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Space NASA

Why Musk's Biggest Space Gamble Is Freaking Out His Competitors (politico.com) 289

schwit1 shares a report from Politico: Starship is threatening NASA's moon contractors, which are watching its progress with a mix of awe and horror. "They are shitting the bed," said a top Washington space lobbyist who works for SpaceX's competitors and asked for anonymity to avoid upsetting his clients. NASA and its major industry partners are simultaneously scrambling to complete their own moon vehicles: the Space Launch System mega-rocket and companion Orion capsule. But the program is billions of dollars over budget and years behind schedule -- and, many would argue, generations behind SpaceX in innovation.

The space agency's first three Artemis moon missions over the next three years -- including a human landing planned for 2025 -- are all set to travel aboard the SLS rocket and Orion capsule, which are being built by Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Aerojet Rocketdyne and numerous other suppliers and engineering services firms. But with the SLS' first flight this year further delayed at least until late spring, concerns are growing that even if it succeeds, the system, at an estimated $2 billion per launch, could prove too costly for the multiple journeys to the moon that NASA will need to build a permanent human presence on the lunar surface.

That makes Starship, which conducted a successful flight to the edge of space last year, especially threatening to the contractors and their allies in Congress. As Starship progresses, it will further eclipse the argument for sticking with SLS, according to Rand Simberg, an aerospace engineer and space consultant. "Once the new system's reliability is demonstrated with a large number of flights, which could happen in a matter of months, it will obsolesce all existing launch systems," he said. "If SLS is not going to fly more than once every couple of years, it's just not going to be a significant player in the future in space, particularly when Starship is flown," he added.

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Why Musk's Biggest Space Gamble Is Freaking Out His Competitors

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  • by MrKaos ( 858439 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @05:06AM (#62268595) Journal

    Obsolete thinking has to make way for something that works. Too bad we've been held back for as long as we have been. Too big to fail also means unlikely to succeed.

    Innovation is the point of capitalism which is a cogent threat to corporatism.

    • by bettersheep ( 6768408 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @06:58AM (#62268749)

      Because the big corporations never work to shout out competitors ?!

      Capitalism only works when reined in by strict regulation.

      • I thought spacex was a nasa contractor? lots of suspicious marketing spin in this one.
        • by Smidge204 ( 605297 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @07:46AM (#62268857) Journal

          They're more than happy to put in a competitive bid to NASA for a contract. Money is money.

          But unlike some of their competitors, their business model does not rely on near perpetual government contracts, secured through small, legislatively exclusive pools of competitors.

          The key difference is SpaceX would be going to the Moon and Mars with or without NASA's contracts. They've already been developing the tech and launch platforms to do it, and are years ahead of their competitors as a result. Out of all the companies that put in proposals for a manned mission to the Moon, only SpaceX had a man-rated launch system already in operation.
          =Smidge=

          • by jythie ( 914043 )
            A more accurate way of framing that though is that SpaceX was not nearly as dependent on contracts in general, not just government ones. Meaning it was not behaving like a capitalist company, but instead an enlightenment era artist with a rich patron. Their business model depends on not needing to respond fully to market or political forces.
          • by XXongo ( 3986865 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @02:31PM (#62270205) Homepage

            They're more than happy to put in a competitive bid to NASA for a contract. Money is money. But unlike some of their competitors, their business model does not rely on near perpetual government contracts,

            Their original business model (Falcon I) failed. Their revised business model was to build a launch vehicle using NASA funding, which succeeded. While they now make a large number of non-NASA launches, this is no different from the legacy aerospace contractors, who developed vehicles with government (usually Air Force) funding and then went into the commercial launch business with those vehicles.

            secured through small, legislatively exclusive pools of competitors.

            No, the "legislatively exclusive" part is misinformation. There is ONE legislatively-mandated launch vehicle (SLS), but outside of that, NASA (and the Air Force) has supported a large number of start-ups... including SpaceX.

            The key difference is SpaceX would be going to the Moon and Mars with or without NASA's contracts.

            Until they bid (and won) the $2.9 billion NASA lunar lander contract [nytimes.com], they had showed no interest at all in the moon. Now that they have, the NASA contract has become their main funding for developing Starship.

            They've already been developing the tech and launch platforms to do it, and are years ahead of their competitors as a result. Out of all the companies that put in proposals for a manned mission to the Moon, only SpaceX had a man-rated launch system already in operation.

            This part is accurate. Although it's also true that the lunar lander competition did not require a human-rated launch system.

      • by DrMrLordX ( 559371 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @07:08AM (#62268775)

        What's the "strict regulation" that's allowing SpaceX to achieve success while Lockheed and Boeing find failures or delays?

        • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

          by Hodr ( 219920 )

          Regulation within the companies that they must milk tax payers for every possible penny for as many years as possible.

          I never invested in Tesla, and have always from day one thought they were overvalued (though I like the cars). But I have wanted to invest in SpaceX since the very first launch I heard about, and after hearing about Starlink I was ready to put my entire 401k towards it. But they will likely not go public until well after they have finished growing. Good for the company I guess, not good for

        • Likely all the requirements piled on by NASA and congress.

          NASA requires MILSPEC, which inflates the cost of everything being purchased for NASA programs. They don't require MILSPEC for commercial crew, as SpaceX is a shipper, and not building and selling the rocket to NASA.

      • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

        (Free market) capitalism requires that there is competition in a free market. Both Adam Smith and Marx pointed out that with no regulation things degenerate into some form of feudalism.

        "Capitalism" doesn't mean "do whatever the fuck you want." It never has.

    • by registrations_suck ( 1075251 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @07:07AM (#62268773)

      The point of of capitalism is to create wealth. Innovation is just a tool. If wealth can be created by any other means, those too will be tools.

      • The point of of capitalism is to steal wealth. Innovation is just a tool. If wealth can be created by any other means, those too will be tools.

        FTFY.

    • by orlanz ( 882574 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @07:29AM (#62268819)

      You sure you want to bark up that tree? China is also doing well. And NASA on their own was too decades ago.

      Before they were forced to privatize in the name of innovation and capitalism by bidding out to a few select private companies. A relationship that has been mostly a money sink.

      Most public+private partnerships are like this where the latter finds it more profitable to invest in politicians and regulatory control rather than focus on their product.

    • Seriously... the government just needs to stay out of Elon Musk's way and let him build the Starship needed to return to his home planet. He seems to be doing a decent job repurposing primitive earthling technology for his needs.

    • Dude, stop seeing in capitalism what it doesn't have. Capitalism buys innovation to stifle innovation, because innovation is competitive. Those big corporations involved in SLS, with Boeing are the essence of (late stage) capitalism. They should go bankrupt and take capitalism with them.

      Other example? Look at YouTube (bought by google) and the google's "innovative" removal of progress indicator in suggestions. They "innovated" to make you view the same videos (and more ads) more often. THAT is capitalism.

  • FAA (Score:5, Insightful)

    by monkeyxpress ( 4016725 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @05:12AM (#62268603)

    at an estimated $2 billion per launch, could prove too costly for the multiple journeys to the moon

    Wow, they must be throwing money hand over fist at FAA and environmental lobbyists right now. That's their best hope - get starship bogged down with regulatory reviews.

    I wonder if these people ever stop to think of they world they would live in if their ilk were able to truly destroy the efforts of those who wish to push humanity forward.

    • Re:FAA (Score:5, Interesting)

      by backslashdot ( 95548 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @07:23AM (#62268807)

      Yup. That is exactly right, environmental review is their tactic. They know environmental review is highly subjective. There’s bound to be some species of crab in Boca Chica that is scared off by rocket engines and that can be used to bash SpaceX over the head.
      It does not help that Elon goes out of his way to be anti-Biden on twitter, it seems like Elon keeps grudges just as bad as the government does. Maybe he needs a class on psychology, strategy, and diplomacy.

      • Maybe he needs a class on psychology, strategy, and diplomacy.

        Well he's the richest man in the world...
        So he's doing 'Ok' without your advice.

        Are you sure we want to make him stronger?

  • by r2kordmaa ( 1163933 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @05:36AM (#62268623)
    Then what precisely is the point of SLS and Orion in Moon program? Transfer between LEO and lunar orbit - Starship can do that, it already has to in order to land on Moon. The only bit that might be dodgy for Starship is manned re-entry on Earth, who knows when that might get approved. But there is a trivial bypass for that, Dragon can ferry people to and from LEO and just transfer to Starship which continues to lunar orbit.

    Other than pork, SLS and Orion don't really serve any purposes.

    • "Other than pork" Pork for their donors is the only real thing Congress produces. Wait! they also produce huge problems. Congress is a corrupt wasteland of rich arrogant, useless elites of "all" parties. Go SpaceX! Go Musk!
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      Creating/keeping highpaying jobs in the states through political power and taxmoney. Thats why people often refer to SLS as Senate Launch System.
      SLS is slow, superexpensive, late, uncompetetive but keeps jobs and ppl inb office. But have nothing to do with effectiveness, science, explorations or sustainability at all. Sadge.

      • Sounds counterproductive, a highly skilled engineer doesn't need government handouts and a incompetent one shouldn't be let near a Moon rocket so who exactly are these jobs for anyway? It just keeps skilled people doing pointless busywork instead of creating real value in private sector.
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Other than pork, SLS and Orion don't really serve any purposes.

      Pretty much. They are old tech that is very obsolete at this time.

    • by Xylantiel ( 177496 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @09:40AM (#62269123)

      Besides pork, I think the point of SLS was to be the "other bet". When NASA started the commercial launch provider model that SpaceX has been so successful under, it was not clear that it would work. It still is not a sure thing that starship will work out, but getting better all the time. SLS was the "traditional" hedge bet in case SpaceX's model didn't succeed. So the idea would be that after a few launches that complete the technology proving, which is worthwhile from a technology development point of view, SLS will end. NASA won't need in-house launch capability at that scale since it will be available on the open market. I would argue that has been the plan all along, i.e. it's good to have a back-up, even if it is expensive.

      The other way to look at it is that NASA figured out a way to get out from under the thumb of congress telling them what kind of tech they can use for their rockets by moving that choice outside NASA (into the market) and making it so conspicuously cheaper. Basically working around the bad direction from congress.

    • by nightflameauto ( 6607976 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @09:50AM (#62269139)

      Pork is the point. Space has went through thirty plus years of the government using it as a money funnel to favorite donors, and not seen as an area for innovation. The tech involved in the SLS is all old tech repurposed. The one thing I'll give Musk is his push to get SpaceX moving things forward. If SpaceX hadn't existed and been this successful, we'd probably be hearing about how the moon mission had been pushed off to 2035 and the SLS will need to be re-engineered from the boosters up for the hundredth time. While there are other players on the field, SpaceX getting their human rating for the Dragon Capsules scared the old guard enough to actually start trying. But "trying" for them is a much slower process than it is for SpaceX with its fast iteration and expectation of failure in early prototypes to learn lessons to apply to the next iteration.

      I'm no Musk fanboy, but SpaceX, despite not matching his fantasy timeline, is actually getting something done. Whether it will be allowed to continue here in the states or not may be up for debate soon, as they're waiting on regulatory approval for an orbital test, and have been for months. I could definitely see the old guard lobbying HARD to get them shut down, or at least on indefinite administrative hold "for review." Not sure how long Musk's patience will last on that front. He doesn't strike me as the type of dude that will let this drag on for years.

  • by pahles ( 701275 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @06:21AM (#62268701)
    Starship has only flown to about 12.5 km altitude, hardly the edge of space...
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      Remind me how many times the SLS and Orion have flown?
      • by quenda ( 644621 )

        Remind me how many times the SLS and Orion have flown?

        Orion, unlike Starship or SLS has been to space. I'll forgive you for forgetting since it was seven years ago.

    • by tragedy ( 27079 )

      Starship has only flown to about 12.5 km altitude, hardly the edge of space...

      True. However, getting to space seems to actually be the easy part. There's very little doubt that they can make it to space. Their high altitude flights so far seem to have been much more focused on just getting it high enough that they can practice landing maneuvers. Logically, it does seem like that part should come first.

  • by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @06:37AM (#62268717)

    Big firms like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman are bogged down in a corporate culture of just doing business which means they are minimizing risk and expense which is how they approach every problem. SpaceX on the other hand got into the game risking it all, taking it's success and attempting what established businesses called a pipe dream. The difference is that decision makers at the businesses are not really interest in pushing further and faster, they are just in it for money. SpaceX is still run by people who were risking it all when it started.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @07:39AM (#62268839) Homepage Journal

      Musk tends to over-promise and under-deliver. He does get some impressive tech out there, but you would be unwise to rely on his predictions when planning your timetable.

      Full Self Driving - 6 years late and counting
      New Roadster - 5 years late and counting
      1 Million Robotaxis - 3 years late and counting
      Tesla Semi 500 mile range - 3 years late and counting
      Cybertruck - 1 year late and counting
      Solar Powered Superchargers - 5 years late and counting

      The list goes on. If he says he will get you to the Moon by 2025, don't start packing.

      • by tragedy ( 27079 )

        A question on those. By "Solar Powered Superchargers" do you mean 100% solar powered? Because Tesla definitely has solar powered superchargers, but they only get some of their power from solar.

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

          Musk promised that superchargers would be 100% powered by solar, in response to a question about how clean electric vehicles really are when the coal fire power station can be seen from the supercharger site.

          He also promised that there would a "SpaceX edition" of the new Roadster, with integrated rocket motors. He even described how they would help you accelerate and take corners.

      • Musk tends to over-promise and under-deliver.

        I have no illusions here. He absolutely does when it comes to Tesla because a large part of why he's there is because he's a talented hype man to get people excited as it's a publicly traded company. Higher the hype, the higher the stock price. SpaceX is not publicly traded, so there is a lot less product hype though he does want people to be thinking and excited about space. If you recall, he didn't think SpaceX would be a success but he wanted people thinking about space again.

        I don't think anybody is

      • If a "hey, we're working on this cool thing, we plan to have it ready by ..." constitutes a "promise" in your mind, then yes. But that is your problem, not Musk's.
    • by Entrope ( 68843 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @08:25AM (#62268937) Homepage

      If "risking it all", even combined with "skin in the game", determined who wins then Las Vegas would not exist. There's a lot more to success -- especially groundbreaking success -- than those two factors. There has to be uncommon acumen and someone who is in the right place at the right time, not just a willingness to dump a lot of resources on an unsure thing.

      • There's a lot more to success -- especially groundbreaking success -- than those two factors. There has to be uncommon acumen and someone who is in the right place at the right time, not just a willingness to dump a lot of resources on an unsure thing.

        The piece that you are missing is that the other companies are publicly traded, so they are highly averse to risk taking when it's not immediately profitable. To that end, the ULA didn't even bother to design their own rocket engine, they just used old rockets from the 1960s. The knowledge to design a new rocket existed but building up the institutional knowledge and hiring people to work on it may or may not end up saving them money and that takes a lot of time compared of just buying old rocket engines.

    • To be fair, if you're a big contractor serving GOVERNMENT projects, their strategy IS the highest reward, lowest risk choice.
      They are the optimized survival product of their environment.

      Particularly when serving a government that is
      - utterly risk averse
      - swollen with money (so what if we have to borrow 1/3 from the hand-wavy future to pay for it)
      - unable to make and stick to long term plans, with the political winds changing direction 180 degrees about every 8 years

      Look at the Challenger investigation - som

  • by nukenerd ( 172703 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @06:42AM (#62268725)

    Starship, which conducted a successful flight to the edge of space last year

    Where the fuck is that? I can think of two meanings, both extreme :

    1) Where the Earth's atmosphere peters out
    2) Where the leading edge of the Big Bang shockwave has reached

    • by DrMrLordX ( 559371 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @07:11AM (#62268783)

      Clearly it's the latter.

      . . .

      *cough*

    • by Alcari ( 1017246 )
      apparentlu space is 12.5km away. I recall space being quite a bit further away, but they wouldn't be wrong about that, would they?
    • by clovis ( 4684 )

      Starship, which conducted a successful flight to the edge of space last year

      Where the fuck is that? I can think of two meanings, both extreme :

      1) Where the Earth's atmosphere peters out

      2) Where the leading edge of the Big Bang shockwave has reached

      The edge of space is where the turtle's shell begins.

  • I don't see this in the article - has SpaceX estimated what the cost of a Starship launch will be once in full swing? I'm sure it'll be less than $2 billion given the re-usability, but it would be useful to have a sense of how much less before declaring it the obvious alternative to SLS.

  • It's great to see SpaceX giving the industry the giant kick in the arse that it long desperately needed. The absurd costs and slow uninspired development were only getting worse over time, as these things usually do. So SpaceX has added new hope and vigor where nearly none existed, before.

    That said, I really hope the FAA doesn't give SpaceX too hard of a time with Starship. I have a feeling the Biden administration isn't super friendly and isn't going to offer any help (as judged by President Biden's hos

    • I hope he doesn't unnecessarily antagonize the FAA (or the Biden administration).

      Yeah, it would be a shame to see SpaceX pack up and move to another country because FAA or the Biden administration shat the bed.

  • ...chastity. Does this mean there won't be any NASA personnel shagging on the moon?
  • "shitting the bed"

    I don't know how well Politico follows up on its posts, but a quote that perfectly entertaining deserves some scrutiny. Even anonymously, people in professional circles don't usually speak with such direct punchiness against their own interests. Caution and discretion are the rule, and the exceptions are rarely so figurative and on-point at capturing zeitgeist.

    Reality tends not to be this satisfying. But if everything is as advertised, well done!
  • 'Shit the bed' means die. As in, "my car shit the bed this morning". It's because when you die, well...

    'Shit your pants' means fear. I'm told that happens IRL, too.

    Top lobbyist, huh?
  • The FAA denies permits to Space-X launch of Starship until a safety panel can be convened to study the issues.
  • by Berkyjay ( 1225604 ) on Tuesday February 15, 2022 @12:42PM (#62269701)

    which conducted a successful flight to the edge of space last year

    They did not. I think at best it reached 6 miles in height. It has not even come close to space at this point.

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