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China Earth Science

WHO Report Says Animals Likely Source of COVID (apnews.com) 287

A joint WHO-China study on the origins of COVID-19 says that transmission of the virus from bats to humans through another animal is the most likely scenario and that a lab leak is "extremely unlikely," The Associated Press reported Monday, citing a draft copy. From the report: The findings offer little new insight into how the virus began to spread around the globe and many questions remain unanswered, though that was as expected. But the report did provide more detail on the reasoning behind the researchers' conclusions. The team proposed further research in every area except the lab leak hypothesis. The report's release has been repeatedly delayed, raising questions about whether the Chinese side was trying to skew the conclusions to prevent blame for the pandemic falling on China. A World Health Organization official said late last week that he expected it would be ready for release "in the next few days."

The AP received a copy on Monday from a Geneva-based diplomat from a WHO-member country. It wasn't clear whether the report might still be changed prior to release, though the diplomat said it was the final version. A second diplomat confirmed getting the report too. Both refused to be identified because they were not authorized to release it ahead of publication. The researchers listed four scenarios in order of likelihood for the emergence of the coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2. Topping the list was transmission from bats through another animal, which they said was likely to very likely. They evaluated direct spread from bats to humans as likely, and said that spread through "cold-chain" food products was possible but not likely. Bats are known to carry coronaviruses and, in fact, the closest relative of the virus that causes COVID-19 has been found in bats. However, the report says that "the evolutionary distance between these bat viruses and SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be several decades, suggesting a missing link."

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WHO Report Says Animals Likely Source of COVID

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  • I seem to recall that this conclusion was already reached a year ago, and people had already made up their mind about what they were going to believe.
    • by LostMyAccount ( 5587552 ) on Monday March 29, 2021 @11:22AM (#61212942)

      It's the perfect storm of bullshit.

      Authoritarian, secretive regime disinclined to accept any blame for mistakes. Maybe add in a touch of cultural predisposition to "saving face" and avoiding public embarrassment and an oppositional attitude to foreign invesitgation. Add in an invisible enemy, a virus, which is challenging to trace to a source of origin on a good day. Now make it a *novel* virus that nobody knew much about.

      And this is before we get into international posturing and competition and various levels of domestic politicization of the pandemic, including a major world leader openly engaging in racist demagoguery with regard to the virus' geographic origin.

      Even if this thing had popped up in France instead of China, you'd still have a baseline of conspiracy theories which are only made worse by the politicization and nature of the government of its apparent country of origin.

      Anyone bought into a theory before this can't possibly find enough new evidence that will sway them from other narratives.

      Even the general narrative of bat -> human can have the lab inserted.

    • If the report has good evidence, it will definitely change my mind (or give me more confidence in my current mind). Right now I have the source of coronavirus in my mind listed as "I don't know."

      If it's just a bunch of people's opinions without convincing evidence, it won't change my mind.

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      Occam's Razor says it's probably not a lab leak. Why one would start with that assumption makes no sense, other than fitting their preconceived boogeyman notions. "But the gov't is secretive and evasive" doesn't say much because most despots are secretive and evasive out of habit.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by invid ( 163714 )

        I like the Bronx panther analogy.

        Let's say you hear reports of a Florida Panther wandering around the streets of the Bronx. Is your first thought that the panther came on it's own all the way from Florida? Probably not. You might then ask, what is the largest concentration of Florida Panthers in the Bronx? Maybe there is a facility in the Bronx that is known to have a population of panthers, maybe even a panther breeding program? The zoo! Maybe it came from the Bronx zoo?

        The Wuhan lab was basically a corona

        • That's a shit analogy though, because coronaviruses aren't Florida Panthers. They're not some isolated, inbred population.

          So let me ask you this. When the Florida Panthers were found in... let's say Maine, 16 years earlier, was that also the Bronx zoo?
  • Fine print (Score:2, Insightful)

    by burtosis ( 1124179 )
    “From bats to humans through another animal” - isn’t that one of the main “lab leak” angles? It was a coronavirus from a bat being studied in how it infects other animals then accidentally transferred to humans? So basically the day to day operations of the lab in Wuhan except this time a virus that spreads easily and quickly often with no visible symptoms somehow got out. I honestly find it hard to ascribe enough certainty to say what is the most likely scenario, however I
    • Just to be precise, a lab leak would not probably involve an intermediary *animal*. It would be bat->lab->people.

      Technology Review has a (possibly paywalled) article with some interesting information here: https://www.technologyreview.c... [technologyreview.com]

      It seems awfully hard to ignore that the Wuhan lab was definitely working with coronaviruses from bats prior to the outbreak, but guts and anecdotes are not data and hard analysis.

      That said, your point needs amplification that a leak from a lab does not mean an engin

      • I only meant it was a widely circulated conjecture, not that it was the most certain, yes. I see it as if it was from bats hundreds of miles away in a rural area, the majority of the exposed population would be locals, and yet there is a fairly high degree of certainty it did not originate there but right next to the lab where you would expect a high level of interaction. And yet, Wuhan is so large, there is also a chance that the initial case did travel to Wuhan after exposure but before becoming symptom
        • China really does not have that kind of control you think it does. Stories thoughout the years seem to imply that on the contrary, China is very loosely controlled, decentralized, and inept.

        • Re:Fine print (Score:4, Interesting)

          by Admiral Krunch ( 6177530 ) on Monday March 29, 2021 @12:30PM (#61213322)

          It's not hard to travel hundreds of miles.

          It's very hard to find a virus when
          1. There was no test for it.
          2. It can spread without symptoms.
          3. Even with symptoms they can take days to present.
          4. Symptoms are very similar to other much more common viruses.
          5. But mostly, Nobody was looking for it because we didn't even know it existed yet.

          It's not at all surprising nobody found a trail of infected people in a straight line from where the virus first jumped to humans.
          We don't even know where that was anyway.
          We don't even know if it came from a bat or some other animal that caught it from a bat.

          We do know it could have been circulating for up to two months [ucsd.edu] before the first detected cases in Wuhan.

      • According to the lab leak conspiracy theory, passing through human cell cultures explains how it became so well adapted to us so quickly without getting any of the telltale signs of genetic engineering. So its more like:

        lab bat -> human culture -> (another lab bat?) -> people

  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Monday March 29, 2021 @11:14AM (#61212890)
    for the world to blame it on a lab accident.

    The scientific consensus has been the virus was caused by deforestation and wet markets drastically increasing interspecies contact and increasing the opportunities coronavirus has had to jump from one species to another and mutate.

    China's slash & burn policies have been very profitable, and needed to maintain the 5% growth they want/need. In particular they need the wet markets & deforestation to prop up the rural economies.

    Blaming it on a lab blames individuals rather than systems. This keeps anyone from questioning those systems and calling for reform. That works out well for American politics too, since it makes blame shifting much easier (it's tough to get angry enough about a complex system to be willing to blame it, you're more likely to just want the system fixed).

    It's a win-win for both China and US Politics... and a lose-lose for anyone who catches the next disease that comes out of these systems....
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by burtosis ( 1124179 )

      Blaming it on a lab blames individuals rather than systems. This keeps anyone from questioning those systems and calling for reform.

      This is the result of a failure of the population to engage in critical thinking, and the sensationalist media spreading spin to enhance profits. What happens when you have several highly legitimate related problems, which are rampant because the world is a complex place? Accept a 100% failure rate at addressing the entire problem because too many people can’t focus past the two sentences of addressing the first part? News flash, just because something is less important or less likely does not me

  • China owns WHO (Score:2, Interesting)

    by iamhassi ( 659463 )
    WHO is owned by China so you can’t trust anything they say https://thefederalist.com/2020... [thefederalist.com]
  • There's no evidence of her body.

    There's bleach all over the truck and a stack of books about forensic investigations, but there's no credible evidence that her body was ever in the truck.

The key elements in human thinking are not numbers but labels of fuzzy sets. -- L. Zadeh

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