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NASA Space The Almighty Buck

The Orion Spacecraft Is Now 15 Years Old and Has Flown Into Space Just Once (arstechnica.com) 185

schwit1 shares a report from Ars Technica: Since that time, according to The Planetary Society's Casey Dreier, NASA has spent $23.7 billion developing the Orion spacecraft. This does not include primary costs for the vehicle's Service Module, which provides power and propulsion, as it is being provided by the European Space Agency. For this money, NASA has gotten a bare-bones version of Orion that flew during the Exploration Flight Test-1 mission in 2014. The agency has also gotten the construction of an Orion capsule -- which also does not have a full life support system -- that will be used during the uncrewed Artemis I mission due to be flown in 12 to 24 months. So over its lifetime, and for $23.7 billion, the Orion program has produced:

- Development of Orion spacecraft
- Exploration Flight Test-1 basic vehicle
- The Orion capsule to be used for another test flight
- Work on capsules for subsequent missions

Obviously, that is not nothing. But it is far from a lot, even for a big government program. To see how efficiently this money could theoretically have been spent, let's use an extreme example. SpaceX is generally considered one of the most efficient space companies. Founded in 2002, the company has received funding from NASA, the Department of Defense, and private investors. Over its history, we can reliably estimate that SpaceX has expended a total of $16 billion to $20 billion on all of its spaceflight endeavors. Consider what that money has bought:

- Development of Falcon 1, Falcon 9, and Falcon Heavy rockets
- Development of Cargo Dragon, Crew Dragon, and Cargo Dragon 2 spacecraft
- Development of Merlin, Kestrel, and Raptor rocket engines
- Build-out of launch sites at Vandenberg (twice), Kwajalein Atoll, Cape Canaveral, and Kennedy Space Center
- 105 successful launches to orbit
- 20 missions to supply International Space Station, two crewed flights
- Development of vertical take off, vertical landing, rapid reuse for first stages
- Starship and Super Heavy rocket development program
- Starlink Internet program (with 955 satellites on orbit, SpaceX is largest satellite operator in the world)

To sum up, SpaceX delivered all of that for billions of dollars less than what NASA has spent on the Orion program since its inception.

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The Orion Spacecraft Is Now 15 Years Old and Has Flown Into Space Just Once

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  • State Politics (Score:5, Insightful)

    by nagora ( 177841 ) on Thursday December 17, 2020 @05:12AM (#60840510)

    How much of Orion's effort has been wasted trying to spread the contracts around 50 states?

    • by Travco ( 1872216 )
      Most
    • Re:State Politics (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Rei ( 128717 ) on Thursday December 17, 2020 @07:02AM (#60840658) Homepage

      That's the problem. NASA is not allowed to be efficient. It cannot shut down facilities or projects it does not need. It cannot make massive staffing cuts. It cannot choose the most efficient way to implement new things. It has to spend vast amounts of money, on specific things it was told to spend it on, in the specific way it was told to spend it.

      • by hey! ( 33014 )

        And getting Orion to fly -- for the sake of saying you've flown it -- would be even more inefficient.

        The original program Orion was designed for -- Constellation -- was cancelled. Orion was designed to carry astronauts to the Moon. The program has been kept alive at great expense to carry astronauts to the Moon in the Artemis program. The vehicle has little practical use except for that. It's larger than needed to ferry astronauts to orbit but it's too small to work in.

        NASA spending is like Brexit. A mod

      • by cusco ( 717999 )

        That's the problem with letting a herd of lawyers become politicians and pack of generals and admirals set priorities and budgets for what should be an engineering project.

    • NASA Politics (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Excelcia ( 906188 ) <slashdot@excelcia.ca> on Thursday December 17, 2020 @08:11AM (#60840800) Homepage Journal

      Go a step further and ask how much of ALL of NASA's (and I'm going to use this word generously) "efforts" have been wasted? My direct interest with NASA started with the shtutle. Like most everyone else, I had a love affair with them in the 80s over the shuttle and Voyager and all the rest. I resisted disillusionment with the revelations after Challenger. But then came the Mars Climate Orbiter, Hubble, Columbia, Curiosity, SLS. Debacle after debacle. Which makes you realize it's endemic in NASA's trough-eating self-protective pork barrel mentality, and so you go back and revisit the love affair you had with the Shuttle and realize that was all, one hundred percent smoke and mirrors. The shuttle was a terrible program, and the whole infrastructure around it was designed to mask how truly awful it was and to mask the amount of money poured into it. It was not a success - they lost 40% of their fleet and 4% of their crew in preventable circumstances. Both investigations (seventeen years apart) resulted in findings of terrible decision making and both said the problems at NASA were systemic.

      So now we are giving them more billions than every private spacecraft builder combined for SLS and Orion, which are years late and triple the cost. SLS at its best case scenario will, by design, provide no new technology because it's actually just reusing the worst parts of the already terrible shuttle program.

      And you know what? Boeing's Starliner is just the same. Of the two "selected" return-to-space winners, it is the more expensive by a factor of two, and was NASA's "we don't like SpaceX" pick, because NASA executives despise SpaceX. To justify the cost, NASA called Starliner the contingency - it was the less riskier of the two. Really, Boeing was selected and given twice the cash and and then told get it done before and better than Crew Dragon. Every time there were conflicting NASA resources that both projects needed, Boeing was scheduled first. Any time SpaceX called up needing something, NASA caled Boeing and said hey, SpaceX is asking for this, you need to ask for it too so we can schedule you first. Starliner was the project that NASA had the most hand's on with, and... what a shock... the project they almost lost on their first test flight. In fact, they would have lost it if another, mission-failing bug hadn't shown up first and made them scared enough to look over all the rest of the software with a fine-toothed comb. They failed the mission, almost lost the capsule, and then came really close to STILL sticking people on it in an effort at having them finish before SpaceX. It was only going over NASA's head that pulled the plug on declaring all the test flight's mission goals complete and sticking people on it.

      It's not the police that need to be defunded. It's NASA. They are just intrinsically terrible.

      • right? The private companies are taking the hard work NASA did (and your tax dollars) and using it to make money. Those private companies have little to no R&D costs compared to NASA because all the unprofitable stuff was done for them.
      • You only compare NASA vs SpaceX. How much additional money is being wasted in redundancy with the competitors? How many of these companies will survive to profitability? I think it is likely more appropriate to have VC money paying for space exploration, but that has a real impact on what comes out of the process. Technologies produced by Musk are not going to be made available to other companies like NASA's were. Ultimately, this will mean that space is owned by the private sector, and little of the b
    • by ahodgson ( 74077 )

      Since that is the entire purpose of the manned space program, I assume nearly all of it.

    • Government is naturally Risk Adverse, while Successful companies are much more tolerant towards risks.

      SpaceX just blew up a prototype of their Starship and they are calling it rather successful test, because many of the key elements passed. If this was don't by the government this would had been considered a full failure. Because the ship exploded. So Government jobs often require more time and money to make sure they are not wasting time and money, then if they just allowed mistakes to happen so they ca

  • Good comparison (Score:5, Insightful)

    by war4peace ( 1628283 ) on Thursday December 17, 2020 @05:13AM (#60840512)

    However, it's all about the incentive here.
    NASA develops the Orion with little to no incentive except "must perform the work". Money keeps coming, there's no specter of profit loss or bankruptcy, etc.
    SpaceX is privately owned, the company has strong motivations to be efficient. They are in a competitive environment, they need to make a profit, they need to stand out, etc. Plenty reasons to spend money carefully and efficiently.

    • by Travco ( 1872216 )
      The number one advantage that SpaceX has over NASA is a director who believes in the mission
      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by pitdingo ( 649676 )

        No, the number one advantage SpaceX has over NASA is it is not run by government idiots. I know the word "idiots" is redundant.

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Going back to the Moon should be a pretty big incentive for the engineers and scientists involved.

      The problem is the way NASA is funded, never enough, constantly shifting goals, and forced to contract stuff out on political grounds. I'm sure the people working there would love to get on with it if they could.

      SpaceX is impressive but remember that when properly funded and with a clear goal NASA went from basically nothing to man on the Moon in a decade. Back then they couldn't just buy in a computer system t

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        Interesting that this was modded "troll". Rabid SpaceX fan or NASA hater?

      • I'm sure the people working there would love to get on with it if they could.

        I'm sure competent people who work for NASA could apply for a position for SpaceX and have their dreams met. But it's not only a competence thing, it's also a mentality thing.

    • Re:Good comparison (Score:5, Interesting)

      by LostMyAccount ( 5587552 ) on Thursday December 17, 2020 @08:20AM (#60840818)

      Musk is absolutely driven by the idea of human space flight and his work with Space-X is oriented towards making it much more practical and with the ambition of interplanetary colonization.

      NASA is at best half-hearted about human space flight. Until Space-X, they were the only game in town and had a legacy of manned space flight, so, let's keep that going and kind of spend money on it without actually moving the needle.

      Further, NASA has a loud contingent of people absolutely opposed to human space flight. Some of this is logical argument about the problems/challenges of human space flight, and usually this veers into "we can do 10 robot missions for 1 manned mission". And I'm sure some of this group is making this argument cynically because they want the resources for their own pet science project and don't want to see their mission deprecated because all the money got spent on some subset of the manned space mission technology.

      It's like a family argument where half the family wants to spend the entire food budget on ingredients for 7 elaborate home made recipes, the other half of the family wants 4 low-budget home made recipes and 3 nice dinners out. The end result is neither, you get 4-5 middling recipes and 2-3 fast food meals.

      • To increase the specificity of your analogy: The first week the home chef side of the family buys 3 of 7 expensive ingredients, doesn't buy the rest, and they go bad. Two weeks later they buy 4 more, but again won't commit to buying the rest. At the end of the year they have spent thousands on ingredients that were never used, which in turn meant they never had the budget to go out either. And the person doing the shopping sets arbitrary constraints on where they will buy certain items because they "like th
      • Manned space flight is about PR not science. Any idiot knows this. Just look at Voyager and the wealth of knowledge that project produced and is producing.

        Going back to the moon or going to mars is a waste of money. But hey tell the homeless how that's going to improve their lives.
    • Uber would disagree with you.

      Simple fact is the market for this work is who, yes the government. So stop the bullshitting here. Government contracts are fat contracts. Talk to any defense contractor.

      This is about financing pure and simple. People dumped money into SpaceX. NASA's budgets were flat.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday December 17, 2020 @05:15AM (#60840514)
    I see it as well on my side of the pond. The amount of money sunk in ESA is a travesty. The agency is manned by either newbies who never built a spacecraft, or old stubborn farts, who treat every little commercial mission as a scientific one. Common to both, is that they have an obsessive focus on sandbagging and excessive margins. Margins which can only be achieved by purchasing space grade components: Components many orders of magnitude more expensive than automotive ones, and with only a tiny fraction of the manufacturing volume to justify their reliability data. And then the national delegations, who use ESA to funnel money into their own national space sectors. The companies then use the clout of the national delegation to justify a minimum effort delivered. Political decisions...

    I'm glad to see companies like SpaceX starting to shake things up, even at the expense of my own job.
  • by bradley13 ( 1118935 ) on Thursday December 17, 2020 @05:16AM (#60840516) Homepage

    In his analysis of the Orion program's costs, however, Dreier does not heap scorn on Orion, NASA, or the spacecraft's primary contractor, Lockheed. "I tend to take a slightly more sympathetic view toward Orion," he said. "Its cost and pace are a feature, not a bug."

    The cost and pace are a feature? Of course they are! Years, indeed decades of money flowing into certain Congressional districts. In return, lots of campaign donations, and well-paid positions for certain key ex-bureaucrats.

    The purpose of Orion is not to fly. The purpose of Orion is to funnel money into the right pockets. If Orion were fast and efficient, the opportunities for graft would be drastically reduced.

    • by Samantha Wright ( 1324923 ) on Thursday December 17, 2020 @07:00AM (#60840652) Homepage Journal
      I suspect the bean-counters were (and always have been) horrified that SpaceX has had any significant success. It exposes ULA and the entire "Commercial Spaceflight" brand for the shell game it is. It's deeply saddening that NASA's flagship initiatives have deteriorated into annuities for neo-aristocrats.
      • by jlv ( 5619 )

        It's deeply saddening that NASA's flagship initiatives have deteriorated into annuities for neo-aristocrats.

        They didn't deteriorate into that; many of them literally started that way.

    • by JBMcB ( 73720 )

      The cost and pace are a feature? Of course they are! Years, indeed decades of money flowing into certain Congressional districts. In return, lots of campaign donations, and well-paid positions for certain key ex-bureaucrats.

      One of the largest NASA testing facilities is in... northern Ohio. Spread out between a huge building in a suburb of Cleveland and a sprawling complex in Sandusky, where Cedar Point is. Because that makes sense, right? Northern Ohio is well known for it's hub of high tech aeronautical innovation and all.

      To be entirely fair, the home of the US Air Force is the massive Wright-Patterson base in Dayton, and they do quite a bit of research and development there. But, Dayton is not in northern Ohio.

  • by sweet 'n sour ( 595166 ) on Thursday December 17, 2020 @05:18AM (#60840520)
    Hasn't SpaceX benefited from NASA's knowledge pool too? Wouldn't the work involved with Orion be part of that?

    This reminds me of those "Not tested on animals" statements I see on some products. Chances are high that every ingredient used in that product has been tested on animals at some point -- it's just that this particular company, with this particular recipe of ingredients, didn't test that combination on animals.
    • by Ecuador ( 740021 ) on Thursday December 17, 2020 @05:51AM (#60840556) Homepage

      Well, no, SpaceX has not benefited from the work on Orion in any meaningful way, where did you even get that notion?
      Obviously both SpaceX and Orion build on from previous experience in the field in general, that's how progress works, but the comparison is interesting (albeit obviously, we all know the real purpose of the big cost plus congress driven projects). If anything, Lockheed started with an advantage of having developed for NASA previously, and any experience/know how from that would not be in the public domain available for the likes of SpaceX.

    • *Some* of NASA's knowledge? Certainly. From Orion? Nah, that seems extremely unlikely.
    • by JBMcB ( 73720 )

      Hasn't SpaceX benefited from NASA's knowledge pool too? Wouldn't the work involved with Orion be part of that?

      Yes and no. SpaceX is undoubtedly using NASA's existing knowledge pool to build their rockets. However, so is NASA. In fact, the people who have developed that knowledge pool, mostly, still work for NASA. So why is NASA so far behind SpaceX?

  • If something have been done before you can make good requirements and you can outsource. In this case only the requirement a Loss of Crew probabiltiy (1:300 or so), was hard to verify, so that gave some small issues. Otherwise, the other requirements, although complicated, wasn't something the parties was arguing much about.

    But if you can't make clear requirements, don't outsource. It will always come back to you, fighting with your subcontractor wanting more money. I think that is what is going wrong wi

  • by Megane ( 129182 ) on Thursday December 17, 2020 @05:27AM (#60840536)
    Just look at how long SLS has been around in one form or another, and it still hasn't flown yet!
    • and counting....
      You can buy a whole lot of recycled SpaceX rockets.

    • I happened to be reading about the engines yesterday.
      Fifty year old technology (admittedly great) built new as a shittier (not reusable) version.
      One HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS per engine.
      It is reasonably arguable that Raptor, is broadly comparable in outcome.
      Cost is aimed to be around two hundred thousand dollars.

      It is overwhelmingly likely that the whole development program and facilities have cost less than a hundred million times the five engines which have flown in starhopper, SN8 and the other one.
      • by Megane ( 129182 )

        One of the many problems with SLS is the old-space insistence on using LH2/LOX in the first stage. Low thrust, so it needs boosters, and low density so its tanks need to be 3 times any other fuel (more weight), plus insulation between stages so it doesn't freeze the fuel. Isp is not a measure of power, it's a measure of efficiency, like miles per gallon. Using LH2 as a first stage fuel is like trying to tow a semi trailer with a Prius, then towing the Prius with a diesel truck (SRB) so you can get up hills.

  • by nospam007 ( 722110 ) * on Thursday December 17, 2020 @06:35AM (#60840614)

    That doesn't hinder them to publish 'monthly reports' about their accomplishments.

    https://www.nasa.gov/explorati... [nasa.gov]

  • by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Thursday December 17, 2020 @07:15AM (#60840684)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • They served their purpose, which was getting to the moon before the Russians.

      Given the fact that we haven't been back to that Hill for decades, I'm starting to wonder exactly why we even called this a "purpose". Or a "race".

      King of the Hill is a game, with worse justification than 21st Century Olympic Games. I agree. Shut it down. The delusions that no one other than NASA can do this, are obviously evaporating before our very eyes.

  • Just a curiosity... what's the work/life balance between NASA and SpaceX?
    I know some people who work at NASA and JPL and they have good gigs. They'll have an occasional "crunch" but typically they work hard doing stuff they love and have some excitement along the way.

    I don't know anyone who works at SpaceX, but as a private company there is some pressure to perform I'm sure... so I imagine it would be more akin to a computer gaming studio where people work super hard on work they love and a dream they want

    • Ah yes the old âoethat private company is obviously only better because it treats everyone like shitâ argument Letâ(TM)s be honest... government workers in white collar jobs... barely work. Maybe do a few hours in a few meetings, then go off for lunch to the market, watch a movie, do anything. There is no one to answer to. The job is to spend tax payer money.
      • I was asking a question, not making an accusation. I know people at NASA ad JPL, don't know people at SpaceX. The people I know work hard.
        Way to jump to a conclusion.

  • It's not perfect, but the Air Force, Navy etc don't design the aircraft. They say here are the requirements .. build something and we will test it. Come to think of it, pretty much exactly what NASA did with SpaceX dragon. Nasa should scrap Artemis and just help pay for Starship R&D. When thats finished in a couple of years buy 4-5 of em. They will be NASA starships ( just like the F-16, F-15. F-22. F-35 etc.... are Airforce planes - air force bought them ) and be done with it. As far as that g

  • Which is - what? Twelve years late? By the time it launches - if it does - it will carry rather obsolete technology. They might just as well scrap it, redesign it, and name after a scientist, not a bureaucrat.
    • Many of NASA's probes launch with obsolete technology. Take the Psyche asteroid mission that will launch in 2 years (late 2022). They are using a commercially available webcam from the year 2013. I mean think about that .. they are spending a billion dollars on the mission and could only afford an $80 one megapixel webcam as the sensor? It's not even HD! Meanwhile I bet those same people who made that decision are using 4K webcams for their zoom meetings.

  • This is why science and engineering shouldn't be a government endeavor. The political winds are constantly shifting. One administration likes something but the next kills it because it wasn't their idea. Couple that with the fact that pretty much any failure will translate into supposedly the voters thinking that the whole thing is a waste of money (it's not the voters but the politicians who want to dole it out to whomever gets them reelected). So, by never trying something, they can never be seen to h

    • LMOL - wow somebody who doesn't know how corporations work.

      No jackass they don't. Corporations are risk adverse and are fixated on controlling costs in order to return money to investors.

      If NASA as a private endeavor we would never have gone to the moon.
  • bye bye Bridenstein. go get a real job for once in your life.

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