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Medicine Science

South Africa Study Suggests Omicron Could Displace Delta (reuters.com) 100

Research by South African scientists suggests that Omicron could displace the Delta variant of the coronavirus because infection with the new variant boosts immunity to the older one. From a report: The study only covered a small group of people and has not been peer-reviewed, but it found that people who were infected with Omicron, especially those who were vaccinated, developed enhanced immunity to the Delta variant. The analysis enrolled 33 vaccinated and unvaccinated people who were infected with the Omicron variant in South Africa. While the authors found that neutralisation of Omicron increased 14-fold over 14 days after the enrolment, they also found that there was a 4.4-fold increase in neutralisation of the Delta variant. "The increase in Delta variant neutralization in individuals infected with Omicron may result in decreased ability of Delta to re-infect those individuals," the scientists who conducted the study said.
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South Africa Study Suggests Omicron Could Displace Delta

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  • by ickleberry ( 864871 ) <web@pineapple.vg> on Tuesday December 28, 2021 @11:12AM (#62122089) Homepage
    80%+ Of cases here are now Omicron. Hopefully it will start to die down soon
    • by waspleg ( 316038 )

      Delta is 99.4% in my city, with available ICU beds at ~12%. FEMA has already sent the Navy here to help at some of the hospitals that are over capacity.

      • by cirby ( 2599 )

        Considering that normal ICU occupancy is normally kept (intentionally) at 90% or better, that means they're BELOW normal use.

        The only problem we're seeing is that a lot of panicky people test positive and run to the emergency room - where they clog things up for the people who might actually be in danger.

        • by Kokuyo ( 549451 )

          No the real problem is that the current 100% is not the same as the 100% in the first wave. We've lost quite a few professionals to burnout and "All y'all can go f yourselves!"

          So any and all spikes in hospitalization will have a far greater impact percentage-wise than before.

          On the plus side, the vaccinated have a MUCH lower hospitalization rate... which is probably why our noses are still above water at the moment.

          Let's hope Omicron graces us all with its presence very soon and displaces Delta.

        • reference needed... not that I am saying you are wrong, rather I could believe you. I simply want to know where you heard this 90% figure?

        • This study from the National Institute of Health [nih.gov] calls bullshit on you.

          Abstract:

          Over the three years studied, total ICU occupancy ranged from 57.4% to 82.1% and the number of beds filled with mechanically ventilated patients ranged from 20.7% to 38.9%. There was no change in occupancy across years and no increase in occupancy during influenza seasons. Mean hourly occupancy across ICUs was 68.2% SD ± 21.3, and was substantially higher in ICUs with fewer beds (mean 75.8% (± 16.5) for 5–14 beds

        • Seriously?

          Either you live in a 3rd world country -or- you are rather stupid -or- both.

          How the funk would a health care system work if 90% of all beds are always occupied?

          Answer: it would collapse instantly if you have a highway accident in fog with 100 cars involved.

          Conclusion: your idea is simply completely bollocks.

      • by Entrope ( 68843 )

        What's the normal winter load for ICU beds there? In non-Covid times [beckershos...review.com], ICU occupancy might be "very close to capacity" or "92 percent" (quotes from different hospitals). Other research [researchgate.net] shows strong seasonal and location dependency, plausibly with an upwards trend over time but almost 90% usage being typical in the winter.

    • by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

      London is mostly Omicron now with if I heard right a million Londoners currently infected! Like WTF, have Londoners not been paying any attention for the last 2 years?

      Anyway, the data looks pretty conclusive to me, Delta is going down rapidly, nearly gone, very much being replaced by Omicron rather than being in addition to it. See chart at the time stamp linked https://youtu.be/n5uzrn4e0Wg?t... [youtu.be]

      • London is mostly Omicron now with if I heard right a million Londoners currently infected!
        Nope. A million Londoners where/are infected in total over the course of Covid.

        Why you link a youtube video instead of a research site is beyond me ...

        • by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

          Why you link a youtube video instead of a research site is beyond me ...

          Because that's where I saw the evidence, if you want to going hunting for a needle in a haystack, go knock yourself out. If you want to dispute the evidence then feel free to spend some time checking out all the the source links to the video. I trust this particular highly qualified medical professional to be able to do the research since it's something he's clearly very good at and the chart linked in the video speaks for itself it sho

    • 80%+ Of cases here are now Omicron. Hopefully it will start to die down soon.

      It will die down once white people in the middle age groups realize their death rate from infections [nytimes.com] as a percentage of all deaths has doubled or tripled compared to other groups.

      But then, it's not as if this is the same group telling everyone they'll never get vaccianted or wear a mask.
    • 80%+ Of cases here are now Omicron.

      That's something different.

      The fact that 80%+ cases are Omicron doesn't mean that Omicron has displaced or is displacing Delta. It means that Omicron has outstripped Delta, that it's propagating faster. But it's possible that having Omicron doesn't prevent you from getting Delta (we already know that having had Delta and other prior strains doesn't do much to protect you from Omicron). In the worst case, it could be that neither provides any immunity from the other, which would mean that the experience i

      • by jmke ( 776334 )

        80%+ Of cases here are now Omicron.

        That's something different.

        The fact that 80%+ cases are Omicron doesn't mean that Omicron has displaced or is displacing Delta. It means that Omicron has outstripped Delta, that it's propagating faster. But it's possible that having Omicron doesn't prevent you from getting Delta (we already know that having had Delta and other prior strains doesn't do much to protect you from Omicron)

        uhm, it's exactly about getting omicron is decreasing risk of getting re-infected with delta

        While the authors found that neutralisation of Omicron increased 14-fold over 14 days after the enrolment, they also found that there was a 4.4-fold increase in neutralisation of the Delta variant. "The increase in Delta variant neutralization in individuals infected with Omicron may result in decreased ability of Delta to re-infect those individuals,"

        • 80%+ Of cases here are now Omicron.

          That's something different.

          The fact that 80%+ cases are Omicron doesn't mean that Omicron has displaced or is displacing Delta. It means that Omicron has outstripped Delta, that it's propagating faster. But it's possible that having Omicron doesn't prevent you from getting Delta (we already know that having had Delta and other prior strains doesn't do much to protect you from Omicron)

          uhm, it's exactly about getting omicron is decreasing risk of getting re-infected with delta

          Yes, that's what the article is about. But 80+% of cases in Ireland being Omicron doesn't mean that getting infected with Omicron reduces the risk of getting infected with Delta. Delta cases could still be continuing just as they were, completely unaffected, but Omicron cases are simply growing faster.

          Putting some numbers on this might help. Let's suppose that before the arrival of Omicron, they had a steady 100 cases per day of Delta. After the arrival of Omicron, cases shoot up to 500 per day, and gen

    • Where?
      In most countries it is not even 1%.

      Germany has only a few confirmed Omicron cases ATM.

  • Awesome! (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Shuh ( 13578 ) on Tuesday December 28, 2021 @11:27AM (#62122153) Journal
    Now everyone can get immunized by Omicron and we can put all this behind us like SARS/Swineflu/Birdflu/etc. It's been been going on way too long.
    • Honestly, if this turns out to be a milder variant that rapidly infects everyone and gives backwards-compatible immunity, it's probably the best case scenario to get out of this shitshow. Vaccines are great, but they are losing their effectiveness and were not reaching large swaths of the world's populace. Combined with the threat of zoonosis, without something like Omicron we're probably stuck in this loop indefinitely.
      • Yep... evolution invented a communicable vaccine.

      • Re:Awesome! (Score:5, Insightful)

        by bws111 ( 1216812 ) on Tuesday December 28, 2021 @11:42AM (#62122203)

        Vaccines do not 'lose effectiveness'. The vaccine is gone from your body after a couple of weeks. What loses effectiveness is your immune system. What makes people think that your immune system won't lose effectiveness after an infection by omicron?

        • Nobody said infection by Omicron provides permanent immunity. The difference is infection by Omicron is self-perpetuating, possibly exponentially under the proper circumstances, and can reach more people more quickly than vaccines can.
      • by cirby ( 2599 )

        We already know that it's a much, much milder variant. In the places that have a big increase in Omicron cases, the serious illness and death rates are dropping like rocks.

        It's been common, for long enough, to know that it's incredibly mild - about half of the people who "had Omicron" didn't even know they were sick.

        Use this as a gauge for who you can trust. The people who are still selling panic porn over this are the ones you can safely ignore from here on out. No, there's no need to "wait for more data,"

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

      Germany just bought tens of millions of Omicron specific boosters, I don't see the point of taking a non-specific booster at this point, WHO are right, give the spare vaccines to countries that need them.

      • by omibus ( 116064 )

        I don't believe there is a Omicron specific booster, just the same Covid-19 vaccine, which still works...just not quite as well.

        • just the same Covid-19 vaccine, which still works...just not quite as well

          This is incorrect. The vaccine works exactly the same today and tomorrow as it did yesterday. It is like software. Without "pissing about making changes" then as it worked yesterday, so shall it work today and tomorrow, for all values of today.

          • by piojo ( 995934 )

            just the same Covid-19 vaccine, which still works...just not quite as well

            This is incorrect. The vaccine works exactly the same today and tomorrow as it did yesterday. It is like software. Without "pissing about making changes" then as it worked yesterday, so shall it work today and tomorrow, for all values of today.

            But in this case, the third party APIs have changed. Hence the vaccine/software does not work as well as it used to.

        • What you believe is random shit you saw on YouTube or Tilztok. Welcome to the modern age. What is scientifically indisputable is a different matter.

        • by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

          Germany have ordered 80 million doses.
          https://www.india.com/news/wor... [india.com]

          https://www.citizen.co.za/news... [citizen.co.za] .. Ah, it's an 'advance' order, so yes a vaccine in the making. Thing is infecting so fast that it may be too late by the time an Omicron specific vaccine arrives.

      • I don't see the point of taking a non-specific booster at this point

        The data show that a booster is effective [bmj.com] against Omicron. It increases the level of antibodies you have significantly and while not all of them work against Omicron enough do to significantly decrease your chance of getting sick and, at least in people 60+, also reduce the chance of severe illness.

        By the time an Omicron booster is available in ~March 2022 you will almost certainly have already been exposed to Omicron given the rate of spread so a regular booster is the best option at the moment. Howeve

        • by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

          It says after 2 AZ shots, a Moderna shot will cause my anti-body levels to be 32 times higher which does sound impressive, but IDK what the NHS would be giving me... A search says they are giving Moderna or Pfizer. Some of the reasons for getting vaccinated have not materialised such as the vaccine has clearly not resulted in herd immunity. If shots start to become annual like flu then I'm not interested unless a more dangerous variant appears, I have been paying enough attention to be able to strengthen my

          • Some of the reasons for getting vaccinated have not materialised such as the vaccine has clearly not resulted in herd immunity.
            And how should the vaccine provide or induce "herd immunity" when a huge deal of the herd is not vaccinated? What is next? You believe in magic?

            • by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

              It was initially stated that if 3 quarters of the population had immunity then we'd effectively have herd immunity, many places have higher vaccination and infection totals than that and it's turned out to be completely false, the vaccines efficacy drops fast. And now with the new variant the same vaccines do not appear to stop the spread of covid at all. I got vaccinated in order to stop the spread of COVID, that no longer works, the majority of vaccinated people will still be infectious with Omicron and l

              • It was initially stated that if 3 quarters of the population had immunity then we'd effectively have herd immunity,
                No idea where that was state.
                Fact is:

                a) we have not 3 quarters, that would be 75% of the population vaccinated/immune
                b) the virus has mutated meanwhile because of a)

                News guy: "what percent of people need to have contracted the virus" [to get herd immunity]
                UK Chief Scientific Advisor: "Probably about 60% or so"

                That was a wild guess.

                And because of that wild guess people though: "oh, no need to ge

        • The covid monstrosity may become less horrible but it will never be "just a cold."

          The viruses which cause the common cold do not attack every organ in your entire body. The viruses which cause the common cold do not leave any fraction of their victims debilitated for months at a time (and a smaller fractions debilitated for 1.5 years now and counting with no sign of relief).
          • The covid monstrosity may become less horrible but it will never be "just a cold."

            Clearly, you are not aware of history. When Europeans first discovered the Americas they brought with them (amongst other diseases) the common cold and this was deadly to the native populations because they had no natural immunity. Even today the common cold can be, in rare cases, deadly. When I was a school kid we had a girl at our school die of the "common cold" because it infected her heart.

            What stops the common cold from being as deadly as Covid is that our immune systems know how to deal with it. C

            • None of the common cold viruses attack a receptor that is expressed by practically every organ in your entire body. Except in "so rare it is not a considered factor" cases, none of them ever leave victims disabled after. There's no such thing as "long cold" or "long flu."

              I'm a healthy young man in excellent shape with a relatively fresh booster shot. My worry about the acute disease adds up to roughly "fuck I can't work out for a week." What worries me is the thought of waking up later unable to think or
              • There's no such thing as "long cold" or "long flu."

                The best thinking on long-covid seems to be that this is some sort of complex immune response. Long-covid victims have no detectable virus anywhere in them. The exact cause of long-covid has yet to be established but if it is an immune response error then again that would be consistent with why the vaccine seems to protect against it since it lets the immune system gain experience with the new virus before encountering it in the wild.

                Also, while delta does attack receptors primarily in the longs the evi

      • by hey! ( 33014 )

        Germany is buying plain vanilla Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for boosters. I think the story where you read that there were omicron specific boosters being purchased may be garbled. You need a booster of *existing* vaccines for those vaccines to be maximally effective against omicron. It's far too early for anyone to have an approved omicron-specific vaccine.

        • by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

          Yeah, the news was misleading, I checked, Germany have pre-ordered 80 million Omicron doses but they aren't available yet.

    • The problem is, if you go over the figures in the paper: Yes, infection by omicron does raise neutralizing antibodies against delta significantly... in vaccinated breakthrough cases, where it provides a 3rd round of maturation for their large stable of spike targetting B cells. In unvaccinated cases, it's the same misdirected immune response as before for the most part.

      There's a reason that there were three global (and several more regional) massive waves of infections driven by variants that were able t
    • Now everyone can get immunized by Omicron and we can put all this behind us like SARS/Swineflu/Birdflu/etc. It's been been going on way too long.

      Obligatory: https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

  • Well (Score:4, Informative)

    by cascadingstylesheet ( 140919 ) on Tuesday December 28, 2021 @11:43AM (#62122209) Journal
    That's one way to get everyone immunized.
    • People keep arguing against evolution seeking this outcome. The inevitable outcome seems to be something like seasonal flu but perhaps 2x the morality... It's likely unavoidable NOW... if it ever was. Like Jurassic Park says, Nature finds a way...not the capital letter. Also even Karl Marx talked about natural population checks... that's what we are faced with. We could quote countless one-liners from.movies that are virtually prophetic about the times we live in. Despite my love for most all people, we qui

      • something like seasonal flu but perhaps 2x the morality...

        I've seen threads on twitter blaming the vaccines for infidelity. Perhaps these effects cancel out.

        • I mean, given that covid causes erectile dysfunction in 15% of male victims (probably because of the microvascular damage the monstrosity does to the entire body), in a roundabout way I suppose it may lead to infidelity as people seek vaccinated dicks that still work.
  • Our current understanding that Spanish Flu epidemic ended when the virus mutated to be more transmissible but less dangerous, with the new variant displacing the old one and resulting in herd immunity. Hopefully similar outcome would be observed with COVID/Omicron.
  • The goal of a virus is to survive, spread, and replicate and so it tends to evolve toward being more infectious and less deadly.

    That's, hopefully, the exact pattern we are seeing with Omicron - a variant that infects the upper airways and seems to rarely target the lungs and one, which does seem to have symptoms akin to the common cold. The onset is rapid, but so is the recovery - and so is the infection rate.

    Exactly how a virus "knows" to evolve in this manner, is beyond my comprehension - perhaps someone

    • Exactly how a virus "knows" to evolve in this manner, is beyond my comprehension - perhaps someone with a great deal of knowledge could explain.

      I wouldn't claim to be a person with a great deal of knowledge, but I believe the essential point is that COVID has relied on binding affinity to the ACE2 receptor which is present in lung epithelial cells to spread effectively. These receptors are also present in intestinal, fat, and heart tissue, which relates to COVIDs overall deadliness (and how both COVID and vaccines can induce myocarditis).

      Delta had a higher binding affinity for this receptor, which is how it was able out outcompete the ancestral str

    • Each viral replication is an opportunity for a mistake (i.e. mutation) to happen. Most of those mutations are not beneficial. In fact, most will make the pathogen fail to function. Many will be fairly neutral; either giving a negligible advantage or disadvantage. In this case, "advantage" means "better adapted to find opportunities for replication, within this host organism and others". There is no advantage to higher lethality. We often view it as an "us vs the virus" with our deaths being considered losse

    • The goal of a virus is to survive, spread, and replicate and so it tends to evolve toward being more infectious and less deadly.

      This story is nice and simple. I think it is totally wrong. Some kind of simple view coming mostly from computer scientists and other tech people. I think we should try to find counter examples in the current set of old infectious diseases among human or animals before spreading this story. Or ask some kind of competent people, it should exist. Though, it is good hopium.

    • and so it tends to evolve toward being more infectious and less deadly.

      This is plain wrong. It may evolve to be less deadly but it may not. Take the bubonic plague, which repeatedly decimated (in the true sense of the world... death rates were often >10%) populations. It is still very deadly (according to wikipedia between 2010 and 2015, there were 3,248 documented cases, which resulted in 584 deaths), we just have figured out how to stop it from spreading through the population like it used to. Many other once-common diseases also remained deadly before modern medicine man

    • The goal of a virus is ...
      A virus has no goal.

      Exactly how a virus "knows" to evolve in this manner, is beyond my comprehension
      The virus knows nothing.
      Its mutation is purely random, based on what is around it (aka particles from other viruses) or already in his genome (aka copy errors, random flips).

  • To use a car analogy, since we're on slashdot... it's like saying a car could get to its destination if it has travelled 90% of the way already

  • What part of " ...only covered a small group of people and has not been peer-reviewed..." wasn't understood?

    This is for all intents and purposes misinformation. It was rushed to the public for every reason _except_ useful health information.

    To accept this as 'news' is to accept that there is no need for fact-checking.

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