Scientists Fine-Tune Odds of Asteroid Bennu Hitting Earth (space.com) 49
NASA's OSIRIS-REx spacecraft has been orbiting an asteroid called Bennu for more than two years to fine-tune the agency's existing models of its trajectory. "As a result, scientists behind new research now say they're confident that the asteroid's total impact probability through 2300 is just 1 in 1,750," reports Space.com. From the report: Estimates produced before OSIRIS-REx arrived at the space rock tallied the cumulative probability of a Bennu impact between the years 2175 and 2199 at 1 in 2,700, according to NASA. While a slightly higher risk than past estimates, it represents a minuscule change in an already minuscule risk, NASA said. Technically, that's a small increase in risk, but the scientists behind the new research say they aren't worried about a potential impact. And besides, the lessons the research offers for asteroid trajectory calculation could reduce concerns about potential impacts by other asteroids more than enough to compensate.
"The impact probability went up just a little bit but it's not a significant change, the impact probability is pretty much the same," lead author Davide Farnocchia, who works at NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies in California, said during a news conference held Wednesday (Aug. 11). "I think that, overall, the situation has improved."
"The impact probability went up just a little bit but it's not a significant change, the impact probability is pretty much the same," lead author Davide Farnocchia, who works at NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies in California, said during a news conference held Wednesday (Aug. 11). "I think that, overall, the situation has improved."
So... in about 150 years? (Score:5, Interesting)
Don't worry, we'll have cooked off long before that, this won't affect us anymore.
Or less pessimistically... (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Or less pessimistically... (Score:4, Interesting)
https://slashdot.org/~sabbede suggested:
That's more than enough time to adjust its orbit and tuck it away in a convenient Lagrange point for start mining.
Or to ease it into geosync orbit, and use it as the anchor for a space elevator ...
Comment removed (Score:5, Funny)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
RockDoctor inquired:
Do you think we'll have materials strong enough to make a space elevator by then?
I suspect that, if we don't have them by then, we'll probably never develop them ...
Re: (Score:2)
Unless someone invents some magical new type of chemical bond which literally hasn't been seen before in any material using the 90-odd more-or-less stable chemical elements.
Re: (Score:3)
That's more than enough time
We can't even make masks and toilet paper on time. We'll probably take on climate change a few years after it's too late.
We're a society that only reacts to things after they have occurred, We probably didn't start storing grain for the winter until after the 1000th famine. Proactive action is unlikely unless it's so cheap to do that only a few people are needed to agree to it. If we need to get the consensus of hundreds of legislatures or worse, dozens of key world leaders, then it's not going to happen no
Re: (Score:2)
So we'll take on climate change ... about 1990?
Re: (Score:2)
Re:So... in about 150 years? (Score:4, Funny)
Don't worry, we'll have cooked off long before that, this won't affect us anymore.
The Flaming Asteroid of Doom will be so disappointed when it does finally arrive. It had one job, and we did all the work for it.
probablities are strange (Score:4, Insightful)
This is missing any useful information.
For example the increase in overall risk could be because there is now 1 near miss that has a very high probability of impact, but the other passes are now further away with less chance of impact.
Re:probablities are strange (Score:4, Insightful)
Re: (Score:2)
Joking, or trolling? Can't tell on this site any more.
Re: (Score:2)
In case you're not joking:
The asteroid Bennu weighs 80 million times the mass of Osiris-REx. Any gravitational effects from the visiting spacecraft are smaller than the uncertainty in measurements. It's like placing a 1kg weight on a pier next to an aircraft carrier - in theory the weight is pulling the aircraft carrier toward the pier, in practice the effect is far too small to measure.
The mechanical impact from the spacecraft touching the surface has a larger effect, but still within the error bars becaus
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
For example the increase in overall risk could be because there is now 1 near miss that has a very high probability of impact, but the other passes are now further away with less chance of impact.
I didn't read the article (shocking, I know), but I read in a different article [cbsnews.com] they had determined there were 26 keyholes the asteroid could pass through in 2135. Going through any one of those would (maybe) put it on a collision course in 2182. They have now redu
Re: (Score:1)
Well that gives more information. The most important being the orbit has one period at 2135.
So here's a better probability.
There is a zero percent chance of this asteroid killing anyone alive today.
Re: (Score:2)
2135 is only 114 years in the future. There have already been people live beyond that age. If there is any significant progress in longevity research between now and then, there is a fairly good chance of people alive today (albeit, possibly not yet in full-time education or employment) being alive in 2135.
Of course, whether the asteroid actually hits is a separate question. As one of the best studied asteroids (and therefore, with one of the best known orbits of any asteroid, which will only imp
Re: probablities are strange (Score:1)
In case you missed it, life expectancy has been falling recently.
Basic outcome of making healthcare more profitable - pay more for less care.
But yeah, I did forget about the last 10 years.
Re: (Score:2)
I wasn't talking about average lifespan, but about maximum duration for which you get only a few datapoints per year.
There might be a brief effect on average lifespan from COVID, but it's unlikely to last a significant period - say a decade. The 1918 pandemic wasn't visible in population estimates for 1930, and that was order of 20-25 times worse because they didn't have a functioning vaccination development pipeline, just a few sporadic efforts for well-kn
margin of error (Score:1)
is what's missing (not only in the summary; it's not mentioned even in the article).
Without it, the claim "our situation has improved" makes no sense...
Probability (Score:2, Insightful)
The impact probability didn't change. What changed was our ability to calculate the trajectories.
Re: (Score:2)
Well, by that logic the probability is either 0% or 100%, we just don't know.
Re: (Score:2)
we can calculate our certainty of 0% and of 100%. And cook that into a single number that we feed the public.
Re: (Score:2)
Correct - we simply do not know if it will impact or not, yet.
Re: (Score:2)
> by that logic the probability is either 0% or 100%
Wrong. The probability is 50%. Either it hits or it doesn't.
Minuscule?? (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Minuscule?? (Score:4, Interesting)
Re: (Score:1)
Actually things that will kill most likely most of humans are:
1. Antibiotic resistant bacteria
2. Pandemics
3. Global warming
But obviously I agree with you that we should put also more money into sky observation. But we should also put more money into those 3 as they are much more likely to happen (like currently ongoing already).
Source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
Re: (Score:1)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: Minuscule?? (Score:2)
A meteor strike is probably a good thing (Score:2)
Nope. (Score:2)
It's pretty clear those who remain will just stop caring about things like not polluting if they are just fighting to survive. That is not going to be a plus. However, if it launches the right amount of ejecta into orbit then it could buy us more time or more likely, wipe out most everything living.
Re: Nope. (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Humans will survive. Humans are the animal equivalent of a weed. You have no idea how insanely resilient our species is and has become. The big brain really paid off.
Re: (Score:2)
Sorry, doesn't work.
Yes, lots of organisms will be killed. But within a few generations time, numbers will rebound. Everybody thinks "ohh, dinosaur killer!", but the KT-impactor (combined with the Deccan traps - the two were so close together in time that we can't distinguish them with any confidence, considering that the Deccan lasted for around a million years) only
Re: (Score:2)
I'm aware something always survives, which is why I wrote "most everything living" which is true.
Actual Research (Score:5, Informative)
Don't worry! (Score:2)
Where can I bet $100 on this (Score:3)
When it hits, it'll be a sweet payday for my great great great great great great great grandkids...
just before they are incinerated.
Numerically Challenged (Score:1)
Odds versus reality. (Score:2)
Models were adjusted, that could be wrong since they have imprecise measurement and incomplete information on things that can alter path. The actual impact probability is one of two numbers, zero or one. After the fact, survivors will know which of the two it was.