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Mars Space

Elon Musk Says Settlers Will Likely Die on Mars (popularmechanics.com) 214

"But is that such a bad thing?" asks Popular Mechanics: Earlier this week, Elon Musk said there's a "good chance" settlers in the first Mars missions will die. And while that's easy to imagine, he and others are working hard to plan and minimize the risk of death by hardship or accident. In fact, the goal is to have people comfortably die on Mars after a long life of work and play that, we hope, looks at least a little like life on Earth...

[T]he trip itself will take a year based on current estimates, and applicants to settlement programs are told to expect this trip to be one way. It follows, statistically, that there's an almost certain "chance" these settlers will die on Mars, because their lives will continue there until they naturally end. Musk is referring to accidental death in tough conditions, but people are likely to stay on Mars for the duration either way.

When Mars One opened applications in 2013, people flocked to audition to die on Mars after a one-way trip and a lifetime of settlement. As chemist and applicant Taylor Rose Nations said in a 2014 podcast episode: "If I can go to Mars and be a human guinea pig, I'm willing to sort of donate my body to science...."

Musks exact words: "I want to emphasize that this is a very hard and dangerous, difficult thing, not for the faint of heart. Good chance you'll die, it's going to be tough going, but it will be pretty glorious if it works out."
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Elon Musk Says Settlers Will Likely Die on Mars

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  • Away (Score:3, Funny)

    by Randseed ( 132501 ) on Sunday September 06, 2020 @02:50AM (#60478342)
    Did he just binge watch "Away" on Netflix?
    • by Anonymous Coward

      “Men wanted for hazardous journey. Low wages, bitter cold, long hours of complete darkness. Safe return doubtful. Honor and recognition in event of success.”

  • So? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by backslashdot ( 95548 ) on Sunday September 06, 2020 @02:54AM (#60478346)

    That's been the case with every new venture. Do you think the Polynesians would have discovered Hawaii if they didn't take these kind of risks? We have to allow people to take risks. It's their choice. There's a whole line of people willing to take the risk of going to Mars. You can't blame them, given the shit that happens on Earth. We wouldn't have airplanes or even cars if we didn't allow people to take risks.

    • Re:So? (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Generic User Account ( 6782004 ) on Sunday September 06, 2020 @03:40AM (#60478422)
      The problem isn't that people aren't allowed to take risks. They are welcome to take risks. It just turns out that people quite invariably expect to be bailed out if the result isn't what they envisioned. Actually taking risks and not burdening others with the fallout is very rare. Most people take risks Leroy Jenkins style.
      • It just turns out that people quite invariably expect to be bailed out if the result isn't what they envisioned.

        I really doubt that is true of anyone signing on to go to Mars. They would expect some effort if things go wrong, but know that some things may just go terribly wrong.

        I think the real deal about Mars is that there are many people who literally cannot envision that a human would go to Mars fully expecting to die, just to advance exploration and the reach of humanity. Some people cannot comprehend

    • by Mr. Dollar Ton ( 5495648 ) on Sunday September 06, 2020 @03:46AM (#60478426)

      The full story is that all settlers on Mars will die if you send them with the technologies we have and can see today. And they will die in unpleasant and rather quick ways.

      • The full story is that all settlers on Mars will die if you send them with the technologies we have and can see today. And they will die in unpleasant and rather quick ways.

        The full story is that all also happens here, on Earth. Why is this a bigger issue because "Mars"? Sure, some may die sooner there rather than later here, but there's no guarantee of a longer life here. For example, you're way more likely to die in an auto accident on Earth than Mars ... Everyone dies sooner or later, it's just a matter of how, when and where. (Speaking as a guy whose wife died 14 years ago of a brain tumor just seven weeks after diagnosis.)

        • by Mr. Dollar Ton ( 5495648 ) on Sunday September 06, 2020 @05:17AM (#60478518)

          No, it doesn't happen "here on Earth". There are very few enterprises that start with a guaranteed early lethal outcome of every participant, sorry.

          • Guaranteed? That would be putting them in orbit and then opening the hatch. A high likelihood of danger doesn't equate to a guaranteed failure and early death. Riding on submarines has the potential to be very dangerous and lethal to the entire crew in a mishap, but there doesn't appear to be an shortage of submariners.

            I suspect there will be no shortage of highly qualified applicants for an eventual human voyage to Mars either.

            • A high likelihood of danger doesn't equate to a guaranteed failure and early death.

              It depends on the probability. High risk is usually defined as probability of an unfortunate event being between 1 in 10 to 1 in 100, and is considered unacceptable risk in peace time.

              Riding on submarines has the potential to be very dangerous and lethal to the entire crew in a mishap, but there doesn't appear to be an shortage of submariners.

              Riding a submarine is restricted to military staff with special training, the topic here is "settlers", people who want to get their ass to Mars and have a life there.

              I suspect there will be no shortage of highly qualified applicants for an eventual human voyage to Mars either.

              Depends on your definition of "qualified". It is quite unlikely that people qualified to estimate risks will go without a significant compensation that can offse

          • No, it doesn't happen "here on Earth". There are very few enterprises that start with a guaranteed early lethal outcome of every participant, sorry.

            He obviously never played Oregon trail.

            • No, it doesn't happen "here on Earth". There are very few enterprises that start with a guaranteed early lethal outcome of every participant, sorry.

              He obviously never played Oregon trail.

              He needs to experiment with dysentery.

          • Maybe not in the modern era, probably because we're all too comfortable in our lives and lost our taste for real adventure, but for a large portion of human history, there were many enterprises that started with a high lethal risk to everyone involved.

            • Every on Earth is at least guaranteed air and more or less survivable temperatures, most missions are guaranteed food and water, and many even a way back -- all of that with local resources that you don't have to carry on your back from your destination.

              None of that is available for the imaginary stay on Mars, and then you have the road there, which is even worse.

        • everyone dies (Score:5, Insightful)

          by v1 ( 525388 ) on Sunday September 06, 2020 @08:03AM (#60478754) Homepage Journal

          Everyone dies sooner or later, it's just a matter of how, when and where.

          basically this. I'm mot going to live forever. And if things stay on track for me, I don't think I'm scheduled to make any serious contributions to the future before I go to ground. So if helping with the eventual colonization of Mars shaves a few years off my life, I'd be totally OK with helping in the effort.

        • > Everyone dies sooner or later, it's just a matter of how, when and where.
          Also why, and what was accomplished with it. Which on Earth tend to be answered with "because I couldn't afford to delay it anymore" and "nothing".

      • by quenda ( 644621 )

        You make it sound like Klendathu.

        • by Mr. Dollar Ton ( 5495648 ) on Sunday September 06, 2020 @07:11AM (#60478648)

          It is a lot worse than the movie version at least. You could comfortably live on Klendathu until slaughtered by a bug. On Mars, you don't need bugs - there is nothing to breathe, it is significantly colder than the coldest place on Earth, and there is a constant stream of charged protons from the solar wind, which creates a mild neutron flux in addition to the 4-500 mSv you got getting there if you were very lucky, and let me know which place on Earth is worse.

          The Red forest in Chernobyl in winter is a very cosy, healthy and comfortable place in comparison.

          • They should require each and every pioneer to spend a full 2 years in the most possible realistic simulation of Mars before being allowed to embark on the trip. This would not only be fair to them but would reduce the chances of problems down the road.
            • They could start by making a realistic spaceship simulator and stuffing a bunch of settlers with an avatar of Elon Musk for 6 months.

              See if anything comes out alive and sane.

            • They should require each and every pioneer to spend a full 2 years in the most possible realistic simulation of Mars before being allowed to embark on the trip. This would not only be fair to them but would reduce the chances of problems down the road.

              That would be an interesting story arc in a Mars colonization novel. Oh wait...

      • Sigh. Lets see.
        Rockets that can travel there.
        Nuclear reactors that are capable of going there. Solar and geothermal energy are both possible there.
        Bigelow with their large number of habitats. Systems for recycling water, air, etc.
        3D printers that work with plastic, metals, even make small circuit boards.
        Medical robotics for working on ppl, as well as working science remotely.

        We actually have most everything needed.What is not done is put together and fully tested all around. Doing it at South Pol
        • Why the south pole rather than the north? The north has far more water ice and a higher atmospheric pressure thanks to the lower altitude.

      • Oh? What vital technology is missing?

        We've already proven we can keep people alive for years in the far harsher environment in orbit, and while numerous health problems develop we have reason to be optimistic that they would be minimal to nonexistent on Mars (though only manned missions will find out for sure)

        We've already got the technology to extract water and oxygen from the Martian air - though mining water from ice caps will be necessary for rapid growth. It hasn't been field tested yet, but the atmo

        • Oh? What vital technology is missing?

          All of them. Most importantly nothing that can ensure local supply of power, air, water and food, sufficient for a colony.

          We've already proven we can keep people alive for years in the far harsher environment in orbit,

          LOL, no. Radiation environment on Mars is harsher than "in orbit", and we have scheduled supply missions, which take just a few hours to get there, and are so expensive that even the richest nations cannot afford them for long. Moreover, we only keep a handful of carefully trained, highly paid individuals basically for show.

          Show me how this is relevant to a Martian settlement that can ex

          • You're not going to create a settlement until the initial outpost has established enough of an ecological base to support it. And the initial outpost will almost certainly have enough food stores from Earth to last for years while bioreactors and agriculture are established.

            Mars has cheap, convenient radiation shielding easily available everywhere (aka sand). There is absolutely no reason to have a harsher radiation environment within a Mars habitat than in the ISS. Heck, with just a little more effort t

    • The Polynesians had a much better pitch.
      The Polynesians pitch: Hey there's probably awesome fish over there and these asshole warlords won't follow us.
      Elon's pitch: A few of of you will have descendants with low bone density that will work harder to grow crops and likely be slaves for water and oxygen rations.
    • by tsa ( 15680 )

      Hawaii has food growing on it. Mars doesnâ(TM)t.

  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • The most difficult part in Musk's Mars plan in my opinion is making methane on Mars to refuel the first mission. That sounds quite risky to me. It's a pain in the ass to mine stuff on Earth, they are going to have to develop a lot of robotics tech to find, mine, and process CO2/water on the red planet.

      • It's probably easier to transport sufficient backup equipment to process local resources than to carry the necessary mass of propellant to Mars.
      • Tunnel borers that are self-contained chemical refineries. Starships made of stainless steel that readily convert to silo tanks. Seems like the thinking is already there.

      • They've already found water and CO2 on Mars - in addition to an ever-growing list of underground deposits, the Northern icecap contains about 1.6 million cubic kilometers of water ice, while the atmosphere provides nearly pure CO2 wherever you are.

        Meanwhile the risk is minimal except to the timeline, since the plan is not to send people until fuel production is well established.

    • O'Neill cylinders have incredible long-term potential - but they're also far beyond our current ability to build. And they face the problem that entropy is constantly trying to destroy them, while it's holding planets together. And you'll always eventually lose a war against entropy.

  • Exactly what he said: “Not for the faint of heart. Good chance you’ll die. And it’s going to be tough, tough going, but it’ll be pretty glorious if it works out.” It is a misleading, sensationalist title here on slashdot, WOW, people will die, on the way or on Mars too. Inducing the idea that Musk said something new. The risks will be enormous. But was the same for all explorers.
  • Catch 22 (Score:4, Insightful)

    by OpenSourced ( 323149 ) on Sunday September 06, 2020 @03:35AM (#60478412) Journal

    "If I can go to Mars and be a human guinea pig, I'm willing to sort of donate my body to science...."

    Same way as Groucho refused to join any club that would have him as a member, I'd suppose that any real one-way expedition to Mars would have to reject anybody that wanted to go in it.

    • This is part of the plot of Kim Stanley Robinson's Red Mars. Without giving too much away, part of the selection criteria is finding people crazy enough to want to go on an almost certainly one-way mission which may well kill them in short order, but sane enough to do useful work there, and also well-educated enough to do that work. That's a tall order both in fiction and in the real world, but with billions of people on the planet it's not impossible to fill, only very difficult.

      While it does plenty of han

  • by DrXym ( 126579 ) on Sunday September 06, 2020 @04:14AM (#60478454)
    On the plus side, your mummified corpse will have enjoy a long life as a signpost for future manned missions just like they do on Mount Everest.
  • Volunteers for Mars accept they'll die on Mars, the question is how long they'll live. If they will die during reentry they'll say thanks but no. They'll want to survive at least a few years. They will want an environment which is good enough at recycling and harvesting to last them years. Getting to that level is already a major challenge.

  • So Mars doesnt make me immortal? damn, canceling my trip NOW!
  • After all, everybody dies.

  • "it will be pretty glorious if it works out."

    I sure hope Elon chooses to be part of that glory first-hand, as that would convince me that at least he believed what he was saying. I suspect, however, that that is not the case.

  • Please, can Elon Musk & his fellow "settlers" go into training for his mission to Mars now? You know, so that they're well prepared for living in isolation, with poor communication (long delays between sending & receiving transmissions), under arduous environmental conditions, living on monotonous, bland food, etc.. Can we stick them in a "simulator" somewhere remote where they can give press conferences & tweets to a simulated* audience?

    *The simulated part is very important. It won't be authent

    • Antarctica comes to mind, with deliberately delayed communications. You can't grow any veg in Antarctica, as far as I know, except under indoor conditions. I do not know if anybody has tried rearing food animals, birds, or seafood in Antarctica. I think the settlements there are totally dependent on external supplies, which would not work on Mars.

      And if you think the atmosphere is breathable in Antarctica, then I can refer you to a Russian friend, who worked at a nuclear power station in central Russia. The

  • ...is "Go kill yourselves creating a colony for me so that my descendants can own yours. I'm so looking forward to levying that oxygen tax!"

  • I can't speak for the hundreds of thousands of historical explorers that braved new and dangerous lands for...well, mostly money and power...but I'm pretty sure they didn't answer an ad like he's offering. Even contemporary astronauts, pilots and scientists have a fairly strong sense of self-preservation and don't go into a project with the understanding they won't come out the other side. The man is an idiot who is asking for the ultimate sacrifice so his name can be emblazoned on the pantheon of the his
    • Exactly! Is he looking for explorers and people willing to expand the envelope, or is he looking for the equivalent of arrow-fodder?

    • I can't speak for the hundreds of thousands of historical explorers that braved new and dangerous lands for...well, mostly money and power...but I'm pretty sure they didn't answer an ad like he's offering.

      They absolutely did, with the exception being that Musk is probably being much more honest than most of them. Every long sea voyage undertaken at the time of historical exploration was a potential chance to die, even before you got to the other end of the trip and encountered the natives... who themselves generally risked their lives on unknown journeys to get there before you, in even more marginal conditions.

  • Apparently Elon is willing to send wave after wave of his own men...
    Where have I heard this before?

  • ...do we really want a man who considers human life expendable running an automobile company?
  • Discussions of "colonizing Mars" involve a great deal of distraction from the real fundamental problem - what is our experience (or lack of it) in operating a biosphere in a near vacuum far from Earth?

    The date the largest and longest running experiment of this kind has been the International Space Station (ISS) - which normally houses six people long term. The cost of keeping one person on the ISS is roughly, in round numbers, about a billion dollars a year. It it the full time job of at least two people (w

  • Still a lot of useful work to be done settling earth? Want to extend and protect humanities chance to become staa Star voyaging species? Use your engineering skills to make life on earth more robust and durable.

  • So what Musk said is expected and shouldn't be controversial.

    Here's a more interesting prediction: people will hate living on Mars. They'll get there, spend one week ooh-ing and aah-ing over their accomplishment, and then it will hit them they are now living in the most backwards middle-of-nowhere nothing-to-do BFE hick town in all human history, and they can't even go outside without spending several hours suiting up first, and at considerable peril and expense even then. Within 6 months there won't be

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