Anthony Fauci on the Coronavirus and the Prospects for a Vaccine (newyorker.com) 94
In the video here, you can watch excerpts from New Yorker journalist Michael Specter and Fauci's conversation, which encompassed the hard lessons of the AIDS epidemic, Americans' fraught relationship with scientific and medical authority, and possible time lines for the development and distribution of a coronavirus vaccine. The key questions, Fauci told Specter, are not just when a vaccine will be available but how effective it will be and how many people will receive it. These are just a few of the factors that will determine the answer to one of the more lighthearted questions posed by Specter, after months of distancing and isolation: "Will we ever be able to go to the movies again?" While cautious about making specific predictions, Fauci expressed optimism about whether Americans are ever again going to be able to watch a movie in a theatre. "Yes, we are, Michael," Fauci said. "And I'll even buy you a ticket."
Re: Lottery number please? (Score:1, Flamebait)
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Goddamnit, would you Trumptards quit parroting shit that was mentioned back in February by him.
NOBODY knew much of anything about this virus at that time and are learning as we go.
God help you if someone could dig up some shit that you mentioned years ago and were wrong.
Shit changes and people learn. Have you ever heard of CHANGING YOUR MIND?
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Re:Lottery number please? (Score:5, Insightful)
Are you going to sit down for 12 hours while he runs across every data element and the math behind the models?
Or just put a piece of cloth on your face, and don't get up and close to people, especially strangers, and be patient as it will get better after some time.
I do data analysis for a living. What I have learned explaining everything is counterproductive because it is too much data to understand and the people just want to know what actions they should take.
If you are really wanting to get a hold of the information, I would probably do some more digging then listing to a few minute clip.
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Are you going to sit down for 12 hours while he runs across every data element and the math behind the models?
The accuracy of the models used to sell the lockdowns isn't really what you want to be focusing upon. I'm fairly certain that the initial models were all put together by people who didn't know what sampling bias is. The model produced in England (King's college?) that said 2m people would die in the US was basically a giant pile of bugs that once fixed gave drastically different results. I'm fairly certain that nobody ever compared the costs of the lockdown in terms of lives and negative health outcomes
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... people just want to know what actions they should take.
The big problem at present is that even the best informed experts are not sure what course of action is best. In the UK, the north of England is particularly hard hit with increasing infection rates, and so a natural reaction is to impose more restrictions in the worst affected areas. This is quite understandably resulting in bitter resentment of rules imposed on northern regions by those southerners that do not have to endure such restrictions. Businesses are failing. This is not trivial. Widespread non-c
Re:Anthony Fauci (Score:5, Insightful)
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This situation isn't as simple as [medical stuff]. It's ( [medical stuff] + [economics] ) X [political bullshit].... and that's not just what people are maliciously turning the issue into... It's the reality. Do we shut down _FOREVER_ to prevent one death? Obviously not, but
Re: Anthony Fauci (Score:3)
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Ignoring the data, are you?
It's not under any kind of control, and the Trumpolini-leaning states are where it's most severely increasing.
Plus, of course, all the "My Freedumbs" snowflakes, who can't bear to wear a mask.
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What I mean:
Curve was "flat" back in April (look it up). So why are we still locked down? Yes, there are still deaths, yes it is still spreading, but it is not out of control / exponential. SO WHY ARE WE STILL LOCKED DOWN?!
Yesterday, I didn't point my gun at my head while I reloaded it. When it accidentally fired I didn't die.
Therefore, I no longer need to avoid pointing my gun at my own head! Yes, some people shoot themselves, but it's not spreading, so logically we should not take any precautions. Because logic.
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Says it all no matter which stance your leaning toward.
And always be sure to see the bigger issues. Big chunks of America are being told to stay home and wait this out with no way to pay any of their bills.
Pretty easy to be for/get through a lockdown when your still getting paid.
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Oh, stop it. It's not *all* cable news, it's Faux "News".
I swear, if Joe Biden said that the sun rises in the east they'd argue that.
Re:Positive rates are up... (Score:5, Informative)
I'm going to throw science your way. When you do recover from Covid-19 the damage done can last the rest of your life https://www.mayoclinic.org/dis... [mayoclinic.org]
Your heart, lungs, and brain can be permanently effected.
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I'm going to throw science your way. When you do recover from Covid-19 the damage done can last the rest of your life https://www.mayoclinic.org/dis... [mayoclinic.org]
Your heart, lungs, and brain can be permanently effected.
And yet not surprisingly, the Medical Industrial Complex is excited as hell about the potential for Greed to cash in BIG in the future.
Think of all those used-to-be-perfectly-healthy humans...forced to come into hospitals over the next few decades, with all their bulging....wallets.
Wall Street, mop up your drool before someone slips and falls...
Re: Positive rates are up... (Score:4, Informative)
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You mean the same medical community that is seeing many doctors and nurses pushed to their limits in the hardest hit areas? I personally know a ER doctor. No one at the ER is counting the money. They are doing everything they can to keep people alive. Thatâ(TM)s their only goal. In the future, people will need more care and medical personnel do not sprout up overnight.
I apologize for not clarifying. Sincerely, because the people manning every front line in the world, from battlefield to ER, are the true heroes. And We the Humans, cannot thank them enough.
The Greed I speak of, is more in the upper ranks of insurance companies, shareholders, and government that force medicine to become an obscenely profitable and corrupt-as-hell business. Chances are if you asked the average doctor to treat someone for free because they couldn't afford it, they would. Yes, I know mill
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"Chances are if you asked the average doctor to treat someone for free because they couldn't afford it, they would."
We have a program called Medicaid in the U.S. Yet huge numbers of doctors don't participate in this: they don't have to treat patients for free--but at a reduced cost from what the private insurance industry is paying. But it's not enough for their greediness.
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Sounds like an excellent case to be made for eliminating private insurance, or at the very least for-profit insurance in it's entirely.
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"Chances are if you asked the average doctor to treat someone for free because they couldn't afford it, they would."
We have a program called Medicaid in the U.S. Yet huge numbers of doctors don't participate in this: they don't have to treat patients for free--but at a reduced cost from what the private insurance industry is paying. But it's not enough for their greediness.
I'm going to assume for a moment that your free time is just as valuable as someone with a doctorate degree, so tell me...how many volunteer hours have you provided recently?
Probably as many as I have.
Perhaps my assumption, was far more charitable than even I thought. I stand, corrected.
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... force medicine to become an obscenely profitable and corrupt-as-hell business.
This is precisely the problem with the funding of medical care in the USA. The raw facts of the economics are that someone's continued life or future health is so important that they would sacrifice all of their savings to achieve that, which makes health care very much a seller's market, and open to abuse as a result. The only other economic good I can think of that behaves like that is defense of your country against foreign invasion, for which brave soldiers are prepared to give their lives.
As a residen
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Effected? So covid-19 will create or at least complete the building of my heart, lungs, and brain, amazing! I though I was born with them fully functional!
If my heart, lungs, and brain are not completely effected by now, I sure would like covid-19 to finish the job so they are 100% completed at last!
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Yes, they used the wrong word, "effect" rather than "affect". We get it.
That said, if you want to be really helpful, next time ... just let the spelling/grammar/word choice flame go.
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Positive rates are up... ...WAY up...
Yet I still see absolutely no real problem here.
1,101,405 people would have something to say to you, were they still alive.
Another 29,291,261 have recovered, but face the potential of having long-term health issues ranging from lifelong breathing problems and blood clots to heart failure, stroke, and dozens of other issues on a list that is still increasing.
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You sure that most people will be fine? It's going to take years to assess the long term damage. https://www.mayoclinic.org/dis... [mayoclinic.org]
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Oh yeah all those people who received organ damage from the common cold... Can you point me towards the list of children who perished as a result of bars and restaurants being closed?
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Still waiting on you to cite sources.
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Still waiting for you to realize that's mainstream science that educated people know. Damn you are one willfully ignorant person. Look it up, dotard.
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hahaha, downvoters in denial about what, exactly?
That there are 200+ viruses that can cause the "common cold"?
That complications such as pneumonia (and other secondary infections), spread to liver, urinary and gastrointestinal tract, pemanent scarring to lungs.... of course death too.
What it is people are ignorant of? I'm genuinely curious this being 2020 and all....
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Yes I'm very sure and all the hooplah you get excited about, seeing damage from covid, happens with colds and flus too to some people.
Colds, no (*). Flu, yes, but several orders of magnitude less frequently than coronavirus even in people who didn't get a flu shot. And flu is also much less contagious than SARS-CoV-2, to the point that coronavirus approached the infection count of a slow flu season while people were massively locked down. So that increases each person's risk, too.
(*) Or at least not at a level high enough to have been noticed by anyone, AFAIK.
News for you, that's what respiratory viruses can do. Get it through your skull, if no useful vaccine then everyone is going to get exposed to this virus anyway, and the shutdown is killing children.
Wrong, full stop. A majority of people who are not locked down are going to
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But since it's be politicized, you can forget the easiest answers. The cynic in me believes you and our government would prefer to kill the retired population. If that's the case, you are a monster. I certainly hope that's not the case.
Your flawed assumption that "most would be fine" would cause over a million deaths, millions burdened with medical debt, a collapse of the healthcare system and an economic hit that would last for a generation while
Re: or the normal thing happens (Score:1)
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Here are some arguments for you:
https://coronavirus.medium.com... [medium.com]
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/med... [imperial.ac.uk]
https://www.thelancet.com/jo [thelancet.com]
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If we simply said wear masks while indoors and socially distance, but otherwise carry on with your lives as normal, there would be no need to have this discussion. Some people object to wearing masks, but most people don't. We've gone way past "just wear a mask and everybody will be fine". I live in a state where mask mandates have been in place since April. Businesses were closed for almost 3 months and were allowed to reopen with careful procedures and safeguards. Given our low level of community spread a
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I oppose lockdowns too, but I believe that there are too many fucking idiots who won't wear masks, get tested, stay home when sick, and will do everything up to catapulting their carcasses at besieged Walmart's to undermine public health measures. Compounding that, there are way too many social and economic structures that seem to be design
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...Cure worse than disease, economic collapse kills more than a respiratory pandemic...
I'm sorry, were you actually expecting the multi-millionaires we call "Representatives" to offer either sympathy or empathy towards the young, especially when damn near every one of them have been around since Christ was a corporal?
Dirt doesn't even begin to describe their average age. Go figure the Lifestyles of the Rich and Elderly are in favor of mass lockdown while fighting a novel coronavirus. They can certainly afford it, thanks to the corruption we welcome with every vote.
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You blather about a bunch of irrelevant stuff. The shutdown is killing hundreds of thousands of children with poverty, as the UN Sec General pointed out. Those are preventable deaths. Meanwhile, if no vaccine everyone is going to get exposed to this virus as is normal. Your rich and famous are irrelevant to these truths.
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The shutdown is killing hundreds of thousands of children with poverty, as the UN Sec General pointed out.
Lockdowns in America aren't causing that...
Not according to Mexico [dw.com] as the drop in traffic between the US and Mexico is causing significant hardship south of the border. Somehow I bet many poorer countries are having a similar experience.
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You blather about a bunch of irrelevant stuff. The shutdown is killing hundreds of thousands of children with poverty, as the UN Sec General pointed out. Those are preventable deaths. Meanwhile, if no vaccine everyone is going to get exposed to this virus as is normal. Your rich and famous are irrelevant to these truths.
We humans do not even deserve to use the term "preventable deaths" when we abort 40 - 50 million of our own every year.
Yeah, I know. It's a hell of an "irrelevant" truth...making ourselves, the most dangerous threat to ourselves.
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The shutdown is killing hundreds of thousands of children with poverty
What is happening is that millions of people living on the margins of survival are now genuinely poor. It does not take much to push them over the edge into destitution. The poverty was already there.
Whenever there is an economic crisis, the poor get hit first. Financiers gone bust stopped throwing themselves out of office windows ages ago. It's all fixed now, so they can't lose, even when they screw up.
Re:or the normal thing happens (Score:4, Insightful)
Already available, Russia has 2 in the pipeline... (Score:2)
...Fauci told Specter, are not just when a vaccine will be available
...
[...bold mine...]
Why waste time/resources when citizens are dying daily - that's not to mention the disruption in their way of life? Russia has 2 vaccines already [neweurope.eu], but politics will prevent western states from touching these vaccines even with a 10ft pole, even if they turn out to be the most effective.
Is it a coincidence that Russia's breakthroughs in this space have attracted little to no mention in western media?
My suggestion: Put the products under fervent scrutiny. Let's see whether they work or
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As far as I know, the problem with a vaccine given to people who are not currently ill, in order to prevent infection, is that the vaccine has to be proven to be safe. If a vaccine were applied to as many people as possible, but was then found to have harmful side effects in a few cases, all hell would break loose. This is especially so when there is irrational anti-vaxer disinformation at work.
The situation is rather different with drugs such as steroids, that are given to patients who already have severe
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What kind of work did you do?
Yes this shit is pretty fucking brutal and I didn't know about the baseball game which is super hypocritical but I am more interested in your other points, such as your job being replaced with automation?
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What kind of work did you do?
Yes this shit is pretty fucking brutal and I didn't know about the baseball game which is super hypocritical but I am more interested in your other points, such as your job being replaced with automation?
There are tens of millions of people out of work. It doesn't fucking matter what he did. Your post was as tone deaf as possible and you really need to quit trying to help. Its posts like your that create Trump voters.
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People get the leaders they deserve.
not a problem (Score:1, Troll)
Re: not a problem (Score:2)
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You're referring to a phrase from a rally he conducted, but that isn't quite it. What he said was, "That's their hoax." What the mainstream media did was to doctor the video of it. If you find the video, you will notice a cut, a discontinuity just before he says the phrase. Just before the discontiunty, they placed another phrase that makes it look like he was talking about the virus. He wasn't. What he was really referring to was Democ
Excerpts (Score:3)
Dear New York Times,
This is the internet. You do not have to post excerpts, you can just post the entire thing. If it's interesting, people will watch.
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Dear JBMcB, just because this is the internet doesn't change people's attention span. The reason we post excerpts is... oh look cat video, brb.
There is no plan! (Score:2)
What is required is a much more nuanced approach and its shameful that we haven't moved on from the initial panic and fear. The politicians have now had 9 months to do something more than scream "LOCKDOWN!" They have done nothing but made this political. The news media has done nothing but exacerbate this and call everyone else idiots.
Here is one example. Here in our town our college reconvened. College age kids came back to school where they were away from their families and older relatives. The
Re:There is no plan! (Score:5, Insightful)
What is required is a much more nuanced approach and its shameful that we haven't moved on from the initial panic and fear. The politicians have now had 9 months to do something more than scream "LOCKDOWN!"
Agreed, but not for the reasons you might think. Instead of just 'screaming' about lockdown, they should have done it - fast and brutally hard, but mercifully brief - about a month would have done the job if they'd gotten off their asses fast enough and committed to a sensible course of action. It's the waffling and hedging and infighting that's let this thing go on for so long.
Here in our town our college reconvened. College age kids came back to school where they were away from their families and older relatives. These kids were not intermingling with older and compromised people on a regular basis. Of course large numbers of them got COVID. None of them died. ONE ended up in the hospital, which was for 8 hours for an inhaler. These kids were locked down on campus, couldn't go anywhere, healed and developed immunity. Now, those kids can't spread the disease any longer.
There are two things wrong with what you've said. First, your observation that 'none of them died' totally ignores the strong likelihood that at least some of them now have timebombs ticking inside just waiting to go off in the form of strokes, heart attacks, etc. Second, some of them may have developed a temporary immunity. All the best evidence so far indicates that 'herd immunity' just won't happen with this virus - people have been re-infected with the same strain, never mind second infections with different variants of the virus. So yes, those kids can STILL spread the virus if they're exposed again - even if they show no symptoms.
Of course the issue with this approach is that none of it empowers the people and none of it is nuanced.
The people ARE empowered - they can wear masks, keep their distance from one another, and was their hands frequently. If everybody did this religiously, then going back to the workplace with modified procedures and lots of caution might be tolerably safe. But as usual, a bunch of snowflake fucktards whinging about 'muh freedumbs' spoil it for the responsibly-behaved rest of us. And the fact that in the States there's been a hard vacuum in the realm of leadership has multiplied that effect. So don't talk to me about 'empowerment' until almost everyone is actually taking advantage of the powers we already have to make this better.
Re: (Score:2, Funny)
I would have to disagree with you on your statement that people are empowered. There is more to being empowered than simply being told to do something. Sure they can wear masks and be hygienic and that is a good thing, but that does not give people all of the information that they need. What I am speaking of is being empowered to understand and figure out for themselves their own susceptibility to this virus and to really understand how they can spread it.
I look around and people are completely scare
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What is required is a much more nuanced approach and its shameful that we haven't moved on from the initial panic and fear. The politicians have now had 9 months to do something more than scream "LOCKDOWN!"
Agreed, but not for the reasons you might think. Instead of just 'screaming' about lockdown, they should have done it - fast and brutally hard, but mercifully brief - about a month would have done the job if they'd gotten off their asses fast enough and committed to a sensible course of action. It's the waffling and hedging and infighting that's let this thing go on for so long.
While I absolutely agree with you that a lockdown is the right approach, I think you have vastly underestimated the difficulty of such a lockdown.
India tried that early in the pandemic. The result? Massive outflow of people from the cities because the workers cannot afford to live there anymore, which just might spread the virus that much faster. And in the end, India had to lift the lockdown because people cannot live with it anymore.
A China-style hard lockdown required a few things:
- general trust and
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What is required is a much more nuanced approach and its shameful that we haven't moved on from the initial panic and fear. The politicians have now had 9 months to do something more than scream "LOCKDOWN!" They have done nothing but made this political.
Political is the only think they know how to do or are willing to do. The nuanced approach you speak of requires competent government formed by people willing to govern rather than "take government out of our lives", people willing to accept responsibility for their actions rather than pathological narcissists, and people educated enough to discern sound advice based on facts from ideology.
The lock-down, which should have been implemented harder and faster is just a temporary measure to give enough time f
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Couldn't agree with you more. The entire thing is shameful and we are still no better off.
--
It is more shameful to distrust our friends than to be deceived by them. - Confucius
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The politicians have now had 9 months to do something more than scream "LOCKDOWN!"
If people actually listened to experts instead of ignoring them they wouldn't have been screaming anything. But instead we get a scream of LOCKDOWN! met with a counter scream of ECONOMY! replied with AT LEAST WEAR A MASK! and then retorted with MUH FREEDOMS!
If America wasn't red vs blue, black vs white, and everyone seemingly existing only to tell someone else they are wrong then we'd be talking about what future programs are in store from each political party in the upcoming election. Instead we're only ta
Movies (Score:3)
False. We're not going to watch movies again. Not because of virus fear or covid, but because Hollywood is never going to make movies that don't suck.
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but because Hollywood is never going to make movies that don't suck.
a) the world is bigger than Hollywood.
b) your opinion is noted and filed in the wastepaper basked. The Avengers branded one proving that the masses disagree with you, A LOT.
In other news you should check out Tenet. Quite the good movie if you can get over yourself and suffer through a Hollywood movie.
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False. We're not going to watch movies again. Not because of virus fear or covid, but because Hollywood is never going to make movies that don't suck.
Having watched some truly ancient movies recently, I am inclined to agree. These were films made before computing even existed, let alone computer generated animation. Actors had to act in those days. The crappy special effects did not matter that much, because there was an actual story with characters in it. All this is entirely possible now, but maybe the talent is getting smothered by the commercial dross. Sorry. Totally off topic.