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Science

Researcher Argues Data Paints 'Big Red Flashing Arrow' Toward Wuhan Market as Covid-19 Origin (cnn.com) 371

CNN reports on researcher Michael Worobey, "who specializes in tracing the genetic evolution of viruses," who has now found "considerable evidence that the virus arose in an animal, and did not start circulating until the end of 2019." One case especially stood out — that of a 41-year-old accountant who allegedly got sick on December 8, 2019 and who had no connection to the market. The case has been cited as evidence the pandemic must not have started at the market.

Worobey found records that showed the man didn't become ill with Covid-19 until later in December and that his December 8 problem was related to his teeth.

"This is corroborated by hospital records and a scientific paper that reports his COVID-19 onset date as 16 December and date of hospitalization as 22 December," Worobey wrote in a commentary in the journal Science. That would make a seafood vendor who worked at the market and who got sick December 11, 2019, the earliest documented case, Worobey said.

Other research helped Worobey come up with a map of the earliest cases that clusters them all around the market. "That so many of the more than 100 COVID-19 cases from December with no identified epidemiologic link to Huanan Market nonetheless lived in its direct vicinity is notable and provides compelling evidence that community transmission started at the market," he wrote. "It tells us that there's a big red flashing arrow pointing at Huanan Market as the most likely place that the pandemic started," Worobey told CNN. "The virus didn't come from some other part of Wuhan and then get to Huanan market. The evidence speaks really quite strongly to the virus starting at the market and then leaking into the neighborhoods around the market...."

The journal Science subjected Worobey's research to outside scrutiny before publishing it.

Interestingly, Science also published a letter in May in which Worobey had joined 17 other scientists to urge the investigation of both the "natural origin" and "lab leak" theories. But now while he still believes the Chinese government should've investigated the lab leak theory, "holy smokes — is there a lot of evidence against it, and in favor of natural origin," Worobey tells CNN. And he's now telling the Los Angeles Times that his new research "takes the lab-leak idea almost completely off the table.... So many of the early cases were tied to this one Home Depot-sized building in a city of 11 million people, when there are thousands of other places where it would be more likely for early cases to be linked to if the virus had not started there."

Or, as he explained his research to the Washington Post, "It becomes almost impossible to explain that pattern if that epidemic didn't start there."

A virologist at Texas A&M University who was one of the coronavirus experts giving SARS-CoV-2 its name called Worobey's research "detailed and compelling," while a virologist at Tulane University also tells the Post the new research "shows beyond a shadow of a doubt that in fact the Huanan market was the epicenter of the outbreak."
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Researcher Argues Data Paints 'Big Red Flashing Arrow' Toward Wuhan Market as Covid-19 Origin

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  • Reasoning (Score:5, Informative)

    by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Saturday November 20, 2021 @09:43PM (#62006245) Journal

    This image shows his reasoning [science.org].

    He argues that since most of the early (known) cases clustered around the market, the natural conclusion is that the virus started at the market.

    • by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Saturday November 20, 2021 @09:49PM (#62006269) Journal

      tbh I think the xkcd heatmap principle might apply here [xkcd.com]. That is, the areas that had the most early cases were also the most densely populated.

      • All I want to know is how it got into European sewer samples before it started spreading in China, according to the official stories.

        • Those seem to have turned out to be false positives.

          • Nope, they are not.

            Thy analyzed old sewage water - seems they take probes and conserve them - just in case.
            And they analyzed blood from patience, which was stored, when they remembered "strange symptoms" like allergic reactions on the skin, on previous patients.

            It is not unlikely that some Europeans got infected at some strange place and brought it to Wuhan. (Wuhan is a tourist attraction for Spanish and Italians, no idea why. I believe it is close the nine gorges dams)

        • by denzacar ( 181829 ) on Sunday November 21, 2021 @04:10AM (#62006787) Journal

          Studies such as this one [medrxiv.org] using WHO prescribed parameters such as this [who.int] to detect protein sequences such as ATGAGCTTAGTCCTGTTG or CTGGTCAAGGTTAATATAGG... fail to take in account that such short sequences can be found elsewhere in nature. [digital.csic.es]

          I.e. "Samples" you talk of are just fragments of a very common enzyme. [wikipedia.org]

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          Because it didn't.

          There were some false positives that got blown up by the CCP as "proof" COVID-19 originated outside of China.

          More CCP lies and obfuscation.

          Make no mistake, the CCP is acting almost *exactly* like someone with a VERY guilty conscience desperate to cover up their part in all this.

          • Re: Reasoning (Score:2, Interesting)

            by St.Creed ( 853824 )

            They responded with that theory after Trump began saying it was all China's fault. They agreed that you didn't need evidence before spouting stupid ideas and cooperated by spouting some of their own. That quelled a PR issue at home. Mission accomplished.

            Basically Trumps own playbook, and just like most of his inane ideas intended for local consumption. They knew just as well as Trump did that outside their own fanbase nobody would take it very serious (*). But that was enough for them.

            (*) serious enough th

    • by raymorris ( 2726007 ) on Saturday November 20, 2021 @11:38PM (#62006455) Journal

      The data (still) shows what we've known for a long time - the virus spread at the busy market.

      We also know from life experience that people screw up. People fail to follow proper procedures, all the damn time. For example probably half the people reading this re-use the same password on dozens of sites. Because people don't follow best practice.

      We know the initial "super spreader" location, where people were densely packed together spreading the virus, was at the Wuhan market.

      What that map can't tell us, and what we'll probably never know, is how it GOT to the Wuhan market. Did someone from the Wuhan lab go to the market after failing to spend a full two minutes scrubbing under their fingernails before leaving work? Did a bat get taken to the market, and that bat got infected before that? We don't know and probably never will.

      The regulations around smallpox samples is super strict, about the strictest regulations of anything. There are only two labs in the world authorized to store smallpox samples. Just the other day, some forgotten vials of smallpox were discovered in an unused freezer by a cleaning person in a lab that isn't even supposed to have smallpox vials. Not only did they have them without authorization, the people running the lab didn't even know where they were. So yeah, these people screw up. Just like the rest of us do.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        I know someone who worked in the UK's failed Test & Trace system, calling people to tell them that they were near someone who was infected and needed to isolate. She was made a supervisor after 2 weeks and gave it up after a couple of months, which is longer than most people managed.

        When calling people with the bad news their usual reaction was anger and resentment. Not surprising, in the UK if you are forced to self isolate you only get paltry sick pay and a lot of people can't survive on that.

        I heard

        • Not surprising, in the UK if you are forced to self isolate you only get paltry sick pay and a lot of people can't survive on that.

          Wow, something at which the US is doing better than the UK. If you lost your job due to covid you still only get payments which are slim compared to your paycheck. But if you are told to isolate by a medical professional you can get some time off paid. It does depend on the size of your employer though I think.

        • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

          I heard China did better, bringing people shopping while they isolated, but as they don't have a welfare system as such I can imagine a lot of people were unhappy about not being able to work.
          China is a communist country. Obviously they have a welfare system.

      • by Enigma2175 ( 179646 ) on Sunday November 21, 2021 @10:43AM (#62007501) Homepage Journal

        Just the other day, some forgotten vials of smallpox were discovered in an unused freezer by a cleaning person in a lab that isn't even supposed to have smallpox vials. Not only did they have them without authorization, the people running the lab didn't even know where they were. So yeah, these people screw up. Just like the rest of us do.

        No, some vials labeled smallpox were found recently. However, they did not contain smallpox [cdc.gov]. Still a screwup, but not a "possibly cause a pandemic" screwup.

      • by kbahey ( 102895 )

        We know the initial "super spreader" location, where people were densely packed together spreading the virus, was at the Wuhan market.

        What that map can't tell us, and what we'll probably never know, is how it GOT to the Wuhan market. Did someone from the Wuhan lab go to the market after failing to spend a full two minutes scrubbing under their fingernails before leaving work? Did a bat get taken to the market, and that bat got infected before that? We don't know and probably never will.

        We know more that wha

    • So, does that mean the virus actually was spawned in the market? Or was it in an animal that was transported there?

    • The market is the place where the virus spread from humans to humans.
      Not where it originated.

      It makes no sense. What animal on the market would be the cause? And how would it infect hundreds if not thousands of people? Every infected hold that animal in his hands and infected himself, but did not buy and eat it? So it could infect more people?

      The current hypothesis is: the origin are bats. There are no bats on the market.

      The idea that it _originated_ on the market is only plausible if you never really thoug

  • by takochan ( 470955 ) on Saturday November 20, 2021 @10:02PM (#62006301)

    A long article, but backed by actual research from an MIT fellow, and very very good.

    TLDR, it leaked from the lab, there is no doubt about it.. the article explains how they could conclusively arrive at this result

    https://nymag.com/intelligence... [nymag.com]

    • by takochan ( 470955 ) on Saturday November 20, 2021 @10:47PM (#62006379)

      Wow, scored to 0 in no time. The 50 cent army is out in force tonight!

      Long live emperor pooh!

      • by NFN_NLN ( 633283 )

        “War is Peace / Freedom is Slavery / Truth is Trolling” - slashdot motto

        • “War is Peace / Freedom is Slavery / Truth is Trolling” - slashdot motto

          Can't be right, there are too many slashes and not enough dots in that.

      • The poor guy got a 'Troll' for pointing to a competing theory.

        The smoothbrains have such cognitive dissonance that they believe they are "On The Side of Science" by suppressing competing views.

        They're repeating the patterns of the Dark Ages and praising themselves for being virtuous for doing so.

        Our culture is really still in its late childhood. Perhaps a small part is entering early adolescence. The regressive element is rather unfortunate.

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          "... it leaked from the lab, there is no doubt about it" isn't pointing out a competing theory.

        • It's funny, I used to think that only independent, rational thinkers existed on the left. Now I see more of the cognitive dissonance you describe. People are so high on their own supply of righteousness that they refuse to see they have become anti-intellectual zealots.
    • This is a quite reasonable and well researched article for anyone who's interested. I'd mod this up.

    • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

      by theskipper ( 461997 )

      That was an excellent article. Mod up.

    • by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Sunday November 21, 2021 @01:42AM (#62006607) Journal

      I read the article, and I don't see the part where it is conclusive. In fact, the article says the opposite, here's the quote:

      "a lab origin can’t be conclusively ruled out and a natural origin can’t be ruled out either — because nature, after all, is capable of improbable, teleological-seeming achievements"

      • You "science" guys seem to have forgotten that incredible is the opposite of credible.

        In a court of law, if the judge finds your testimony incredible it means that he did not believe you, that your tale is untrue on the face of it.

        In science, the principle is more commonly known as Occams Razor, but the idea was never meant to even be applied to incredible coincidences that spin yarn of quintillion-to-1 shots.
        • You "science" guys seem to have forgotten that incredible is the opposite of credible.

          OK, maybe you should learn some science. It works.

  • by Beryllium Sphere(tm) ( 193358 ) on Saturday November 20, 2021 @10:13PM (#62006321) Journal

    It seems to be good work but it can't be any better than the inputs.

    Quote from the Washington Post article about this paper:
    (quote begins)
    Jesse Bloom, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, said the quality of the data from China on early coronavirus infections is too poor to support any conclusion.

    âoeI donâ(TM)t feel like anything can be concluded with high or even really modest confidence about the exact origin of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, simply because the underlying data are so limited,â Bloom said. He contends that genetic evidence from early virus samples points to the market as a superspreader event, but not as the location of the first set of infections.
    (quote ends)

    The other things that don't fit the hypothesis of December at the Huanan Market are the positive antibody results from blood samples in Italy in September and the virus detection in wastewater in (IIRC) Milan and Turin. The antibody results have been questioned since they weren't done by people with the relevant specialty but that leaves the wastewater samples from December: https://www.reuters.com/articl... [reuters.com]

    At this point the only outcome that would surprise me is if we actually find out what the origin was.

  • by Lost Penguin ( 636359 ) on Saturday November 20, 2021 @10:15PM (#62006325)
    My question; what is the timing of Trump firing the CDC pandemic teams, with this outbreak?

    Tell me he didn't possibly fire the pandemic teams, then release the virus.

    Hmm, yes, he eliminated the entire office of pandemic preparedness, that included the pandemic response teams; right before the virus hit America.
    • maybe he fired them for fucking up in some way, but wouldn't/couldn't disclose this fuckup to the public? I don't know, are there are any legal restrictions on what a President can tell us?

      • maybe he fired them for fucking up in some way, but wouldn't/couldn't disclose this fuckup to the public? I don't know, are there are any legal restrictions on what a President can tell us?

        Because Trump's all about following Presidential norms...

  • ..it's that we're lied to over, and over, and over in pursuit of the interests in a position to do the lying to us.

    I can't remember a conflict in my lifetime that was not preceded by this sort of narrative against the future enemy.

    There's always an expert willing to agree with the narrative if there is enough money in it.

    • Which makes me leery of any narrative.

      It's enough to present the data and answer any questions that arise. Maybe point out contradictions.

      When anyone presumes to do my thinking for me, I have to wonder who the man behind the curtain is.

      We are in an age of mythos.

  • by Krishnoid ( 984597 ) on Saturday November 20, 2021 @10:44PM (#62006373) Journal
    Knowing where it came from isn't going to help when the next virus with this pattern of spread shows up. How much does its origin story really matter, as long as it's airborne and now a global pandemic, when we have a vaccine for it but can't get people to take it?
    • A big part of what the researcher discusses is how China had developed a mechanism for detecting "Viral Pneumonia of Unknown Etiology" (VPUE) after the previous SARS outbreak, pointing out that it only partially succeeded here (mostly failed), and he is trying to start a conversation on how to improve that system in China and elsewhere in the world.

      Although a widely cited report (7) credits the VPUE mechanism with uncovering the pandemic, it was HPHICWM that identified both the outbreak and the Huanan Market connection and passed on these fully formed discoveries to district, municipal, and provincial public health officials by 29 December (9). National officials reportedly did not learn about the outbreak until CCDC Director George Gao encountered online group chats about the WHC emergency notices on the evening of 30 December. Concerned that so many cases had not been reported to the VPUE system, he quickly notified the National Health Commission (14) (see fig. S1).

      and

      Although mechanisms like China’s VPUE system are potentially invaluable, they will fail without both widespread buy-in from health care providers and rapid data sharing from local to central authorities. Key problems with the VPUE system were known before the pandemic, including that most clinicians in China had little awareness of the VPUE system and were not reporting cases to it—for example, 0 of 335 PUE cases in one study from 2019 (5). China should be commended, however, for having such a system, which is lacking in most countries. The focus now should be on fixing the problems that COVID-19 has exposed and blanketing the globe with a highly functional PUE early warning system.

      So, irrespective of whether a contaminated researcher from the virology institute wandered into the market, or the contamination came from live animals within

      • It's definitely interesting, detailed epidemiological information, but useful [bbc.com]? I mean, maybe if you're partially simian and want to know how monkeys spread viruses ... ok, got it.

        I never thought I'd say this, but I'd really like more in-depth marketing research on how to convince a critical mass of people to take a vaccine -- assuming it's available and effective.

    • How much does its origin story really matter,

      The origin story matters for a few reasons:
      a) Does a virology institute need to be sanctioned for failing to take precautions?
      b) Do wet markets needs to be closed due to the hazard they face?
      c) Does Trump get to make a claim that The Jhina virus is not his fault and the blood of Americans is not on his hands?

      (Note that last one is an obvious joke for everyone except a republican.)

  • When looking at coronaviruses from the Wuhan area there appears no possible ancestors for Covid. Which is a huge pointer to⦠it wuz humans dat dun it.
  • Missing Researcher Argued Data Painted 'Big Red Flashing Arrow' Toward Wuhan Market as Covid-19
  • by Martin S. ( 98249 ) on Sunday November 21, 2021 @03:56AM (#62006759) Journal

    Occam's razor agrees, the simplest answer is typically the most appropriate, COVID jumped species at the market.
    Hanlon's razor says the stupidity of the deplorables is far more likely that chinese malice.

  • I thought the earliest cases were traced back to October.

  • So we know where it comes from. That helps us in fighting this disease... how exactly?

    It's like in companies that first of all want to find out who to blame and punish, while ignoring that fixing the problem should be the primary concern. Once we got that covered, there's still plenty of time for finger pointing. Else I have someone who I can behead for the problem, but the problem still continues.

    But at least we got someone for the daily 10 minute hate session.

  • the Chinese had let the UN do a proper investigation in the first place.
  • You mean, it didn't originate from the outer space carried to earth by an asteroid, and then went to the sewage from Italy, then carried to China by US military in the Wuhan military games?!?! Mind blown.

    see, I've got citations!
    https://www.discovermagazine.c... [discovermagazine.com]
    https://www.wired.com/story/fl... [wired.com]
    https://www.military.com/daily... [military.com]
    https://www.sciencetimes.com/a... [sciencetimes.com]

  • by BeerMilkshake ( 699747 ) on Sunday November 21, 2021 @11:00AM (#62007535)

    1 Peter 5:8 "Be sober, be vigilant; because your adversary the devil, as a roaring lion, walketh about, seeking whom he may devour." King James Version

    Where there is motive and opportunity, there will be trouble.

    Various people from various organizations have a strong motive to rewrite recent history. They have an opportunity due to the positive-feedback loop of fear and control going on between leadership and mass-media.

    Science never stops. The origin will be questioned. The research methods, data and papers will be questioned. The formula provided to the world for making the vaccines will be questioned. The companies and products their products will be questioned.

    Science will take years. Meanwhile the world is on fire while we kick one another in the guts over public control measures that don't seem to help, in fact are tearing society apart.

  • Why even read any of such articles/papers? At this point, this whole thing is so politicized that no one is going to go at it unbiased, and even if so, will not be able to get access to data.

  • That would make a seafood vendor who worked at the market and who got sick December 11, 2019, the earliest documented case, Worobey said.
    The earliest documented cases are in October/November in north Italy - And we have evidence it was in Europe already in September 2019

    No idea what that researcher is researching if he is not even able to read a newspaper.

    It is in German, but you can pipe it through translate.google.com or google for english texts: That would make a seafood vendor who worked at the market a

  • by mveloso ( 325617 ) on Sunday November 21, 2021 @03:44PM (#62008113)

    Every event in this world is made up of an unlikely combination of low-probability events. Occam's razor assumes that you can sort low-probability events into some kind of likely order...but that likely order is just as unlikely as any other order unless human decision making is involved.

    Humans will generally do the simplest things. Natural phenomena will do their own thing, and are not necessarily bound by probabilities.

Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes, and not rather a new wearer of clothes. -- Henry David Thoreau

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