Covid Superspreader Risk Is Linked To Restaurants, Gyms, Hotels (bloomberg.com) 149
The reopening of restaurants, gyms and hotels carries the highest risk of spreading Covid-19, according to a study that used mobile phone data from 98 million people to model the risks of infection at different locations. From a report: Researchers at Stanford University and Northwestern University used data collected between March and May in cities across the U.S. to map the movement of people. They looked at where they went, how long they stayed, how many others were there and what neighborhoods they were visiting from. They then combined that information with data on the number of cases and how the virus spreads to create infection models. In Chicago, for instance, the study's model predicted that if restaurants were reopened at full capacity, they would generate almost 600,000 new infections, three times as many as with other categories. The study, published Tuesday in the journal Nature, also found that about 10% of the locations examined accounted for 85% of predicted infections. This type of very granular data "shows us where there is vulnerability," said Eric Topol, of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, which wasn't involved in the study. "Then what you need to do is concentrate on the areas that light up."
Mar-May? (Score:2)
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My gym is open, reduced capacity, admonitions to wipe equipment down after use, blah blah. So far they report no significant cases, as in non-zero but not reportable even by the county.
But as with so much, there is such terrible data. The phrase 'they would generate almost 600,000 new infections' isn't useful to me. Is this over a period of time, and is it a week, month, year? Is 'almost' 400,000 or 550,000?
All the data is wrong, anyways, we know this. It's guidelines, approximations, to be used carefully a
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Nope.
I am sorry if you Cable News is not telling you the truth, but that isn't really the case. In New York State, These Restaurants, Gyms and Hotels may be open or closed depending on the number of Covid cases in the area, as well how well they may be working to keep their environment safe.
When it first started to hit hard, there was a blanket closure, but over time, as information about its spread has improved, so we can have some openings and some closures as to not stop everything.
Hotels? (Score:5, Interesting)
Restaurants and gyms are entirely unsurprising. But I'm surprised at hotels. Are we underestimating fomite / contact spread? Or is it being spread in places in hotels other than private rooms (hotel bars, etc)? Or is there a chance that there's some temporal errors in the study, and it's just that "travelers" are likely to get infected, but not necessarily in their hotel rooms? Or is it due to people "bringing back others to their hotel rooms"? E.g. the study mentions:
Surely it had more to do with the beach parties than the hotels themselves, no?
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Hopefully we get some new insight as to how to approach this all in the coming months...
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I'm sure there are plenty. Sure they are "distance' in name, but bars and restaurant owners are greedy and probably will not be able to resist packing more people than they should.
And many towns and such in the US can be considered conspiracy towns themselves, especial
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I expect for many people, mentally while they are in their hotel, they feel like it is their temporary home. So they will be wondering the halls, going to the public areas without so much thought of social distancing.
Re:Hotels? (Score:5, Insightful)
The paper itself [medrxiv.org] does not try to answer the "Why?" part of the question, only the "Where?".
Personally, I lean towards centralized air handling [nih.gov] as the main issue at these sorts of venues. If so, these issues are addressable [who.int].
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Since the virus can last for hours in the air yes it would be possible but not many of the particles should be able to travel from room to room even if you had ducts that directly connected rooms.
Also this would mean that airplane travel is even worse, even with people wearing home made masks they would be in close contact to higher concentrated air for longer periods of time.
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Also this would mean that airplane travel is even worse, even with people wearing home made masks they would be in close contact to higher concentrated air for longer periods of time.
Aircraft cabin air is replaced about every 3 minutes.
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So let's then switch it to offices. Plenty of them are in full use, with some separation in place and maybe a panel separating people. If COVID is traveling through vents between rooms then those panels should not provide much protection.
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Correct.
What's the issue?
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Re: Hotels? (Score:2)
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Then don't sit in shorts and a T-shirt in a plane that has an interior temperature of 16C-18C.
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Airplanes have hospital quality particle/virus filters in their AC.
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I'm surprised at hotels. Are we underestimating fomite / contact spread? Or is it being spread in places in hotels other than private rooms (hotel bars, etc)?
It might be hotel air conditioning that circulates air between rooms?
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It might be hotel air conditioning that circulates air between rooms?
Every hotel I've ever stayed in had no central HVAC, just the individual unit under the window that exhausts to the outside.
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But many of them have that vent in the bathroom. I think its meant to be some kind of return air vent to minimize moisture, but where does the replacement air come from? I can only assume the hallway or some other vent. If I stayed in a hotel, I might be tempted to bring some tape and close that vent off.
There's also hotels in older buildings which have air vents in the bathroom and the main room, even though they might have the individual wall unit that exhausts outside.
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This story is about a study on a model they made which had some mobile phone data applied (maybe how many close physical contacts they avg daily). This isn't a study on any hard data
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Indeed people who go to hotels typically do so with the intention of going somewhere other than the hotel.
I'm typing this to you from a hotel right now. In a restaurant. Because there's no other way for me to get dinner tonight. Oh and in the entire country restaurants are closed except for the ones in hotels. Fortunately there's not many people around, but my point is that hotel stays typically coincide with other risk factors:
- Meeting people
- Eating out
- Going to often crowded places.
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Hotels usually have restaurants, and even when they don't, residents usually eat at restaurants. Many hotels have gyms too, so I guess they are all lumped together.
Considering that hotels sometime serve as quarantine zones, I guess they are safe if you only allow room service, but that's probably not what they meant by "opening".
Obvious - but the research has to be done (Score:2)
What about offices?
I guess, as these shut down pretty damn quick, with remote working becoming the norm, we'll never really know.
Suffice to say, since I've been working from home - March 16th if I recall - I haven't been ill at all - no usual seasonal colds.
But, sure, any enclosed space where you spend a considerable amount of time with other people, is going to be a risk.
I guess we all knew this, but the research bears it out - so, absolutely useful regardless of how obvious it seems.
The more people you ha
Public transport ... (Score:4, Insightful)
So, as a UK resident, not living in London, on the odd occasion I do visit, without fail *every* single time I do, I come back with some sort of respiratory condition.
All it takes is a few trips on the tube - and you'll end up with a mutated variant of a rhinovirus - one your body hasn't encountered before.
It's almost inevitable - unless you've been commuting in this environment for a lengthy period of time.
They are usually mild, but *absolutely* prevalent.
Surely public transport is a *massive* super spreader - way beyond restaurants, hotels, gyms etc.
So, if you are tracking people in restaurants, gyms, hotels etc. - how did they get there?
Public transport?
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The London underground has always been like that. If you don't use it for 6 months you will get something cold-like when you do.
They do claim there is little corona in the underground, most likely because it can't compete will all the nasty stuff already there.
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most likely because it can't compete will all the nasty stuff already there.
That is nonsense. A virus is not a wild animal competing about grass or competing about eating other animals. No infection you already have will prevent you to get another one or hundreds on top of it.
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Offices are often fairly good. The cubes are like masks, and stop a lot of direct contacts, as well work can be a strong force to enforce mask wearing.
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What about offices?
I guess, as these shut down pretty damn quick, with remote working becoming the norm, we'll never really know.
I've been "in the office" consistently for the entire year because there is no way we could do what we do from home. We have to be medically screened every day, wear masks and social distance of course, but there have been very few instances of transmission within the office and actually very few folks who've turned out to have the virus actually in the buildings. Our infection rates are actually lower than the surrounding areas so far. Everybody is being careful working in an office setting and even thoug
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"these shut down pretty quick" - depends on where you are. Iceland for example never shut down offices. People did work-from-home where they could, but shutdown orders here have always focused on risk, not some politician's decision of "essential vs. nonessential".
Offices do not appear to have been a meaningful source of transmission. Here, gyms and bars seem to have been the big ones. We also had one big slipup recently where the main hospital for treating the elderly had an infection which went unnotice
We need a big stimulus package (Score:2)
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Please add to that a 'bar tab' so we can pay bars to stay closed. I feel for them, but having people drink alcohol, get loud and forget to observe precautions sure sounds like a great way to spread disease.
IIRC, there was talk in the 80's or 90's that raising the tax on beer would reduce STDs because...
If anyone can point to a source for that reference, it would be appreciated.
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NVM, I found the info, at the CDC no less. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/previ... [cdc.gov]
"Most beer tax increases were followed by a relative proportionate decrease in gonorrhea rates among young adults (24 [66.7%] of 36 instances of beer tax increases among 15--19-year-olds [phttps://www.medicaldaily.com/a...
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How many of these businesses, could with some minor or a bit more major changes, could be a safe environment where they can open up again.
Or are the Pig Headded bosses refusing doing any changes because they want to run their business their own way, even if it means them going out of business.
We see many of the bigger restaurant chains surviving, and getting better. Mainly due to the fact their owners are caring more about keeping their business working than their personal political stances. So they setup
Also, orgies. (Score:2)
Good news everybody! (Score:2)
This is on top of difficulty breathing, lethargy, dry cough, diarrhea, vomiting, hallucinations and possibly death.
But hey, it's no worse than the flu.
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20% of people who contract covid-19 will develop mental illness within 90 days
Many more people will develop mental illness from being locked down at home for 8 months and counting.
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Probably due to the stress of all the people running around, screeching about Covid.
From TFA:
The study also found that people with a pre-existing mental illness were 65% more likely to be diagnosed with COVID-19 than those without.
So, already nuts. But now they are 'in the system' where we can track them.
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If only the Reuters report asked the question if there was a correlation between age and mental illness after COVID-19, because the chances of _death_ from COVID-19 are 1 in 5 for those older than 70. It would not surprise me if 99% of those mental illnesses occur in those older than 70 that have recovered from COVID and a scattering of other genetically unlucky people or people with comorbidities in the younger age groups.
What is for sure is that the constant screeching of a handful of people (like yourse
What kind of maniac goes to a restaurant now? (Score:2)
Was on a bike ride a couple months ago and rode past a restaurant that had a big lineup around the corner of people waiting to dine indoors. In a pandemic. What kind of maniac does this? It's completely unnecessary. It's like playing golf if there was a disease spread through golf club handles, it's a completely optional leisure activity that's ultra-high-risk and easy to avoid.
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That's pretty typical of all the hipster joints in Seattle. Take a look at some of the hole-in-the-wall eateries in and around what is now the CHAZ. Line of people around the block, waiting for a table to get a kale and soy burger.
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the government of course!
After all in the UK, to ensure the spread was contained, they imposed a curfew - 10pm you were out the door and the doors closed or the shop owner would get a big fine (one fast food takeaway was fined because even though the customer had a receipt with 10pm on it, he wasn't handed his food until 4 minutes past)
So everyone in a bar would be kicked out the door at the same time.
In a non-fascist world, the bar would have a 11pm close trime, and people would be allowed to drift off as
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Oh, QAnon tinfoil hatters, that kind of maniac. Thank you for your concise answer.
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Mmm (Score:2)
If I have to give up hotels, then I don't need restaurants.
If I don't have restaurants, I don't need the gym either.
Some people don't get it so they vote Trump (Score:2)
Weed shops (Score:2)
That's why Seattle placed one of their major Covid testing sites on Aurora Avenue. In what we refer to as "The Green Mile".
And schools (Score:2)
The other shoe to drop sooner or later: schools are also superspreader venues. Maybe even the primary ones for the fall spike. Asymptomatic you see. There's pretty much zero surveillance testing so far to rule this out. I strongly suspect that when the surveillance does get going of necessity (when it is already tragically late) then we will find out the kids have been bringing it home for months, and so-called community spread starts there.
Sheesh, anybody with kids in school knows that the whole family cat
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The Trump election watch party has a real possibility of being a super-spreader event due to the lack of masks, and the fact that three cabinet members in attendance were later found to have COVID, and were quite likely infectious at the time. I haven't personally been to any Biden victory parties, but the one I saw video coverage online, nearly everyone was wearing masks. Though, masks are not 100% effective, and everything exists on a spectrum, so I suppose there may be a bit of uptick.
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WTF are they getting this phone movement information?
Are there that many people that have voluntarily signed up for a program that allows them to be tracked in order to create these people/movement models they mention?
I'd be highly pissed to know I was being tracked without a warrant....
I know the capability is there, but doing it without my knowledge and permission?
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yes virginia, there are that many people who sign up to be tracked. They use the map app on their phone. Now, by signing up, we mean that they have implicitly agreed to the tracking, not explicitly. However, in this day and age, that counts.
Perhaps you'd like to elect leaders who will take on these tech interests and change the law to require clear and explicit acceptance of tracking, and barring any other tracking without consent. Maybe even do something substantial to stop Facebook's ridiculous tracki
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That would be Joe Biden, who has also said section 230 should be removed from the social media boys.
https://www.politico.com/news/... [politico.com]
Yes, I guess either all the stuff about reigning in tech giants will soon be forgotten though, or the media will suddenly find an interest in Trump winning after all. That'll be fun to watch :-D
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First, the person themselves are not being directly tracked. The people studying the interactions don't know who you are. All they know is a piece of software on someone's phone came in close contact with a piece of software on someone else's phone. That's it. No identifiable information.
Second, yes, there are many people who have in
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I haven't personally been to any Biden victory parties
How many Trump cabinet meetings have you been to? Or does that not count? If you're against events and gatherings - then be consistent.
Re: They're missing the current danger (Score:3, Insightful)
We'll see, but no spike from Floyd protests. Mask wearing and outdoors seems to minimize the risk.
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https://www.businessinsider.com/nyc-contact-tracers-not-asking-people-attend-george-floyd-protest-2020-6?op=1
https://www.thecity.nyc/coronavirus/2020/6/14/21290963/nyc-covid-19-trackers-skipping-floyd-protest-questions-even-amid-fears-of-new-wave
https://nypost.com/2020/06/15/coronavirus-contact-tracers-wont-ask-if-new-yorkers-attended-protests/
https://www.nydailynews.com/corona
Re: They're missing the current danger (Score:4, Interesting)
There were too many people at the various george floyd protests to effectively contact trace them. They were outdoors and covering a large area - so even if some infections were traced to those events, who do you tell to follow up? Everybody at the event. That's pretty impractical. For the most part, mask wearing and the fact that the rallies were outdoors limited the possibility of exposure - though surely they didn't eliminate it. Still, short of telling thousands of people to get tested, what's the answer?
The same, I guess, goes for the various Trump rallies. Everybody there should assume they're potentially going to come in contact with somebody with the virus. And with the low mask-wearing ratio, the possibility is larger. Still, you can't test em all, though you can suggest strongly that they watch for symptoms, and wear masks for at least a few weeks in case they did pick it up...
Of course, if mask wearing were universal - or even 75-80 percent universal, that would be the equivalent of herd immunity for as long as the mask wearing was kept up. But try explaining that to someone who spouts bullshit like "manditory mask wearing is akin to slavery". Or to someone who thinks true herd immunity through mass infection is a good idea...
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Contact tracing was done in Portland Oregon by the FBI.
Re: They're missing the current danger (Score:5, Funny)
I did notice, however, the many of the looters and arsonists DID wear masks, but I don't think that was so much to keep virus under control....more for identity obfuscation.
They also left their badge and uniform at home to throw us further off the scent [of bacon]
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You were watching the "re-enactments" on Faux News, weren't you? Funny how, when it's cops murdering people without a trial, it's just a few bad apples, no matter how often it happens. But show one clip of a few people looting on a continuous loop, and they represent every protester.
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Err, actually, no..it was so widespread (the violence, looting and burning) that it showed up on CNN and MSNBC the two very liberal, supportive networks....
Unless they completely turned the cameras off, there wasn't any real w
Re: They're missing the current danger (Score:4, Informative)
It's really not that many people looting. Of course, I have citations to back up my claim. If you'd like to continue debating, please provide your own citations. No, random Youtube videos do not count.
https://time.com/5886348/repor... [time.com]
https://www.washingtonpost.com... [washingtonpost.com]
https://www.theguardian.com/wo... [theguardian.com]
https://www.usatoday.com/in-de... [usatoday.com]
https://acleddata.com/2020/09/... [acleddata.com]
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/04... [cnn.com]
You are a victim of propaganda. Your emotions are being cynically manipulated by sociopathic, greedy, power-hungry assholes. Don't let them win.
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But guess what... most police don't kill people either. Suppose only 5% of the time you walk out that door, someone will mug you... "the vast majority of your excursions are peaceful and safe." But do you feel safe?
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Absolutely. I have zero fear of your imaginary looters and fictitious rioters.
You do note the sources I linked, right? If these reputable, mainstream sources are "far left" to you, you've already drank the kool aid, willingly, and went back for seconds. Good luck living utterly divorced from facts.
You seem the type of person to believe things that make you feel good about yourself, and probably regard "truth" as a mutable concept.
That is to say, you seem mentally ill.
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Sure thing bud. Your anecdote beats the heck out of my long list of reputable sources.
In stupidity, that is.
You believe what you want to because it makes you feel good. That's it. No logic, no sources, just your precious feelings.
And no amount of facts can change your opinion. Because then, you'd have to admit that your ideals are just comforting lies.
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I live in Bellevue, upscale of and just across Lake Washington from Seattle. We were able to see, to watch, looters breaking windows, making off with stuff and even casually counting their loot, discarding what they didn't want... from our deck. Mass looting is real.
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And you are delusional, or actively engaging in dishonest propaganda. I will simply link to my other comment here, it contains links to numerous reputable sources proving you are wrong.
https://slashdot.org/comments.... [slashdot.org]
If you have some sort of proof, provide it. Otherwise, I'm afraid you have nothing of value to add to this conversation. Good day.
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See my other post in this thread for proof you are wrong, with plenty of links to sources. Most of those clips on Youtube aren't even from BLM protests. But of course, you don't even bother to link them, do you?
A tool is useful. You are not.
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Doesn't matter bud. You're barking up the wrong tree there. What you should be doing is cvomparing those statistics for the US with the statistics for other first world countries.
Spoiler alert: we have more police shootings in one year than Germany had in the last thirty years.
https://www.statista.com/stati... [statista.com]
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Who is talking about destroying anything? You do realize that "defund the police" does not mean "no police of any sort," right? It just means funding the police in a sensible manner, and putting the extra funds freed up to more productive uses. Cities that have taken funding from the police and given them to social workers have seen an overall decrease in crime.
https://globalshakers.com/us-p... [globalshakers.com]
https://www.theguardian.com/us... [theguardian.com]
And this has nothing to do with being a more violent society overall. That's a ver
Re:They're missing the current danger (Score:5, Insightful)
They were also spikes from Trump Rallies as well.
When ever you get a lot of people together, close together without masks it is a good chance it will start spreading.
I am guessing you are trying to point out how Hypocritical Biden supporters are, because they had a one day celebration where proper pandemic decorum wasn't followed. However many of these were ad-hoc celebrations that showed up without real planning, and it was a spur of the moment activity. Compared to the Trump Rallies that were planned Days or Weeks in advanced.
There is also a big difference in States Responses. Where Masks are not enforced, and no clear Distance Guidelines were given to that community.
Re:They're missing the current danger (Score:5, Informative)
There's both Biden celebrations and pro-Trump protests going on, but there's one big difference between them: masks.
Biden victory celebrations are a risk; not everyone at them is wearing a mask properly, but the vast majority of people are wearing them. At Trump protests, virtually nobody is.
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Anderson Cooper will be selling Amway? I thought he was more of a Fuller brush kind of guy. Or Watkin's products. Yeah, definitely Watkins.
I wonder what Jared will sell, besides his soul.
[Please note this is all meant to be in good fun, and not a dig against any political ideology. Just smirk and move on]
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Being/supporting/voting dem is the best and only vaccine against covid.
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Or maybe it's masks?
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Uh huh. Have you covid denialists come up for an explanation for why there's a direct correlation between mask use and rate of infections? Countries with early mask use have not just thousands fewer cases than the United States, but thousands of times fewer cases.
https://www.propublica.org/art... [propublica.org]
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Trump classic tactic: Pick a wrong you are doing and loudly blame someone else for doing the exact same thing.
Re:They're missing the current danger (Score:5, Insightful)
That is correct it is racist.
Mainly due to the fact there is a large percentage of Peaceful protests which Fox News won't cover, because that will not be interesting TV.
Yes in these protests they are some troublemakers and crimes happen when a lot of people are together. But it isn't nearly as bad as Right Wing TV makes it out to be.
Their has been an institutional set of racism. Armed White Protesters without masking, are just called protesters, and were saying they are peaceful because they are not shooting their guns at people. While a set of Darker skinned people who are just yelling and being angry, is seen as a riot. While they are statistically less dangerous than the first group.
Racism, isn't the 1980's Very Special Episode version of Racism, where you have that one guy who just hates Black people because they are black. But Racism is a case where you perceive a different motive and expectations based on what a different races do, while they may be doing the same thing. Eg. Angry Black Men, vs Righteous White Protesters. Or After Hurricane Katrina, Blacks were Looters, while the Whites were Resourceful Scavengers. You can be racist, like and love people of color. However in your mind you want them to stay in their place, if they stay in their place than you are fine with them. However if they are trying to be someplace a bit different it makes you uneasy.
Re:They're missing the current danger (Score:5, Insightful)
You forgot about those armed white protestors storming a state capitol building [npr.org], threatening guards and others, and destroying property [npr.org].
Funny how armed people making threats after going around state troopers aren't considered criminals and treated as such.
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you forget how harmless that is compared to a whole neighborhoods taken hostage (including a police station!) and people dying for weeks(month+?) and without the major media outlets even talking about it, but forced to by the trump.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
https://thespectator.info/2020... [thespectator.info]
https://www.wired.com/story/an... [wired.com]
even google search hides the topic
and people from those events did go to jail and IIRC fbi even killed one.
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So you're admitting there is racism when one group of armed people does something but isn't punished while another is. Glad to know.
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soryr, some how lost the whole sentence..
here is what it was suppose to be. "back to your example of, thew people from those events did go to jail and IIRC fbi even killed one."
IE your example of ranchers taking over a building did have consequences for whites, while my example for antifa where leaders cross state lines, took over a few blocks of homes/business they wont even both making an arrest when they have a video showing one of the leaders beating up a clergy man and dragging him out of their zone.
Re:They're missing the current danger (Score:4, Informative)
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https://spdblotter.seattle.gov... [seattle.gov] claims crimes were up 76% from 2019 to 2020. How do you figure that's "lower than normal"?
For two, how do you figure most of the violence was due to "police aggression"? They famously abandoned the area.
For three, there are a lot of pictures showing that the militant protesters were led and organized by Raz Simone. They certainly existed, and were not counter-protesters.
The only misinformation here seems to be your comment.
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they refused to let people enter or leave their homes and place of business. That alone is plenty for them to have national guard called on and forceably removed. And the media refused to cover it. To busy trying to show peaceful BLM protests and trump tweets.
The fact the government never came in to save the people who live/work in the area shows how broken that place is. I like the climate of N cali/oregon/washington, but the politics/government/people are insane,
Re:They're missing the current danger (Score:4, Insightful)
You mean "violent protests" like Y'all Qaeda taking firearms to a vote counting center to intimidate workers counting the votes, just because you don't like the outcome? Or do you mean the crowds of right wingnuts blocking roads and bashing cars?
Hmmm, I remember four years ago, you all said something... what was it? Oh, yes: "Get over it. You lost."
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Y'all Qaeda
That's quite clever.
Re:They're missing the current danger (Score:5, Funny)
Y'all Qaeda, they're just a bunch of Yeehawdists.
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yokel haram
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I'm partial to Gravy Seals.
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I like that one too.
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No sources? Of course not. Just more lies from the party of lies. Below, you will find my extensive list of sources showing how full of shit you are.
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Good, then perhaps there is hope for you. Most libertarians grow out of it after college.
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You aren't against any of that though. You are against peaceful protests that don't match your world view, so you lie about them to discredit them.
I grew up in Bellevue. Graduated from Bellevue High School. I personally know many of the protesters. And that's how I know you are full of shit.
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You speak standard winger derp: a noun, a verb and Chicago. Because the city barely makes the top 100 [alarms.org] of the most violent cities in the US by capita.
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Biden is the projected President-elect. Pandemic's over.
Almost right.
Biden is the projected President-elect. Now there is a leader who will encourage people to do the right thing to reduce the R number and reduce the effect of this pandemic. It will take time and people will still die.
Trump voters can't tell the difference between the effects of doing the right thing and the effects of some bizarre unseen global anti-trump conspiracy they collectively imagined so they reach for the answer that lets them carry on believing the entire universe revolves around them
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
I am absolutely convinced that this is the back to school spike as you say. My kid is 100% remote now,, we implored our friends to take their kids out of physical school to, they didn't. Really weird arguments too. And now one of them just got "a cold".