heavy drinkers....
With the Greeks, by my estimates at least 72% of centenarians were dead, missing or essentially pension-fraud cases... According to the Greek minister that hands out the pensions, over 9,000 people over the age of 100 are dead and collecting a pension at the same time. In Italy, some 30,000 "living" pension recipients were found to be dead in 1997. Regions where people most often reach 100-110 years old are the ones where there's the most pressure to commit pension fraud, and they also have the worst records.
So what's the truth on human longevity? "The question is so obscured by fraud and error and wishful thinking that we just do not know," Newman answers (suggesting physicists "develop a measure of human age that doesn't depend on documents.") In the end the truth may be much more ordinary. "Longevity is very likely tied to wealth. Rich people do lots of exercise, have low stress and eat well."
Newman also says that if the scientific community won't acknowledge their errors during his lifetime, "I guess I'll just get someone to pretend I'm still alive until that changes."
Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader schwit1 for sharing the news.
Now a senior research fellow at the Centre for Longitudinal Studies at University College London, Newman was recognized last week for research finding that most claims of people living over 105 are wrong. Newman's research was honored with an Ig Nobel Prize (awarded for research that makes people "laugh then think") — which led to a thought-provoking interview in the Conversation: Newman: In general, the claims about how long people are living mostly don't stack up. I've tracked down 80% of the people aged over 110 in the world (the other 20% are from countries you can't meaningfully analyse). Of those, almost none have a birth certificate. In the U.S. there are over 500 of these people; seven have a birth certificate. Even worse, only about 10% have a death certificate.
The epitome of this is blue zones, which are regions where people supposedly reach age 100 at a remarkable rate. For almost 20 years, they have been marketed to the public. They're the subject of tons of scientific work, a popular Netflix documentary, tons of cookbooks about things like the Mediterranean diet, and so on. Okinawa in Japan is one of these zones. There was a Japanese government review in 2010, which found that 82% of the people aged over 100 in Japan turned out to be dead. The secret to living to 110 was, don't register your death. [Newman says later that "In Okinawa, the best predictor of where the centenarians are is where the halls of records were bombed by the Americans during the war..."] The Japanese government has run one of the largest nutritional surveys in the world, dating back to 1975. From then until now, Okinawa has had the worst health in Japan. They've eaten the least vegetables; they've been extremely heavy drinkers....
With the Greeks, by my estimates at least 72% of centenarians were dead, missing or essentially pension-fraud cases... According to the Greek minister that hands out the pensions, over 9,000 people over the age of 100 are dead and collecting a pension at the same time. In Italy, some 30,000 "living" pension recipients were found to be dead in 1997. Regions where people most often reach 100-110 years old are the ones where there's the most pressure to commit pension fraud, and they also have the worst records.
So what's the truth on human longevity? "The question is so obscured by fraud and error and wishful thinking that we just do not know," Newman answers (suggesting physicists "develop a measure of human age that doesn't depend on documents.") In the end the truth may be much more ordinary. "Longevity is very likely tied to wealth. Rich people do lots of exercise, have low stress and eat well."
Newman also says that if the scientific community won't acknowledge their errors during his lifetime, "I guess I'll just get someone to pretend I'm still alive until that changes."
Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader schwit1 for sharing the news.
This is Perfect! I plan on Living Forever.. (Score:3)
Okinawa nutrition at the US military bases (Score:2)
And, yes, people die. And it's difficult for them to opt-out from marketing or other registries after they lose pulse. And because people eventually die, all studies cannot be revisited for quality control purposes.
This is all special indeed.
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And, yes, people die. And it's difficult for them to opt-out from marketing or other registries after they lose pulse.
With THAT many centenarian cases resulting in fraud, I’m more curious if there’s a pulse detected in the Greek and Italian pension management offices. Hell of an opt-out “oops”, counted by the tens of thousands. The kind of “oops” that corruptly keeps on giving until someone gives a shit enough to notice.
Why an IgNobel? (Score:5, Insightful)
Of all the weird studies awarded an IgNobel, this one should not have been. This is a legitimate study of how something we've taken for granted turned out to be completely false. And not just false, but in the case of all these supposed long lifers, fabricated.
Of course, it wouldn't do much good to let these countries know all their crowing about long life is a farce. There would certain to be excuses for why this study is wrong and they're right despite the overwhelming evidence.
With luck, this study will get more scrutiny and others will follow up to replicate the results.
Re:Why an IgNobel? (Score:5, Informative)
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There is even one example of someone receiving both, although not for the same research.
Andre Geim [wikipedia.org]
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Ig Nobels aren't an attack, but they should be funny. This year's awards https://improbable.com/ig/winn... [improbable.com] included using a pigeon inside a guided missile, studying if the hair on head of people in the Northern hemisphere swirl all in the same direction, studying swimming abilities of a dead fish.
I just picked up a few, they all made me laugh at first read. All, except this one. It's just investigation into fraud and expected issues with administration a century ago. That's why it is the most questionable I
Re:Why an IgNobel? (Score:5, Informative)
The first stories of extreme longevity were in the Caucasus Mountains, and the credit was given to yogurt consumption.
Yogurt took off as a fad food, but Americans thought it was too sour, so it was filled with sugar and turned into junk food.
Meanwhile, researchers figured out that the longevity was due to counterfeit baptismal records used to evade conscription into the Russian Army during the First World War.
Regarding an objective age measurement... (Score:3)
Is anything from our birth still in our bodies after a while? Not information like DNA's pattern holds, but atoms (I assume that's why they mentioned physicists and not biologists or chemists). If not, this seems impossible. Only a relative age based on telomeres and physical scans sounds plausible.
I know even bones are destroyed and remade over time in a constant process (vitamin D, A, and K2 work together to manage calcium). And people talk about how our various organs are effectively replaced with duplicates (hopefully) on various schedules.
Or was that whole speech from 2007 film 'The Man From Earth' hooey? Sorry I can't seem to find a transcript or clip easily. Where the guy from Star Trek (who played Flox), the biologist in this film's scenario, says we all die from slow poisoning (trying not to spoil anything by saying too much if you haven't seen it).
In that case we'd need effective records of existence to know any individual's age. Wonder if we'll ever attempt biometric measurements from birth to see how they truly relate to each other, and how they change over time? That'd also give us a measure of when that person began, assuming no cloning or grafting of limbs (people get creative or desperate sometimes).
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The atoms forming your bones are basically staying where they are, while other organs like skin are regularly completely replaced by new atoms. The "every seven year" thing is one of those wisdoms which don't live up to scrutiny.
My old Ice Hockey injuries agree completely with you. Indeed, one of the things that the folks who believe that immortality is right around the corner is that our bones and connecting structures are simply not made to last for hundreds of years.
If we somehow do manage to extend the boundaries to say, even 250 years, we're probably going to have to change our calcium bones out for titanium.
Anyone wonder why people who reach 100 are usually in bed or a wheelchair?
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Not sure how you'd verify a person's age ante-mortem, though.
The secrets to longevity! (Score:2)
1) Be born with a genome that isn't particularly susceptible to cancer.
2) Be born with a genome that protects you against all the various infections you will be exposed to during your lifetime.
3) Be born in circumstances that limit your exposure to stress and illness while providing optimal nutrition.
4) Engage in light exercise frequently. Make use of those optimal nutrition options you have available to you because you followed the advice of secret #3.
5) Avoid high risk activities.
6) Be very lucky.
7) You'
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Re: The secrets to longevity! (Score:2)
Due to the psychological effect of perceived value pricing, you just have to keep sending me money until you've spent enough for the sunk cost fallacy to kick in.
Go ahead, I'll wait.
In Soviet Georgia (Score:2)
You mean I've been guzzling Dannon Yogurt since the 1970s for nothing?
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Maybe?
Supposedly the best is Activia, but to have a significant effect you'd have to ingest enough that you wouldn't be able to eat anything else. And you'd have to keep doing it, because that stuff can't thrive in your gut like the stuff that's already there can, so it won't last.
You can also make your own yogurt from any active culture yogurt you want. A spoonful of it in a cup of milk (you can even use skim milk to go low-fat, the bacteria you want eat lactose not fat), stir, heat to 43C/110F for 8-9 h
This is discrimination (Score:4, Funny)
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You die and suddenly you can't do things like "collect a pension" or "vote", when will the oppression end?
Oh, you can still vote ...