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Medicine

Lancet Study Finds 40% of US COVID-19 Deaths Could Have Been Avoided (slate.com) 337

phalse phace shares a report from Slate: The British medical journal the Lancet, on Wednesday, published a damning assessment of Donald Trump's presidency and its impact on Americans' health, concluding that 40 percent of the nearly 500,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. over the past year were avoidable. The journal came to the conclusion by comparing the U.S. health outcomes on the coronavirus -- the country leads the world in COVID deaths and confirmed cases with more than 27 million -- with the weighted average of other G-7 nations. So it's not a wildly abstract conclusion to draw: the U.S. could have saved hundreds of thousands of lives if it had just performed similarly to its economic peers.

The report assailed Trump for his response to the pandemic, but emphasized that the disastrous response to the virus's spread was the result of years of destructive public policy decisions on health that extended well beyond the Trump years. From the Lancet: "Many of the cases and deaths were avoidable. Instead of galvanizing the U.S. populace to fight the pandemic, President Trump publicly dismissed its threat (despite privately acknowledging it), discouraged action as infection spread, and eschewed international cooperation. His refusal to develop a national strategy worsened shortages of personal protective equipment and diagnostic tests. President Trump politicized mask-wearing and school reopenings and convened indoor events attended by thousands, where masks were discouraged and physical distancing was impossible."

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Lancet Study Finds 40% of US COVID-19 Deaths Could Have Been Avoided

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  • by gweihir ( 88907 ) on Saturday February 13, 2021 @06:08AM (#61058762)

    Trump has an absolutely impressive death-count that he is responsible for. I guess he felt he had to compensate somehow for starting no wars.

    • by niks42 ( 768188 ) on Saturday February 13, 2021 @06:20AM (#61058772)
      The Lancet have recommended a UK Public Inquiry .... https://www.thelancet.com/jour... [thelancet.com]
      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Saturday February 13, 2021 @07:00AM (#61058812) Homepage Journal

        I don't know why, public enquiries tend to be whitewashes. The government limits to scope to protect themselves, and then tells us "lessons must be learned" before throwing the final report in the shredder.

        The UK is basically fucked because there is no accountability for anything. Homicidal incompetence and corruption, and no consequences.

        • Homicidal incompetence and corruption, and no consequences.

          Ah, glad to see that they managed to keep at least the important parts of their former empire. ;)

        • by malkavian ( 9512 )

          Except they don't. Press releases by Government officials may put a slant on things, but the investigations are pretty thorough.
          The Lancet was always going to recommend an inquiry, and would have no matter who'd done what, and rightly so. Without investigating what flaws and lacks there are in staffing levels, supply chains, axioms on which to make decisions and so on, things would never improve. That's essentially adding a layer of science and improvement to the process. It'll be tough on anyone holdin

      • So did the Lancet ever study the preventable deaths if they hadn't published the infamous "vaccines cause autism" study that was later retracted? Because I think it's only fair that they clean their own house first, no? I mean, they only kicked off a global vaccine-denialism movement...

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      How about doing the WHO next, and the several governments who followed their advice? Like our Dutch government who said wearing face masks was counter-productive to the effort of stopping the virus. Both the WHO and our government later changed their position on this, the latter stating that their earlier advice was "because they feared a shortage of masks". Meaning they were afraid their complete and utter lack of preparedness would be glaringly obvious. And none of that "how could we be prepared?" non
  • Dead horse (Score:2, Insightful)

    by fred911 ( 83970 )

    WTF.. that ship has sailed, hind sight is 20/20. Exactly how POTUS could have prevented 40% of covid death is subjective. That ship has sailed.

    What isn't subjective is why, when our President told us the priority was to solve all the issues involving the pandemic, our legislators are distracted by beating that dead horse instead of focusing on the main tenant of the platform of his campaign.

    Do something that provides utility for the people that elected you, the fucking horse is dead. Get your fucking prior

    • Re:Dead horse (Score:5, Insightful)

      by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Saturday February 13, 2021 @07:03AM (#61058820)

      Analysing the mistakes of the past is not beating a dead horse. Unless it is you are an anti-intellectual and go out of your way not to learn from them.

    • Re:Dead horse (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Brandano ( 1192819 ) on Saturday February 13, 2021 @07:04AM (#61058824)

      Because if an example is not set another president, or even the same if you are so stupid to re-elect him the next time, could do the same. Would your attitude be the same if, for example, Obama had rallied a crowd to march on the capitol? And if the Obama crowd had injured hundreds of police officers in the process, etc? If you think something is unfair, think how it would be unfair if it was applied the other way round.

      • by fred911 ( 83970 )

        ''Would your attitude be the same if''

        ''Joe Biden and Kamala Harris signaled that there were four urgent, out-of-the-gate priorities'' Covid, the economy, racial equity and climate change http://www.bu.edu/articles/202... [bu.edu]

        Which one says spend time and effort on a second impeachment, of a President no longer in office, because it will benefit the people that elected us better than the above priorities?

        There are more important priorities that actually effect people, even owning the majority in both houses, are

        • by Phact ( 4649149 )

          Hey Genius! Biden didn't impeach trump, and has nothing to do with the impeachment proceedings. Those Are His Administrations priorities. Go find another talking point you can't grasp, this ones a dry hole.

        • Re:Dead horse (Score:4, Insightful)

          by Fallen Kell ( 165468 ) on Saturday February 13, 2021 @12:47PM (#61059474)
          Sorry to jump in on you here, but unlike the "Trump" view that the President is "king" and in charge of everything, the USA actually is a nation with 3 separate and equal branches of government, the executive, the legislative, and the judiciary. The President is only in charge of one of those, and has no control over the others.

          Now, Trump tried his hardest to exert control over the others because from a business world where he was from (and more specifically a private business world without being beholden to stockholders and executive boards), the president is effectively king. But that is not what the US government is and was designed SPECIFICALLY TO PREVENT THIS. The legislature can do whatever they want, not only what the President wants. They can even enact laws without the consent of the President and above and over the President's objections. THAT is the government the USA has, not the dictatorship of a monarchy or military dictator. The government as a whole doesn't jump and ask how high or for how long when the President says to do so in the USA (a portion will, but not all of it, and that is the whole point of the setup).

          So, now that you have a 2nd grader's Civic's lesson on the USA government and that there are three separate but equal branches, you will then know that the President's agenda, isn't the same as the government's agenda. And that a branch of the government that was just under assault a couple weeks ago might feel that they have different priorities when hundreds of police were injured and some killed protecting that branch of government from a mob that the head of another branch of the government created (and there is no denying that he created it because he tweeted about it for weeks to get people to come).
    • So letting ex-presidents try to install themselves as un-elected tyrants, and nearly murder congress is cool? I guess I didn't get that memo.
    • Re:Dead horse (Score:4, Interesting)

      by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Saturday February 13, 2021 @10:58AM (#61059204) Homepage Journal

      WTF.. that ship has sailed, hind sight is 20/20.

      It's not hindsight. We knew at the time what he was doing wrong.

      Exactly how POTUS could have prevented 40% of covid death is subjective.

      We knew that at the time, too. For instance, he could have instituted a quarantine requirement for passengers returning from China instead of simply waving them past customs if they were a US national.

      our legislators are distracted by beating that dead horse instead of focusing on the main tenant of the platform of his campaign.

      That's "tenet". Don't use words you don't understand. It only proves that you talk without knowing what you're talking about.

      Do something that provides utility for the people that elected you

      You mean like preventing insurrectionist and general piece of shit Cheeto Mussolini from ever holding office again? That would have provided utility. Unfortunately, Republicans have no fucking morals whatsoever.

  • Comparing to G7 (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Reaper9889 ( 602058 ) on Saturday February 13, 2021 @06:35AM (#61058786)

    It seems odd to use G7 here, since so many of them blew it (as compared to countries outside G7):
    Italy got hard hit in the beginning due to being one of the first hit spots - this aint really their fault, but they are worse off than most others due to it.
    France are unusually much in favor of homeotherapy and against vacs. They have done okish so far, but I fear they will get worse now.
    UK has Boris, basically similar to Trump. Basically, everything is done a bit too late.
    US had Trump as the summary highlights (and are unusually much against vacs, like France, but for typically more religious reasons).
    Canada, Germany and Japan did more or less ok.

    Like, the average of other devolped countries are much better than this.

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      It's pretty amazing that taking the average of the G7 still gives 40%. Each of the developed countries should compare themselves to New Zealand, Australia and Japan, and plan to do much better next time.

    • All those countries did horribly compared to every single East Asian country, by the way. Even though the virus started in East Asia.

  • by hunter44102 ( 890157 ) on Saturday February 13, 2021 @07:06AM (#61058828)
    In Ohio at one point 70% of all Covid cases were in Nursing Homes. Another article said many of the remaining cases were in Hospitals. My dad was in a room by himself but still got it. Only contact was the caregiver. Also we now know that Covid was spreading silently as early as Nov/December - way before Trump knew anything. It reached critical mass and early spread before a single plan could be in place. Congress was too busy trying to impeach so they didn't do anything. Also the predecessors - there was no plan ever because if there was there would be stockpiles of masks. They were begging home owners for N95s from home projects. So -nobody- was prepared and nobody can tell me what could have been done differently for nursing homes. Also its real easy playing Monday morning qb but with the information we had at the time, nobody would have done anything differently.
  • > the country leads the world in COVID deaths and confirmed cases with more than 27 million -- with the weighted average of other G-7 nations

    That's the thing with statistics. They can be crafted to produce any conclusion you want.

    Looking at this overview, at the time of writing, US is listed 9th when sorted by "Deaths / 1M pop", or 7th if you ignore the micro states. Belgium has about 25% more deaths per population.

    https://www.worldometers.info/... [worldometers.info]

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      I guess "there are seven to nine countries worse than us" is a step up from the usual "well, China is worse!"

  • How much blame goes to the medical establishment?

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/2... [cnbc.com]
    https://www.hopkinsmedicine.or... [hopkinsmedicine.org]

    Makary defines a death due to medical error as one that is caused by inadequately skilled staff, error in judgment or care, a system defect or a preventable adverse effect. This includes computer breakdowns, mix-ups with the doses or types of medications administered to patients and surgical complications that go undiagnosed.

    “Currently the CDC uses a deaths collection system that only tallies causes of death occurring from diseases, morbid conditions, and injuries,” Makary stated in a letter urging the CDC to change the way it collects the nation’s vital health statistics.

    “It’s the system more than the individuals that is to blame,” Makary said. The U.S. patient-care study, which was released in 2016, explored death-rate data for eight consecutive years. The researchers discovered that based on a total of 35,416,020 hospitalizations, there was a pooled incidence rate of 251,454 deaths per year — or about 9.5 percent of all deaths — that stemmed from medical error.

    Now, two years later, Makary said he hasn’t seen the needle move much.

    “Medical-care workers are dedicated, caring people,” said Chris Jerry, “but they’re human. And human beings make mistakes.” According to him, the day Emily was given her fatal dose, the hospital pharmacy was short-staffed, the pharmacy computer was not properly working, and there was a backlog of physician orders.

    Afterward Chris said he discovered that pharmacy technicians, rather than well-trained and educated pharmacists, are compounding nearly all of the IV medications for patients. And many states have no requirements, or proof of competency, for these pharmacy technicians.

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      The practice of medicine has a *lot* of catching up to do with modern professional practice, and that failure is the third biggest killer (fourth in 2020 behind COVID). But it's not really that different in the comparator countries.

  • The Lancet has proven itself untrustworthy and highly political. The Surgisphere debacle proved exactly where they stand on the Pandemic, and it's for making political hay, not science.

    I'll skip this study and encourage people to look elsewhere for actual science. Judging by the comments here it sounds like not much has changed.

    And, yes, a quarter million Americans probably died from politics and profit this year. Just to expect to find out WHY in the Lancet.

  • I gotta wonder... (Score:2, Interesting)

    by TwoUtes ( 1075403 )
    If "they" are really concerned about stopping this virus, why don't/didn't they put a stop to all international travel? The original insult came from China, the recent virulent variants are from the UK, South Africa, Brazil. I'm no epidemiologist, but it seems to me that instead of worrying about church gatherings and birthday parties, they should stop more virus from getting from nation to nation in the first place and let what's going around in each country burn itself out.
  • So it's not a wildly abstract conclusion to draw: the U.S. could have saved hundreds of thousands of lives if it had just performed similarly to its economic peers.

    The USA is a federation of 50 semi-sovereign states. The President literally doesn't have the constitutional authority to impose lockdowns for something like COVID-19. If Florida wants to remain open, there is nothing that the President can do. If Cuomo wants to stuff retirement homes with infected, he has little authority to stop him. The only a

  • by lorinc ( 2470890 ) on Saturday February 13, 2021 @09:22AM (#61058990) Homepage Journal

    I wonder if the pandemic significantly killed more Trump voters and if, had he taken it seriously and provided the right response, he could have had the few missing votes in the key states. Did he just lose because he killed his supporters?

    • by h33t l4x0r ( 4107715 ) on Saturday February 13, 2021 @09:49AM (#61059040)
      Sure, if he had appointed an expert as covid-czar and stayed out of it back in Jan 2020, he would have saved countless lives and he would still be president. But he's a narcissistic sociopath so that was never even an option.
    • The problem with that is the reasoning that only his supporters were affected by his ineptitude. The virus does not respect political alignments. It also does not account for those that may have survived and may have changed their support.
  • ... once your guys get elected, there's magically nothing the president can do [cnbc.com] ...
    • Yes because the new guy can automatically and quickly fix everything the other guy did. Also your statement is ingenious and a dishonest strawman. Biden said there is little effect that may be realized in the next few months. He did not say "forever". If Trump was still President he would do still nothing about the situation. He has the best medical treatment; everyone in the country can fend for themselves.
  • Yes, many deaths could have been prevented. But anyone who thinks it's Donald Trump's fault doesn't understand how the US federal system of governance works and is also trying to remove individual responsibility. In the US, states have most of the power in this situation. Case in point - New York State and Andrew Cuomo and California and Newsom. When Trump exercised the little power the feds had, which was to stop flights from China, he was called xenophobic by none other than Biden. Rather than go on
  • According to Our World in Data [ourworldindata.org], the per-capita deaths in the UK are 1,716 per million versus 1,450 in the US. They might want to address that before telling other countries we're doing a bad job.

    For those who like data, here are some others: Italy, 1,540; France: 1,240; Sweden: 1,230; Switzerland: 1,130; Austria: 900; Canada: 560. This doesn't account for how different countries decide what to report as a Covid death so take the numbers with a grain of salt.

    I mean, the US might be doing a terrible job. Or i

    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      by nevermindme ( 912672 )
      The health of the population age 60-100 before covid has more influence than politicians. The splits by genetic heritage are just indications of how many people who were one item away from very sickly before this started. None of that is really dependent on economics or lifestyle outside of living on the streets or in a crack home.

      The first world drags sickly people into that age range, the third world until quite recently did not. Europe until the 1920 killed off the weak very quickly also. Ther

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