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Australia Medicine

Australia Records Zero New COVID-19 Infections (bbc.com) 220

The continent of Australia, where nearly 25 million people live, "has recorded its first day of no local cases of Covid-19 in almost five months," reports the BBC: Zero cases were reported in the 24 hours between 20:00 on Friday and 20:00 on Saturday - the first time this has happened since 9 June. The state of Victoria - epicentre of Australia's second wave - recorded zero cases for the second day in a row after a 112-day lockdown.

Health officials say more restrictions may be eased in the coming days. "Thank you to all of our amazing health & public health workers & above all else the Australian people," Health Minister Greg Hunt said on his Twitter account.

Australia combined lockdowns with "proactive testing and tracing," the article reports, adding that in addition Victoria "imposed some of the severest stay-at-home and curfew rules in the world."
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Australia Records Zero New COVID-19 Infections

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  • by Krishnoid ( 984597 ) on Sunday November 01, 2020 @11:35PM (#60673830) Journal

    First New Zealand, then Australia, then the world!

  • by anonimouser ( 7067209 ) on Sunday November 01, 2020 @11:59PM (#60673886)
    Why are news organizations always so misleading? I guess that is a given, maybe slashdot should be better at summarizing and not exaggerating? Of course, using the term "among the strictest in the world" is meaningless, because you could be ranked #40 out of 100 and still be "among the top in the class", because you are in the top half. I searched for the lock-down measures in Victoria and you could leave for work. That's not strict. Nothing compared to China. And of course, this is an accomplishment of no locally transmitted cases because Western countries seem unable to accomplish that, whereas Taiwan has surpassed 200 days already without local cases. I guess you are only judged by your peers, and the mindset is that the West will do poorly. Just be better than the US. Just be better than Europe. You're doing great!
    • Victorians could leave for work if they were in an exempted occupation, their restrictions have just been relaxed in the last few days.

      Here's an at a glance view of Australia:

      https://covidlive.com.au/ [covidlive.com.au]

      Two states larger (by area) of the six states and the capital territory have had zero community transmission for 200 days or more. The only new cases are arriving from overseas in those areas.

      Only 16 people are hospitalised, nationally, and sadly one person is on a ventilator.

      And you can see that in Australia,

    • What is regularly missed in reporting, is that the places with the strictest rules in places also see severe underreporting of infections. Remember, the vast, vast majority of people who contract COVID either display no symptoms or get a light cold. In Canada, we found in the places which instituted fines for going out, people would not go for testing or report their mild illness because of the risk/worry of being fined. Compliance and reporting is far better when the punitive measures are removed. Chan
  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Sunday November 01, 2020 @11:59PM (#60673888)
    it's possible to contain the virus. Aside from lock downs Australia made it a point to quarantine people who came into the country in hotels, not sure if they did the same with their citizens who tested positive like Vietnam did. I wish my country would do that in any case. I worry I'm going to catch it and bring it home to my family and given the relatively small apartment I live in there isn't much I can do about it.
    • Yes, we did quarantine everyone, there are still 20,000 or more waiting to come cable due to lack of quarantine facilities.

    • by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Monday November 02, 2020 @05:12AM (#60674494)

      it's possible to contain the virus.

      Yes and no. Australia benefits greatly from geography which allows the limit of spread by limiting movement of people in a way that doesn't prevent life itself from continuing to function.

      To prevent a spread you need to limit the movement of an infection. You can do that by ring fencing, but how large do you make that fence? In many states of Australia that fence was 50km. You were allowed to travel 50km from your home to do your stuff. That 50km allowed life to go on but basically eliminated the spread of the virus from one city to another.

      Try apply that boundary to Europe. Within 50km of me lives 1/4 of the population of my country. That 50km includes 4 cities, each with their own 50km barrier from other cities. The same distances would do nothing to prevent the spread. So for me to prevent infecting the next city over we'd need to limit it to 10km. But those 10km don't allow me to function in my own city, it would prevent me from going to work so the problem is much harder.

      The same applies to inter country travelers. If you're an island that's perfectly reasonable to control this. If you're a country that's 100km across with free movement to your neighbours it becomes very difficult. Even now in Europe with the new lock downs announced there are policies in place for quarantining travelers (not very strong policy but policy none the less) until their corona tests come back negative. That's good right? Oh except commuters in an out of high risk areas area allowed, commuters between countries are allowed as well, no testing or quarantine requirements which sounds strange until you realise just how much of the population falls into this category and how difficult it would be to quarantine and test these people.

      Australia and New Zealands owe their success to being islands.
      Many Asian countries owe their success to being authoritarian (my mother got "arrested" and was placed in a guarded hospital in Vietnam 2 days before flying out to Australia because someone else at their hotel tested positive, try that in the USA).

      • by tato22 ( 538926 ) on Monday November 02, 2020 @05:53AM (#60674566)
        I live in Melbourne and before restrictions started to relax a few weeks ago the fence was 5km for many weeks. Even then when that relaxed it went to 25km which is where we are now, not 50km
      • by quenda ( 644621 )

        Australia benefits greatly from geography ... Within 50km of me lives 1/4 of the population of my country.

        Australia is highly urbanised. Many could say the same. 60% of the population (15 of 25 million) of the continent lives in the 5 major cities.

        If you're a country that's 100km across with free movement to your neighbours it becomes very difficult.

        A ridiculous comment that shows you know nothing about Australia's handling of the pandemic. We closed *state* borders and temporarily put police roadblocks around cities. How is restricting national borders harder than that?

        Australia and New Zealands owe their success to being islands.

        So are Great Britain and North America (see Darién Gap). The virus arrived by air in all four cases, all had lots of international tr

    • by idji ( 984038 )
      yes, they did and still do quarantine citizens in hotels for 10 days, and that costs 1200$ per person, who paid themselves after September.
  • by auzy ( 680819 ) on Monday November 02, 2020 @12:10AM (#60673902)

    Why does this include a quote from Greg Hunt?

    Anyone who lives here in Australia knows he was part of the problem, not the solution. In fact, he was heavily against lockdown, which is the ONLY reason here in VIC why we got it back under control, and if he had been in charge and we had opened up, Australia would be like US now (NSW is still getting regular local infections fairly regularly, just at low rates). And I suspect that here in VIC, we're possibly more sorted than them now.

    We are fortunate that VIC wasn't run by his political party (who were the ones in charge of aged care, which was a total f**king disaster)

    • WA, QLD and VIC have done well. NSW is where shit will flare up again, Gladys Koala Killer has Sydney opening up too early. It's no coincidence that the success of various states' response can be gauged along party lines. The media play dumb in preference to lauding a Labor government's response to the pandemic. But reasonable people can see.
    • Sure, its under control for now , until biology takes over again and it starts to spread once more. The laws of viral transmission don't change just because your politicians want them to. Give it a month and it'll be back in force and then it'll be rinse and repeat.

      • by dwywit ( 1109409 )

        The lockdown isn't primarily to prevent the spread of disease, although ti does have that effect. It's to *slow down* the spread, so the health system doesn't become overwhelmed.

    • by dwywit ( 1109409 ) on Monday November 02, 2020 @06:45AM (#60674654)

      Of course the LNP will be taking credit for this - except they were the ones trying to lift restrictions early.

      They won't learn from the results of the QLD election. All the pro-business parties lost out, and the pro-est parties, UAP and PHON, lost out the most.

  • by RyanFenton ( 230700 ) on Monday November 02, 2020 @12:16AM (#60673916)

    This is kind of proof that it doesn't have to be about liberalism vs conservatism.

    It's about saving lives, and working together.

    This time, it just happens that in America, the conservatives, despite having complete control of most of the government, are completely against using that government to work together against the disease, because of their imagination about how it may possibly effect stock market values.

    Meanwhile, in this case, Australia and New Zealand and its surrounding Asian nations are also concerned with their economies - but use that same concern to work together and contact trace, and use a comprehensive healthcare system to keep their economy healthy between all political parties.

    That's what I mean when I say it doesn't have to be a liberal or conservative thing.

    Sometimes, it's the liberal groups that get a bug up their butt about vaccinations or some other utterly insane thing - but now it's the conservatives here.

    It doesn't have to be either of them though - we CAN all take our shared health as a bigger priority, AND win better economically for it.

    We just have to understand that when a political 'side' gets as batshit crazy as the Trump political era - that you have to work as hard as you can, whatever your 'side' to get past that insanity.

    No politics is worth the number of dead we've had, for so little reason other than misguided politics in an insane political cycle.

    Ryan Fenton

    • The stock market thing is bizare anyway.

      Here in Western Australia, the economy has almost gone back to normal, because we've been strict as hell on the virus, and purged it out of the state months ago. In fact for a while we had a number of companies moving here because we're stable and everywhere else isn't.

      Meanwhile all the countries that have done half ass jobs of containing it have markets in disarray due to the sheer uncertainty of it all.

      • by dwywit ( 1109409 )

        Same in Qld. Our real estate market is enjoying a boom - Victorians buying *sight unseen* or on a video tour of a property. Rentals scare as hen's teeth, they're all up for sale.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Monday November 02, 2020 @04:48AM (#60674428) Homepage Journal

      The most important thing is to have a leader that people respect and trust, and who can convince them to go along with the restrictions for a short time.

      Countries doing the worst are the ones where there is very little trust in the government. In the UK our Prime Minister is known mostly for lying and exaggerating, and has failed to discipline his own people who broke the rules. His party is knee deep in corruption. And sure enough, nobody takes him or his rules very seriously, and we are being hit with a second wave that is worse than the first one.

  • For the past month Australia has been reporting 10-20 cases a day, sometimes a little ore (e.g. 30) sometimes a little less (e.g. 5).

    Don't get me wrong, these are very, very good numbers for a country that size, so we should pay attention to *that*. But the fact that it hit zero on one day isn't necessarily significant; it certainly doesn't mean endemic transmission is over. I'm pretty sure we'll see a few cases reported next week.

    • Most of the new cases reported recently have been people in Quarantine from overseas.
      WA SA Queensland and NT have been at zero a fair bit other than those.

    • TFA is a bit behind. Victoria is now up to 3 consecutive days with zero local infections and zero deaths.
      • by Gimric ( 110667 )

        You can also look at the 14 day rolling average which tells the same story.

      • by hey! ( 33014 )

        Yes, the big picture is quite positive, and I was going to say what you want to see are increasing frequency of days where there is nothing to report.

        We should also keep in mind that reported cases are only a fraction of infections, and that asymptomatic/presymptomatic individuals play a critical role in maintaining the pandemic. In the short term, "zero" is just another number like "8" or "10"; it's only likely that endemic transmission has been eradicated when we see no cases for weeks on end.

  • As a German, I worry that we will bring the disease back in again over their open borders ...

    Do they have closed borders for people from infected countries?
    I really hope they do.

    (No, that is not nationalism, but common sense. Anyone who gets offended, is a dick. Hell, anyone who travels there from an infected country, al least without intense precautions, is a dick.)

    • Do they have closed borders for people from infected countries?

      Outside of returning residents, people from New Zealand, and a few exemptions around compassionate reasons, residents of all other countries are banned from entry into Australia. Numbers are capped to a few hundred and they must enter quarantine for 14 days, including returning 2 negative tests. Refusal of a test extends the quarantine period.

    • by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Monday November 02, 2020 @05:19AM (#60674514)

      As a traveler to Australia for any reason you end up quarantined in a hotel for 2 weeks and get tested. No exceptions, no early leaving, no special exemptions for family or work.

      Oh and you have to pay for the hotel yourself.

      Oh again, they have limited hotel quarantine capacity so they are heavily restricting the rate at which people can come into the country as well.

  • Comparison. (Score:5, Informative)

    by Falconhell ( 1289630 ) on Monday November 02, 2020 @02:25AM (#60674128) Journal

    Australia has had 1,000 deaths in 24 million.
    Translated to the same number of deaths in the US that would mean about 15,000 total deaths.
    Before you jump in and complain about population density, the vast majority of the population is concentrated in the state capitals, with fairly high population density.
    Despite the claims otherwise our economy has done fairly well all things considered and at this time restrictions are being loosened slowly.
    If we keep up quarantining of incoming international travellers, we could eliminate the virus here completely soon, as we are coming in to the heat of summer.
    Turns out a caring disciplined population and bi partisan approach can defeat this virus.
    Apart from a small rump of the far right, nobody is complaining at all, we like our elders being safe.

  • Wow (Score:4, Insightful)

    by DrXym ( 126579 ) on Monday November 02, 2020 @03:43AM (#60674232)
    It's almost as though a coordinated, concerted effort to test and isolate cases, backed up social distancing, masks, sanitizing and fines for offences actually works. Who'd have thought it?
    • You forgot the phrase, "[actually works] in populations that generally understand the shared value of common welfare." I'm not convinced that particular understanding exists in the US or the UK.
  • Australia needs a test with a higher false positive rate, to rectify the lack of cases.
  • I am not going to knock the achievements of governments and health services in Australia and NZ, but those countries have an advantage of being fairly isolated and self-contained. Over a century ago, Australia escaped the Spanish 'flu pandemic, by quarantining all ships arriving from abroad. This was in the days before widespread air travel, so the quarantine could be pretty thorough.

    One might argue that the UK is an island nation, and could have isolated itself just as effectively as Australia and NZ. Howe

    • by quenda ( 644621 )

      Australia and NZ,... have an advantage of being fairly isolated and self-contained. Over a century ago, Australia escaped the Spanish 'flu pandemic, by quarantining all ships arriving from abroad.

      Completely, utterly, false.
      Google says: “In 1919, between one-quarter and one-third of all Australians contracted ... 'Spanish' flu,” noted Dr Hobbins."

      • Completely, utterly, false.
        Google says: “In 1919, between one-quarter and one-third of all Australians contracted ... 'Spanish' flu,” noted Dr Hobbins."

        Interesting. I got my info from a BBC documentary about the 'Spanish' 'flu, made a few years ago. The presenter was Dr Hanna Fry, who I believe knows a bit about epidemiology and mathematics.

        I looked up Dr Hobbins myself. There is some interesting stuff he says about comparisons between Covid-19 and 'Spanish' 'flu. I think it possible I was mislead by the BBC documentary. Bear in mind that it was made some years before the current pandemic, so I would discount political agendas as biassing the account. It w

  • by AndyKron ( 937105 ) on Monday November 02, 2020 @07:19AM (#60674724)
    Donald Trump was right, we're turning the corner! Unfortunately, it's in the wrong corner of the world (from our perspective).
  • by rldp ( 6381096 ) on Monday November 02, 2020 @09:53AM (#60675272)

    Can we see numbers of suicides, drug overdoses, deaths due to missed cancer diagnoses, missed dialysis, etc?

    I don't think we can evaluate the "effectiveness" of the australian strategy until we can look at the whole picture.

  • If I knew that cases of transmission no matter how mild would result in prolonging lockdowns, I would do everything in my power to avoid getting tested...

The 11 is for people with the pride of a 10 and the pocketbook of an 8. -- R.B. Greenberg [referring to PDPs?]

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