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Medicine Stats

Covid Death Toll in US Likely 16% Higher Than Official Tally, Study Says (theguardian.com) 311

The Guardian reports: The Covid death toll in the U.S. is likely at least 16% higher than the official tally, according to a new study, and researchers believe the cause of the undercounting goes beyond overloaded health systems to a lack of awareness of Covid and low levels of testing.

The second year of the pandemic also had nearly as many uncounted excess deaths as the first, the study found.

More than 1.1 million Americans have died from Covid, according to official records. But the actual number is assuredly higher, given the high rates of excess deaths. Demographers wanted to know how many could be attributed to Covid, and they drilled down to data at the county level to discover patterns in geography and time. There were 1.2 million excess deaths from natural causes — excluding deaths from accidents, firearms, suicide and overdoses — between March 2020 and August 2022, the researchers estimated, and about 163,000 of those deaths were not attributed to Covid in any way — but most of them should have been, the researchers say... "The mortality that's not considered Covid starts a little bit before the Covid surges officially start and crests a little bit sooner," said Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, associate professor in the department of sociology and the Minnesota Population Center at the University of Minnesota and one of the study's authors. That indicates some people didn't realize their illness was Covid, due to a lack of awareness about its prevalence and low levels of testing. There was also a rise in out-of-hospital deaths — in homes and nursing homes, for instance — which makes ascertaining the cause of death more difficult...

"[W]e find over the first 30 months of the pandemic that serious gaps remained in surveillance," said Andrew Stokes, associate professor of global health and sociology at Boston University and one of the study's authors. "Even though we got a lot better at testing for Covid, we were still missing a lot of official Covid deaths" in the U.S., said Jennifer Dowd, professor of demography and population health at University of Oxford, who was not involved in this research. The phenomenon "underscores how badly the U.S. fared as the pandemic continued," Wrigley-Field said. "It does profoundly reflect failures in the public health system."

One of the study's authors told the Guardian that the hardest-hit areas were non-metropolitan counties, especially in the west and the south, with fewer resources for investigating deaths (and lower testing levels) — as well as different methodologies for assembling the official numbers.
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Covid Death Toll in US Likely 16% Higher Than Official Tally, Study Says

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  • Probably (Score:5, Interesting)

    by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Saturday February 24, 2024 @04:46PM (#64265940)

    We know many coroners were asked [truthout.org] to alter [truthout.org] the cause of death [koaa.com] on death certificates so it didn't list covid. In some cases the coroner doesn't count covid deaths [columbiatribune.com].

    While it is impossible to count every single covid death across the country, when the "official" cause is altered or outright not recorded, of course the death toll will be higher.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Opportunist ( 166417 )

      Whether it reads "covid" on the death certificate or not, if the conspiracy nutters don't want to claim that people were deliberately murdered, there isn't really a lot of wiggle room to explain the spike [census.gov] in the death statistics.

      • Re:Probably (Score:5, Interesting)

        by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Saturday February 24, 2024 @06:08PM (#64266096)

        If the death certificate doesn't say covid is the cause of death then that death isn't recorded in the covid statistics. By altering the "official" cause of death to something non-covid, that undercounts the number of covid deaths. Which is somewhat what this study is suggesting. Total deaths were undercounted which means the true count is higher. That also tallies with your spike.

        But then, what I'm saying is why I got downmodded. The nutters don't want to hear this, no matter how many of them died [businessinsider.com] from [nypost.com] covid [cnn.com] after saying it was just the flu [newsweek.com], or a hoax [imgur.com], they weren't [thedailybeast.com] getting [theguardian.com] vaccinated [businessinsider.com], and would use horse paste [twitter.com] to protect themselves [independent.co.uk].

        • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

          by aaarrrgggh ( 9205 )

          While I don't disagree with the premise, a percentage of deaths was also linked to the lack of preventative care for manageable but critical illnesses associated with the shutdowns and hospital challenges. I am sure someone could look up historical trends with the number of people diagnosed with hypertension, diabetes, and cancers (among other things) to better correlate that if they wanted to...

          • IOW those people died not of Covid but still because of Covid. And because of the people that blocked hospitals by being the nutters the GP talked about.
            • And here's the thing... If someone who's immune compromised dies because they got covid, claming they died "with covid not because of covid" is as stupid as claiming a gunshot victim died of blood loss, not being shot.

              "No shit, but it's pretty obvious why this person died of blood loss NOW and not at some random other time."
    • Re:Probably (Score:5, Informative)

      by Hadlock ( 143607 ) on Saturday February 24, 2024 @05:44PM (#64266062) Homepage Journal

      I don't know why this got downvoted. In my very-extended "friends group" several husbands died of "suffocation". My grandmother died of covid (otherwise healthy before she caught it) but the official cause was listed as heart failure or whatever.
       
      The best way to look at the data is to look at "excess deaths" data, it was significantly above the norm in 2020-21-22 and a big portion of the delta between excess deaths and covid deaths those years, a large part of that is likely covid.

    • by Anonymous Coward

      Of course the death rates were higher, Republicunts desperately trying to cover to Trumps gross incompetence is why the stats dont show it.

  • Excess deaths (Score:4, Informative)

    by sinij ( 911942 ) on Saturday February 24, 2024 @04:46PM (#64265946)
    The study concludes that excess deaths that are observed world wide may be caused by COVID infection. They discuss non-COVID death causes, but not discuss what exactly these are. I don't see anything in this paper supporting their conclusion. It does, however, firmly establishes that from "March 2020 to August 2022, 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths occurred in the United States"
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Nrrqshrr ( 1879148 )

      Not to discredit the lockdowns and how much they helped (Am a pharmaceutics bioengi, so I know the science behind it well enough), but I do wonder how many of these deaths happened, not because of covid, but because of everything else surrounding covid.
      I know people who fucking burned their skin with excessive usage of bleach, people whose businesses got ruined due to covid, people who drank the fearporn koolaid by the gallon... And, to this day, online discussions have never recovered, with people flinging

      • Re: Excess deaths (Score:5, Interesting)

        by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Saturday February 24, 2024 @05:15PM (#64266002)

        Which of the things you list there are lethal?

        What I give you is that the increased deaths also include those that died because their operations couldn't happen in time because hospitals were overburdened with patients...

        • Which is why everyone except those who needed a hospital should have stayed the fuck home instead of immediately buying ufc tickets.
        • The reason that we did the lockdowns was because the hospitals were in danger of a collapse that would have killed millions. I remember congresswoman Katie Porter did one of her famous white boards using data from her sister who's an epidemiologist showing that if we did the let 'er rip approach favored by the at the time president administration that we have around 20 million deaths due to the collapse of our healthcare system.

          That would have killed enough baby boomers to affect the election anyway so t
      • I know people who fucking burned their skin with excessive usage of bleach, people whose businesses got ruined due to covid, people who drank the fearporn koolaid by the gallon

        It seems to me that other already-tracked metrics would catch these sorts of deaths, and if they were statistically significant it should be apparent - e.g. deaths from suicide, deaths related to alcoholism, etc. I don't know if there's an "death caused by abject stupidity" metric though, so maybe not everything would get caught...

      • You've Got the background that you can find them easily yourself, but we've known since 1910 that lockdowns kill fewer people than pandemics do. That's a well-established fact in epidemiology. We also know that economies bounce back better if they go in the lockdown during a pandemic and that if the government just focuses on helping regular people through the lockdown then there are little or no deaths as a result.

        The reason Lock downs were controversial is because we had a election going on and it was
      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        Not to discredit the lockdowns and how much they helped (Am a pharmaceutics bioengi, so I know the science behind it well enough)

        Regarding that: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/... [jhu.edu]

        Johns Hopkins is a world-renowned research institution, and is the organization entrusted by the government to keep track of the COVID death toll. They were also considered by the media to be the ultimate authority on all matters COVID, that is until they released the report linked above, after which point every Tom, Dick, and Harry has been busy trying to discredit the entire institution.

      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        Sure. But these are COVID deaths. As in "would not have happened without COVID" and hence part of the package when evaluating measure or their absence.

        I wish people in the west were just more adult and not reduced to screaming tears by minor things like masks or vaccinations. Some asian countries with bad medical systems got very well through COVID, simply because people were sensible and willing to follow recommendations.

      • Re: Excess deaths (Score:4, Interesting)

        by quenda ( 644621 ) on Sunday February 25, 2024 @08:43AM (#64267094)

        but I do wonder how many of these deaths happened, not because of covid, but because of everything else surrounding covid.

        It could be a negative number. In Australia in 2020, with covid-zero, we had 4% fewer deaths than normal. Due to preventative measures against Covid, there was a big drop in respiratory disease deaths, including influenza. 2020 was also a record low year for road deaths.

          https://www.sydney.edu.au/news... [sydney.edu.au]

    • Covid causes permanent internal damage. A clot caused by covid can hit your brain and kill you months later.
  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Saturday February 24, 2024 @04:48PM (#64265954)
    We've got about 8,000 people a day hitting the hospitals and if you're being admitted to a hospital in America you're either extremely rich or you're at a high risk for death.

    We've got antiviral drugs that keep people alive but they're not getting out of that unscathed. They have permanent lung and heart damage.

    That bad day in your mid-50s is now a stroke. That stroke when you're 60 is now a heart attack. And that heart attack when you're 65 puts you in the grave.

    All of that before we take into account the millions of people who have what we're calling long covid.

    We are just now starting to look at the long-term effects of letting the pandemic get is out of hand as we did. We need to stop putting incompetent fools in charge of everything and ignoring the advice of experts. I'll remind everyone that we were repeatedly warned by epidemiologists that this was coming
    • Stupid people demand stupid government.
    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      It would be well worth throwing many, many billions at curing long COVID. I must declare an interest, but now that so many people have it, the economic justification for a moon shot is there.

      • Our country, hell our species isn't capable of moon shots anymore. Too much 1% worshiping. We've given all the money needed for moonshots to Elon Musk & co.
        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          Have there been any since the 60s? The actual moon shot, supersonic passenger aircraft... Anything later than those?

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      I fear those "incompetent fools" are a major part of the voter population.

  • Lots of conjecture (Score:2, Insightful)

    by magzteel ( 5013587 )

    "excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes may represent unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, deaths caused by pandemic health care interruptions, and/or deaths from the pandemic’s socioeconomic impacts"

    The deaths may be from Covid, or may be from stuff loosely related to Covid happening or reaction to it, or may have nothing at all to do with it.
    Your guess is as good as ours

    • by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Saturday February 24, 2024 @05:20PM (#64266014)

      Was there something else going on in 2020 that lets annual deaths jump from about 2.8 millions in 2019 to 3.4 in 2020?

      • Fentanyl. The year 2020 coincides with a massive spike in the opioid overdose epidemic. It n many Canadians jurisdictions, more people died of fentanyl overdoses in 2020 than Covid. Two ways to look at it: without lockdowns perhaps that many people died of covid, but the other side (rightly) blames the lockdown for many of those deaths, simply because it forced people into doing their opioids in isolation without oversight.

        Whether it accounted for all the excess deaths or not, just saying “must be
        • Here’s a link to just one province’s statistics, but rest assured the trend was the same in the others (and presumably the US states as well). Note the massive increase from 2019 to 2020. https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.70935... [www.cbc.ca]
        • it forced people into doing their opioids in isolation without oversight

          Because otherwise, junkies generally push in the middle of town square and people really care a lot if some druggy is lying motionlessly in a ditch?

    • What we heard during the pandemic was that Covid deaths were being overreported, probably because hospitals were getting government reimbursement for Covid cases. Every death that occurred was attributed to Covid if the victim sneezed before dying, no matter what additional factors were in play. Now people are saying that the Covid death count is too low. How do we decide what to believe?

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      THis is not a "guess". It is called "Science". Maybe you should look it up.

  • by JoshuaZ ( 1134087 ) on Saturday February 24, 2024 @05:26PM (#64266038) Homepage
    From summary:

    One of the study's authors told the Guardian that the hardest-hit areas were non-metropolitan counties, especially in the west and the south, with fewer resources for investigating deaths (and lower testing levels) — as well as different methodologies for assembling the official numbers.

    There were also people who just refused to acknowledge loved ones had died of covid, and actively tried to block death certificates from listing covid. This is discussed in for example this article . In many cases, the official records simply used whatever family members said was the cause. Some were even more extreme. From that article:

    In Cape Girardeau County, Missouri, coroner Wavis Jordan said his office “doesn’t do COVID deaths.” Jordan does not investigate deaths himself. He requires families to provide proof of a positive coronavirus test before including it on a death certificate. In 2021, he hasn’t pronounced a single person dead from COVID-19 in the 80,000-person county.

    While part of this is due to lack of resources, and both TFA and the above linked piece discuss some of that, part of this is political in nature, with one end of the US right-wing deciding that covid wasn't a major issue and thus downplaying covid deaths. Unfortunately, downplaying a disease for political reasons doesn't make it less deadly.

    • Sorry: the other article URL didn't end up in the comment for some reason. Should have looked at the preview more carefully. The other article I was quoting from is here https://www.usatoday.com/in-de... [usatoday.com] .
    • When the dust settles, and it did by now, what's left is the fact that there are more people dying every year since 2020 than until 2020. There simply isn't any other way to explain this anymore. Not even any war the US fought in the past 100 years caused such a noticeable jump in death numbers.

  • Covid ... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Savage-Rabbit ( 308260 ) on Saturday February 24, 2024 @06:03PM (#64266088)

    The entire US national debate about Covid, whether vaccines are supposedly useless and dangerous, whether basic common sense measures to spread infectious disease are an assault on the constitutional rights of US citizens, etc, etc, ad nauseam, ... that has dominated US public discourse and news cycles for years can now be summed up like this:

      - Florida has a population of 21,78 million people they are now counting 94,037 Covid deaths.

      - Japan has a population of 125,7 million people they are now counting 74,694 Covid deaths.

    If Florida's government had displayed the same level of basic common sense and competence when dealing with the Covid pandemic as Japan's government did then Florida's Covid death toll would be just under 13,000 and this is just one US state we're talking about here that has a higher death toll than a country six times it's size. These numbers say all that needs to be said.

    • by Yukidaore ( 9499569 ) on Saturday February 24, 2024 @06:13PM (#64266104)
      At first glance those numbers look convincing, but if you stop to think about how much higher the population density is in Japan you realize that the COVID was probably just getting stuck in all the people traffic and couldn't get around, whereas in America we have giant SUVs and spacious roads to cart it everywhere it wants to go at high speed!
    • Or simply look at Canada, which was second behind japan in the G7.
    • And of course the people of Japan are identical to the people of Florida in every way, with absolutely no difference in rates of obesity or other factors that make covid more serious, so it is perfectly normal and valid to just compare them per capita like this.

    • Whether individuals heed the proper advice aside, the debate of government mandates vs safety is still a valid one. The US could reliably save ten people’s lives per year if they banned skydiving. I could very convincingly argue skydiving provides no utility or benefit to society; hence, why do we allow people the freedom to do it. Yes, the numbers are greater with COVID, but where specifically do you draw the line? Is it the risk to other people? Then why don’t we have more limits on personal d
      • We generally limit skydiving to areas where a failed dive isn't going to result in you falling on someone. We usually don't allow people to drive off-road except on private property where permission has been given.

        With COVID, you can go anywhere and infect anyone, and they can't avoid you as you pass them in the grocery store or wherever else people have to go frequently. I'd say that's how the line is drawn - how potentially dangerous you are and how reasonable it is to expect others to avoid you.

        I think

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