Researcher Wins Award For Debunking Longer Life Expectancies in 'Blue Zones' (theconversation.com) 63
Slashdot first covered Saul Justin Newman's work in 2019.
Now a senior research fellow at the Centre for Longitudinal Studies at University College London, Newman was recognized last week for research finding that most claims of people living over 105 are wrong. Newman's research was honored with an Ig Nobel Prize (awarded for research that makes people "laugh then think") — which led to a thought-provoking interview in the Conversation: Newman: In general, the claims about how long people are living mostly don't stack up. I've tracked down 80% of the people aged over 110 in the world (the other 20% are from countries you can't meaningfully analyse). Of those, almost none have a birth certificate. In the U.S. there are over 500 of these people; seven have a birth certificate. Even worse, only about 10% have a death certificate.
The epitome of this is blue zones, which are regions where people supposedly reach age 100 at a remarkable rate. For almost 20 years, they have been marketed to the public. They're the subject of tons of scientific work, a popular Netflix documentary, tons of cookbooks about things like the Mediterranean diet, and so on. Okinawa in Japan is one of these zones. There was a Japanese government review in 2010, which found that 82% of the people aged over 100 in Japan turned out to be dead. The secret to living to 110 was, don't register your death. [Newman says later that "In Okinawa, the best predictor of where the centenarians are is where the halls of records were bombed by the Americans during the war..."] The Japanese government has run one of the largest nutritional surveys in the world, dating back to 1975. From then until now, Okinawa has had the worst health in Japan. They've eaten the least vegetables; they've been extremely heavy drinkers....
With the Greeks, by my estimates at least 72% of centenarians were dead, missing or essentially pension-fraud cases... According to the Greek minister that hands out the pensions, over 9,000 people over the age of 100 are dead and collecting a pension at the same time. In Italy, some 30,000 "living" pension recipients were found to be dead in 1997. Regions where people most often reach 100-110 years old are the ones where there's the most pressure to commit pension fraud, and they also have the worst records.
So what's the truth on human longevity? "The question is so obscured by fraud and error and wishful thinking that we just do not know," Newman answers (suggesting physicists "develop a measure of human age that doesn't depend on documents.") In the end the truth may be much more ordinary. "Longevity is very likely tied to wealth. Rich people do lots of exercise, have low stress and eat well."
Newman also says that if the scientific community won't acknowledge their errors during his lifetime, "I guess I'll just get someone to pretend I'm still alive until that changes."
Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader schwit1 for sharing the news.
Now a senior research fellow at the Centre for Longitudinal Studies at University College London, Newman was recognized last week for research finding that most claims of people living over 105 are wrong. Newman's research was honored with an Ig Nobel Prize (awarded for research that makes people "laugh then think") — which led to a thought-provoking interview in the Conversation: Newman: In general, the claims about how long people are living mostly don't stack up. I've tracked down 80% of the people aged over 110 in the world (the other 20% are from countries you can't meaningfully analyse). Of those, almost none have a birth certificate. In the U.S. there are over 500 of these people; seven have a birth certificate. Even worse, only about 10% have a death certificate.
The epitome of this is blue zones, which are regions where people supposedly reach age 100 at a remarkable rate. For almost 20 years, they have been marketed to the public. They're the subject of tons of scientific work, a popular Netflix documentary, tons of cookbooks about things like the Mediterranean diet, and so on. Okinawa in Japan is one of these zones. There was a Japanese government review in 2010, which found that 82% of the people aged over 100 in Japan turned out to be dead. The secret to living to 110 was, don't register your death. [Newman says later that "In Okinawa, the best predictor of where the centenarians are is where the halls of records were bombed by the Americans during the war..."] The Japanese government has run one of the largest nutritional surveys in the world, dating back to 1975. From then until now, Okinawa has had the worst health in Japan. They've eaten the least vegetables; they've been extremely heavy drinkers....
With the Greeks, by my estimates at least 72% of centenarians were dead, missing or essentially pension-fraud cases... According to the Greek minister that hands out the pensions, over 9,000 people over the age of 100 are dead and collecting a pension at the same time. In Italy, some 30,000 "living" pension recipients were found to be dead in 1997. Regions where people most often reach 100-110 years old are the ones where there's the most pressure to commit pension fraud, and they also have the worst records.
So what's the truth on human longevity? "The question is so obscured by fraud and error and wishful thinking that we just do not know," Newman answers (suggesting physicists "develop a measure of human age that doesn't depend on documents.") In the end the truth may be much more ordinary. "Longevity is very likely tied to wealth. Rich people do lots of exercise, have low stress and eat well."
Newman also says that if the scientific community won't acknowledge their errors during his lifetime, "I guess I'll just get someone to pretend I'm still alive until that changes."
Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader schwit1 for sharing the news.
This is Perfect! I plan on Living Forever.. (Score:4, Funny)
Solution to population decline right here (Score:2)
starting humor
pay higher and higher pensions and people live much longer and the population doesn't decline, right?
And all those ever longer living pensioners will produce no pollution, go to the doctor, get sick, consume food, etc, etc.
So average medicare costs per medicare aged person will go down, and politicians of all stripes will claim 'victory over high health costs', 'victory over pollution', 'victory over crime rates per capita'
end humor
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..I just won't tell anyone about it, especially the Government ;)
Don;t laugh, it might actually work.
Keith Richards has been dead for 15 years now, it's just that no-one has told him.
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Don;t laugh, it might actually work. Keith Richards has been dead for 15 years now, it's just that no-one has told him.
Keith Richards is proof that Vampires exist. There is no earthly way he should be alive with the amount of drugs, alcohol and body abuse he's done to himself. And I think William Shatner is the same except he actually took care of himself. :)
Okinawa nutrition at the US military bases (Score:2)
And, yes, people die. And it's difficult for them to opt-out from marketing or other registries after they lose pulse. And because people eventually die, all studies cannot be revisited for quality control purposes.
This is all special indeed.
Re:Okinawa nutrition at the US military bases (Score:4)
And, yes, people die. And it's difficult for them to opt-out from marketing or other registries after they lose pulse.
With THAT many centenarian cases resulting in fraud, I’m more curious if there’s a pulse detected in the Greek and Italian pension management offices. Hell of an opt-out “oops”, counted by the tens of thousands. The kind of “oops” that corruptly keeps on giving until someone gives a shit enough to notice.
Why an IgNobel? (Score:5, Insightful)
Of all the weird studies awarded an IgNobel, this one should not have been. This is a legitimate study of how something we've taken for granted turned out to be completely false. And not just false, but in the case of all these supposed long lifers, fabricated.
Of course, it wouldn't do much good to let these countries know all their crowing about long life is a farce. There would certain to be excuses for why this study is wrong and they're right despite the overwhelming evidence.
With luck, this study will get more scrutiny and others will follow up to replicate the results.
Re:Why an IgNobel? (Score:5, Informative)
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There is even one example of someone receiving both, although not for the same research.
Andre Geim [wikipedia.org]
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Ig Nobels aren't an attack, but they should be funny. This year's awards https://improbable.com/ig/winn... [improbable.com] included using a pigeon inside a guided missile, studying if the hair on head of people in the Northern hemisphere swirl all in the same direction, studying swimming abilities of a dead fish.
I just picked up a few, they all made me laugh at first read. All, except this one. It's just investigation into fraud and expected issues with administration a century ago. That's why it is the most questionable I
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Agreed, this one wasn't at all funny, but it did deserve recognition somewhere. It could be the committee realized nobody else was likely to do it.
I was glad to see that they have continued the tradition of Miss Sweetie-poo. Every award ceremony and political debate should hire one.
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Miss Sweetie Poo should be present at all of our daily scrums too.
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Agreed. Almost all Ig Nobel awards are for "legitimate" research.
Then there are a few snarky awards (for the use of imaginary numbers in economics, which one of my past employers, and many others, won for creative accounting methods in the wake of the Arthur Andersen scandals); but these are rare next to the legitimate Ig Nobel laureates.
Re:Why an IgNobel? (Score:5, Informative)
The first stories of extreme longevity were in the Caucasus Mountains, and the credit was given to yogurt consumption.
Yogurt took off as a fad food, but Americans thought it was too sour, so it was filled with sugar and turned into junk food.
Meanwhile, researchers figured out that the longevity was due to counterfeit baptismal records used to evade conscription into the Russian Army during the First World War.
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Ignobles are not only for bad Science. For example, the Dunning-Kruger Effect got one and that research is among the most important research of the last century.
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I'm sorry, but why do you think that makes it bad for science?
The IgNobel awards are NOT for fraudulent research. They're for valid research that is "weird".
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They are for "bad science". Learn to read?
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Or rather "not" for "bad science".
Regarding an objective age measurement... (Score:3)
Is anything from our birth still in our bodies after a while? Not information like DNA's pattern holds, but atoms (I assume that's why they mentioned physicists and not biologists or chemists). If not, this seems impossible. Only a relative age based on telomeres and physical scans sounds plausible.
I know even bones are destroyed and remade over time in a constant process (vitamin D, A, and K2 work together to manage calcium). And people talk about how our various organs are effectively replaced with duplicates (hopefully) on various schedules.
Or was that whole speech from 2007 film 'The Man From Earth' hooey? Sorry I can't seem to find a transcript or clip easily. Where the guy from Star Trek (who played Flox), the biologist in this film's scenario, says we all die from slow poisoning (trying not to spoil anything by saying too much if you haven't seen it).
In that case we'd need effective records of existence to know any individual's age. Wonder if we'll ever attempt biometric measurements from birth to see how they truly relate to each other, and how they change over time? That'd also give us a measure of when that person began, assuming no cloning or grafting of limbs (people get creative or desperate sometimes).
Re:Regarding an objective age measurement... (Score:4, Informative)
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The atoms forming your bones are basically staying where they are, while other organs like skin are regularly completely replaced by new atoms. The "every seven year" thing is one of those wisdoms which don't live up to scrutiny.
My old Ice Hockey injuries agree completely with you. Indeed, one of the things that the folks who believe that immortality is right around the corner is that our bones and connecting structures are simply not made to last for hundreds of years.
If we somehow do manage to extend the boundaries to say, even 250 years, we're probably going to have to change our calcium bones out for titanium.
Anyone wonder why people who reach 100 are usually in bed or a wheelchair?
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That's not the right answer. We've already got cells that specialize in destroying bones and other cells that specialize in building them. (Osteoclasts and I forget the other). What we'll need to do if figure out how to program them. (It's probably easier than uploading.)
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That's not the right answer. We've already got cells that specialize in destroying bones and other cells that specialize in building them. (Osteoclasts and I forget the other). What we'll need to do if figure out how to program them. (It's probably easier than uploading.)
I for one am looking forward to a complete rebuilding of my legs in your easy fix to skeletal problems. Better be outpatient, so easy will make certain that will happen. To Infinity and beyond! 8^/
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Even the atoms in the bones will be replaced over time, just not as quickly as the skin.
The bones are in a continuous process of being broken down by osteoclasts and re-built by osteoblasts.
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Also the rate of cell replacement varies a lot between organs. There are other matters though. Parts of a cell, are they regularly replaced? The atoms in a protein, do they get replaced, with electrons leaving and others rejoining? What about the quarks? Bones are kind of special here because most of a bone is deposits made by cell not cells themselves.
Re:Regarding an objective age measurement... (Score:5, Interesting)
Not sure how you'd verify a person's age ante-mortem, though.
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The proteins in the lenses of your eyes are never replaced, and they gradually accumulate damage over time. This is part of what causes cataracts. There is probably some way of converting the degree of damage into an age estimate, but that has a couple of huge problems. First, the damage is probably affected by factors like exposure to UV light, so lifestyle might make a big difference. Second, you need to sample the lens to test it, so you ca
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If this idea were true, then why do tattoos last a lifetime? If literally every cell in your body is replaced every few years, how could the ink stay put for a lifetime?
Re: Regarding an objective age measurement... (Score:2)
Tattoos change over time, and are just below the layers of skin that change most rapidly.
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Sure, they change, but they don't go away. If all the cells were replaced, and the old cells were disposed of, it seems that the ink connected to them would go away with the dead cells.
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My father's anchor tattoo remained recognizable for his entire life ...say 50 years. So depending on the location they don't change that much.
The secrets to longevity! (Score:4, Insightful)
1) Be born with a genome that isn't particularly susceptible to cancer.
2) Be born with a genome that protects you against all the various infections you will be exposed to during your lifetime.
3) Be born in circumstances that limit your exposure to stress and illness while providing optimal nutrition.
4) Engage in light exercise frequently. Make use of those optimal nutrition options you have available to you because you followed the advice of secret #3.
5) Avoid high risk activities.
6) Be very lucky.
7) You're still going to be dead after a century, more or less... but you might be a lot healthier and comfortable and have a shorter period of decline at the end than most others.
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Re: The secrets to longevity! (Score:2)
Due to the psychological effect of perceived value pricing, you just have to keep sending me money until you've spent enough for the sunk cost fallacy to kick in.
Go ahead, I'll wait.
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You just have to think I have some magical hotline directly to "God". Then believe me when I tell you "God" has some grand plan, and when you die it's because he has some super special reason in the plan why YOU in particular need to die earlier than "what you paid for".
Now pay up, sheep! Ahem, I mean "member of my flock".
AKA: how most "religions" have worked for thousands of years now.
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Re: The secrets to longevity! (Score:2)
So the opposite of this documentary? https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0... [imdb.com]
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When you stratify people by training time, the top 2.5% (that's elite performers, your marathoners and sportsmen) still have even better life expectancy than top 25%.
Is it surprising that the population of elite performers who spend the most time training does not include very many people in poor health or on their deathbed? In fact, the amount of exercise people get is likely as driven by how healthy they are as the other way around. To be healthy you need to stay active and to stay active you need to be healthy. I think exercise is far more a quality of life issue than a factor in length of life.
The fact is that there are all sorts of people who engage in unhealthy
In Soviet Georgia (Score:2)
You mean I've been guzzling Dannon Yogurt since the 1970s for nothing?
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Maybe?
Supposedly the best is Activia, but to have a significant effect you'd have to ingest enough that you wouldn't be able to eat anything else. And you'd have to keep doing it, because that stuff can't thrive in your gut like the stuff that's already there can, so it won't last.
You can also make your own yogurt from any active culture yogurt you want. A spoonful of it in a cup of milk (you can even use skim milk to go low-fat, the bacteria you want eat lactose not fat), stir, heat to 43C/110F for 8-9 h
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No. Yogurt is beneficial...especially after you've had some antibiotics. So it's not for nothing...but it's sure no panacea.
This is discrimination (Score:5, Funny)
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You die and suddenly you can't do things like "collect a pension" or "vote", when will the oppression end?
Oh, you can still vote ...
Blue Marketing? (Score:2)
With that much fraud detected across so many labeled as “blue zones”, I’d like to know if there’s a central organization that (secretly or publicly) profited off the marketing, tourism, real estate, and everything else that was marketed to promote these “special” places on Earth.
The “longevity” pile of bullshit is so high on this one no one can see anything else. So..follow the money? Is there a Bluesoftwoodrock out there somewhere snapping up 10% for the Bi
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Its called human nature. What don't you understand about the clickbait industry?
Theres little to “understand’ about human nature, other than recognizing the fact that not a damn thing has changed since PT Barnum created the sucker-born-every-minute standard.
”Blue Zone” marketing being nothing but lies and bullshit, grew well beyond your usual “clickbait” headline that gets ignored and forgotten by next week. So, unless you’re covering for someone, answer my question.
Rate My Age (Score:5, Funny)
regions where people supposedly reach age 100 at a remarkable rate.
If I unfortunately live in one of these places, how do I reach age 100 at a slower rate?!
The wrong metric (Score:2)
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I think that "personal trainer" is full of BS. The majority of people over age 70 are over 85 so even if his numbers are right, its lies damn lies and statistics.
Its impossible to tell how old someone is to any degree of accuracy just by looking at them. There are plenty of healthy old people who look ten years older than they are because they have spent a good part of their lives in the sun.
I think you are right that life style and diet matters. Especially for the quality of people's lives as they age. B
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Most government health agencies & age-focused charities propagate information to the elderly on dealing with falls & how to get help in an emergency, rather than die alone because
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I'm talking about things like people dying shortly after they retire, which is very common.
That's better alternative than dying before you retire.
it's a lot more common than you'd think.
People of all ages falling and not being able to get up is probably more common than you think. But certainly as people get frailer they are more likely to fall and it may be more difficult for them to get up on their own. In general, the older the population the more frail people there are in it. But this discussion was about people living longer. I suspect if you looked at the population of people now close to 100 and the population of those same peop
Olive oil (Score:4, Funny)
So is olive oil not a thing anymore?
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Pension fraud (Score:2)
Seems like the best way to prevent such fraud would be to require verification at least once a year when someone reaches a certain age that they're not dead. With a very stiff penalties for fraudsters.
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Not just that they're nor dead, but also didn't die some time ago. A fraudster can adopt their late parent's identity.
Why an IgNobel? (Score:2)
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This reveals the secret. (Score:4, Insightful)