'If Aliens Contact Humanity, Who Decides What We Do Next?' (theguardian.com) 172
If humankind detects a message from an advanced civilisation, "It would be a transformative event for humankind," writes the Guardian, "one the world's nations are surely prepared for.
"Or are they?" "Look at the mess we made when Covid hit. We'd be like headless chickens," says Dr John Elliott, a computational linguist at the University of St Andrews. "We cannot afford to be ill-prepared, scientifically, socially, and politically rudderless, for an event that could happen at any time and which we cannot afford to mismanage."
This frank assessment of Earth's unreadiness for contact with life elsewhere underpins the creation of the Seti (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) post-detection hub at St Andrews. Over the next month or two, Elliott aims to bring together a core team of international researchers and affiliates. They will take on the job of getting ready: to analyse mysterious signals, or even artefacts, and work out every aspect of how we should respond.... "After the initial announcement, we'd be looking at societal impact, information dissemination, the media, the impact on religions and belief systems, the potential for disinformation, what analytical capabilities we'll need, and much more: having strategies in place, being transparent with everything we've discovered — what we know and what we do not know," says Elliott....
Lewis Dartnell, an astrobiologist and professor of science communication at the University of Westminster, said the new hub at St Andrews is "an important step in raising awareness at how ill-prepared we currently are" for detecting a signal from an alien civilisation. But he added that any intelligent aliens were likely to be hundreds if not thousands of light years away, meaning communication time would be on the scale of many centuries. "Even if we were to receive a signal tomorrow, we would have plenty of breathing space to assemble an international team of diverse experts to attempt to decipher the meaning of the message, and carefully consider how the Earth should respond, and even if we should.
"The bigger concern is to establish some form of international agreement to prevent capable individuals or private corporations from responding independently — before a consensus has formed on whether it is safe to respond at all, and what we would want to say as one planet," he said.
"Or are they?" "Look at the mess we made when Covid hit. We'd be like headless chickens," says Dr John Elliott, a computational linguist at the University of St Andrews. "We cannot afford to be ill-prepared, scientifically, socially, and politically rudderless, for an event that could happen at any time and which we cannot afford to mismanage."
This frank assessment of Earth's unreadiness for contact with life elsewhere underpins the creation of the Seti (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) post-detection hub at St Andrews. Over the next month or two, Elliott aims to bring together a core team of international researchers and affiliates. They will take on the job of getting ready: to analyse mysterious signals, or even artefacts, and work out every aspect of how we should respond.... "After the initial announcement, we'd be looking at societal impact, information dissemination, the media, the impact on religions and belief systems, the potential for disinformation, what analytical capabilities we'll need, and much more: having strategies in place, being transparent with everything we've discovered — what we know and what we do not know," says Elliott....
Lewis Dartnell, an astrobiologist and professor of science communication at the University of Westminster, said the new hub at St Andrews is "an important step in raising awareness at how ill-prepared we currently are" for detecting a signal from an alien civilisation. But he added that any intelligent aliens were likely to be hundreds if not thousands of light years away, meaning communication time would be on the scale of many centuries. "Even if we were to receive a signal tomorrow, we would have plenty of breathing space to assemble an international team of diverse experts to attempt to decipher the meaning of the message, and carefully consider how the Earth should respond, and even if we should.
"The bigger concern is to establish some form of international agreement to prevent capable individuals or private corporations from responding independently — before a consensus has formed on whether it is safe to respond at all, and what we would want to say as one planet," he said.
Tiktok users (Score:5, Funny)
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Just crowd source the solution.
(Alien) "Zeeble! Come quick! We're receiving a response from someone called...Fucky McFuckface..."
Re: Tiktok users (Score:2)
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Re: Tiktok users (Score:2)
Transmission strength (Score:4, Informative)
Okay, I remember reading that our most powerful transmissions not explicitly directed to space would, if viewed by our most powerful radio telescope of the time (the now destroyed arecibo radio telescope), would peter out around the Oort clouds.
The most powerful signals that would be obviously artificial go back to the old early warning radar systems.
From an interstellar standpoint, we're actually getting quieter. This is because we're getting more efficient with our use of the radio spectrum - which means stuffing more bits into the signal just above the "noise floor", below which you can't tell the data from the noise.
TikTok data would be internet data, which is, relatively speaking, lower than whispering on the intergalactic scale.
Radio stations, maxing out at 50kW(and used to be 500kW [ohiohistorycentral.org]), are thundering in comparison. And as a bonus, as you point out, their being unencrypted is a bonus.
Realistically speaking, in order to get good interstellar ranges, you need to use directional antennas.
A 1GW directional antenna is certainly something we could build today, and seems to be reasonable for aliens to use in their SETI project. It's certainly more power and resources than we've ever invested, but not by orders of magnitude. With it, they could "talk" to pretty much anybody in the galaxy, assuming a equally large and efficient receiver at the distant end.
The problem that comes up with this is that it is directional - so you have to decide what narrow cones you shoot your signal down, if you're looking to communicate with somebody new. You don't even know if there's somebody out there to receive. Oh, and we need to be listening in the right direction at the right time to hear it, at the right (range of) frequencies. Complicated.
So you could have the aliens "trying out" like 1k out of 1M targets a year, which means that it could be up to 1k years before Earth is sampled again.
I'm picturing something like they have 1k 1GW transmitters that they rotate through their 1M potentials, transmitting at each for around a year straight. Let's assume they're orbital. To find the signal, we need to be listening on the correct frequency in the correct direction, during that period. So they transmit for a year, while we check millions of potential directions during that time.
Mind you, we're not "properly" listening for this effort even today, we're still equivalent to the dude who just bought a fancy entertainment system and is still in the process of unboxing and setting it up. We might hear something if we're really lucky, but it's going to be hit or miss. We've only been listening at all for less than 100 years at this point, so even if the signal was blaringly obvious, we might have another 900 years before they get to us, as a promising candidate.
All in all, unless the aliens:
1. Actually physically show up in our Solar System
2. Transmit the plans for a FTL transmitter as the first thing
Odds are they're over 100LY away, and it'll be our heir's heir's who have to worry about it, not us.
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In contrast, military radar transmissions set up during the Cold War to detect incoming ballistic missiles have the power and frequency characteristics to be detected over hundreds of light-years – and have already broadcast our existence to any aliens within around 60 light-years of the Earth. [sciencefocus.com]
So, military radar has a 60 light year penetration into the cosmos.
I will leave it as an exercise for the gentle reader to identify potentially life supporting systems that reside in that space
Tangential alien humane society humor... (Score:4, Interesting)
Thanks for the informative post. Some tangential (and surprisingly on-topic) humor in reply to your option #1, from:
"Cast of Wonders 274: Won't You Please Give One of These Species-Planets a Second Chance?" By Nathan Hillstrom
https://www.castofwonders.org/... [castofwonders.org]
==== An excerpt relevant to the topic:
The Secretary-General sat on his sofa, at home for the first time in days. He had spent the week dealing with large sections of the world being literally on fire and, on top of that, his doctor had called him a problem eater. Food was a distraction from what he couldn't control.
He speared a crouton at the bottom of his Caesar salad and wished the aliens had actually taken over world government.
Joy materialized on the other side of his coffee table, the first time she had broken schedule or location. "Mr. Secretary-General, all our cages are full. We need this one back within the week."
Ataahua stood, waving his fork. "Remove it whenever you want!"
"Tan Tan, please understand." Joy's sad smile turned sadder than ever. "I am deeply against the euthanasia of healthy, adoptable species."
"Wait. You're not going to--"
"Not if we find you a home." She balled her hand into a fist. "I'll widen my circle of human interaction. I'll volunteer double this week, even though I'm overstaying my welcome with the solar locals."
Ataahua slumped back onto his couch. "You've never answered why we can't self-govern."
"I didn't think you were serious."
The Secretary-General raised his eyebrows.
"Well, first, it's ridiculous." Joy said. "If you had access to the standard technology package, you'd be a mess of reconfigured molecules within minutes. Some of us star-dwellers are scarcely responsible enough for it."
"We don't need your technology. Just let us be."
"Life without the standard package? Not at all humane." Joy shuddered. "But let's say we left you. You'd multiply and spread over everything: planets, asteroids, dark matter conveyance belts. You'd get caught in the mechanics and gunk up everything. Always happens."
"We'd agreed not to leave the Earth."
"That's the problem. Who would agree not to leave? You have no authority except to consult with your member states. And only their figureheads. And even they keep changing. Nothing is binding."
Ataahua could not think of a counterargument. ...
If aliens come in, we're doomed (Score:5, Insightful)
The three driving motivators for humankind are greed, fear and greed. Whoever gets contacted first will sell the rest out for some magical beans, shiny beads and the promise to die last.
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You forgot about cats. Cats will save us somehow
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However, in any reasonable scenario of alien visitation, we shoul
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We hate each other enough that country A would gladly sell out country B, hey, we'd even help the aliens along to wipe them out. They're assholes anyway.
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However, in any reasonable scenario of alien visitation, we should assume we will be extinct in a generation.
Makes sense, by many orders of magnitude our strongest signals sent into space are the EMP from nuclear detonations.
Re: If aliens come in, we're doomed (Score:2)
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Owning thing is so last year. We'd get magical beans on a subscription plan in exchange for our resources and children.
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You'd get a 20% discount for agreeing to back passage probing.
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And you can keep that probe for free!
It will remain in your rectum and tell everyone who wants to pay for that info what you ate and how often you're on the can, but IT IS FREE! TO KEEP!
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What kind of unforgivable crime could I have done to be committed to a planet together with Alex Jones?
Consensus requires control (Score:4, Interesting)
And you do not have control, especially not outside of your own borders. If someone from Russia were to make first contact, do you imagine that they'd honor some treaty pushed by the United States or Brussels?
If the United States were to make first contact, should we bend a knee to China in determining our response? Or even consult with them? At all?
We do not have a "one world" government, so there will not be a "one world" response. The best you can do is to prevent wildcats inside your own borders from doing something potentially-stupid.
Furthermore, it is naive to assume that space-faring aliens would be stupid enough to deal with an individual party to the exclusion of all others. This isn't Contact.
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Aliens contact Moscow first:
Putini: Wow! Hey, you folks euthanize Ukraine...for me, Russia military sucks.
Alien: (*&(&^&$$&^
Putini: That's yes, no?
Alien: @%&$##*
Putini: Remove U.S. from planet too.
Alien: (*&&%%%*^ (hands Putini a present)
Putini: Ah, gift for Savior of Russia!!!
Alien: Is potato....(Blam...Putini's head disappears in puff of pink smoke)....Jesus, what a rube!
Might not be a problem (Score:3)
And you do not have control, especially not outside of your own borders. If someone from Russia were to make first contact, do you imagine that they'd honor some treaty pushed by the United States or Brussels?
If the United States were to make first contact, should we bend a knee to China in determining our response? Or even consult with them? At all?
We do not have a "one world" government, so there will not be a "one world" response. The best you can do is to prevent wildcats inside your own borders from doing something potentially-stupid.
Furthermore, it is naive to assume that space-faring aliens would be stupid enough to deal with an individual party to the exclusion of all others. This isn't Contact.
This might not be a problem.
Looking at the history of... well, pretty much everywhere, we see a general trend towards consolidation into larger and larger social groups.
Start with Chinese kingdoms, and unite into one large country. Or take a patchwork of feudal systems in Europe, and consolidate into nations, and eventually into a continent-wide European Union.
Or note that England and southern Europe were essentially fortified cities (city-states), then small nations (Wales, Scotland, Britain, Ireland,
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Brought to you by the tri-lats and all that.
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No need to worry (Score:5, Insightful)
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Our ruling class (Score:2)
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Your ruling class is not the same as my ruling class. Who says your ruling class gets to speak for me? I don't.
This is exactly the argument being made in the article. Who gets to speak for the entire human race?
The President of the United States? The King of England? The Emperor of Japan? The Grand Imam of al-Azhar? The Dalai Lama? The Pope?
None of them are my leader. They don't speak for me.
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If the ruling elites do something that has the public rioting, the ruling elite may not want that as part of the first impression that the aliens get.
Unless of course the aliens are fine with riots and destruction. :)
Yeah, I'm sure if this actually happens (Score:2)
The various world governments will all think "Hey, let's put those trekkies from SETI in charge".
If aliens have the technology to get here... (Score:2)
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doubleplustrue
Never happen (Score:2)
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Any "intelligent" being that approaches our planet, would have the ability to listen and watch what is on the news, television, radio, movies, internet. That coupled with the "space junk" which looks like a "shield" around our planet, any INTELLIGENCE would steer clear!
Or exterminate. I guess that's one way to solve global warming ...
There are no aliens (Score:2)
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Re:There are no aliens (Score:5, Interesting)
Or maybe what they're using for communications is a bit beyond what we have. Keep in mind that modern communications here would be pretty much unintelligible (and undetectable) as recently as 100 years ago. Hell, if we could describe what we use now to someone in WW2, they'd still not be able to receive our signals in all likelihood.
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That assumes the intelligence develops on a rocky planet with enough radioactive material in the upper crust to begin fission reactions capable of creating nuclear energy. If their society gets enough energy from other sources (think water planets, gas planets, frozen planets) then they might not have a nuclear stage and find a manageable energy source that isn't world destroying.
They may have a similar civilization bottleneck by exhausting their own unique power sources (exotic salts, superconductive meth
Assessing alien intelligence (Score:2)
No, it WON'T be transformative (Score:2)
When life at the bottom of the oceans (Mariana Trench, etc.) discovered for the majority of people it had ZERO impact. "First" (sic.) contact will be no different. Most people will go "that's nice" and their life will continue exactly as it did the day before.
Check back in 2050 when "We are not alone" will be common knowledge.
Just dont let the religious halfwits be involved (Score:5, Insightful)
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It will probably be impossible to stop them. Chances are you won't need a special tachyon powered subspace transmitter to talk to them, anyone will be able to blast radio waves in their direction.
I seem to recall the was a novel about that scenario, maybe by Arthur C Clarke. Someone sent the text of the Bible to a robotic probe visiting Earth, and the probe's logical AI tore it apart.
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Maybe the new thing will be to bomb anyone building large transmitters. I mean we already do that to Iran when it wants to build nukes.
It's possible that the arguement over who makes contact may actually lead to World War 3 on Earth.
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Not ready for "first contact" (Score:2)
The rashest rich asshat (Score:4, Informative)
The most irresponsible rash actor of a rich idiot who can buy access to a big transmitter. So, Elon Musk :-(
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This is 100% the correct answer.
For comparison, consider the guy earlier this week who started throwing particulate into the atmosphere to advance climate change: https://news.slashdot.org/story/22/12/27/2242207/a-startup-is-releasing-particles-into-the-atmosphere-to-tweak-the-climate [slashdot.org]
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The most irresponsible rash actor of a rich idiot who can buy access to a big transmitter. So, Elon Musk :-(
Isn’t he the first guy to lose $200 million? I can’t say I remember much about him but that.
Re:The rashest rich asshat (Score:4, Informative)
Isn’t he the first guy to lose $200 million? I can’t say I remember much about him but that.
LOL you remember wrong. By 3 orders of magnitude wrong. He lost $200bn, ... and doesn't seem to give a fuck. That's how much of a rich idiot he is.
To the tune of Every Rose Has Its Thorn! (Score:2)
Ev-ry chicken has its head, .
Just like ev-ry investment has its payoff,
Just like ev-ry government has it's big spooky eye,
Ev-ry chicken has its head . .
Yes, it does
Some nut with a PhD decides we need authoritarianism to deal with movie plot threats.
News for nerds. Stuff that matters.
/me drops mic
It doesn't really matter (Score:5, Insightful)
Space is big. There's nobody within travel distance. Everything you've read about 'nearby potentially habitable exoplanets' has been referring to rocky worlds tidally locked to their red dwarf parent star, and they're almost certainly NOT habitable.
We're not even really set up to receive a signal from beyond the minimum likely distance it would come from, and we don't have the capability to signal back. It'd all be lost in the background noise.
So OK... we somehow get a signal. It's probably going to come from 100 ly away. The very edge of our ability to send a coherent signal if we really wanted to. Very few could receive that signal (assuming reasonable limits on the transmitter, and that no alien civilization is going to devote all their available resources to signalling us).
The people who could answer would need to build the required hardware first, and it's not going to be inexpensive. The people most likely able to build it are least motivated to do so, they have better things to do than join a conversation with a 200 year round trip lag time.
But even if they built a transmitter and sent, "You bastards, now that we know you're there we're coming to exterminate you, pray to your God"... so what? We think we might be able to get up to maybe ~70% of c with an antimatter drive. So the aliens receive our threat and decide to respond - and arrive on Earth 240 years after the threat was sent.
I know I'm losing sleep over that. (/s)
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Totally, totally BS (Score:2)
If aliens come, THEY will decide who they want to contact.
Same as we would do in their place.
No one would (Score:5, Interesting)
The aliens would fly over, take what they need, wipe out those who oppose and move on to another planet. No questions asked. We'd be like ants when played with by humans. We'd be technologically incapable to respond or oppose in any way.
Re:No one would (Score:5, Insightful)
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Primates can barely use tools, but we don't consider them "bugs". I think it's likely that she civilisation that reached the point where it can cross those distances would have developed a respect for life and recognize our sentience.
Timescale not Consistent (Score:2)
Any creature that can traverse the vastness of space in anything less than millennia would consider us bugs at best.
That's not what the historical record suggests if the aliens are at all like humans (and if they are not you have nothing to do on and so no reason to make such an assumption). When Europeans encountered the North American tribes they saw them as primitive peoples who needed to be educated and not just as bugs.
For them to regard us as bugs they would need to be hundreds of millions of years more advanced than we are and on that time scale, even restricted to sub-light speeds any civilisation would have
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I dunno. I get the impression that any race advanced enough to travel through space to any meaningful degree will have "mountain eaters" capable of mining whatever they need from any old asteroid or planet. Space is mostly homogeneous, so targeting and invading Earth for precious materials doesn't seem to be particularly worthwhile.
Maybe they'd want to colonize our planet if they can tolerate our atmosphere and climate... or this would be a popular tourist trap.
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They may decide to kill all our leaders to "demoralise" us.
Since most of our leaders are pretty self centered and not thinking of the general public, I think most of the public will celebrate the arrival of the aliens and for freeing us from entrenched interests.
Easy answer (Score:2)
senile old fucks (Score:2)
Who is in charge now, mostly senile old fucks that have spent the majority of their life insulated from the real world while playing the game of politics
What do you mean, what will "we" do? (Score:3)
"We" will do whatever each of us individually decides to do.
Humans are not a hive species.
Luis Ignacio "Lula" da Silva! (Score:2)
South Park did it already (Score:2)
The episode "Pinewood Derby" summed up the cynical view of it, that we will lie and cheat to such a degree that we fail the test to be admitted to the greater community of the cosmos.
everyone (Score:2)
Everyone with a satellite dish they can aim can send a message back, and some will. Dozens in the US alone will even if the US government says not to. Some have bigger and more powerful dishes than others. I recommend continuously streaming Gilligan's Island.
What SHOULD we do? They'll be able to stomp us flat until we've mastered nanotech and space travel and grown accustomed to it for at least thousands of years. Best hope is we aren't contacted by anyone for several thousands of years yet.
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Everyone with a satellite dish they can aim can send a message back, and some will
...with no effect whatsoever, since the effective isotopic radiated power from a satellite dish would be many orders of magnitude below the noise for any signal at interstellar distance.
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Everyone with a satellite dish they can aim can send a message back, and some will.
Nope. The inverse-square law means that the strongest signal ordinary equipment can send will be well below the noise floor at the nearest star. Free space path loss between Earth and Alpha Centauri @ 1 Ghz is over 360 dB. To overcome that, you need enormous antenna gain on both ends (say, Arecibo-sized), enormous transmission power (again, around Arecibo-sized) and tremendous receiver sensitivity. This is not something you can do with any ordinary satellite dish and transmitter.
Invite two of them for dinner (Score:2)
We should invite some aliens over, then cook and eat some of them and see if they taste nice and are easily digestible. And are their hides and bones usable? Can living aliens be easily trained in useful tasks? Do they breed well in captivity? All basic stuff. Which they will probably be trying to do to us.
Weaponize it (Score:2)
Plenty of movies and stories postulate the government will seize all the technology they can and weaponize it. It's difficult to imagine "amoral" corporations acting differently. The result will be the Corporate Nation predicted in the movie Network, 1976.
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Weaponize what? You have been watching to many bad movies. I doubt very seriously that any message that we receive from another civilization will contain anything that we can "weaponize."
Realistically, any message we do intercept will not be aimed at us. It will instead be simply the products of a technological civilization, just like the radar signals talked about in the article. The radar signals themselves contain no information in themselves. But what can be figured out from them is they are ar
Ask for help. (Score:2)
The first step (should they be within a "short" distance) is to request scientific knowledge so that we can save our planet from it's impending devastation. It could be as simple as an efficient way to filter or split CO2 or as complex as how to design a high output fusion reactor. If they want to know us then surely they would help us.
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The first step (should they be within a "short" distance) is to request scientific knowledge so that we can save our planet from it's impending devastation.
And in 200 years we'll get their answer: "stop burning fossil carbon sources."
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You seem to have missed the part that reads, "should they be within a "short" distance".
Reading is fundamental.
short distance (Score:3)
100 ly is a short distance as far as the galaxy goes.
Probably not our decision (Score:4, Insightful)
Any species capable of traveling to earth, that wants to make contact with humans, will probably have done their homework. They will decide who to make contact with, and what they want to happen next.
100,000 year old message exchange (Score:2)
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""The bigger concern is to establish some form of international agreement to prevent capable individuals or private corporations from responding independently — before a consensus has formed on whether it is safe to respond at all, and what we would want to say as one planet," he said.
And the religious zealots will completely ignore this, of course, and will broadcast the gospel(s) at the highest power they are capable of.
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This has been done to death (Score:4, Interesting)
Any alien civilization that has the capability to a) show up on our doorstep by FTL travel or b) open a line of communication to us through some FTL means. Either way, you’re talking about a civilization that’s so far ahead of us that they’ll have no reason to interact with us. When was the last time you attempted to communicate with the earthworms in your backyard?
What could they possibly want with us or our planet? Resources? Don’t make me laugh. A species that advanced has definitely figured out robotics and nanotechnology. Infinite physical resources available from the nearest planet or asteroid belt. Maybe they want our ecosystem? For a species that advanced, terraforming would be trivial, but why bother when you can simply construct bespoke living habitats the size of small moons. Maybe they want our brains or bodies. We’re just a bunch of C, O, H, N, P, S and traces of the rest. If they have nanotechnology, biosynthesis will be trivial.
Oh, wait, this isnt being done by hard science people. It’s being done by linguists and science COMMUNICATION types. Kudos to what they do, but I’m not gonna lose any sleep prepping for contact by our alien overlords. The two plausible scenarios are a) we don’t get contacted or b) they wipe us out a la “3-body problem” and we never even see it coming.
If I were an alien looking down from above (Score:2)
Misanthropic, imprisoned Chinese astrophysicist (Score:3)
... of course.
Really disappointed that no one has mentioned Ye Wenjie [wikipedia.org].
Who says they haven't already? (Score:2)
one thing for sure (Score:3)
They decide! (Score:2)
Obviously, they decide! Given how advanced they must be to travel here, I doubt our opinion matters, including on what we do next.
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I think they have already decided [youtube.com].
...Idiots Would have Exclusive Contact with Them (Score:2)
hmm (Score:3)
Tough for them. I'm already broadcasting all the hentai I possibly can into space in the hopes that aliens see it, and decide to visit us disguised as sex craved catgirls.
Depends on the Cost & Latency (Score:2)
If a transmitter costs a few million then everybody and their dog is responding.
If a transmitter is a few billion, and the speed of light holds true, then you get the US & EU trying to rally the big Democratic nations to make one decision while China teams up with Russia to be first to send.
If the speed of light doesn't hold true then every power block is making their own transmitter as fast as possible because regardless of the risks there's massive benefits to being first.
The UN will handle it (Score:2)
Who decides what happens next? (Score:2)
The aliens.
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This. Instead of wondering if they have souls, we should be praying they think we do.
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'If Aliens Contact Humanity, Who Decides What We Do Next?'
I dunno, but it should be an elected official, who will insinuate themselves anyway!
Aliens scan his brain.
Alien 1: "Oh, look. Another corrupt liar with the gift of gab."
Alien 2: "Blow up the planet?"
Alien 1: "Blow up the planet."
This is based on the original decision on who to send in Contact, by the way.
But then again... (Score:2)
One thing's for sure: It would be hilarious. (Score:3)
What would chimps do? (Score:2)
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("Nice" aliens exist and know this is going on but are far too terrified to intercede.)
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Walmart on Black Friday (Score:2)
That is simply another form of mob rule, and will quickly be conquered by whoever forms an organized military.
Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust (Score:2)