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Medicine Science

As Delta Variant Surges, Outbreaks Return in Many Parts of the World (nytimes.com) 363

The highly contagious Delta variant is on the rise, and countries that hoped they had seen the worst of Covid-19 are being battered again. From a report: The nightmare is returning. In Indonesia, grave diggers are working into the night, as oxygen and vaccines are in short supply. In Europe, countries are slamming their doors shut once again, with quarantines and travel bans. In Bangladesh, urban garment workers fleeing an impending lockdown are almost assuredly seeding another coronavirus surge in their impoverished home villages. And in countries like South Korea and Israel that seemed to have largely vanquished the virus, new clusters of disease have proliferated. Chinese health officials announced on Monday that they would build a giant quarantine center with up to 5,000 rooms to hold international travelers. Australia has ordered millions to stay at home.

A year and a half since it began racing across the globe with exponential efficiency, the pandemic is on the rise again in vast stretches of the world, driven largely by the new variants, particularly the highly contagious Delta variant first identified in India. From Africa to Asia, countries are suffering from record Covid-19 caseloads and deaths, even as wealthier nations with high vaccination rates have let their guard down, dispensing with mask mandates and reveling in life edging back toward normalcy. Scientists believe the Delta variant may be twice as transmissible as the original coronavirus, and its potential to infect some partially vaccinated people has alarmed public health officials.

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As Delta Variant Surges, Outbreaks Return in Many Parts of the World

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  • Case in point (Score:5, Insightful)

    by bmimatt ( 1021295 ) on Thursday July 01, 2021 @01:20PM (#61541100)

    If this is not enough of a motivator to those who refuse to get vaccinated, then I don't know what is.
    For as long as there are pocket of unvaccinated people, the virus will hang around. It will keep mutating. We can't predict the mutations, so if it hangs around long enough, it will keep taking lives.

    • Re:Case in point (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Rei ( 128717 ) on Thursday July 01, 2021 @01:26PM (#61541116) Homepage

      For all the people who are afraid of spike proteins: odds are, you're about to get them in your body no matter what. The difference is whether you get them in a form that's free-floating through your body and attached to a virus that's replicating by ravaging your body while doing its best to hide from your immune system for weeks on end, or whether they're double proline substituted and membrane-fused, not freely floating around (except in tiny quantities from degradation), overwhelmingly in your deltoid, only present for a matter of days, and have been given in doses by the billions with a barely even measurable number of nontrivial side effects.

      To all the antivaxxers: it's your choice, and don't worry, I know you'll make the wrong one.

    • Scientists believe the Delta variant may be twice as transmissible as the original coronavirus, and its potential to infect some partially vaccinated people has alarmed public health officials.

      Nine more days to go. Can't rush progress.

    • Re:Case in point (Score:5, Interesting)

      by constComment ( 2894405 ) on Thursday July 01, 2021 @01:35PM (#61541148)

      The key that this article misses is that the virus is expanding in areas close to the equator. (Look at other countries if you doubt this. Last year we saw this as summer approached in AZ and FL.) As it gets hot, people are spending more time inside lowering vitamin D levels. Numerous studies have shown the correlation of virus severity with vitamin D. The vaccination rates may not be the issue here.

      More emphasis should be placed on improving your immune system to fight this. In the end, you will have antibodies and T cell immunity.

      • You want some essential oils to go with that sunlight?

        • Actually the sunlight is not a bad thing for viruses. Vitamin D does give *some* boost to immunity. It's not a magic bullet of course, but it did help with past epidemics where it was discovered that patients exposed to "fresh air" had better outcomes which was tracked down to sunlight.

          But again, vitamin D is not magic, it either helps boost the immune system or possibly the lack of it hurts the immune system. But people with the lack of good sunlight do need to get some extra vitamin D. This does not m

      • Close to the equator, like Russia? Happens to be right over the border for me, St Petersburg is just 200km from here. Over here things are going very well, just a handful of cases, by far the lowest it has been since last summer. Over there though.... record fatality rates because Sputnik V and not much of it, the difference is purely down to vaccination rates.
    • Re:Case in point (Score:5, Interesting)

      by gtall ( 79522 ) on Thursday July 01, 2021 @01:39PM (#61541166)

      Most of the unvaccinated are unpersuadable. I talked recently my doctor about them, his anecdotal information is that their excuses run the gamut from fear of the vaccine, fear of needles, and even include the U.S. Constitution. The latter comes usually with invective of no one is going to tell them what to do. Errrr, I guess, last I checked though the U.S. Constitution wasn't a health care document so methinks they are a bit off base there.

      He also works in a hospital. He was working there also during the AIDS crisis. He said the people with Covid sounded much, much worse than the AIDS patients. They were even coughing in their sleep.

      • Either you let every medical professional in the world tell you what to do, or a viral load is going to tell you what to do.

        Even if you don't want the doctors giving you orders, which of those do you think -- just offhand -- more likely has your best interests in mind?

      • by dryeo ( 100693 )

        Perhaps in America, here in Canada, there are still lots of us eagerly waiting for a shot, mostly the 2nd now. My son as an example was somewhat upset when his 2nd shot was canceled last weekend due to the heat. Sunday he should get it, same day as I'm considered fully vaccinated (2 weeks after 2nd shot).
        The Delta variant is doubling every week here and you really need 2 shots for it.

    • Being vaccinated will prevent you from dying for the most part. Vaccines do not prevent mutations. Covid 19 specifically vaccines do not prevent you from getting ill. They prevent you from the severity of the disease. You can still contract the illness but you will fight it off before it can do severe damage. Factually, you are correct about the spike proteins. But you are incorrect about the mutations.
      • Re:Case in point (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Graymalkin ( 13732 ) * on Thursday July 01, 2021 @02:26PM (#61541368)

        The GP is also right about mutations. The more opportunities the virus has to replicate and spread the more chances of it forming a beneficial (for itself) mutation. If a vaccine reduces infection rates, infection duration, and infection intensity there's simply fewer opportunities for mutations to occur and spread. The vaccine itself doesn't stop mutations, it just reduces the total number of infected cells among the infected population.

        Say it takes 50 million infections to generate a new variant of COVID. In an unvaccinated populace with high rates of community spread you can hit that 50 million mark in months and find yourself with two variants. In a vaccinated populace with very low community spread it might take years for a new variant to emerge. The variants per decade numbers are much more manageable than variants per year.

        • Thank you for adding the detail. I thought I was more obvious - this makes it clearer to the average ./ reader.

        • I'm surprised Fauci (or anyone else, really) over the last year and a half made the point that "herd immunity" through infection is pretty much the same as "mutation pool" for the virus.

          So great, you now have COVID-19 v1 antibodies, how about v2? Or maybe *you're* in the pocket of big virus and are trying to help it survive?

        • Your conclusions are spot on, but just to nit-pick, it's not the number of infections that lead to mutations it's the number of times the virus replicates. So along with being less contagious an infected but vaccinated person will fight it off quicker resulting in fewer total replications than an unvaccinated person's infection would produce.

      • "Vaccines do not prevent mutations"..

        Well.. not completely, but mostly they do since not as many people get sick, and they get less sick which equals much less virus and replication, thus less chance of a mutation.

        • by ghoul ( 157158 )
          I would think vaccines would put evolutionary pressure on the virus to evolve into a variant that beats the vaccine.
          • Yes they do.

            The idea with vaccinations is to pressurise the virus into extinction. Since the mutations arise by random events, there is already the pressure of the mutations to :

            1. Be viable. An overwhelming majority fail here.
            2. Be immune to regular human immunity
            3. Be able to evade the immunity given by more transmissible variants of themselves. For this, they can get
            3a. More transmissible
            3b. Be different to immune system

            Vaccinations dry up the pool of victims that have no specific immunity to covid-19(an

    • and 40-50% are asymptomatic. So it's easy to shrug it off. I've had relatives insist God would protect them from anything and then die young of lung cancer from smoking. Finally it doesn't help that we have an entire political party (and it's media apparatus) pushing hard against masks and vaccination... likely in an effort to damage the country and win back seats in the mid terms.

      I just don't know how to reach people under those circumstance. I don't blame them even. You grow up like that, it's hard to
  • misinformation (Score:5, Informative)

    by switchfeet ( 982197 ) on Thursday July 01, 2021 @01:25PM (#61541112)
    Delta is not more deadly. Perhaps more transmissible. See Monica Gandhi, Infectious Disease Expert https://twitter.com/MonicaGand... [twitter.com]
    • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

      by gtall ( 79522 )

      Thank you, I always go to Twitter to receive health advice.

      • How is an expert on Twitter suddenly less expert because they're on Twitter?

    • Re:misinformation (Score:5, Informative)

      by Rei ( 128717 ) on Thursday July 01, 2021 @01:35PM (#61541150) Homepage

      See multiple peer-reviewed studies showing a 2,0 - 2,7x higher rate of hospitalization after controlling for age, vaccination status, risk factors, etc, not "Monica on Twitter".

      Vaccination has done great things for the UK in this wave, including 20-25% the hospitalization rate vs. the equivalent point in the last wave due to the high vaccination rate among the highest-risk individuals, and an even bigger difference with deaths. But that doesn't make Delta itself less deadly than older strains. And the disease does not simply revolve around hospitalization/death rates, nor should breeding vaccine evasion be brushed off, nor the fact that if you allow the case load to get much higher, you now have a much high higher multiplier offsetting your lower hospitalization / death rates.

      It seems people decided to give up on achieving herd immunity, going instead for "just reducing the case fatality rate". Okay, but there are consequences to this choice, including breeding better, more evasive viruses that put everyone else in risk, as well as a high incidence rate of Long COVID.

      • Re:misinformation (Score:5, Interesting)

        by Luckyo ( 1726890 ) on Thursday July 01, 2021 @01:48PM (#61541198)

        Increased hospitalization is not the same thing as increased mortality. It used to be. It no longer is. One of the primary differences between delta and other variants is that it does generate high amount of medium to severe covid, but almost no deaths.

        Relevant chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5... [twimg.com]

        Those two have basically decoupled among people who have delta variant. It's likely because most people now have one dose in them. It could be because delta itself is evolved to be less lethal, which is a natural progression of a virus as it evolves more adaptations to a new host. Most likely, it's a combination of both of these factors.

        On the other hand, the whole problem of "vaccinating in the middle of pandemic" is one that has been raised on the evolutionary biologist side, but has been largely suppressed and censored even in scientific community until very recently. Reality is that when you put a virus that is currently widely spread in population under a very narrow evolutionary pressure (vaccination targeted at spike protein), evolved variants that can work around this vaccine, even to a very limited extent, will easily outcompete variants that are defeated by it. This is basics of evolutionary theory and utterly uncontroversial. Or were, until covid and the need to propagandize totality of populace with a pro-vaccination message.

        I am still unsure if "fuck the science, we need to propagandize people because that's the only way out of the pandemic regardless" was the right way to go. Arguments for it are very strong, but I fear that evolutionary biologists have a really good point AND that damage that ongoing wave of censorship in the name of pushing for herd immunity has done to scientific methodology is irreversible in short and medium term and will create significant problems even in long term. Whenever politics get involved in science and actually manage to successfully force scientists censor other scientists, outcomes tend to be exceedingly bad for society in the long term.

        • by DRJlaw ( 946416 )

          Increased hospitalization is not the same thing as increased mortality. It used to be. It no longer is. One of the primary differences between delta and other variants is that it does generate high amount of medium to severe covid, but almost no deaths.

          Relevant chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5 [twimg.com]...

          Your chart mixes new cases from all variants and deaths from all variants, and therefore means next to nothing.

          Meanwhile, actual Public Health England briefings [service.gov.uk] state that "it is too early to provide a formal a

          • Re:misinformation (Score:4, Insightful)

            by Luckyo ( 1726890 ) on Thursday July 01, 2021 @02:33PM (#61541392)

            Correct. But one thing is clear. We have delta, it's getting prevalent in places like UK, but there is still no spike in deaths.

            Considering the prevalence of delta, if it was anywhere near lethality of previous variants, we should have already seen elevated deaths. We do not see it. Peer reviewed studies referenced above on the other hand are not out yet for the exact reason you cite: "not enough time to draw conclusions". That has been the theme of response to this virus so far. Not enough time.

            Would it have been better if I clarified "in light of information we have so far, delta variant appears to produce medium and high severity covid, but no deaths"? I assumed that was a given, but given your response, I suspect that was a misconception on my part.

            • by DRJlaw ( 946416 )

              Correct. But one thing is clear. We have delta, it's getting prevalent in places like UK, but there is still no spike in deaths.

              So you literally blew right by the "lagging indicator" issue and ignored the actual text from the report.

              "We have delta... but there is still no spike in deaths" ignores that Delta was a minority of cases until very recently and "no spike in deaths" does not equal zero deaths, but a consistent level of deaths suggesting, if anything, that the case fatality rate is comparable, rathe

            • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

              by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

              No big spike in deaths (although they are up) but what is less clear is the effect on long COVID.

              At least a million people in the UK have long COVID, it's a huge public health crisis with massive economic and social ramifications.

              Estimates are something like 10% of people get it. That means about 15k people in the UK got it in the last week and the number is increasing. Many of them are kids who aren't vaccinated, can't be vaccinated, but many are fully vaccinated adults too.

      • Monica on Twitter is a disease expert and a true leader in her field. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] No scientist worth his salt and all the data Iâ(TM)ve seen points to the vaccines providing robust protection. Stop with the misinformation. https://twitter.com/erictopol/... [twitter.com] Hereâ(TM)s dr. Eric Topol with more. https://twitter.com/erictopol/... [twitter.com] Data from the UK and ISRAEL both show less lethal with vaccination holding up. https://twitter.com/maryannede... [twitter.com] https://twitter.com/monicagand. [twitter.com]
      • 2.0x based on what? For example, if 2x people are infected, 2x people would be in hospital without it being any less dangerous. But who knows if that's what you meant because you threw out a meaningless "2x".

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      It's not more deadly, it will just kill more people all other things being equal.

      Dr. Gandhi's point is that other things *aren't* equal, because the vaccination rates in the UK have reduced the fatality rates among vaccinated people. The demonstrable ability of Delta to create mild breakthrough infections in vaccinated people is not good news for anyone who has refused vaccination. It increases their chance of being exposed.

      Once you're sick, it might not make any difference which strain you've been infect

    • A higher transmission rate means it will infect more people, more quickly, meaning it will kill more people, even if the rate that it kills people is the same or even slightly less than previous variants. Think of it this way, the Delta variant is considered to be 2x more transmissible. Infection rates grow at an exponential number (i.e. if a single person infected might infect 1.5 other people with one variant, and the new variant, they are expected to infect in generation of 1, 3, 9, 27... that is a LOT m
    • Re:misinformation (Score:4, Informative)

      by quantaman ( 517394 ) on Thursday July 01, 2021 @02:51PM (#61541464)

      Delta is not more deadly. Perhaps more transmissible.

      See Monica Gandhi, Infectious Disease Expert

      https://twitter.com/MonicaGand... [twitter.com]

      That Tweet doesn't mean what you think it means.

      She's saying nothing about Delta being less deadly.

      Rather, she's saying that vaccinations mean that infections are less likely to lead to severe illness and death.

      It's still early enough that we can't be certain that this will hold. We're also still struggling to understand the long term effects of "normal" COVID [medrxiv.org] much less the variants. I'm young enough to probably get another 50 years of life, I'm fortunate enough to have dodged COVID and the long term consequences so far, I'd rather not catch it and take some sort of long-term health hit at this point.

      • by EvilSS ( 557649 )
        This. We need the data separated for vaccinated vs unvaccinated patients before we can make a call on case fatality rate vs prior variants. Lumping in the vaccinated patients who also happen to test positive is not apples to apples.
  • "Rooms" (Score:5, Funny)

    by fahrbot-bot ( 874524 ) on Thursday July 01, 2021 @01:54PM (#61541224)

    Chinese health officials announced on Monday that they would build a giant quarantine center with up to 5,000 rooms to hold international travelers.

    They misspelled "cells".

  • C'mon we sorta had this contained, morons.

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