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Medicine United States

CDC Study Says On-Premises Dining Linked To COVID-19 Spread (npr.org) 147

Thelasko shares a new study published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. NPR reports on the key findings: As several states face criticism for lifting coronavirus-related public health restrictions, a study published Friday confirms that state-imposed mask mandates and on-premises dining restrictions help slow the spread of COVID-19. The study, published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, looked at the impact of state-issued mask mandates and on-premises dining on county-level COVID-19 cases and deaths between March 1 and Dec. 31.

It found that mask mandates were associated with "statistically significant" decreases in daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation. In contrast, allowing on-premises dining was associated with an increase in daily cases 41 to 100 days after reopening, and an increase in daily death growth rates after 61 to 100 days. "Policies that require universal mask use and restrict any on-premises restaurant dining are important components of a comprehensive strategy to reduce exposure to and transmission of SARS-CoV-2," the study authors wrote. "Such efforts are increasingly important given the emergence of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants in the United States." The study says its analysis did not differentiate between indoor and outdoor dining.

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CDC Study Says On-Premises Dining Linked To COVID-19 Spread

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  • Water is indeed wet. Beer is good. And the sky is blue.
  • They had to go out two to three months to detect a "statistically significant increase" of two to three percent.

    Which was almost certainly close to (or even within) within the error range.

    There was no significant increase in the shorter term (in the first month or so).

    It mostly sounds like they went hunting for an association, found it through massaging statistics, and backtracked to the conclusion.

    • Statistics is the only way to conduct this research. Perhaps you are willing to be part of a study where they blow covid directly in your face while dining?
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by Rockoon ( 1252108 )
        There is a difference between the scientific use of statistics and data dredging, and you just demonstrated that you have no fucking idea what I am talking about. You shouldnt be talking at all.
        • An unreconstructed Trumpian, eh? Next thing you'll be denying a vote to those who are not right-thinking patriotic Americans (where "right thinking" == "patriotic" == votes for the Beloved Orange Leader).

          And to think - democracy gave idiots like you a vote!

    • that's how pandemics work. A table of people get it, but they're not statistically significant. It's all the people they *give* it to that makes it significant.

      2-3% is sizable when you're talking a virus that's killed 500k. Put another way, the lock downs saved 12,500 lives. Around 700 under the age of 55. And that's before we take into account that these procedures have more or less destroyed the run of the mill flu virus (which couldn't spread in the face of the kind of measures needed to control COVI
      • So, you're saying that the flu has been destroyed because of these measures? I'm not quite sure how you can come to that conclusion when the flu has been largely absent in places where voluntary mask wearing has been minimal and there haven't been lockdowns. In Sweden 59% of people say they never wear masks, and only 11% say they frequently wear masks... and they are only now thinking about locking down for the first time.... and the flu is absent there as well.

        We also know from numerous studies that mask
        • by dgatwood ( 11270 )

          So, you're saying that the flu has been destroyed because of these measures? I'm not quite sure how you can come to that conclusion when the flu has been largely absent in places where voluntary mask wearing has been minimal and there haven't been lockdowns. In Sweden 59% of people say they never wear masks, and only 11% say they frequently wear masks... and they are only now thinking about locking down for the first time.... and the flu is absent there as well.

          The flu basically dies out every summer, because its transmissibility is just above 1, and when it is warm outside, people are outdoors, sharing less air with each other. It mainly comes back because of international travel from places where flu is still in-season.

          We also know from numerous studies that masks are ineffective against influenza, not from inferred data, but actually testing with influenza strains.

          That's not actually true. The studies that "proved" masks ineffectual were fundamentally flawed in their experiment design, because they were studying flu spread within households, not out in the wild. If you've ever lived in a house with other

      • And that's before we take into account that these procedures have more or less destroyed the run of the mill flu virus (which couldn't spread in the face of the kind of measures needed to control COVID)

        No, what we did was create a flu pandemic for ourselves in the fall with no vaccine and more limited immunity. The flu is undoubtedly down by a lot, but it's not gone.

    • by larryjoe ( 135075 ) on Friday March 05, 2021 @10:27PM (#61129286)

      They had to go out two to three months to detect a "statistically significant increase" of two to three percent.

      Which was almost certainly close to (or even within) within the error range.

      There was no significant increase in the shorter term (in the first month or so).

      It mostly sounds like they went hunting for an association, found it through massaging statistics, and backtracked to the conclusion.

      Based on the report, the growth rate is is a daily growth rate. So, 2-3% per day is a significant increase. Furthermore, the p-values indicate a lot of certainty. So, your assertions are not correct.

      • If it is indeed a 2-3% daily growth rate, and that is a significant increase, how long would it take for there to be a noticeable difference when looking at the delta in IFR and hospitalization rates among counties with similar demographics with differing mask mandates?

        Don't you find it curious that the comparisons were tangential to one another? One showed that infection and death rates slowed where mask mandates were implemented, but did not show any data regarding where mask mandates were not implemente
      • by cirby ( 2599 )

        No, it's not a daily growth rate.

        If it were a _daily_ change in the growth rate, they would have had a massive increase in cases, and it wouldn't have taken specific statistical analysis to notice the difference.

        For example, if it was only a one percent increase, they'd see almost a 35% increase in cases in just thirty days (which they claim they didn't see) - and a 140% increase in ninety days. Daily compound interest pays off massively in even a month or so.

        At two percent per day, you'd have 80% more case

        • No, it's not a daily growth rate.

          I'm sorry, but you are not correct. From the report, "During March 1–December 31, 2020, state-issued mask mandates applied in 2,313 (73.6%) of the 3,142 U.S. counties. Mask mandates were associated with a 0.5 percentage point decrease (p = 0.02) in daily COVID-19 case growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.1, 1.5, 1.7, and 1.8 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all) (Table 1)."

      • You have to understand what the words mean. The 2% is the decrease in the daily growth rate. This does not mean that the growth rate was 2% per day. It means that if the growth rate was 2% per day without a mask mandate, then the growth rate was 1.96% per day with a mask mandate, 2% less than without the mandate. That is very different.

      • You're making up numbers though, "2-3%" is a wild exaggeration of the result. The study is only 4 pages, why not take the time to read it? Mask policies had a pretty demonstrable effect of (drum roll...) a decrease in daily case growth rate of 1.8% after 80 days (nearly 3 months). Translation: if your county had 100 new infections per day and implemented a mask policy, 3 months later you had 98 new cases per day.

        Yes, they have had a "demonstrable" effect, however this data clearly shows only a fool w
        • You're making up numbers though, "2-3%" is a wild exaggeration of the result. The study is only 4 pages, why not take the time to read it? Mask policies had a pretty demonstrable effect of (drum roll...) a decrease in daily case growth rate of 1.8% after 80 days (nearly 3 months). Translation: if your county had 100 new infections per day and implemented a mask policy, 3 months later you had 98 new cases per day.

          Yes, they have had a "demonstrable" effect, however this data clearly shows only a fool would argue general mask policies have, or were ever going to, alter the course of this pandemic.

          This is an incorrect reading of the report. From the report, "The daily growth rate was defined as the difference between the natural log of cumulative cases or deaths on a given day and the natural log of cumulative cases or deaths on the previous day, multiplied by 100." It's clear from the report that the growth rate is the difference in cases or deaths over a time window of one day.

          Somehow, some people want to believe that the recommendation of the report is flawed and try to manufacture a flaw in the

    • by hey! ( 33014 ) on Friday March 05, 2021 @10:48PM (#61129326) Homepage Journal

      Their data was sorted into twenty day buckets. You probably shouldn't expect to see large *population-wide* increases in cases just 20 days after the dining restrictions are lifted. Although it is possible to become infectious a mere two days after exposure that's rare; on average it takes around a week. Then the next person you infect will take, on average, a week to infect someone else. At that rate you'd expect it to take many weeks before the effects grow large enough to see them in the general population.

      As for saying it is "almost certainly close to (or even within) within the error range," that's nonsensical. A result is either significant, or it is in the error range; it can't be both. The p 0.05 standard is somewhat arbitrary, but it is practical because (a) it is reasonably tough to hit but (b) not so tough that studies and experiments have to be designed on a huge scale. That's the strike zone; you could argue it should be smaller, but that's what people aim for.

      In any case the significant result was repeated in the 61-80 day and 81-100 buckets, so it doesn't look like the first result was at Type 1 error.

      • by cirby ( 2599 )

        ...but the same study also found a drop in infection rates due to mask mandates over less than 20 days.

        So you *should* expect to see large population-wide changes in that short of a time period. Either that, or someone cooked the books, in which case "p-value" is meaningless.

        The really interesting thing was that mask mandates had such a small effect, according to this study. Less than two percent over the course of 100 days.

      • I think there are two definitions of significant being confused here - one speaks to whether the result (mask policies showed a decrease in case growth rate) was the result of pure chance or not, and the other is whether the resulting impact is meaningful or not.

        To the first, their math shows there is very little likelihood these results were from pure chance, eg. the dataset is big enough that the mask-effect they sow is true. To the second, you can find the answer halfway down page two of the actual s [cdc.gov]
    • All those scientists were also saying that the superbowl was going to cause massive deaths in the following weeks.
      • I know next to nothing about American sports but I remember reading that some large proportion of superbowl tickets were reserved for people who had been vaccinated.

        https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-t... [nfl.com]

        I think this was about a third of the tickets, which should have been enough to reduce the spread of the virus.

    • I am surprised you didn't post this as Anon. I would reply further but you have roundly been shut down already, with "facts" and "science".

      I can't take someone seriously who thinks "statistically significant" and "within error range" can be the same thing.

    • The details won't matter to the media who will continue to bleat out the headline.

  • “Daily case and death growth rates before implementation of mask mandates were not statistically different from the reference period.” As in long term it does nothing.
  • All the research up to...oh...WHEN TEXAS OPENED UP said there was NO appreciable elevation in infection rates due to indoor dining when precautions are taken.

    Now that Texas and several others have drawn a line in the sand, isn't it CONVENIENT that this "study" presents itself?

    I call "SHENANIGANS!"

  • The proof is right in front of your eyes.

    The Biden administration has opened the southern border and is allowing a huge wave of people to flood in without ANY testing or screening at all for most of them - they're even shipping them to other states. It's impossible for the feds to honestly fear the spread of COVID-19 by American citizens sitting in various eateries (something many of our state and federal authorities have been caught on camera doing, incidentally) so much that they insist American wear mask

    • by carton ( 105671 )

      Every country that has done well with a containment strategy has had border controls, quarantine, and rapid testing. Iceland, Australia New Zealand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan have all done this. They're all islands or have hard land borders.

      This is not medically surprising based on priors.

      Border control, quarantine, rapid testing, is better-supported by these just-so longitudinal stories of which TFA is one than the 2% cherry-picked heavily-confounded against-priors nonsense about "masks" that CDC actua

    • by MobyDisk ( 75490 )

      The Biden administration has opened the southern border and is allowing a huge wave of people to flood in without ANY testing or screening at all for most of them

      Newsweek fact-check on migrant screening [newsweek.com]
      Newsweek called it "half true" since it looks like some of them are tested while others are not. I cannot understand the reasoning behind allowing any of them through without testing.

      Its annoying that Newsweek editors get CBP and CPB mixed-up half the time in their article.

  • Because comparisons between mandated and non mandated mask wearing within the same states doesn't show what they claim here.
  • It is well established that Covid-19 is most often transmitted when people are moving from place to place and breathing at the same time. The CDC is recommending that everyone stay at home in a room alone. While recognizing the need to leave this room on rare occasions for certain necessary activities, CDC recommends that we do not breathe when outside of our solitary room to slow the spread of the deadly virus. After another year or two of this, we may be able to return to more normal practices, but pro

  • SARS2 is a respiratory virus. Such viruses have existed since long before we humans. Today, because we have a more developed brain than other primates, we know how they spread. This is why they are now called respiratory viruses. Masks were a thing hundreds of years ago. Even then they had a bit of a clue.

    So where are the worst places for such contagions to spread, based on thousands of years of scientific research? Seems places where people are packed together sharing airborne droplets are noticea
  • The study appears to have made no effort to compare counties that reopened dining to those (in California?) which did not. Rather it simply took each county and compared numbers before and after restrictions were lifted. Considering that most of the lifting of restrictions occurred late Summer and into Fall, that means that the study effectively attributes the Winter surge to the lifting of dining restrictions. Similarly, the decline from mask mandates doesn't compare mandate counties to non-mandate counti
  • They're only Americans. By following the diktats of the Beloved Orange Leader, we can fence them in, to die of disease, die of gunshot, or even kill off the most idiotic and breed up a less stupid population. Though that latter isn't terribly likely though.

    Is anyone giving odds on America exceeding a million of death toll? No, seriously, I've got the price of a half-litre of beer to put on it, if the bookies are offering good prices.

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