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Medicine

Covid Lockdowns 'Were Worth It', Argues Infectious Disease Expert on CNN (cnn.com) 274

A new book argues lockdowns during the pandemic were "a failure." But in response CNN published an opinion piece disagreeing — written by physician/infectious disease expert Kent Sepkowitz from the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York — who argues "You bet it was worth it." [Authors Joe Nocera and Bethany McLean] consider the lockdown a single activity stretched across the entire pandemic; in contrast, I would distinguish the initial lockdown, which was crucial, from the off-and-on lockdowns as therapies, vaccines and overall care improved. There is an argument to be made that these were not anywhere near as effective... One only had to work in health care in New York City to see the difference between early 2020, when the explosion of cases overwhelmed the city, versus later in 2020 when an effective therapy had been identified, supplies and diagnostic testing had been greatly improved (though still completely inadequate) and the makeshift ICUs and emergency rooms had been set in place. It was still a nightmare to be sure, but it was a vastly more organized nightmare.

The "short-term benefits" at the start of the pandemic are simple to characterize: Every infection that was delayed due to the lockdowns was a day to the good, a day closer to the release of the mRNA vaccines in December 2020, a less-hectic day for the health care workers, a day for clinical trials to mature. Therefore, the authors' statement that lockdowns "were a mistake that should not be repeated" because they had no "purpose other than keeping hospitals from being overrun in the short-term" is to me a fundamental misunderstanding of the day-to-day work that was being done. Most disturbing to me about this assessment and the others that have come along are the minimal mention of the death and debility the infection caused. A reminder for those who have forgotten just how brutal the pandemic was: Worldwide there have been 7 million deaths. In the U.S., there have been more than a million deaths, millions have some post-infection debility and many health care workers remain profoundly demoralized. [By these figures the U.S., with 4.2% of the world's population, had 14% of Covid fatalities.]

In this context, many of the outcomes of concern listed by Nocera and McLean — suicidal thoughts in teens, alcoholism and drug use increases, violence — are as easily explained by this staggering death toll as by the cabin fever brought on by lockdowns. Once again: About 1 out of every 350 Americans died in the Covid-19 pandemic. Another way to consider the impact of so many deaths is examination of life expectancy. Of note, life expectancy in the U.S. fell in 2020 (1.8 years) and 2021 (0.6 years), the sharpest drop since the 1920s; per the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 74% of the drop was attributed to Covid-19... To fall more than two years so precipitously requires the deaths of many in their 30s and 40s and 50s, as occurred with the first year of the pandemic.

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Covid Lockdowns 'Were Worth It', Argues Infectious Disease Expert on CNN

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  • by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @02:48PM (#63997843)

    This should be good. *munch* *munch*

    • by Valgrus Thunderaxe ( 8769977 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @02:59PM (#63997879)
      Vaccines (and certain types/appropriate masking) are supported by scientific rigor, distancing and mass-lockdowns aren't so clear. If the former have an ultimate social value (which I agree with), do the lock downs that have decimated entire urban economies and left trails of unemployed in the wake of these policies have this same redeeming social value? I'm not certain about that. You don't see the same destruction in places such as Miami that you now see in Southern CA cities.
      • by ls671 ( 1122017 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @03:07PM (#63997907) Homepage

        Distancing and mass-lockdowns sure can't have any negative impacts transmission wise. The whole thing depends on how much other negative impacts it has compared to the benefits.

        • by gweihir ( 88907 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @04:10PM (#63998083)

          Indeed. And when you do not reliably know, you err on the side of caution. That said, as you state, it is clear that distancing and lock-downs have proven benefits (at the very least from earlier epidemics and pandemics) in a pandemic situation, it is just not precisely clear how much.

          To err on the side of caution means to realize that _can_ (if there is the will to do it) recover "urban economies", but dead people are dead and nothing can be done about it.

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @07:27PM (#63998509) Homepage Journal

            The problem is that most people only see their personal experience of the lockdowns.

            If they got mild COVID with no lingering effects (or are just in denial about them), they probably think lockdowns weren't worth it. If they lost three family members and are disabled by long COVID, they probably think the lockdowns weren't enough.

            Even the economists can't predict the long term effects of long COVID, or how many people will have it in say 10 years time.

            • by gweihir ( 88907 )

              Indeed. What most people also do not understand that fighting an ongoing catastrophe based on insufficient data will always be quite a bit off and that there are trigger-points that must be avoided at all cost because they will make things much, much worse. In the case of a pandemic this, for example, the medical system collapsing and people deciding to start running. That must not happen under any circumstances. The thing is, you cannot manage a pandemic well. You can manage it somewhat acceptable or you c

      • by Calydor ( 739835 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @03:13PM (#63997917)

        Distancing - and by extension lockdowns to enforce said distancing - is absolutely supported by scientific rigor.

        Viruses are not magic. They require contact. They are physical objects moving from one physical host to another through physical space. They do not spontaneously materialize in the lungs of random people who had no contact with someone already infected.

        Distancing when done correctly severely limits the potential of the virus to spread. When the spread is limited time is bought to find a better and more permanent solution - such as the vaccine. To think otherwise is like not bothering to keep a gushing wound closed and under pressure until the ambulance arrives because meh, the ambulance is the actual fix so why do anything before then?

        • Yes, to a point, at the beginning of the pandemic. But at what point do these policies leave you with more long-term destruction than you were initially trying to prevent? Two years in? Three years in? NYC was contemplating another lock down just three months ago.
          • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

            by gweihir ( 88907 )

            There is no "long term damage" that is less fixable than people being dead. Do you not respect human life?

          • by ranton ( 36917 )

            Yes, to a point, at the beginning of the pandemic. But at what point do these policies leave you with more long-term destruction than you were initially trying to prevent? Two years in? Three years in? NYC was contemplating another lock down just three months ago.

            In the US the value of a human life is set at around $8-10 million. I saw one study [usc.edu] claiming about $14 trillion in damages to the US economy from Covid by the end of 2023. That would be worth it if about 1.5 million lives were saved by our actions.

            Also, we know there would have been economic damage even if there was no shutdown. The loss of life itself would have reduced economic output, along with individual decisions to eat out and congregate less. I personally would say if even 500k lives were lost then

        • Remember that distancing and lock down managed to basically wipe out one of four major kinds of flu virus.
          • Or....
          • And we gained Covid in exchange, so a break-even?
          • If we could convince everyone to isolate alone for a certain amount of time, many types of diseases would be completely eradicated.
            • The main benefit of Covid19 and the lockdowns was that Management finally had to remove the bobble-heads that kept smacking them with limbs from the Stupid tree, and embrace remote work. 2020 to-date have been the greatest years in my entire working career.

              When I started to see those fucking idiotic Return to Office mandates, my wife and I started praying for another pandemic -- and I'm an athiest! Fortunately for me, my workplace seems to be expanding remote work support, as we are more productive working

        • by VeryFluffyBunny ( 5037285 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @03:51PM (#63998023)
          Obligatory XKCD (Pathogen Resistance): https://xkcd.com/2287/ [xkcd.com] Isolation, masking, & distancing really do work. BTW, viruses don't care about your feelings about your freedom.
        • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

          by e3m4n ( 947977 )
          It destroyed the global economy and supply chain so badly that nearly 4 years later we still have not recovered. Keeping ER free?? They turned away anyone non covid. Chemo patients did not get treatment. How did that help? You can do social distancing without forcing everyone to stay at home. Omicron was 1000x more infectious and there was NO LOCKDOWN during Omicron. We didnt experience 1000x more death. And Omicron was almost entirely aerosolized not mucous droplets. Your information is way out dated. The
      • Social distancing and lockdowns have a *long* history of suppressing epidemics. Literally going back centuries.

        And the death rates in states with social distancing and lockdowns is about 2200/mil (except the 3 entry states where covid ran wild for months) while the death rates in states without social distancing is about 4600/mil (except Alaska).

        You may say, "I *choose* to have freedom and higher death rates" but you are ignoring the data when you say social distancing didn't slow it down. If nothing els

    • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

      Pass the popcorn, please.

  • by aaarrrgggh ( 9205 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @02:52PM (#63997853)

    The March-May 2020 lockdowns were absolutely necessary. Maybe measures into June as well. After that it seems like everything had diminishing returns. Here we had a second lockdown in July-September which was excessive. It is interesting to look at the efficacy of measures later on in the Pandemic though based on virility and mortality of the strains at the time, and hard facts really need to be published on this to help keep us better informed.

    • by HBI ( 10338492 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @02:56PM (#63997867)

      If it hadn't been an election year more sane policymaking might have prevailed.

      The bottom line is that public health measures next time will be ignored en masse. You'll need the guns out and the roadblocks and such. Let's hope no more pandemics in the next 40 or so years, which should be about the timeframe for enough people to not remember this.

      • by RightwingNutjob ( 1302813 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @03:15PM (#63997925)

        If it hadn't been an election year, the same exact thing would have happened. This claim is testable because in Massachusetts where I lived, and in Rhode Island and New Jersey and Virginia and New York it was not an election year for the governors who pushed the lockdowns first and hardest.

        For a time it looked like they were racing to see who would lock down hardest.

        Cuomo announced an X week lockdown, so Northam announced an X+1 week lockdown!

        Gina Raimondo sent the National Guard around Rhode Island looking for New York license plates, so Charlie Baker* announced that anyone entering Massachusetts needed to register with the State Police or Public Health Department or some damn thing.

        The next gubernatorial election cycle, only Virginia issued a rebuke to the Democratic Party. And even then, it could be argued that was a fluke having to do with McAuliffe's poor handling of the debates and a very public shitstorm in Loudon County over immigration and transgender bathrooms than with anything having to do with covid policies.

      • I think it's more about how partisan conspiracy theories have become though, yes, an election year (which is most years) exacerbates the issue. Partisanship gives legitimacy to conspiracy theorists, since by grouping them together they become an important voting bloc. And thus they get pandered too, and their egos stroked.

        In another time there might have been debate over the best way to deal with the pandemic, but we wouldn't have had mainstream catering to fringe notions like denying that it even existe
    • The March-May 2020 lockdowns were absolutely necessary.

      I agree they were necessary. But what you do during those lockdowns is just as important. Building up testing infrastructure and contact tracing needs to be done during that time. Here in the US there was a lot of talk about doing these things, but very little was actually done. I don't know anyone that was actually contacted by a contact tracer. There were a lot of people with time on their hands that should have been put to work contact tracing.

      Lockdowns can only be done for a finite amount of time

  • Missing context (Score:5, Informative)

    by hirschma ( 187820 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @02:55PM (#63997859)
    So, essentially, short-term lockdowns were required to not overload the medical system. Since this argument is made with anecdotes from New York, I'll counter in the same context.

    This argument overlooks the fact that Mr. Covid, Cuomo, had presided over a years-long campaign to reduce the number of hospital beds in NYS [nypost.com], and him and his predecessors, to shut down community hospitals [nysna.org].

    Perhaps if there had been more hospital beds, and more facilities, Cuomo might not have ordered infected patients into nursing homes [apnews.com], where the most vulnerable resided. Or he might have anyway - those nursing home operators were major contributors.

    Nope, the lockdowns were a band-aid solution to the symptoms of the pursuit of profits.
    • Nope, the lockdowns were a band-aid solution to the symptoms of the pursuit of profits.

      It matters why the lockdowns were necessary, but for the sake of this particular argument that's only the why and not the whether.

    • I'll further add that this was known since studies on healthcare consolidation were popping up in the early 2000s (although the focus then was the quadrupling of time it took to receive emergency care for large swaths of the country). It's not only the loss of critical care beds, but where those beds are concentrated; further exacerbated by a one-size-fits-all of the lockdowns.

      Quarantine is a basic protocol of medicine, but it was interesting to compare to the early days of the AIDS epidemic when not much w

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Or he might have anyway - those nursing home operators were major contributors.

      So the nursing home operators wanted their customers decimated? That does not make sense.

    • Nope, the lockdowns were a band-aid solution to the symptoms of the pursuit of profits.

      When you injure yourself a band-aid is quite useful as it limits the amount of blood you spill everywhere. Just because covid lockdowns were a band-aid solution and you had other underlying problems doesn't mean they weren't quite valuable. Most of the world did not have Mr Covid Cuomo. Anytime you point to one specific local issue to counter a global problem consider that maybe your view is a bit too narrow.

  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @03:11PM (#63997915)
    It's just scientific fact. There are these things called epidemiologists and they study these things conjunction with these other things called economist. And it's not theoretical we've had pandemics we just haven't had one while multiple idiots were in charge so they didn't go completely global.

    Countries that do lockdowns recover faster and better and are better off regardless of the pandemic in question. The only reason this was at all conquerorsal in America is that there was a presidential election going on in the at the time Republican candidate new and unless he could force the economy to stay open until after the election he was going to lose because his mismanagement of the crises would become too obvious.

    The goal was to keep everything running just long enough for that candidate to safely win reelection. Absolutely nothing happened to you, me or your families mattered after that. Because it's like that line in 1984 about how the entire point of it all is power. We're just numbers on a spreadsheet
    • The only reason this was at all conquerorsal in America is that there was a presidential election

      Lockdowns were controversial in almost every country where they were tried around the world.

      • Because right wing politicians in power were using them as an excuse to keep things going and stay in power. In places that don't have right wing extremists as a viable political party the lockdowns were not controversial and they were also much shorter because they didn't turn a public health crisis into a political tool and a moral panic.

        Right wing economic policies do not work. They always just boiled down to trickle down economics and prosperity Gospel. So right wing governments need some other thing
        • In places that don't have right wing extremists as a viable political party the lockdowns were not controversial

          You mean, like Sweden?

  • Lockdowns too late (Score:5, Interesting)

    by gnasher719 ( 869701 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @03:15PM (#63997929)
    In the UK there are numbers showing clearly fast growth of infections before lockdown, then slow decrease during lockdown (with about three weeks delay). We let the numbers go high enough that a lockdown was politically acceptable.

    The same lockdown starting and ending three weeks earlier would have saved 10,000s of lives. But it would have been politically impossible because instead of 40,000 dying in the first phase it would have been only 10,000 and Covid would have looked a lot more harmless

    Without lockdown the numbers would have grown and grown until people would have stayed at home because they were too afraid to leave. So voluntary lockdown caused by fear.

    Hospitals were close to overwhelmed. And they never could treat Covid - they only could try to keep you alive until your immune system can fight back. That didnâ(TM)t work for about 190,000 in the UK. With much higher numbers of cases and hospitals not able to try to keep everyone alive, a much higher percentage would have died.
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      And that is the problem with voters: They do not understand anything even only slightly complicated.

  • Wow (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Baron_Yam ( 643147 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @03:20PM (#63997947)

    > the authors' statement that lockdowns "were a mistake that should not be repeated" because they had no "purpose other than keeping hospitals from being overrun in the short-term"

    That purpose alone would be justification. A full hospital isn't just unavailable for people with COVID, it becomes unavailable for everything else, too.

    I like knowing if I'm seriously injured or sick that my local ER has some capacity to handle me, and the hospital attached to it can take me when I leave the ER.

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      Statements like these tell you a lot about the authors. Seatbelts are clearly a mistake because they do nothing other than prevent you from flying around during a crash.

      Social media was it's usual dumpster fire and official statements in the US seemed a little mixed, but most places it was clear to anyone not spending too much time on the internet that the purpose of staying home as much as possible ("lockdown", lol) was to limit the peaks, not to prevent infection forever.

  • Boosters of the Iraq War stuck to their position years later saying the same quote.
  • Most disturbing to me about this assessment and the others that have come along are the minimal mention of the death and debility the infection caused. A reminder for those who have forgotten just how brutal the pandemic was: Worldwide there have been 7 million deaths. In the U.S., there have been more than a million deaths, millions have some post-infection debility and many health care workers remain profoundly demoralized. [By these figures the U.S., with 4.2% of the world's population, had 14% of Covid

  • by gweihir ( 88907 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @04:05PM (#63998065)

    Anybody that looks at actual data and sees what is in there and what the scenarios would have been that were sometimes nearly avoided, comes to the same conclusions. The "COVID does not exist" and "the vaccine was worthless" crowd simply lacks the intellectual honesty to understand things like this. Put them in charge and see things going downhill, because they apply the same level of skill and insight to other questions as well.

    My apologies top these people, but they have managed to be so far off now that they do not qualify for rational dialog anymore. They just do not live in the real world.

  • by Harry_Bawls ( 3541417 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @04:08PM (#63998075) Homepage
    As someone who's fairly introverted I think we need more lock downs, maybe for another 2-3 decades.
  • by Qwertie ( 797303 ) on Saturday November 11, 2023 @10:39PM (#63998925) Homepage

    On one hand, you have statistics saying a million people died of Covid in the U.S. alone. On the other hand, some people have feelings. I'd like to share the story of my uncle Bert, who died "with" Covid in Alberta, my aunt Elaine, and my father Don who lives 5000 km away in Hawaii. All three of them became anti-vaxxers after the pandemic started because their right-wing sources told them about the evils of vaccines in general and (once mRNA vaccines got the EUA) mRNA vaccines in particular.

    A key part of this belief system is that Covid isn't so bad (as long as you have ivermectin anyway). My aunt wrote this on Facebook:

    Bert is in a ventilator in ICU in Lethbridge. He is in a deep sleep, seemingly unaware of his surroundings or anyone's touch. A team of 4 turns him every afternoon from his back to his tummy which seems to increase his oxygen level, and then in the morning they move him back onto his back. - Elaine

    Last night, Bert's brother Don phoned me to say Bert is being treated for the wrong condition. He feels that Bert has suffered a stroke. He was in the front yard, watering the flowers when he fell, and was unable to get up. This is similar to other incidents that have occurred recently, and Bert has called me on his cell, so I rushed out to help him stand up. I don't know why we didnt do more than help him into the house so he could sit in his "lazy boy" for a while. This time a young couple driving by saw him fall and rescued him before I could get to him - hence his trip to the hospital and a diagnosis of covid 19.

    So: Bert has fallen repeatedly in the garden. This time when he fell, passers-by called an ambulance. When he got to the hospital, he was tested for Covid and it came back positive. Perhaps due to this, Elaine wasn't allowed to see him (she was also infected, but had a very mild case). Later, he was placed on a ventilator (a common treatment for severe Covid). Don, from 5000 km away, diagnoses him with a stroke. The hospital told Elaine he died of Covid, but Don still thinks he died of a stroke. Elaine is inclined to believe Don, though she told me later, her voice breaking, that maybe if they had allowed her to give him ivermectin, he'd still be alive today.

    And you know what, I do wish staff had given him ivermectin. He would've still died, but at least Elaine wouldn't be left with an impression that doctors are the enemy. As for my father--the man I remember is gone, replaced a mystery man who sent me messages reciting the talking points given to him by the TV, never with evidence to back it up. He ignored all of my replies. Now we don't talk anymore.

The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not "Eureka!" (I found it!) but "That's funny ..." -- Isaac Asimov

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