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Science

Ancient Tsunami Could Have Wiped Out Scottish Cities Today, Study Finds (theguardian.com) 28

Posted by msmash from the closer-look dept.
Towns and cities across Scotland would be devastated if the country's coastline was hit by a tsunami of the kind that happened 8,200 years ago, according to an academics' study. From a report: While about 370 miles of Scotland's northern and eastern coastline were affected when the Storegga tsunami struck, the study suggests a modern-day disaster of the same magnitude would have worse consequences.

The researchers at the universities of Sheffield, St Andrews and York attributed this to denser human populations and higher sea levels that could potentially destroy seafront and port areas of Arbroath, Stonehaven, Aberdeen, Inverness and Wick, all of which have significant built-up areas less than 10 metres above sea level and directly face the sea. The study which maps the impact of the ancient tsunami for the first time, used modelling to estimate how far the wave would have travelled inland. The estimates suggest the water could have encroached up to 18 miles inland. That distance today would probably leave a town such as Montrose, which overlooks a tidal lagoon and has a population of 12,000, completely devastated.
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Ancient Tsunami Could Have Wiped Out Scottish Cities Today, Study Finds More

Ancient Tsunami Could Have Wiped Out Scottish Cities Today, Study Finds

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  • What about the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by nightflameauto ( 6607976 ) on Friday June 04, 2021 @03:29PM (#61455046)

    I mean, if we're going to randomly pick catastrophes from the past and assess the damage now just for a snazzy headline, that'd be a lot bigger impact.

    Ooo! Ooo! I have one! How about if the same changes happened to Earth now that happened during the Permian-Triassic extinction? The largest extinction event in history! Can we get a human loss estimate on what the cost would be, both in lives and dollars, if that were to happen starting today? I'll bet that could yield some stupendous clickbait headlines!

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by fermion ( 181285 )
      It is a fair point, but it has more to do with likely hood of the event, as well as the calamity. Scotland like New York, it not known for tsunamis. Yet it is useful to look at the risks. For instance we have scenarios in which volcanos and land collapse destroy both the British isles and the eastern US seaboard. What is more interesting is when Yellowstone erupts destroying everything between it and Denver.

      • When Yellowstone goes off, it's going to devastate a lot more area than just from there to Denver. Granted, you're speaking of immediacy, but the ensuing days, weeks, months, possibly years after will be globally . . . let's say interesting for anybody that survives the initial blast. I live far enough away that I may not see the initial plume, but I will definitely see the effects within the first few days, if not sooner.

        Thing is, it doesn't matter where on Earth you live, there's always a risk of insta-

      • The question to ask is: What caused the tsunami and is it likely to reoccur?

        If the answer to the latter is yes, then studying the effects makes sense.

        • The tsunami was likely caused by an underwater land slide. Whether a similar one is likely to happen around the same area, hard to say. But somewhere around the world there's probably one waiting to happen. As has been said, we know less about the ocean than space. If nothing else, we really need to increase scanning of the ocean and ocean floor. It's not just plate tectonics that cause tsunamis, but also structurally weak bits of sediment.
    • Q1. Estimate the return period for a Chicxulub impactor (one has occurred in last 65 million years).

      Q2. Estimate the return period for a Scottish tsunami event consideration (one has occurred in last 8000 years).

      Q3. Compare and contrast the answers from Q1 and Q4, and discuss what that tells us about the likeliness of a similar even occurring during a human lifetime, and how it relates to the magnitude of the event.

      Assume the events have a Poisson random distribution.

      Hint: based on this limited data

  • The good news (Score:4, Informative)

    by fermion ( 181285 ) on Friday June 04, 2021 @03:29PM (#61455052) Homepage Journal
    Islay is on the other side of Scotland so real scotch whiskey is not in jeopardy.

    • I recently tried Port Askaig 110 Proof for the first time. I've always been a Lafroaig guy, but Port Askaig has usurped its peaty throne - it's an awesome Islay.

  • The scotch glass is half full!

  • wot (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward

    ancient tsunami could have wiped out cities today? fucking verb tenses, how do they work

  • How do these people get money to do dumb studies like this? It boggles the mind. I bet there would be even more deaths if we went through another major ice age.

    • Another major ice age? Global warming stopped in its tracks! HALLELUJAH!

  • Headline has me saying "WTF?" (Score:4, Funny)

    by plate_o_shrimp ( 948271 ) on Friday June 04, 2021 @04:08PM (#61455196)
    How could a tsunami that happened in ancient times wipe out a city today? If it hasn't reached the coast by now it never will....

    We should maybe be more worried about tsunamis which haven't happened yet.

  • This is exactly why we must ban all science (Score:3)

    by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Friday June 04, 2021 @04:38PM (#61455320)

    Towns and cities across Scotland would be devastated if the country's coastline was hit by a tsunami of the kind that happened 8,200 years ago

    The problem with science, is that eventually it will advance to the point where objects, and then cities will inevitably be able to be sent back in time.

    Either through accident, sheer frustration with being able to understand a thick Scottish accent, or Sean Connery having slept with the wrong scientists mother/sister/daughter (either alone or in combination), it is thus inevitable that Scottish cities will in fact be sent back in time 8,200 years.

    The only protection Scotland has from this inevitable disaster then, is that we must immediately ban all further scientific developments worldwide.

  • Why is this news now? (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward

    This was looked into in 2004 at the time of development of the Ormen Lange natural gas field. The chance of a similar slide being trigered by the drilling was reckoned at less than 1%, so the economic gain from extracting the gas exceeded the calculated downside risk of losing coastal Scotland (where very few people owned shares in the gas company anyway.)

  • Risk (Score:2)

    by rl117 ( 110595 )

    I don't think I'll lose any sleep over this (I live on the coast near Dundee). Of all the potential problems we have to worry about, having our homes devastated by a tsunami are so low on the list they are barely worth mentioning.

  • Confirms the wisdom of Nicola Sturgeon in taking Scotland to zero carbon, to tackle global warming. Many have wondered why global warming should have such a high priority with the SNP.

    Some have even argued that it was cynical placation of their Green coalition partners.

    Some have said that health and education were more important uses for limited funds

    Some have said that even if Scotland does go carbon zero, it will have no measurable effect on CO2 levels globally, and will cost a bomb, on top of the hit fr

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