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Mars

Elon Musk: Starships Launch for Mars in 2026. Crewed Flights Possible By 2028 (nextbigfuture.com) 210

"The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years," Elon Musk posted on X.com this weekend.

Musk said the launches will happen when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens, which the science blog NextBigFuture identifies as "about November through December 2026." Musk noted that the 2026 missions "will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars," but "If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years."

"Flight rate will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self-sustaining city in about 20 years. Being multiplanetary will vastly increase the probable lifespan of consciousness, as we will no longer have all our eggs, literally and metabolically, on one planet."
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Elon Musk: Starships Launch for Mars in 2026. Crewed Flights Possible By 2028

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  • Let's hope this announcement is a little more accurate timewise than the ones about full self-driving Teslas over the last....8 years is it now?
    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by Phasedshift ( 415064 )

      Full self driving (not autopilot!) is already there, working great and has very little issues (/far/ safer than humans). Not sure what you're going on about...

      • Full self driving *Supervised* is there, but still requires human drivers to intervene semi-regularly, thus is classed as Level 2+, not even Level 3 limited autonomy. Still waiting for independent confirmation of actual safety, but Tesla hasn't allowed access to the data and Musk's claims aren't the most reliable.

        The closest Tesla has to real self driving (with no human in the driver seat) is basically restricted to US car parks, and the human is still legally responsible for any faulty actions.

        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          by Phasedshift ( 415064 )

          Ignore Musk. There are hundreds of full videos of it (12.5+), it's full self driving at this point, regardless of a third party verification. Saying it doesn't exist is dishonest. Saying you wouldn't trust it (yet or otherwise) is fair - but - for all of Musk's faults, being cautious for something like that shouldn't be one of them.

          • by Namarrgon ( 105036 ) on Monday September 09, 2024 @03:54AM (#64773444) Homepage

            it's full self driving at this point, regardless of a third party verification. Saying it doesn't exist is dishonest.

            I'm saying that full self driving - as defined by the SAE [sae.org], not the marketing term - does not exist outside of a car park, because the car requires a human driver. Tesla themselves state that the vehicle is not autonomous. The robotaxis promised years ago to earn money while you slept are nowhere to be found.

            Maybe you feel that (as of 12.5) it could drive itself without a human in the driver seat - and for basic driving in common circumstances, I'd probably agree. A number of self-driving systems can do that much (see the self-driving Cannonball Run [yahoo.com], currently led by a Prius with comma.ai's system with a 98.4% run). But the world is full of uncommon circumstances, and it has to cope with all those too, which has yet to be demonstrated . Other companies have received commercial licences for autonomous self-driving cars, and have completed tens of thousands of trips without a driver, but Tesla has yet to apply [nbcnews.com].

            It's just not autonomous yet. Maybe "Actually Self Driving" will be announced in October, but I'm not holding my breath.

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            Tesla "full self driving" is very, very far from being safe and reliable, or able to drive itself in all conditions (level 5 autonomy, first predicted by Musk for 2016). It still has issues with trains crossings, with disconnecting milliseconds before a crash, phantom braking, being unable to make certain turns (especially on multi-lane roads), and much more.

          • Ignore Musk. There are hundreds of full videos of it (12.5+), it's full self driving at this point, regardless of a third party verification.

            Fuck off. Third party verification is the only way you ever know if stuff like this really works! Of course Tesla and Musk will tell you it works, they want you to buy it! And of course Tesla buyers will tell you it works, they paid good money for it and the sunk cost fallacy exists. So if they're the only people you can find telling me it works then I'm assuming it's bullshit.

      • Yup every time a Tesla sh*ts the bed on autopilot we get breathless coverage, not as much about, say, a moron that drove into a nail salon at 70 and killed a woman. I know the technology has limits, itâ(TM)s still better than a lot of the drivers out there.
        • From what I've heard, Tesla has made a system thats as good as a teenaged male with a learners permit. That's likely optimisitc, but basically it means it should be treated with as much trust as insurance companies treat them ( basically if run at the same rate as teenage males 2k deaths per that population). Even getting safe as them, which is an achievement, is not a reason to replace older safer drivers with them. Doing so now would drastically increase the fatal crashes.
    • by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Sunday September 08, 2024 @10:58PM (#64773134)

      The difference here is SpaceX can launch a big enough rocket to get to Mars. Whether they can manage a tail landing successfully is questionable - the atmosphere and gravity being different, and the landing area being unprepared. It's not like they can just do a dozen rapid iterations to improve, they need to get it right the first time, on full auto the whole way.

      And I doubt they'll be doing ISRU and refueling on Mars for a return trip.

      The planned Chinese mission is currently more interesting since we have no idea if they can do it but also no reason to believe they can't.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        The Chinese already have a rover on Mars. They have demonstrated the ability to soft land, and to return samples from the Moon.

        Assuming they just want to take a sample from where they land, they have already landed significant mass and can replace the rover with a sample collecting lander and rocket to get it back into Mars orbit. The rest is just a case of sending enough mass to Mars orbit for the return journey, i.e. fuel.

        • by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Monday September 09, 2024 @06:49AM (#64773676)

          That's not a 'just', though. Sample return from Mars is a huge step beyond landing on it due to the fuel requirements alone.

          It's like going from sub-orbital trips to achieving orbit.

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            You mean like the US went from sub-orbital to orbital manned trip in less than a year?

            The real question is if the Chinese have the capability of putting that much mass in orbit. They do, even today, but will likely use Long March 10 which is due to take its first flight in the next year or two. They are a bit ahead of schedule.

            Today they have the Long March 5B, which can put 25t in LEO. That's enough for a Mars sample return mission. Their lunar ascender was around 700kg, Mars one will be larger. Getting fr

    • Timetable subject to change if Musk pitches a fit and fires the entire Mars team. Ask anyone with a Chevy EV how they're liking that Supercharger access that they were promised back in Spring. /s

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by tragedy ( 27079 )

      The supposed advantage of SpaceX was that they could build rockets better than the traditional rocket companies. Trouble is, if you look at Starship, they've been developing it for 12 years already. Even if Musk's prediction is correct and, let's face it, he's made this prediction before with various dates that have already passed, that pushes it to 14 years. The Saturn V development process started in 1961. By 1967 they had a successful unmanned flight. So that's six years to get to approximately the point

      • by Namarrgon ( 105036 ) on Monday September 09, 2024 @01:37AM (#64773300) Homepage

        The supposed advantage of SpaceX was that they could build rockets better than the traditional rocket companies

        Well they kinda have done, the Falcon 9 is far and away the most successful rocket ever built, by pretty much any metric. It's also the only orbital rocket with any practical reuse (the shuttle did more but with hugely greater cost and time).

        Starship is difficult to compare to other rockets, as it's unique in so many ways, from its assembly-line stainless steel construction, full-flow staged combustion engines, unique landing approach, and massive payloads, to its focus on rapid reuse of both first and second stages. Development time is longer than the Saturn rockets (if you don't count their Jupiter missile predecessors), but it's quicker than SLS (not counting its Constellation predecessor), for a vastly more ambitious design (and much lower costs). If and when they get that working, it will change the game again.

        But Mars? Yeah, I don't think anybody's taking Musk's Mars timelines seriously :-)

        • by tragedy ( 27079 )

          Sure, the Falcon is great, but I was mostly focused on the development time for Starship. I suppose I might be being overly critical of the time it's taken specifically because of Musk's crazy timeline claims. He has been claiming just a few years until SpaceX lands people on Mars for quite a long time now. Although sometimes he's a little more reasonable and projects out to about 2029 or so. The point was mostly that Musk's announcements about dates for just about anything are generally completely worthles

      • Trouble is, if you look at Starship, they've been developing it for 12 years already.

        The Saturn V development process started in 1961.

        By your own standards, you're being hypocritical here. Test firings of the F-1 engine used on Saturn V started in 1957. Test firings of Raptor 1 started in 2016. By what logic do you justify the "the start of Saturn V's development process" POST-dating its own engine's test firing by 4 years but the Starship's one PRE-dating the first test firing by 4 years?

        • by tragedy ( 27079 )

          The F1 was an attempt to fulfill an air force contract for a super-heavy rocket engine. The original intended purpose is unclear, but it predates the Saturn V program. Also, it was the E1, not the F1. The F1 didn't fire until years later. When they built the Saturn V, they essentially picked an "off the shelf" engine to continue development on and include in the rocket. The story on Starship is quite different. Starship was originally going to have Merlin 2 engines, which would have been a scaled up version

          • Also, it was the E1, not the F1. The F1 didn't fire until years later.

            I was talking about the F-1 though, not the E-1, since that's what Saturn V used.

            When they built the Saturn V, they essentially picked an "off the shelf" engine

            ...and there it is. You can't compare the two timelines if one of them contains things the other one doesn't. Especially if you consider that Raptor has *already* undergone two major redesigns since 2016. In light of the fact that engines like F-1, RS-25 received *zero* major redesigns (RS-25 in decades, in fact), it's pretty hard to argue that SpaceX's timelines for development aren't vastly shorter than their competitors'.

            So, I'm still pretty convinced that SpaceX has no magic sauce that lets them do things faster than traditional rocket companies.

            I h

  • I can't wait to read about the first automated landing on Mars in 2033. (you have to adjust for elon time inflation)

    • I can't wait to read about the first automated landing on Mars in 2033. (you have to adjust for elon time inflation)

      I was thinking with where Starship is now in development, and the FAA's glacial pace in approving new launches, we'll definitely be waiting until the 2030s before we see a full Starship trip from Earth to Mars. Probably 2040s before humans are involved. And probably 150 years before there's a self-sustaining city there.

  • Yawn (Score:5, Interesting)

    by misnohmer ( 1636461 ) on Monday September 09, 2024 @12:04AM (#64773226)
    Yet another Elon prediction to get some media attention. Any Elon timeline past end of the day is a pipe dream. I prefer to focus on accomplishments rather than aspirations. Anyone want to by Model 3's with FSD from me for only $200K each? Elon said they will be worth $225K or more by end of last year, so if you believe Elon delivers but late, I got a great investment for you. If you buy more than a thousand of them, I will give you a 10% volume discount, only $180K per Model 3.
    • He said Falcon 9 would be reusable, and it is. How predictions regarding space have been accurate but the Tesla FSD stuff seems lagged .. but it is improving. If each version wasn't an improvement on the previous you'd have a point, but they keep iterating and making it better. Anyway why are we talking about Tesla? SpaceX has been delivering on its promises. That's undeniable.

      • Re:Yawn (Score:5, Interesting)

        by misnohmer ( 1636461 ) on Monday September 09, 2024 @04:03AM (#64773454)

        SpaceX has been delivering on its promises.

        Really? Hmm, in 2018 Elon/Space X took a down payment from Yusaku Maezawa to take him around the Moon by end of 2023. Elon's exact words about the down payment: “It’s a non-trivial amount. It has a material impact on the BFR program. It makes a difference.”.
        https://spacenews.com/spacex-s... [spacenews.com]
        I encourage you to research yourself how Space X delivered on this Elon announcement. It was similar as this announcement of flights to Mars, except back then he actually got some billionaire to plunk down a sizable deposit on Elon's (or Space X's) aspirations, not so much this time (or did I miss someone pre-paying for a trip to Mars by 2028?).

        Anyway why are we talking about Tesla?

        We are talking Elon's aspirations which include both Tesla and Space X (and Boring Company, Neuralink, and his other ventures). Elon under-delivers and uses fine print (sometimes added after the fact) to excuse it. Not just FSD. I bought a P85D in 2015 when Elon advertised it as a 700hp car. Tesla side said "691hp motor power". Took a couple of years and a lawsuit to get Tesla to admit that there was a fuse in the battery which prevented it from delivering even 500hp, the actual best case number P85D could produce was 463hp when all the planets aligned just right. Elon's official response was he didn't lie, the motors were technically capable of 691hp, just not in the car he sold them in. My car would have required a 50% power boost to reach the number Elon and Tesla advertised. Similarly for another Model S I got in 2016, which was supposed to be FSD capable, well, officially it's mostly capable - the seats are FSD ready, floor mats too, windshield, etc. Except that car will never drive itself and make its owner money driving people for the Tesla Ridesharing Network Elon advertised in 2016, but people like you will say "well, he got close, 90% of those cars' components are FSD capable". LOL

        Elon used to talk big but had great achievements to come with the talk. Tesla was actually one of them, despite the less than 100% delivery. Unfortunately last few years he's mostly talk and no results (great under city tunnels autonomously carrying people and their cars, FSD, humanoid robots, ground-to-ground rocket trips from L.A. to London in less than an hour, etc ). He is also saying anything he can to get in the news cycle. When is the cage fight with Zuck happening exactly?

      • He said Falcon 9 would be reusable, and it is.

        He said the Falcon 9 would be fully reusable, and it's not. He said that in 2005 they'd be relaunching in 2010. Instead, as with everything Elon says, it is a partially reusable (first stage only) vehicle that didn't get partially reused until 2018.

        His companies deliver amazing achievements. But his predictions are always a combination of false, late, or both. The Falcon is an excellent example of something identical to his FSD predictions. He delivered FSD many years late, and in the end it isn't "fully se

        • I just watched a Falcon9 booster land for the 22nd time IIRC. After engine shutdown it tipped over and had to be towed to recovery. 22 flights. All the contractors who helped get us to the moon said you could not re-use a booster. Could not be done.
    • by Tom ( 822 )

      Yet another Elon prediction to get some media attention. Any Elon timeline past end of the day is a pipe dream.

      We've successfully landed multipler rovers on Mars.

      If the plan is to send a starship and see if it can land - that sounds like it's a realistic goal.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Musk predicted Starship taking 12 people around the Moon in 2023. That was a climb-down after missing his first "humans around the Moon" prediction of 2018.

      He said humans would be on Mars by 2024 too.

      My favourite recent one was when he claimed that the Cybertruck could be used as a boat, able to cross small seas. When it finally released the manual said not to take it in the carwash because that could destroy it.

      • When it finally released the manual said not to take it in the carwash because that could destroy it.

        Sounds implausible.

        Let's see... here's the manual

        https://www.tesla.com/ownersma... [tesla.com]

        OK, what it says is you should use a touchless car wash, and you must put it in car wash mode before going through.

  • Where is my hyperloop? Who doesn't want to be zipped around like spam in a can through a pipe in a vacuum.
  • by Jeremi ( 14640 ) on Monday September 09, 2024 @12:18AM (#64773244) Homepage

    "Being multiplanetary will vastly increase the probable lifespan of consciousness, as we will no longer have all our eggs, literally and metabolically, on one planet."

    The above quote will only become true when not only are people living on Mars, but those people are 100% self-sufficient and can survive indefinitely and reproduce there without any assistance from Earth. Otherwise, the eggs are effectively still in one basket -- if Earth dies, any surviving humans on Mars also die, just a few months/years later.

    I'd estimate the time frame for Martian self-sufficiency to be somewhere between 100 years from now and never. Replicating enough of Earth's biology, ecology, and industry on Mars will be much harder than simply landing some humans and equipment there.

    Which is not to say they shouldn't try, but as usual with Musk, his mouth is writing checks that his technology can't cash.

    • by Tom ( 822 )

      Replicating enough of Earth's biology, ecology, and industry on Mars will be much harder than simply landing some humans and equipment there.

      There's some scientists that claim terraforming Venus is a lot easier than Mars.

      So yeah, we're still a long way away from being a multi-planet species. That said, we've also never in human history be closer.

    • Musk is one hundred percent correct on this, it should be our number one priority as a species. Heâ(TM)s giving us the means to move significant cargo to Mars, everybody on earth should take advantage of that.
      • by RoccamOccam ( 953524 ) on Monday September 09, 2024 @08:22AM (#64773840)

        He's giving us the means to move significant cargo to Mars, everybody on earth should take advantage of that.

        This reminds me of when my wife wanted us to build a shed so that we could move a bunch of junk out of our basement. So we did and our basement was clean for less than a year. Now we have just as much junk in there as we did before. If we give her Mars, she can have it full in maybe 5 years.

      • by Jeremi ( 14640 )

        Musk is one hundred percent correct on this, it should be our number one priority as a species.

        I don't know about that -- I'd say keeping Earth habitable ought to be our number one priority. If the goal is to preserve humanity, preserving humanity's home seems like a better bet than trying to terraform a new one from scratch. Not that we couldn't do both, of course.

    • I'm pretty sure we'll have a Mars colony within one millionth of Earth's age.

  • by fahrbot-bot ( 874524 ) on Monday September 09, 2024 @12:35AM (#64773252)

    Elon Musk: Starships Launch for Mars in 2026. Crewed Flights Possible By 2028

    Unfortunately, Trump Mistakenly Calls Elon Musk by Wrong Name at Rally [thedailybeast.com] Saturday night, so under the rules of MAGA, Elon has to change his name to Leon ... :-)

    “But, ehh Boeing had a little hard time, so they are going to save — Leon is going to send them a rocket,” Trump added, referring to a plan from Musk’s SpaceX to rescue the two Boeing astronauts who are stranded aboard the International Space Station ...

    • Err.. there is no plan by Leon Musk, or even Elon Musk, to send a rescue rocket to the ISS. There's no indication he was even part of the talks.

      The plan is for the scheduled, NASA funded, crew 9 mission to bring them back.

  • Did he really say that, or is it a typo? Not sure what eggs being in a basket has to do with metabolism. Now metaphor, sure.

  • He probably started to write "literally and metaphorically", then tried some late-breaking wordplay

    He fumbled it. In this context, "metabolically" means the same as "literally".

    He probably writes his own tweets, like 'Kofefe' Trump

  • Alwats moving the goalposts, tahts Musk for you.

    We were supposed to be on Mars before now.

    Besides, Musk is just a faker, he'll just not do anything like this, complain that it's all somehow the fault of social media and move the goalposts agian. He is a genius at convincing people to give him money, nothing more.

  • I mean at this point does anyone take anything Elon Musk says his companies will do seriously? He's missed literally every target he's ever set.

    Sure he gets there eventually. I look forward to flying to Mars in 2037.

    • Elon sets lofty projections but eventually delivers some impressive accomplishments. Wish Space X well on their endeavors but probably will take a bit longer and or bit scaled back.
    • > Sure he gets there eventually.

      I predict SpaceX will *never* do better than crash land on Mars, unless they give up on a propulsive landing (and any chance of returning home), or perhaps switch to a small light lander rather than attempting to land the whole Starship.

      Let's face it, Mars doesn't have nice flat concrete landing pads, or towers with catching arms ... Why does SpaceX need those on earth (with our nice thick atmosphere to slow landing rockets down), but think it can land on Mars' uneven surf

  • That would be just as stupid as thinking you could beat all the huge established automakers to ... oh wait.

  • Yes, it will launch right after we have fully autonomous cars. Sometime around 2020.
  • Elon has also said for like... 10 years in a row that Full Self Driving is pretty much done and you could all be making passive income by turning your tesla into a robotaxi while you sleep.
  • I'd pay money to listen to the discussions between Gwynne Shotwell and Elon on the subject. Gwynne has long been a "get to Mars" advocate. OTOH, she's also the CEO who has to tell Elon, "We have billions of dollars worth of contracts with NASA for the Moon that we are obligated to meet."

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