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Earth Science

Nobel Prize in Physics Awarded To Scientists Whose Work Helps Predict Global Warming (washingtonpost.com) 103

The Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded half of the Nobel Prize in physics jointly to Syukuro Manabe of the United States and Klaus Hasselmann of Germany for modeling Earth's climate and predicting global warming. From a report: Giorgio Parisi of Italy won the other half of the prize for describing fluctuating physical systems on scales from atoms to planets. The three scientists were honored "for groundbreaking contributions to our understanding of complex physical systems," Goran K. Hansson, secretary general Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, told reporters in Stockholm.
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Nobel Prize in Physics Awarded To Scientists Whose Work Helps Predict Global Warming

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  • We're going to see lots of angry slashdot conservatives commenting soon here about how this is politically biased against them and how certain they are that global warming is a hoax. Will this article set a new 2021 record for most comments?
    • Re: (Score:1, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      So far, you're the only person that has said any of that (not any conservative), so maybe you might want to examine your *own* prejudices and beliefs WRT to what and how others think?
      • by Anonymous Coward

        These folks simply can't help themselves by inserting politics into every aspect of their daily lives. Can't imagine what it would be like to live with someone like that, regardless of their political leanings.

      • by MobileTatsu-NJG ( 946591 ) on Tuesday October 05, 2021 @10:35AM (#61863193)

        So far, you're the only person that has said any of that (not any conservative), so maybe you might want to examine your *own* prejudices and beliefs WRT to what and how others think?

        Or maybe people within a group that has earned a bad reputation should stand up to the bad apples instead of blaming the rest of the world for how they're viewed.

    • by BAReFO0t ( 6240524 ) on Tuesday October 05, 2021 @06:25AM (#61862573)

      All I'm seeing is the usual: People *SEEING* angry ideologists. Even when, like in your case, there literally were no other comments!
      But hey, I wrote a comment below. So now you can "SEE" an angry ideologist in it. Even if it's literally the opposite of that. But hey, I don't wanna ruin your fun! ;-)

      • by DRJlaw ( 946416 )

        But hey, I wrote a comment below. So now you can "SEE" an angry ideologist in it. Even if it's literally the opposite of that. But hey, I don't wanna ruin your fun! ;-)

        You didn't. [slashdot.org]

        Because there was no question that they were coming, even if you want to pretend that it was somehow in doubt.

      • Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • by DRJlaw ( 946416 )

        Repost: So now we're going to downmod every post that points out that the original poster was correct? Man you guys are cowards, in addition to to being wrong.

        But hey, I wrote a comment below. So now you can "SEE" an angry ideologist in it. Even if it's literally the opposite of that. But hey, I don't wanna ruin your fun! ;-)

        You didn't. [slashdot.org]

        Because there was no question that they were coming, even if you want to pretend that it was somehow in doubt.

    • Re: (Score:1, Insightful)

      Did you just invent an idea in your own mind? And then project that idea on others? And then criticize The Other for what you invented in your own mind? Seriously? This passes for political discourse?

      Remember when the lobotomy, the worst surgery in history, won Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine in 1949 for the "discovery of the therapeutic value of lobotomy in certain psychoses"? [youtu.be]

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • We're going to see lots of angry slashdot conservatives

      Not until this article is posted at least one more time.

    • by dimko ( 1166489 )
      No, but what, I, as classic liberal, shall bitch about - how precise are his predictions/models? Is it 5 sigma? Cause if not, GTFO, shit is political.
      • No, but what, I, as classic liberal, shall bitch about - how precise are his predictions/models?
        Is it 5 sigma? Cause if not, GTFO, shit is political.

        Whose predictions?

        Are you talking about Manabe? (remember? The guy who just got the Nobel prize that we're discussing?)

        If you take his 1967 value for climate sensitivity (change in temperature as a function of carbon dioxide) and insert 2020's measured carbon dioxide value, Manabe and Wetherald 1967's model says you would expect 2020 temperature to average 0.82 C higher than 1966 temperatures. Fitting the GISS temperature data to a trendline gives 0.93 C above 1966. Pretty good, considering the Manabe and

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Considering that no model has been 100% accurate, mostly because, like weather, its impossible to be that accurate, why give them a Nobel prize? I would be pissed if my weatherman got an award for predicting weather. Unless its a forecast 3 hrs in the future, its usually wrong more than its right. Maybe the prize should go to people coming up with some long term capture. Co2 to nanotubes or something.
      • why give them a Nobel prize?

        Because the prize was given for their developments to
        simulation theory. Climate modelling was just an example.

    • by shanen ( 462549 )

      Not much activity on the story so far. I think you've misjudged today's conservatives.

      They don't know or care what this Nobel Prize thing is about, even though they do like dynamite.

  • Even as an armchair/enthusiast geologist, it can be a bit frustrating to use some of our existing climate models, which produce wildly different predictions by design. I am speaking of the "what-if" climate models: what if we continue on with climate policy X, then what might happen? How about we assume policy Y?

    Are these models useful? Well ... it depends on what you're trying to do. If what you're trying to do is predict where to best spend policy money, sure. But if what you want to understand is how a d

    • by jd ( 1658 )

      The problem is that there is a feedback loop (humans) that is probabilistic and variable per region rather than mechanical, that is based on both political and economic climates. There is no obviously easy solution to this other than to try every probable permutation and map the different outcomes.

      • Most are based on inputs from CO2 emissions scenarios like RCP8.5. They can never be exact because humans can change behaviour. But then if someone says "hit the brakes else you'll drive over a cliff" and you do, and don't hit it, the correct responses are to be happy you are safe and thank the person who warned you, not complain about the cost of new tyres and drive over the cliff instead. Yes, I found a car analogy.
        • by jd ( 1658 )

          Absolutely correct, although as with Y2K, typically they'll then complain that 100% of those who hit the brakes never drove over any cliffs. Still, that's no reason not to shout warnings when they're needed.

  • by Anonymous Coward

    The Nobel Prize website has the public press release [nobelprize.org] and the actual scientific background [nobelprize.org] (PDF) for those who want to know more than generic explaining-science-to-uninformed-readers news reports.

    -JS

  • Neither the title, the summary, nor even the linked article, describe how the theoretical predictions actually came true. These elderly scientists have been working in their fields for 50-60 years. For Manabe to win the award now, 50-60 years ago his model must have made several clear, defined predictions which we have seen come true, while not making clear, defined predictions which did not come true. That's the "money shot" of any theoretical model -- when it makes predictions about observable systems the

    • Surely they didn't give out Nobel prizes these days simply for making predictions?

      They gave one to Obama for less

      • by habig ( 12787 )

        They gave one to Obama for less

        Different people. The "peace" prize (who have such a great track record that one of the most recent winners is busy trying to commit genocide in Ethiopia) is a different batch of people from a whole different country (Norway), compared to the "real" Nobel prizes in sciency fields in Sweden.

      • They gave Trump a Time Magazine cover for the cost of a Photoshop license.

    • by Anonymous Coward

      Yet the /. summary and linked article don't take the simple step of mentioning what is the most important part of the science - the confirmation part.

      I count three times their models were confirmed and I just quickly skimmed the article. Also, there work is the foundation for most other models, plenty of which have been confirmed.

      • Yet the /. summary and linked article don't take the simple step of mentioning what is the most important part of the science - the confirmation part.

        I count three times their models were confirmed and I just quickly skimmed the article. Also, there work is the foundation for most other models, plenty of which have been confirmed.

        The article does not point those out. There is nothing where it says something like, "Manabe's model in 1975 predicted that XYZ conditions would exist in 2015, and we saw XYZ conditions come to pass a couple years ago."

        For example, the article cites this as the crucial part of Manabe's work:

        The work led to a crucial finding: “If you double the carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere, the surface temperature would increase by two degrees Celsius,” said Yale University physicist John Wettlaufer.

        It does not actually tell us how the Prediction-Confirmation circuit was closed; something like: "This crucial finding was reached in 1975. By 2015 the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere had doubled, and the surface temper

  • by magzteel ( 5013587 ) on Tuesday October 05, 2021 @09:49AM (#61863057)

    The OP posted a link to a Washington Post article.

    If you can't read it here's a free link to a Wall Street Journal article:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/n... [wsj.com]

  • More politicization of the Nobel Prize. Of course, all Nobels are political at least within their field, with some actively campaigning and lobbying. But this one is going to sully the Nobels even further, even if it is deserved.

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      Alfred Nobel made a huge fortune in armaments. When a newspaper mistakenly printed his obituary, he was shocked by what he read. So he made plans in his will to set up annual awards for people contributing to peace and other pursuits which "conferred the greatest benefit to humankind."

      The Nobel Prize was political from before its start.

  • If 1000s (or more) of climate predictions are made, one will be the closes, even randomly...
    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      That's not how it works. You start with assumptions, like how much carbon humans will put into atmosphere, and for every set of assumptions you generate *thousands* of predictions, arriving at a statistical distribution.

      To evaluate the accuracy of those models, you don't pick the model that most closely resembles what actually happened; you choose the model whose assumptions most closely resemble what people have actually done and see whether what happens falls with within the confidence intervals of that

  • Proof fundamental physics research has stagnated in conjunction with modern academia.

A right is not what someone gives you; it's what no one can take from you. -- Ramsey Clark

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