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Science

Newly-Published Evidence Undermines China Lab-Leak Theory (yahoo.com) 442

In 1999 Los Angeles Times reporter Michael Hiltzik won a Pulitzer Prize. Now a business columnist for the Times, he writes that "new evidence undermines the COVID lab-leak theory — but the press keeps pushing it." A paper posted online [in September] chiefly by researchers at France's Institut Pasteur and under consideration for publication in a Nature journal...reports that three viruses were found in bats living in caves in northern Laos with features very similar to SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19. As Nature reported, those viruses are "more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than any known viruses."

Another paper, posted in late August by researchers from the Wuhan lab, reports on viruses found in rats also with features similar to those that make SARS-CoV-2 infectious in humans.

Two other papers published on the discussion forum virological.org present evidence that the virus jumped from animals to humans at more than one animal market in Wuhan, not just the Huanan seafood market. Given that these so-called wet markets have long been suspected as transmission points of viruses from animals to humans because they sell potentially infected animals, that makes the laboratory origin vastly less likely, according to a co-author of one of the papers. "That a laboratory leak would find its way to the very place where you would expect to find a zoonotic transmission is quite unlikely," Joel Wertheim, an associate professor at UC San Diego's medical school, told me. "To have it find its way to multiple markets, the exact place where you would expect to see the introduction, is unbelievably unlikely."

As virologist Robert F. Garry of Tulane, one of Wertheim's co-authors, told Nature, the finding is "a dagger into the heart" of the lab-leak hypothesis.

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Newly-Published Evidence Undermines China Lab-Leak Theory

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  • Doesn't that suppose the people pushing this conspiracy have hearts to begin with...

  • Regardless (Score:4, Insightful)

    by XanC ( 644172 ) on Sunday October 03, 2021 @12:14AM (#61855243)

    Whether this virus came from a wet market or from gain-of-function research in a lab, how about we shut both down?

    • Did you know in Shanghai, Prada just partnered with a wet market. Buy your bats and handbags together.

      The gist is, wet markets aren't going away in China.

      • The gist is, wet markets aren't going away in China.

        China doesn't need to shut down the wet markets, just ban the selling of exotic animals.

        Eating bats, civet cats, and tiger penises causes diseases to spread and pushes endangered species closer to extinction.

        • I agree with this and they are getting better. The problem would be black markets. With "medicinal" a lot of that is TCM folklore and it's hard to stop the demand but efforts are being made. With eating odd species, the South loves this shit like eating dog which I assume is a significant disease vector. This is a bit harder to stop. Likewise with live animals which I think is the greatest factor. Chinese love fresh food in the sense of just slaughtered - very common with seafood and poultry. All these fact

        • Most of what is sold isn't poached; it doesn't need to be. Wuhan is the centre of a vast empire of factory farming of exotic wildlife. Anything that can be made to breed in captivity and has some reputed value in traditional medicine is crammed into filthy cages and exploited to the maximum possible extent. Local government gets quite a lot of funding from this, and the conservation authorities are completely corrupt and complicit, having supported the development of these farms as a sort of "alternative" t

        • They weren't eating bats in Wuhan. This is an imaginary tale the CCP fed dupes.

          • What a bunch of horseshit. The Chinese did everything they could to move attention away from the wet markets.
            The Leninist shitheads over in China are definitely a top-notch pile of human fucking filth, but how sad do you have to be to feel so threatened by them that you have to slander them? As if there weren't more than enough true information that could be used to shit on their heads.

            You're fucking pathetic.
        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          Chinese don't eat bats.
          If at all some bats _live_ in the wet market.

          While the disease spread in _two_ wet markets, chances are: they are 99% not from an animal that was sold there. after all: it is a virus from bats. So: it is nearly 100% sure the virus came from a few 100km away - from people visiting bat caves, and for some reason they slowly, probably over half a year or a full year they started the infection

          And that is pretty clear since day one. Day one the day when we learned about the outbreak.

          There

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      You want to shut down the scientists doing research into the thing you are afraid of?

    • Yeah, let's never study viruses again and never be prepared.
    • Once we shutdown the wet markets in the U.S., we can start calling for China to shut them down too.

      Many American grocery stores operate wet markets.

  • A dagger into the heart of the lab leak theory would be if they found the wild animal reservoir mamal species harboring SARS-CoV-2 (or something only a few mutations away from SARS-CoV-2... 96 percent similar is not actually all that closely related).

    I think the alternate theory, that somehow SARS-CoV-2 is linked to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, that will remain a viable theory until and unless a wild animal reservoir is found in a species sold at the wet markets.

    The idea that Chinese officials would cov

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      The idea that Chinese officials would cover up a lab leak and lie about it is, unfortunately, plausible.

      True, but that doesn't mean it happened. Occam's razor is the wet market.

      • You think that a 4% mutation in a virus, to make it almost perfect adapt to humans with no sign of intermediate stages, that naturally occurs in a whole different country, suddenly appearing in Wuhan is MORE simple than someone mistakenly leaking the virus from a lab that has an established record of virus leaks?

        Interesting...

        • I think a 4% mutation means that they are totally different viruses. The virus that gave rise to SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been found in the wild, as far as I know. Closest known viruses are not that close.

          • The virus that gave rise to SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been found in the wild

            Many viruses haven't been found in the wild. The wild is a hard place to look, in case you didn't know.

          • I think a 4% mutation means that they are totally different viruses.

            This is a meaningless statement. Of course they're totally different viruses. But they share a recent common ancestor.

            The virus that gave rise to SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been found in the wild, as far as I know.

            Nor will it ever be if SARS-CoV-1 is any indication.
            Coronaviruses move quick, and there's no reason whatsoever to think that hops through the last few hosts survived.

            Closest known viruses are not that close.

            Quit saying this. Yes they are.

        • Interesting...

          It is interesting. The high mutation jump you list is one of the great paradoxes of evolution theory, that we rarely find intermediary stages of evolution in the wild.

          Here's two questions which should lead you to the correct conclusion:
          How many distinct variants of COVID are out there, vs how many are actually tracking through the population? If your answer is thousands, and tens respectively you may see where I'm going with this:
          Follow up question: have you sampled all the bats of China?

          • You don't find intermediary stages often because fossils are a snapshot in time locked in a drawer in a dark room at the bottom of a set of slippery stairs behind a door with a sign saying "beware of geologically unstable events".

            • You don't find intermediary stages often because fossils are a snapshot in time locked in a drawer in a dark room at the bottom of a set of slippery stairs behind a door with a sign saying "beware of geologically unstable events".

              That may be part of it, but basic statistics would suggest that's not the real reason.
              Even if your sample only retrieves 1% of all samples, as long as the distribution is random, it's representative.

      • Not saying it happened. Personally, I don't feel that Occam's razor is applicable here. Some of the earliest confirmed cases have no tie to the wet market (according to epidemiological report that came out very early on from China). So a non wet-market origin theory has to be entertained.

    • This would be true except... I'm sure the CPP would be happy to try and infect a bat colony, just to take the heat off themselves.

    • by sinij ( 911942 )

      96 percent similar is not actually all that closely related).

      Clearly, this research was published by chimps [genome.gov], who are 99% genetically similar to humans.

    • 96 percent similar is not actually all that closely related

      Depends on your definition of "all that closely related"
      The scientific consensus is that it is in fact, "all that closely related"
      It's not it's brother or anything, but it's considered a definite progenitor. It's about as close as we got to SARS-CoV-1 as well, and it was considered the original source by the scientific community.

      So let's look at the 2 hypotheses.
      1) Natural origin, same route as SARS-CoV-1: Bats from somewhere around Yunnan or Laos have a disease that bounces through a few hosts, and en

  • From the French article cited

    "Despite the absence of the furin cleavage site, these viruses may have contributed to SARS-CoV-2’s origin
    and may intrinsically pose a future risk of direct transmission to humans."

    The "lab leak" theory clearly denotes the Wuhan scientists took Covid which could eventually harm humans, added in gain of function via the furin cleavage site they inserted, and oops it got out.

    So far, the French scientists key discovery showcased to the world is ... yes Covid could have eventu

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 ) on Sunday October 03, 2021 @01:24AM (#61855329) Journal

      What it doesn't prove is who/what inserted the dangerous bits at the furin cleavage site (that's also not present in any natural viruses the scientist community have studied so far).

      This says otherwise:

      Such a polybasic furin cleavage site is found in various proteins from many viruses, including Betacoronavirus Embecoviruses, and the Merbecovirus. However, within the betacoronaviruses of the sarbecovirus lineage B, this type of site is unique to SARS-CoV-2.

      https://www.news-medical.net/n... [news-medical.net]

  • It is wrong to expect infinite compensation from China over this. Otherwise Europeans would have to compensate Africa and Asia for all the crap they did in the 17th, 18th, and 19th centuries.
    Why should all of China have to pay for the fuck up of a few people? Pretty sure 99.999% of China is not responsible for any of this so why should they have to pay?

    • You're right that expecting compensation from the Chinese is unrealistic. However what we KNOW is that the Chinese refused to provide the data that would have enabled the lab leak hypothesis to be established, and bullied the WHO into being dishonest about their investigation's report. This behaviour continues despite Western media overwhelming the attempts to cover up.

      Sadly we are back in a 'Cold War' situation; those who fantasise otherwise are merely failing, as so many of their predecessors in the Cold

    • I agree that it would be unreasonable to expect compensation or reparation from China, even if the virus really did escape from a lab (and so far we don't know where it came from). However, if it DID escape from a lab in China, cooperation with the rest of the scientific community would be beneficial for the whole world.

    • I mean, you're right, but the point is tell that to the CCP. The entire investigation was not to sit there and "blame China for everything and take everything they own and bankrupt the whole place." It was to investigate where the virus began, and see if there was a way to prevent such an occurrence from happening again. Sound and logical. That the CCP has refused any and all cooperation in regards to checking if a plausible sounding hypothesis has any validity because it could harm them in some way is the
    • Why should China have to pay? Because they are upholding a useless regime that funds this crap. Sure they won't pay, but we could sanction the fuck out of them, for that and other crimes.

  • The fact is, whatever happened that led to this particular variant of corona virus entering the human population will never be known, because it happened in the past and there are no direct witnesses. Everything else is just lines of investigation and guesses. I doubt the actual truth of the matter will ever be known.
  • by countach ( 534280 ) on Sunday October 03, 2021 @05:14AM (#61855559)

    Laos is like 1500km from Wuhan. There is no way that people are going into caves in Laos, capturing bats so they can ship them 1500km to Wuhan to make soup. Now it may well be that bat lady, Wuhan lab researcher got bats from Laos, and this is somehow related to COVID-19, but make no mistake, this thing escaped from Wuhan lab.

    • There are those who believe this virus made the jump to humans multiple times. I don't know anything about Laos. But it very well could be that there have been small outbreaks in Wuhan for years. Historically it could have been animal-to-human, people get sick, but no pandemic. Then, at some point, the human-infecting version jumps back to an animal becomes more virulent and jumps to humans again. Now we have a pandemic version. The Chinese government clearly knew about the wet markets and the health
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by BAReFO0t ( 6240524 )

      Yeah, and there is "no way" that people are "going to" Africa, to harvest bananas, so people *on another continent* can eat them!

      [That's the problem with discussions with the common livestock on the street: Their entire reality is based on what they want to believe, since they hardly ever made any observations for themselves in all of their lives. My dick does more independent thinking that those people.]

  • It literally doesn't even qualify for being a theory.

    Which is no surprise, given that its proponents reject the scientific method in the first place.

  • by hey! ( 33014 ) on Sunday October 03, 2021 @09:15AM (#61855885) Homepage Journal

    The "lab leak hypothesis" covers many possible scenarios, some of them far-fetched, and some of them quite plausible, none of which I can see are actually ruled out by this.

    The most extreme lab leak scenarios are so unlikely that it would be hard to "disprove" them further, but their conspiracy-theory robustness means evidence will never change anyone's minds. You can't debunk a conspiracy theory, because they aren't powered by evidence; they exist to affirm somebody's world view. No matter what evidence you raise, the conspiracy theorist can trump it with a hypothetical, usually someone acting in an incredibly stupid way. Authoritarian regimes are the conspiracy theorist's best friend though: they actually *do* do stupid things to hide evidence, even when that evidence would have very little impact.

    The more likely lab leak scenarios involve accidents: samples that have not been characterized that are mishandled, infected animals coming in contact with unprotected lab workers, scientists in the field being infected and bringing that infection back. It's basically impossible to disprove these scenarios by any demonstration that the virus is somehow *natural*.

    Evidence that the virus emerged from multiple wet markets in Wuhan, if it stands up to scrutiny, *does* tend to lend credence to an animal trade connection, but that doesn't actually disprove anything else.

  • by Dan East ( 318230 ) on Sunday October 03, 2021 @09:26AM (#61855897) Journal

    In 1999 Los Angeles Times reporter Michael Hiltzik won a Pulitzer Prize

    Along with Times staff writer Chuck Philips, Hiltzik won the 1999 Pulitzer Prize for their series on corruption and bribes in the music industry.

    So that makes him an expert on virology? Interesting.

    The "smoking gun" in the study discussed in this article [virological.org] deal with the Lineage A and Lineage B strains of the virus, which were both sampled from people and animals in the marketplace at the same time on December 30, 2019. The fact that two different lineages were found both in people and in animals at that time is their evidence that both must have been circulating in animals, and thus both jumped to humans from those animals.
    There are numerous problems and counter-evidence that this does not discount the lab-leak (or single-source) scenario.

    1) Studies and evidence show that COVID originated in China in mid-November [sciencedaily.com], 2019. Additionally the NIH found evidence [washingtonpost.com] of cases in the USA in December, 2019 "A 2020 study in blood donation specimens collected among residents of 9 states between 13 December and 17 January found antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the United States as early as mid-December 2019". This means that COVID had been spreading amongst humans for around 45 days before the samples were collected that these studies are based on.
    2) Humans easily transmit COVID to animals. In fact, due to our size, how much we tend to cough and sneeze when sick, and how high our heads are above the ground, humans are vastly better virus-spreaders than the animals in those wet markets. Pet dogs and cats, and even wild animals in zoos, have all been infected with COVID from people. Not only is it realistic, but it is totally expected, that live animals stuck in cages in wet markets would be infected with COVID from the thousands of people walking by and looking at them from above.
    3) The timing of two strains jumping from animals to people at the same time is suspect. Basically this study says that there are two lineages in December 30, 2019, and thus both those lineages must have jumped at the same time to people from different animals in different markets. This is extremely unlikely timing.

    The study and article totally ignore the following:
    1) One or both lineages could have been isolated in the Wuhan laboratory and one or both strains could have leaked from that laboratory.
    2) Since humans had been infected for over a month and a half before the samples were collected, humans could have infected animals in markets with one or both lineages. It is to be expected that animals susceptible to COVID kept in the market-place environment would be infected with it by humans.
    3) The jump from animal reservoirs to humans is a likely point in which a virus would mutate, due to the virus replicating in a very different host. It is possible one of the two lineages was an early human mutation that was spread back to animals in the market by humans.

    The main issue is that none of this precludes or even reduces the possibility that someone in the Wuhan laboratory was accidentally infected with COVID. Due to the extremely unlikely timing in the study claiming that two people were infected by two different lineages of COVID at the same time in two different places, it is no more unlikely that the source of one of the strains was a laboratory leak and the source of the other strain was from animal infection.

    The fact (which isn't a fact as it wasn't proven either) that one source of animal to human infection occurred does not mean that ALL

  • by fygment ( 444210 ) on Sunday October 03, 2021 @09:33AM (#61855909)

    ... to allow whomever to obfuscate any facts.

    It's funny: which is the misinformation the 'lab leak == True' or 'lab leak == False'? One person's 'misinformation' is another person's truth.

    But in this case what does it even matter? What would or could we do to the 'perpetrator'? Sue them, throw them in jail, kill them? And the answer is ... nothing.

    Should you still be curious though then follow the money. Was this article 'subsidized' somewhere in the chain of its creation?

  • It Just Doesn't Mat. (Score:4, Interesting)

    by rbrander ( 73222 ) on Sunday October 03, 2021 @11:14AM (#61856043) Homepage

    "China" here, meaning "government of":

    Should I hate China incompetently doing virology that should have been done in a Level 4 area in a Level 2 area?

    Should I hate China for gross, unsafe food-handling?

    Should I hate China for thinking wild animal parts are some kind of viagra (25 years after we got real viagra)?

    I'm really sure that, one way or another, this came out of China, and could have been prevented. Also SARS did, and could have been a much-worse pandemic, and only foreign pandemic-fighting saved us.

    That's on top of my China-hating for their hostage diplomacy, naval bullying, Uighur genociding, and generally for running a despotic, corrupt, environmental-criminal country.

  • by istartedi ( 132515 ) on Sunday October 03, 2021 @12:51PM (#61856341) Journal

    Why did Nixon resign? Not because of a two-bit robbery. Because of the cover-up.

    Why was Clinton impeached? Not for getting a BJ. For lying about it.

    The real crime that's staring us right in the face is the PRC's lack of transparency. It's a cover-up. They could have opened up right away and either put the kibosh on all this speculation or sent some negligent lab workers to prison.

    They didn't do that. They covered up. That's the crime. It's staring us right in the face, and it's a crime with consequences: we'll never know the real answer, and conspiracies will abound.

    As for this report being a "dagger", hardly. Of course similar virus is in the wild. The lab collected, modified, and enhanced those viruses. It may or may not have distributed them. The report, or at least the summary, doesn't lead us strongly to a conclusion in either direction.

  • by blahblahwoofwoof ( 2287010 ) on Sunday October 03, 2021 @04:16PM (#61857005)

    I don't think we'll ever know, definitely, anything, other than Wuhan is where it started.

    The scary part is the discussion as to whether or not it was created in a lab. I never read or saw in any live discussion that it was impossible to create - just that it was likely to be of natural origin. It would be prudent to assume then, that a deadly virus could be built entirely in a lab environment.

    I accept that Covid-19 is almost certainly an animal-to-human transfer. The next pandemic is likely to start the same way. But given CRISPR-Cas9 and other advances in genomics, and looking forward fifty years, someone, somewhere, will build something viral and very deadly. Because Humans.

We are each entitled to our own opinion, but no one is entitled to his own facts. -- Patrick Moynihan

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