China, Not SpaceX, May Be Source of Rocket Part Crashing Into Moon (nytimes.com) 30
An anonymous reader quotes a report from the New York Times: On March 4, a human-made piece of rocket detritus will slam into the moon. But it turns out that it is not, as was previously stated in a number of reports, including by The New York Times, Elon Musk's SpaceX that will be responsible for making a crater on the lunar surface. Instead, the cause is likely to be a piece of a rocket launched by China's space agency.
Last month, Bill Gray, developer of Project Pluto, a suite of astronomical software used to calculate the orbits of asteroids and comets, announced that the upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket was on a trajectory that would intersect with the path of the moon. [...] But an email on Saturday from Jon Giorgini, an engineer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, changed the story. Mr. Giorgini runs Horizons, an online database that can generate locations and orbits for the almost 1.2 million objects in the solar system, including about 200 spacecraft. A user of Horizons asked Mr. Giorgini how certain it was that the object was part of the DSCOVR rocket. "That prompted me to look into the case," Mr. Giorgini said.
Part of a rocket is expected to crash into the far side of the moon on March 4. Initially thought to be a SpaceX rocket stage, the object may actually be part of a Long March 3C rocket [that launched China's Chang'e-5 T1 spacecraft on Oct. 23, 2014]. He found that the orbit was incompatible with the trajectory that DSCOVR took, and contacted Mr. Gray. [...] Mr. Gray now realizes that his mistake was thinking that DSCOVR was launched on a trajectory toward the moon and using its gravity to swing the spacecraft to its final destination about a million miles from Earth where the spacecraft provides warning of incoming solar storms. But, as Mr. Giorgini pointed out, DSCOVR was actually launched on a direct path that did not go past the moon. "I really wish that I had reviewed that" before putting out his January announcement, Mr. Gray said. "But yeah, once Jon Giorgini pointed it out, it became pretty clear that I had really gotten it wrong." There is still no chance of the rocket missing the moon, the report says.
"As for what happened to that Falcon 9 part, 'we're still trying to figure out where the DSCOVR second stage might be,' Mr. Gray said," according to the Times. "The best guess is that it ended up in orbit around the sun instead of the Earth, and it could still be out there. That would put it out of view for now."
Last month, Bill Gray, developer of Project Pluto, a suite of astronomical software used to calculate the orbits of asteroids and comets, announced that the upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket was on a trajectory that would intersect with the path of the moon. [...] But an email on Saturday from Jon Giorgini, an engineer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, changed the story. Mr. Giorgini runs Horizons, an online database that can generate locations and orbits for the almost 1.2 million objects in the solar system, including about 200 spacecraft. A user of Horizons asked Mr. Giorgini how certain it was that the object was part of the DSCOVR rocket. "That prompted me to look into the case," Mr. Giorgini said.
Part of a rocket is expected to crash into the far side of the moon on March 4. Initially thought to be a SpaceX rocket stage, the object may actually be part of a Long March 3C rocket [that launched China's Chang'e-5 T1 spacecraft on Oct. 23, 2014]. He found that the orbit was incompatible with the trajectory that DSCOVR took, and contacted Mr. Gray. [...] Mr. Gray now realizes that his mistake was thinking that DSCOVR was launched on a trajectory toward the moon and using its gravity to swing the spacecraft to its final destination about a million miles from Earth where the spacecraft provides warning of incoming solar storms. But, as Mr. Giorgini pointed out, DSCOVR was actually launched on a direct path that did not go past the moon. "I really wish that I had reviewed that" before putting out his January announcement, Mr. Gray said. "But yeah, once Jon Giorgini pointed it out, it became pretty clear that I had really gotten it wrong." There is still no chance of the rocket missing the moon, the report says.
"As for what happened to that Falcon 9 part, 'we're still trying to figure out where the DSCOVR second stage might be,' Mr. Gray said," according to the Times. "The best guess is that it ended up in orbit around the sun instead of the Earth, and it could still be out there. That would put it out of view for now."
Holy crap... (Score:2)
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Seeing conspiracies everywhere just leaves the impression you are a nutjob.
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This is a pretty incredible level of creativity being funneled into stupid instead of entertainment. Write a book or something. Save the conspiracy theories for your therapist.
Re: Holy crap... (Score:3)
He's one of the very few people in the world actually tracking these things, and he's doing it in his spare time. Based on his website he has tracked many objects over the years, so I'm not declaring him unreliable based upon one mistake. He admitted the mistake, tracked down (openly) what the origin of the mistake was, and reasoned out why he now thinks is from a Chinese launch. Kudos to him for being so open about it.
None of this actually matters in this case, beyond sheer curiosity. The moon doesn't care
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He admitted it on February 12th [projectpluto.com], the same day that he was contacted by Jon Giorgini. That was two days before your post. So now I'm pointing out that you're wrong, and I await your admission of that fact.
Wouldn't a misidentification of a manmade object, that nobody questions will smack into the moon soon, invite a better identification?
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No, but my cousin does, and WE pays her to write spin.
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Hey, I'll bet she was the one who fired that space junk at the Moon. You should look into that.
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Uh, excuse me? (Score:2)
Isn't that kind of a large object to misplace? I mean, it's not like it's lost in the parking lot at Disneyland, you'd think they'd know where it ended up.
Re:Uh, excuse me? (Score:5, Funny)
it's not like it's lost in the parking lot at Disneyland
“Space [...] is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly hugely mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space.” Douglas Adams.
Re: Uh, excuse me? (Score:1)
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They know where it was when it was discarded, but only vaguely what direction it flew off in. As time goes on the uncertainty increases, plus it's a dark object so very hard to spot optically against the black background of space. Very easy to lose stuff in space.
Maybe its me, but... (Score:2)
As for what happened to that Falcon 9 part, 'we're still trying to figure out where the DSCOVR second stage might be,
...Personally, I'm more curious where the Tesla Space Roadster is now, and if its possible to get a live view of it.
Re: Maybe its me, but... (Score:2)
They mentioned it in the last article, though maybe only in the comments. It's got a crazy elliptical orbit and is like somewhere near Mars. There is a website devoted to tracking it. should be easy to google.
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whereisroadster.com [whereisroadster.com] can satisfy your curiosity. It's a bit imprecise, since the orbital parameters (based on the velocity and heading when the 2nd stage shut down) are not exactly known.
As to a live view, the answer is a solid No. The camera feeds were battery powered, and that was exhausted several days after launch. I'm sure SpaceX considered adding solar panels, but decided against i
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Why decided against it? Come on, science and curiousity! :(
Flying Crowbar (Score:1)
Interesting (Score:1)