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China Science

WHO Investigators Now Believe Coronavirus was 'Circulating Widely' in Wuhan in December (cnn.com) 162

"Investigators from the World Health Organization (WHO) looking into the origins of coronavirus in China have discovered signs the outbreak was much wider in Wuhan in December 2019 than previously thought," reports CNN, "and are urgently seeking access to hundreds of thousands of blood samples from the city that China has not so far let them examine." The lead investigator for the WHO mission, Peter Ben Embarek, told CNN in a wide-ranging interview that the mission had found several signs of the more wide-ranging 2019 spread, including establishing for the first time there were over a dozen strains of the virus in Wuhan already in December. The team also had a chance to speak to the first patient Chinese officials said had been infected, an office worker in his 40s, with no travel history of note, reported infected on December 8.

The slow emergence of more detailed data gathered on the WHO's long-awaited trip into China may add to concerns voiced by other scientists studying the origins of the disease that it may have been spreading in China long before its first official emergence in mid-December.

Embarek, who has just returned to Switzerland from Wuhan, told CNN: "The virus was circulating widely in Wuhan in December, which is a new finding."

The WHO food safety specialist added the team had been presented by Chinese scientists with 174 cases of coronavirus in and around Wuhan in December 2019. Of these 100 had been confirmed by laboratory tests, he said, and another 74 through the clinical diagnosis of the patient's symptoms. Embarek said it was possible this larger number — of likely severe cases that had been noticed by Chinese doctors early on — meant the disease could have hit an estimated 1,000-plus people in Wuhan that December. "We haven't done any modeling of that since," he said. "But we know ...in big ballpark figures... out of the infected population, about 15% end up severe cases, and the vast majority are mild cases."

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WHO Investigators Now Believe Coronavirus was 'Circulating Widely' in Wuhan in December

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  • by memory_register ( 6248354 ) on Sunday February 14, 2021 @02:44PM (#61063304)
    China would prefer to have the origin as shrouded as possible. If it really came from a lab, that looks pretty awful for them, but it if didn't is that any better at this point? The more information we uncover, the more incompetent the local, regional, and federal Chinese government looks.

    We will probably never know anything like the true patient zero and I think China likes it that way.
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

      There's the possibility that someone in one of their labs accidentally caught it from a bat. If that was the case, good luck convincing half the population it wasn't deliberately made.

      I don't really care how it started, we should count our blessings that is wasn't more deadly because the global response has been a pathetic joke. Hopefully we'll learn lessons from this but I'm not holding my breath since western governments don't seem to have learned anything much yet.

      • by Xylantiel ( 177496 ) on Sunday February 14, 2021 @04:08PM (#61063580)

        The evidence whether it was or was not deliberately made has nothing to do with tracing its origin. People who know about the technology available to "make" viruses can look at the genome compared to related viruses and conclude that it wasn't "made". So far the genome also indicates that SARS-CoV-2 isn't one of the viruses that was under study at the "labs" you refer to. That should be rechecked and scrutinized like any scientific result, but right now a "lab" origin makes no sense based on what has been measured about the genome of the virus.

        Also this report is saying that any previous conclusions based on the physical proximity of early cases to a particular place in Wuhan are unfounded because it appears that it was already circulating in Wuhan, and by the time of the "early cases" near the wet market and the virus lab, there were already hundreds of cases elsewhere in the city.

        If this were a murder investigation TV show, this would be the dramatic moment when the medical examiner announces that the victim was not actually killed in the prime suspect's apartment, but killed elsewhere and then brought there.

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

          I didn't say it was created in a lab, but bats could be an origin and so far as I know bats were used in labs in Wuhan. Hence my post.

        • by gizmo2199 ( 458329 ) on Sunday February 14, 2021 @05:50PM (#61063868) Homepage

          > People who know about the technology available to "make" viruses can look at the genome compared to related viruses and conclude that it wasn't "made"

          That's not true.

          "For more than a decade, The Wuhan lab scientists have been discovering coronaviruses in bats in southern China and bringing them back to their lab in Wuhan. There, they mix genes from different strains of these novel viruses to test their infectivity in human cells and lab animals."

          "Alina Chan pointed out that scientists there had discovered a virus that is more than 96% identical to the COVID-19 coronavirus (RaT13G) in 2013 in a mineshaft soon after three miners working there had died from a COVID-like illness. The WIV didn’t share these findings until 2020, even though the goal of such work, Chan pointed out, was supposedly to identify viruses with the potential to cause human illnesses and warn the world about them."

          "The Wuhan lab was looking for SARS-related virus, and this one was 20% different. "We thought it was interesting, but not high risk. So we didn’t do anything about it and put it in the freezer,” he told a reporter from Wired. It was only in 2020, the lab maintained, that they started looking into it once they realized its similarity to COVID-19. But Chan pointed to an online database showing that the WIV had been genetically sequencing the mine virus in 2017 and 2018, analyzing it in a way they had done in the past with other viruses in preparation for running experiments with them.
          https://www.bostonmagazine.com... [bostonmagazine.com]

          I mean, what are the odds that a lab in Wuhan is experimenting with a virus in 2017-2018 that's 96% similar to Covid (no other virus as similar has been found yet btw), mutating it and splicing it with other genetic material (using 'gain-of-function' research which we know they were doing) and their experiment didn't escape from that lab?

          • by Kernel Kurtz ( 182424 ) on Sunday February 14, 2021 @07:31PM (#61064068)

            Alina Chan pointed out that scientists there had discovered a virus that is more than 96% identical to the COVID-19 coronavirus (RaT13G) in 2013 in a mineshaft soon after three miners working there had died from a COVID-like illness.

            You and I are more than 96% identical to other primates, genetically speaking.

            Just sayin.

          • by Ksevio ( 865461 )

            I guess the odds are extremely high given that they were experimenting with viruses found in the wild there

      • Someone in a lab, could have GIVEN it to a bat.
    • Of course it was circulating widely in December, it was getting noticed already in November.

      https://abcnews.go.com/Politic... [go.com]

      I'd go so far as to speculate that by December it was on every continent on the globe save Antarctica. I won't speculate on how transparent the Chinese were about it early on, perhaps in time we will know more, but I don't think they could have stopped it in any case. It is entirely likely that "patient zero" had mild or no symptoms at all, as is the case for many. By the time the

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      Even presuming they were honest and competent, this thing would have spread before they figured out what was going on. It's not (or it *was* not) all *that* contagious, but it's sneaky, spreading by asymptomatic/presymptomatic individuals. By the time you figure out you have a problem it's a pretty big one, even if you know it's coming.

      The politicians over there had the same instincts politicians over here had: minimize the significance. The difference is that politicians over there have a lot more power

      • > It's not (or it *was* not) all *that* contagious

        Sars-Cov-2 is very contagious, especially indoors where many people are congregating, like a crowded restaurant, a bar, crowded public transit.

        • by hey! ( 33014 )

          In terms of basic reproduction rate, it's high but not sky-high like measles.

        • Before lockdowns it had an R0 of around 1.5 - 4. How can it be extremely contagious if (on average) the person who gets it only spreads it to 2-3 other people over a week's time?

          Is it worse that a typical flu? Sure. But it's not "that bad" like the measles or chicken pox which have an R0 of 10+

    • by Anonymous Coward on Sunday February 14, 2021 @04:25PM (#61063654)
      An illness with such a low number and ressembling potentially other respiratory illness which kills old people primarily, isn't going to be so easily detected *initially*. And what do we see here ? 174 heavy case. Even counting a 15% heavy/asymptomatic rate, that's 1000 cases. That is barely weeks if you have no special precaution and people get easily contaminated. heck in south Korea there was a super spreader event contaminating 100+ people in one day. I don't like China, but the article is slanted as if making it a big caught-in-the-cookie jar thing. No all it does is that hint is that it started slightly earlier.

      "The more information we uncover, the more incompetent the local, regional, and federal Chinese government looks. " as compared to who ? The US were warned and did DIDLY SQUAT. FUCK ALL Only the vaccination Program redeem the US. All I see at the moment is the US trying as much it cans to shift the blame on China "don't look at our 500K death, look at China how it badly handled it ! Incompetent ! 5K death ! 90K severe case ! And heck look at those 174 severe cases in December !".

      China's Covid 19 virus handling was not perfect, but compared to many western state it was great. They are utter dictator, having concentration camp, enemy of freedoms, and I pass many others, but "The more information we uncover, the more incompetent the local, regional, and federal Chinese government looks. " is utterly wrong. The more we learn, the more it is clear how badly other countries bungled it, in spite of plenty of warnings.
      • Agreed.

        Trump did not cause the COVID-19 virus, but he did cause the US reaction to it. 4% of the population getting over 20% of the infections is entirely on Trump.

        The history books should call it the "Trump Pandemic" or perhaps "Trump Flu" as that has as much descriptive relationship to the virus as the name "Spanish Flu" does to the virus that caused the 1918 pandemic.

    • The United States had people in Wuhan and China specifically to track these sorts of things ("fight them over there so we don't fight them over here"). They were pulled out when their entire department was slashed Saturday Night Massacre style.
    • Snowden, WMD-Iraq, police brutality. However at least the West has a fairly free press to spotlight these issues and try to correct. Two wrongs do not make a right but complicates the propaganda. China did lockdown, test trace, masked, ventilation much more diligently as suggested by their ability to re open. I work with a foreigner based in China running a factory, their attendance and work situation not PRC propaganda, real output.
    • by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

      China would prefer to have the origin as shrouded as possible. If it really came from a lab, that looks pretty awful for them, but it if didn't is that any better at this point? The more information we uncover, the more incompetent the local, regional, and federal Chinese government looks.

      We will probably never know anything like the true patient zero and I think China likes it that way.

      That's the problem - the Chinese need to "save face" overrode every other concern. The fact is, the Chinese government IS

    • China would prefer to have the origin as shrouded as possible. If it really came from a lab, that looks pretty awful for them, but it if didn't is that any better at this point?

      Why?

      I don't understand what you think the big scandal here is, that a novel Coronavirus was circulating a few months earlier than thought?

      I don't go to the doctor each time I have a bad cold, and if I did I wouldn't necessarily expect them to do take samples, do you expect it to be different in China?

      There seems to be this obsession with blaming China for the outbreak, and yes they could have done a lot of things a lot better, but so could most countries in the early stages of the outbreak when they had far

  • Well, duh. (Score:5, Insightful)

    by BAReFO0t ( 6240524 ) on Sunday February 14, 2021 @02:47PM (#61063310)

    "Our" Covid is just one strain of many, *many* that naturally circulated in that area since forever. Most of them pretty harmless, or never jumping to humans.

    It was always a bad idea to eat bats. Because they got an extreme immune system, that allows them to not get sick, even if full of viruses and everything. So they are the ultimate Typhoid Marys. (Can't find the PBS Eons episode on it right now.)

    The lesson is, that something like this can always happen... hell, with some new strains being worse now, it *did* happen, multiple times, in a single year... And just learn some fucking hygiene and don't eat of fuck any monkeys or bats of pangolins, Mickey!
    And if some country can't teach their population basic hygiene standards, close the damn borders. Including to countries leaving their borders to them open.

    • The lesson is, that something like this can always happen... hell, with some new strains being worse now, it *did* happen, multiple times, in a single year... And just learn some fucking hygiene and don't eat of fuck any monkeys or bats of pangolins, Mickey! And if some country can't teach their population basic hygiene standards, close the damn borders

      That's right, it *did* happen, multiple times in a single year... there's a UK strain, and a South African strain... yet you don't launch into stuff about

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      The Chinese government has been shutting down these kinds of vendors. It looks like wet markets in general are on the way out, the issue is that the transition is costly because it means refrigeration is needed instead, both for storage and for transport. So it can't happen overnight.

    • by Entrope ( 68843 )

      I told Ozzy that biting the head off that bat was a bad idea, I did. But did he listen? No, of course not!

      Because TVs don't work like that and he had bitten the bat's head off the week before. But he probably caused some zoonotic disease!

    • It was always a bad idea to eat bats.

      I wonder what all those southerners were eating when America created H1N1?

    • The point here is that the association with the wet market is likely coincidental. The first identified cases were physically near there, but it now appears that at the same time there were hundreds of cases elsewhere in the city. So you have made a strong conclusion about the role of "eating bats" based on a supposition that this report says turns out to be unfounded.
  • by crunchygranola ( 1954152 ) on Sunday February 14, 2021 @03:11PM (#61063374)

    CNN is choosing to play up the data brought back by the WHO team as a novel revelation, but it really isn't. With the detailed genomic tree of COVID samples we have known since March that before the pandemic was even identified in late December it had split into multiple major variants, and that the origin of the pandemic was in mid-November, about a month before its identification, and that at the time of first identification it was already in France, Italy, and probably other countries due to international air travel. The very high R-nought values, and low doubling times, for the early pandemic that were estimated by February indicated that the number of cases before the end of December must of been in the hundreds of thousands.

    • by kot-begemot-uk ( 6104030 ) on Sunday February 14, 2021 @03:36PM (#61063474) Homepage
      I was going to say the same.

      In December the Virus was already in Europe. UK and/or Belgium and/or Holland. Genetic distance models are extremely good in tracing this kind of stuff. They now have so much data to work with that they can pinpoint the early "country patient zero" events with 2-3 days precision.

      In any case, all of these ignore the elephant in the corner of the room. The positive sample from Barcelona sewerage plant the week after Mobile World Congress 2019 - February. 10 months earlier.

    • must of been

      "Must've been"

      Or "must have been"

      It's really jarring when a supposedly educated person spells like a Not Particularly Bright Five Year Old. Makes me wonder what else you got wrong in your post....

  • by HetMes ( 1074585 ) on Sunday February 14, 2021 @03:13PM (#61063382)
    ...is the new "That's when the shit hit the fan."
  • I'm glad to see that the lab leak hypothesis is finally gaining traction. Suggesting such a thing should be investigated made you a pariah and castigated as a right wing nut job no matter your lefty cred. I'm crossing my fingers that people will do some introspection and realize that our ability to make sense is being eroded by tribal cult ideology.
    • Despite all of the damning circumstantial evidence that even saying it was "probable" covid originated from a lab leak in China, otherwise intelligent people dismiss all rational arguments as a "conspiracy theory".

      I mean I wouldn't have believed it had I not seen seen it. That in 2020 there would be a global pandemic after numerous warnings of the possibility of just such a pandemic starting in a lab, that such a pandemic would basically shut-down the major economies of the world for over a year, kill milli

      • This is why the "free speech, but for my views only, other people are bad and deserve to be censored" attitude will always come home to bite the hand that feeds it.

  • When we started hearing about this virus, I had recently finished reading the book World War Z. The way in which the CCP has managed information about this deadly, contagious virus has always eerily echoed that book's portrayal of Chinese government action.

  • Of course it was... (Score:2, Informative)

    by Cochonou ( 576531 )
    It was already circulating in France https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europ... [slashdot.org] >since November !
    At this point it seems quite clear that Wuhan was the first major outbreak, but that the virus was already circulating at low levels in many countries in 2020.
    • I obviously borked the html. Original link: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europ... [aa.com.tr]
    • There were some people who studied satellite photos of hospital parking lots and concluded, based on the number of parked vehicles, that something was going on in Hubei Province as far back as August of 2019. [msn.com] They also noticed a spike in internet searches on Baidu for "dry cough" and "diarrhea" around the same time--two early symptoms of COVID-19.
    • by PPH ( 736903 )

      By November/December 2019, the QAnon retards were already wondering whether CBRN masks would stop whatever it was. I'd say they guessed right this time.

    • We know that can't be true since Covid is so lethal that had community spread been earlier Covid deaths (for example in Italy) would have been seen much earlier as well. Especially where there weren't health protocols in place like masks and social distancing.

      Italy didn't start seeing Covid deaths in large numbers until late February, 2020.

      • by dryeo ( 100693 )

        Were the early strains that lethal? Or perhaps it was evolving even back then, the summary mentions over a dozen strains circulating in Wuhan in December, quite possibly most of those strains were milder.

  • The most straight forward origin story I have ever seen is one that is considered a "conspiracy theory," but 100% compatible with the realities on the ground in Wuhan.

    The virus was being studied in the lab. They were doing some tests on it to see what impact it could have on humans. Some of those tests make it more virulent. This is not the same thing as creating a bioweapon, it's legitimate science if foolish science. It broke down because the PRC underpays these researchers and there is a wet market down

    • And please, STFU with demands for evidence or citations. You're not going to get one from the PRC anymore than you'd get evidence of the Holocaust from the Germans

      We don't need evidence from the Germans that the Holocaust happened, we have a lot of other evidence.

      Your position that no evidence is needed at all however is hardly the same, and is frankly stupid.

      • Your position that no evidence is needed at all however is hardly the same, and is frankly stupid.

        As I saidYou're not going to get one from the PRC anymore than you'd get evidence of the Holocaust from the Germans if they'd fought the war to an armistice

        Did your strawman consent before you started using it to go after my argument?

        • You don't really need to rationalize why you have no evidence.

          The end result is the same and we will file it appropriately.

  • by Snotnose ( 212196 ) on Sunday February 14, 2021 @04:14PM (#61063602)
    China arrested the guy who first spread the alarm. That guy later died due to Covid. This was a year ago.

    China denied the WHO basic, early data. This was last week.

    Anything coming out of China regarding the source is highly suspect, to say the least. And to be honest at this point I don't trust the WHO much more than the Chinese government at this point.
    • Anything coming out of China regarding the source is highly suspect

      And yet what came out of China agreed with what the WHO said here: That an excessive number of pneumonia cases were identified in hospitals in December. This was known back in March, it's the reason the guy who first spread the alarm started looking into a novel virus strain in the first place.

  • They're only beating around the bush now after China hasn't given them all the data they were asking for. Some of the investigators are now trying to save their faces, their careers and their relationship to China, but they were played exactly as was predicted. One has to sympathise with the investigators' dilemma. At first do they get stuck in quarantine for a long time, to then not get all their answers, and to go home and present findings, which say it could have come from anywhere. This moment then beco

  • Harvard Study (Score:5, Informative)

    by Dan East ( 318230 ) on Sunday February 14, 2021 @05:37PM (#61063826) Journal

    The Harvard study showed an increase in both physical traffic to Wuhan hospitals (from satellite imagery) and in search terms for symptoms related to COVID, beginning in August 2019.
    https://dash.harvard.edu/bitst... [harvard.edu]

    This study was "refuted" to some degree, by medical personnel in China who gave various alternative causes or flat-out denying the increase of physical traffic at the hospitals, or the misuse of Chinese words for the symptoms. However it is looking more and more like the study indeed shows when the initial COVID activity was increasing.

  • I got it in mid November of 2019, in the US. Of course it was already out in December! Most likely transferred to me via either Las Vegas or San Francisco tech conferences.

    Worst thing I ever had, since nobody knew what it was and eventually told me it was just a cold. Treated with cough medicine only. But six months later, antibody tests proved what it was.

    • I got it in mid November 2019 in the UAE. There were some Chinese tourists at the next table in a restaurant, who were coughing their lungs out and of course the next week, I was unbelievably sick.
      • February 2020 I got it, and confirmed with antibody test. I was on a train to Paris and a guy opposite me was coughing his head off. Worst sickness i've had since i was a child.

  • by flyingfsck ( 986395 ) on Sunday February 14, 2021 @08:14PM (#61064164)
    The UK version of the Covid19 virus is so contageous, it reached New Zealand, an island state, on the other side of the globe, with a closed border. I won't be surprised if it spread there via the internet connection of a Windows laptop computer.
  • Met Panamanian who returned from China business trip in July. He was sick after. Doctors couldn’t diagnose. Finally hospitalized until he recovered. His symptoms mirror image SARS-CoV-2.

    He is adamant China was infected prior to Wuhan. He still doesn’t know if he had COVID. The Dr. didn’t test him in July for COVID. But he recognizes the same symptoms COVID patients describe as exactly what he had after his trip to China.

  • I know this sounds like a Chinese-made hoax, but there was a recent (feb. 10, 2021) study by a reputable French laboratory (INSERM) showing the virus was already spreading in France in November 2019 [inserm.fr].

    At the end of the day we will probably never know where it comes from, maybe the French brought it to China during the military olympic games of october 2019 [www.rtl.fr] or maybe they brought it back to France from China... Go figure.

The unfacts, did we have them, are too imprecisely few to warrant our certitude.

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