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Covid Superspreader Risk Is Linked To Restaurants, Gyms, Hotels (bloomberg.com) 149

Posted by msmash from the closer-look dept.
The reopening of restaurants, gyms and hotels carries the highest risk of spreading Covid-19, according to a study that used mobile phone data from 98 million people to model the risks of infection at different locations. From a report: Researchers at Stanford University and Northwestern University used data collected between March and May in cities across the U.S. to map the movement of people. They looked at where they went, how long they stayed, how many others were there and what neighborhoods they were visiting from. They then combined that information with data on the number of cases and how the virus spreads to create infection models. In Chicago, for instance, the study's model predicted that if restaurants were reopened at full capacity, they would generate almost 600,000 new infections, three times as many as with other categories. The study, published Tuesday in the journal Nature, also found that about 10% of the locations examined accounted for 85% of predicted infections. This type of very granular data "shows us where there is vulnerability," said Eric Topol, of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, which wasn't involved in the study. "Then what you need to do is concentrate on the areas that light up."
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Covid Superspreader Risk Is Linked To Restaurants, Gyms, Hotels More

Covid Superspreader Risk Is Linked To Restaurants, Gyms, Hotels

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  • I was under the impression restaurants and gyms were closed during that time period and hotels like ghost towns.

    • My gym is open, reduced capacity, admonitions to wipe equipment down after use, blah blah. So far they report no significant cases, as in non-zero but not reportable even by the county.

      But as with so much, there is such terrible data. The phrase 'they would generate almost 600,000 new infections' isn't useful to me. Is this over a period of time, and is it a week, month, year? Is 'almost' 400,000 or 550,000?

      All the data is wrong, anyways, we know this. It's guidelines, approximations, to be used carefully a

    • Nope.
      I am sorry if you Cable News is not telling you the truth, but that isn't really the case. In New York State, These Restaurants, Gyms and Hotels may be open or closed depending on the number of Covid cases in the area, as well how well they may be working to keep their environment safe.

      When it first started to hit hard, there was a blanket closure, but over time, as information about its spread has improved, so we can have some openings and some closures as to not stop everything.

  • Hotels? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Rei ( 128717 ) on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @01:06PM (#60707884) Homepage

    Restaurants and gyms are entirely unsurprising. But I'm surprised at hotels. Are we underestimating fomite / contact spread? Or is it being spread in places in hotels other than private rooms (hotel bars, etc)? Or is there a chance that there's some temporal errors in the study, and it's just that "travelers" are likely to get infected, but not necessarily in their hotel rooms? Or is it due to people "bringing back others to their hotel rooms"? E.g. the study mentions:

    In Miami, for example, infections modeled from hotels peaked around the same time the city was grabbing headlines for wild spring-break beach parties that prevailed despite the pandemic.

    Surely it had more to do with the beach parties than the hotels themselves, no?

    • The study seems to be very much a rear-view mirror approach— are restaurants anywhere in the US operating at normal capacity/no spacing requirements?

      Hopefully we get some new insight as to how to approach this all in the coming months...

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

        The study seems to be very much a rear-view mirror approachâ" are restaurants anywhere in the US operating at normal capacity/no spacing requirements?

        Hopefully we get some new insight as to how to approach this all in the coming months...

        I'm sure there are plenty. Sure they are "distance' in name, but bars and restaurant owners are greedy and probably will not be able to resist packing more people than they should.

        And many towns and such in the US can be considered conspiracy towns themselves, especial

    • I expect for many people, mentally while they are in their hotel, they feel like it is their temporary home. So they will be wondering the halls, going to the public areas without so much thought of social distancing.

    • Re:Hotels? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by BeerFartMoron ( 624900 ) on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @01:30PM (#60707982)

      The paper itself [medrxiv.org] does not try to answer the "Why?" part of the question, only the "Where?".

      Personally, I lean towards centralized air handling [nih.gov] as the main issue at these sorts of venues. If so, these issues are addressable [who.int].

      • If that is the case it would fall opposite of what we are being told about masks and distancing.
        Since the virus can last for hours in the air yes it would be possible but not many of the particles should be able to travel from room to room even if you had ducts that directly connected rooms.
        Also this would mean that airplane travel is even worse, even with people wearing home made masks they would be in close contact to higher concentrated air for longer periods of time.

        • Also this would mean that airplane travel is even worse, even with people wearing home made masks they would be in close contact to higher concentrated air for longer periods of time.

          Aircraft cabin air is replaced about every 3 minutes.

          • Ok. So not the best comparison, unless hotels have increase the types of filtering used.
            So let's then switch it to offices. Plenty of them are in full use, with some separation in place and maybe a panel separating people. If COVID is traveling through vents between rooms then those panels should not provide much protection.

            • Correct.

              What's the issue?

              • Issue I have with this is the report saying that hotels are the one of the big spreads. Since hotel restaurants got covered by restaurants, and conference room would be under that catagory, that would mean that the report is saying that just being in your room is a high risk.
          • I suspect this is a red herring the airlines put out for propaganda purposes - I consistently get sick whenever I fly, usually with the worst cold I have that year.

        • Airplanes have hospital quality particle/virus filters in their AC.

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by ljw1004 ( 764174 )

      I'm surprised at hotels. Are we underestimating fomite / contact spread? Or is it being spread in places in hotels other than private rooms (hotel bars, etc)?

      It might be hotel air conditioning that circulates air between rooms?

      • It might be hotel air conditioning that circulates air between rooms?

        Every hotel I've ever stayed in had no central HVAC, just the individual unit under the window that exhausts to the outside.

        • But many of them have that vent in the bathroom. I think its meant to be some kind of return air vent to minimize moisture, but where does the replacement air come from? I can only assume the hallway or some other vent. If I stayed in a hotel, I might be tempted to bring some tape and close that vent off.

          There's also hotels in older buildings which have air vents in the bathroom and the main room, even though they might have the individual wall unit that exhausts outside.

    • This story is about a study on a model they made which had some mobile phone data applied (maybe how many close physical contacts they avg daily). This isn't a study on any hard data

    • Indeed people who go to hotels typically do so with the intention of going somewhere other than the hotel.

      I'm typing this to you from a hotel right now. In a restaurant. Because there's no other way for me to get dinner tonight. Oh and in the entire country restaurants are closed except for the ones in hotels. Fortunately there's not many people around, but my point is that hotel stays typically coincide with other risk factors:
      - Meeting people
      - Eating out
      - Going to often crowded places.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by GuB-42 ( 2483988 )

      Hotels usually have restaurants, and even when they don't, residents usually eat at restaurants. Many hotels have gyms too, so I guess they are all lumped together.

      Considering that hotels sometime serve as quarantine zones, I guess they are safe if you only allow room service, but that's probably not what they meant by "opening".

  • What about offices?

    I guess, as these shut down pretty damn quick, with remote working becoming the norm, we'll never really know.

    Suffice to say, since I've been working from home - March 16th if I recall - I haven't been ill at all - no usual seasonal colds.

    But, sure, any enclosed space where you spend a considerable amount of time with other people, is going to be a risk.
    I guess we all knew this, but the research bears it out - so, absolutely useful regardless of how obvious it seems.

    The more people you ha

    • Public transport ... (Score:4, Insightful)

      by bb_matt ( 5705262 ) on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @01:23PM (#60707956)

      So, as a UK resident, not living in London, on the odd occasion I do visit, without fail *every* single time I do, I come back with some sort of respiratory condition.

      All it takes is a few trips on the tube - and you'll end up with a mutated variant of a rhinovirus - one your body hasn't encountered before.

      It's almost inevitable - unless you've been commuting in this environment for a lengthy period of time.

      They are usually mild, but *absolutely* prevalent.

      Surely public transport is a *massive* super spreader - way beyond restaurants, hotels, gyms etc.

      So, if you are tracking people in restaurants, gyms, hotels etc. - how did they get there?

      Public transport?

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by 1s44c ( 552956 )

        The London underground has always been like that. If you don't use it for 6 months you will get something cold-like when you do.

        They do claim there is little corona in the underground, most likely because it can't compete will all the nasty stuff already there.

        • most likely because it can't compete will all the nasty stuff already there.
          That is nonsense. A virus is not a wild animal competing about grass or competing about eating other animals. No infection you already have will prevent you to get another one or hundreds on top of it.

    • Offices are often fairly good. The cubes are like masks, and stop a lot of direct contacts, as well work can be a strong force to enforce mask wearing.

    • What about offices?

      I guess, as these shut down pretty damn quick, with remote working becoming the norm, we'll never really know.

      I've been "in the office" consistently for the entire year because there is no way we could do what we do from home. We have to be medically screened every day, wear masks and social distance of course, but there have been very few instances of transmission within the office and actually very few folks who've turned out to have the virus actually in the buildings. Our infection rates are actually lower than the surrounding areas so far. Everybody is being careful working in an office setting and even thoug

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Rei ( 128717 )

      "these shut down pretty quick" - depends on where you are. Iceland for example never shut down offices. People did work-from-home where they could, but shutdown orders here have always focused on risk, not some politician's decision of "essential vs. nonessential".

      Offices do not appear to have been a meaningful source of transmission. Here, gyms and bars seem to have been the big ones. We also had one big slipup recently where the main hospital for treating the elderly had an infection which went unnotice

  • focused on small businesses with a bit for the Theatre & Hotel chains. Otherwise our economy isn't going to make it, and it'll be 8-10 years before we recover with all of us making significantly less money.
    • I wonder how effective that would be. It is kind of like paying the airlines to fly a full schedule of empty planes. As I look at our CARES loan data, it simply functioned as an insurance policy and was not “spent” as much as it offset other spending and became profit. It did save a handful of jobs for a couple months, but ultimately we did fire 70% of the people (for performance more than lack of work). Hopefully I can convince my partners to do a nice Christmas bonus for folks, but even that

    • Please add to that a 'bar tab' so we can pay bars to stay closed. I feel for them, but having people drink alcohol, get loud and forget to observe precautions sure sounds like a great way to spread disease.
      IIRC, there was talk in the 80's or 90's that raising the tax on beer would reduce STDs because...

      If anyone can point to a source for that reference, it would be appreciated.

      • NVM, I found the info, at the CDC no less. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/previ... [cdc.gov]

        "Most beer tax increases were followed by a relative proportionate decrease in gonorrhea rates among young adults (24 [66.7%] of 36 instances of beer tax increases among 15--19-year-olds [phttps://www.medicaldaily.com/a...

    • How many of these businesses, could with some minor or a bit more major changes, could be a safe environment where they can open up again.

      Or are the Pig Headded bosses refusing doing any changes because they want to run their business their own way, even if it means them going out of business.

      We see many of the bigger restaurant chains surviving, and getting better. Mainly due to the fact their owners are caring more about keeping their business working than their personal political stances. So they setup

  • (Norm MacDonald voice) - And for the 8th month in a row the number one super-spreader is: Huge Orgies.
  • 20% of people who contract covid-19 will develop mental illness within 90 days [reuters.com].

    This is on top of difficulty breathing, lethargy, dry cough, diarrhea, vomiting, hallucinations and possibly death.

    But hey, it's no worse than the flu.

    • 20% of people who contract covid-19 will develop mental illness within 90 days

      Many more people will develop mental illness from being locked down at home for 8 months and counting.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by PPH ( 736903 )

      Probably due to the stress of all the people running around, screeching about Covid.

      From TFA:

      The study also found that people with a pre-existing mental illness were 65% more likely to be diagnosed with COVID-19 than those without.

      So, already nuts. But now they are 'in the system' where we can track them.

    • If only the Reuters report asked the question if there was a correlation between age and mental illness after COVID-19, because the chances of _death_ from COVID-19 are 1 in 5 for those older than 70. It would not surprise me if 99% of those mental illnesses occur in those older than 70 that have recovered from COVID and a scattering of other genetically unlucky people or people with comorbidities in the younger age groups.

      What is for sure is that the constant screeching of a handful of people (like yourse

  • Was on a bike ride a couple months ago and rode past a restaurant that had a big lineup around the corner of people waiting to dine indoors. In a pandemic. What kind of maniac does this? It's completely unnecessary. It's like playing golf if there was a disease spread through golf club handles, it's a completely optional leisure activity that's ultra-high-risk and easy to avoid.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by PPH ( 736903 )

      That's pretty typical of all the hipster joints in Seattle. Take a look at some of the hole-in-the-wall eateries in and around what is now the CHAZ. Line of people around the block, waiting for a table to get a kale and soy burger.

    • the government of course!

      After all in the UK, to ensure the spread was contained, they imposed a curfew - 10pm you were out the door and the doors closed or the shop owner would get a big fine (one fast food takeaway was fined because even though the customer had a receipt with 10pm on it, he wasn't handed his food until 4 minutes past)

      So everyone in a bar would be kicked out the door at the same time.

      In a non-fascist world, the bar would have a 11pm close trime, and people would be allowed to drift off as

  • If I have to give up hotels, then I don't need restaurants.
    If I don't have restaurants, I don't need the gym either.

  • NOT according to the tavern and restaurant leagues. And don't even mention Big Ten sports or your face will be cut off.

  • That's why Seattle placed one of their major Covid testing sites on Aurora Avenue. In what we refer to as "The Green Mile".

  • The other shoe to drop sooner or later: schools are also superspreader venues. Maybe even the primary ones for the fall spike. Asymptomatic you see. There's pretty much zero surveillance testing so far to rule this out. I strongly suspect that when the surveillance does get going of necessity (when it is already tragically late) then we will find out the kids have been bringing it home for months, and so-called community spread starts there.

    Sheesh, anybody with kids in school knows that the whole family cat

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