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Medicine Government United States

National Mask Mandate Could Save 5 Percent of GDP, Economists Say 481

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Washington Post: After a late-spring lull, daily coronavirus cases in the United States have again hit record highs, driven by resurgent outbreaks in states such as Florida, Arizona and California. Hospitals in Houston are already on the brink of being overwhelmed, and public health experts worry the pandemic's body count will soon again be climbing in tandem with the daily case load. The dire situation has raised the specter of another round of state-level stay-at-home orders to halt the pandemic's spread and caused a number of governors to pause or reverse their ongoing reopening plans. Against this backdrop, a team of economists at investment bank Goldman Sachs has published an analysis suggesting more painful shutdowns could be averted if the United States implements a nationwide mask mandate.

"A face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP," the team, led by the company's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, writes. It's worth noting the authors of the report are economists and not public health experts. Their primary motivation is to protect the economic interests of Goldman Sachs's investors, which is why they're interested in the effects of federal policy on gross domestic product. But their findings are in line with a number of other published studies on the efficacy of masks. The Goldman Sachs report notes the United States is a global outlier with respect to face mask use, which is widespread in Asia and currently mandated in many European countries. Though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention "recommends" the use of masks in public and 20 states plus the District of Columbia have implemented their own mandates, there is no binding national policy, with wide regional variations in mask use around the country.
"We estimate that statewide mask mandates gradually raise the percentage of people who 'always' or 'frequently' wear masks by around 25 [percentage points] in the 30+ days after signing," the authors write. "Our numerical estimates are that cumulative cases grow 17.3% per week without a mask mandate but only 7.3% with a mask mandate, and that cumulative fatalities grow 29% per week without a mask mandate but only 16% with a mask mandate."
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National Mask Mandate Could Save 5 Percent of GDP, Economists Say

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  • Seems logical (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Pascal Sartoretti ( 454385 ) on Tuesday June 30, 2020 @03:20PM (#60247794)
    This proposal makes perfect sense. It serves the interest of Goldman Sachs's investors, as well the economics interests of everybody else. And it is good for public health. And it does not cost a lot. And countries like Japan seem to do not so bad by just wearing masks.

    How could a sensible government be against this ?
    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      How could a sensible government be against this ?

      "A sensible government", can't say I have ever seen one of those...

    • Re:Seems logical (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Tuesday June 30, 2020 @03:27PM (#60247814)

      The more interesting question is, how could a sensible person be against it? There's a non-invasive method to allow everyone to get back to work, get the economy back online while at the same time staying relatively safe (well, as safe as you can be), provided people use those masks sensibly.

      What exactly seems to be the effin' problem?

      • Re:Seems logical (Score:5, Informative)

        by war4peace ( 1628283 ) on Tuesday June 30, 2020 @03:49PM (#60247924)

        What exactly seems to be the effin' problem?

        All the idiots.

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by dgatwood ( 11270 )

        The more interesting question is, how could a sensible person be against it? There's a non-invasive method to allow everyone to get back to work, get the economy back online while at the same time staying relatively safe (well, as safe as you can be), provided people use those masks sensibly.

        What exactly seems to be the effin' problem?

        The problem is that you are assuming sensible people. Many on the right truly believe that all of these coronavirus deaths are made up, and that this is all a plot to ensure that their dear leader does not get reelected. To someone who believes those sorts of conspiracy theories, refusing to wear a mask becomes a legitimate political protest against a Democrat hoax.

        This has, of course, been made worse by right-wing media outlets that have systematically supported and even promoted such insane conspiracy t

        • Re:Seems logical (Score:4, Insightful)

          by Kernel Kurtz ( 182424 ) on Tuesday June 30, 2020 @05:35PM (#60248340)

          The problem is that you are assuming sensible people. Many on the right truly believe that all of these coronavirus deaths are made up, and that this is all a plot to ensure that their dear leader does not get reelected. To someone who believes those sorts of conspiracy theories, refusing to wear a mask becomes a legitimate political protest against a Democrat hoax.

          If people are that easily deluded it should be entirely possible to step it up a notch and convince the right that things like cancer screening, prophylactic heart medications, and regular checkups are all part of a liberal plot as well. Might as well play to your enemies weaknesses.

        • The problem is trust much more than stupidity. And the lack of trust of people in government is not simply caused by right wing media outlets, it is more a symptom of government becoming less trustworthy.

          The election of trump is in that respect a symptom - more than it being the problem - and it certainly isn't the solution that some voters hoped it to be.

      • The more interesting question is, how could a sensible person be against it?

        I found this argument to be quite particularly convincing [youtube.com]. It's the nuance she conveys that really gets me, although the overall sophistication of the argument is deep, yet accessible to the common listener, without any scientific expertise in virology.

      • What exactly seems to be the effin' problem?

        Because selfishness has been confused with freedom in America. Acting selfishly demonstrates an ability to exercise one's freedom, and therefore viewed as patriotic.

        Acting selfishly may be your right, but it certainly isn't patriotic to harm your fellow citizen.

      • Re:Seems logical (Score:4, Interesting)

        by nightflameauto ( 6607976 ) on Tuesday June 30, 2020 @04:30PM (#60248110)

        In America it's been turned into a political football. And politics is completely septic and caustic in America.

        There are literally people that believe, truly, that since someone they disagree with politically wears masks most of the time they are in public, that they can't POSSIBLY be seen wearing one or someone might believe they're "on the same team." And we can't have that.

        Literally everything for some folks comes down to political lines.

        Then we also have those that just hang on Trump's every word and he's been saying, and is still saying, that masks just don't matter. That the virus really isn't that bad. That it's either all made up, or it's being inflated by the media to make him look bad. Because everything is about him and how it reflects on him. Not the number of folks infected. Not the number of folks dying or dead. Not the number of folks hospitalized or missing the chance at medical treatment for other illnesses because hospitals are full. It's all about him.

        And for the trifecta of fail, we've also got a large number of folks in this country that just plain don't give a damn in any way, shape, or form. It's summer, and they want to party. Damn the consequences.

        This pandemic hit among the perfect storm. Science deniers will put absolute blind faith in whatever sounds best to them and fits their preconceived inner dialog. And there are those who try to research things and just see completely mixed signals from every direction and end up frustrated and giving up. There's no strong message from leadership. There's so little faith in our government that even when they do try to take a positive step you have nearly half the population screaming bloody murder over it.

        It's up to us as individuals to do the right thing in this moment. And sadly, we're witnessing what happens when we leave the big decisions that affect us as a society up to individuals.

        I think it's going to get worse before it gets better. We're just not equipped as a country to weather this storm with the right attitude. Too many people too scared by any rule coming from any direction to ever follow them. Even the simple ones. There are even people that truly believe that wearing a mask will kill you. How do you work with someone that's taken that stance? How do you even try to inform them when all factual information hits the wall of "but I already KNOW this!"?

      • by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

        The more interesting question is, how could a sensible person be against it? There's a non-invasive method to allow everyone to get back to work, get the economy back online while at the same time staying relatively safe (well, as safe as you can be), provided people use those masks sensibly.

        What exactly seems to be the effin' problem?

        Well, it starts at the top and if they don't want to wear masks, well, that convinces a lot of people to not do it as well. Leading by example, really.

        And it doesn't help that

      • Re:Seems logical (Score:4, Informative)

        by aqui ( 472334 ) on Tuesday June 30, 2020 @07:03PM (#60248676)

        The other fact perhaps to consider is whether it makes sense to argue about this at all or whether we should look at the hard data:

        https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/da... [jhu.edu]

        UK + US + Sweden all countries not effected by COVID at the beginning (unlike Italy and Spain) with limited coordinated responses (staying home, wearing masks, physical distancing, testing and contact tracing) and a highly "individualist" mindset, make the "top 10"

        Death's per 100K
        UK: 65 (4th worst)
        Sweden: 53 (7th worst)
        USA: 38 (9th worst)

        By contrast Countries with quick non politicized, expert based response, with a more collaborative culture:
        Canada: 23 (almost 1/2 the deaths per 100K of the USA)
        Germany: 11 (almost a 1/4 the deaths per 100K of the USA)
        Taiwan: 0.03 (almost a 1/1000! the deaths per 100K of the USA)

        If you think about it instead of 125K dead Americans if the USA had done as well as the Canadians (and they had issues with their old age homes) there could be
        60.000 Less dead mothers, fathers, grandparents, nieces, nephews etc...

        With numbers like that you should put you mask on even if there might be some uncertainty about how much a mask protects you.

        I mean think about it in terms of if someone else wearing a mask could reduce the number of sick and dead, and save the life of someone _you_ love,
        wouldn't you do the same for them? (Pretty much everyone has Parents, Siblings, Children, Nieces Nephews, friends etc... they care about).

        If you don't want to wear the mask for yourself then wear it for them.

        And oh wash your fricken hands... like your mom told you to when you were growing up.

  • Overwhelmed? (Score:5, Informative)

    by jbmartin6 ( 1232050 ) on Tuesday June 30, 2020 @03:25PM (#60247806)

    Hospitals in Houston are already on the brink of being overwhelmed

    Hospitals in Houston have repeatedly stated they are not close to being overwhelmed. [memorialhermann.org] In fact, the article linked here by TFA [khou.com] says the same thing, nice job Washington Post.

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by gtall ( 79522 )

      Ya, well, both articles are dated June 25, that's five days ago as I post this. Nice job scrounging dated info and passing it off as somehow relevant.

    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      Hospitals in Houston have repeatedly stated they are not close to being overwhelmed. [memorialhermann.org]

      This was 6 days ago, an eternity when you have exponential growth. Just ask some Italian cities.

      • The second article I linked is the one cited by the Washington Post as the source for their statement.
    • Re:Overwhelmed? (Score:5, Informative)

      by b0bby ( 201198 ) on Tuesday June 30, 2020 @04:33PM (#60248114)

      According to:
      https://www.npr.org/transcript... [npr.org] ...at least one hospital is back to shutting down other services to make way for Covid patients. Not sure if that's "overwhelmed", but it's not good for patients.

      "So when we were at the point where the volumes of COVID were down, we were able to open up many of our other services. And what we found when we opened up a lot of our services is that many people had waited for a very long time to seek medical care, and they were very sick. And so we were able to treat many of those patients both in clinics and in the hospital and in all of our services.

      We kind of looked at each other and said we should never do that again. We should never close down all of our services because it was detrimental to the health of Houston. It was dangerous for people to wait to seek needed care. And so what's been very hard is to, you know, yesterday, send out yet another series of notes closing down services further because we have no choice because we have to transition units into COVID to take care of the population.

      So do we have the beds? Yes. Fortunately, at this point, we have not had to put up tents or field hospitals. But each day it's more and more."

  • by jenningsthecat ( 1525947 ) on Tuesday June 30, 2020 @03:42PM (#60247872)

    Here in Canada some of us call such people 'covidiots'. There would be some comfort at seeing this as evolution in action if it weren't for the fact that they're endangering the health and possibly the lives of the rest of us.

    There may be an unrecognized factor that makes people who don't wear masks even more likely to get sick and to spread the virus. I suspect a lot of them also engage in other risky behaviour, such as not practicing good hand sanitation and not quarantining or cleaning everything that comes into the house.

    • I figure that anyone not wearing a mask in public has a 90% probability of being a self-centered jackass. I figure there is about a 10% chance that they are not wearing because they have a legit respiratory issue (Asthma, COPD, Etc.)
      For the record, I have mild COPD, and I manage to wear a mask in public just fine. I don't like it, but I do wear it.
      If everyone who could, would wear a mask in public for a month this whole pandemic would likely be over.
  • It could potentially save many lives too, and a lot of time being sick and hospitalized (which will get people back to work faster). But, being America, gains in GDP are far more important than ensuring the health of our "human capital stock".

  • by DogDude ( 805747 )
    From a very good source, I've heard that masks are bad for people at Trump rallies. People should definitely NOT wear masks at Trump rallies.
  • by Voice of satan ( 1553177 ) on Tuesday June 30, 2020 @03:53PM (#60247958)

    Now that the money speaks will the republicans accept that basic hygiene measure ? Judging by the paranoid comments i juts read in this thread i doubt it. I like it here in Texas. Big salary, low taxes, good private schools. But regarding pandemics we totally suck and behave like little children. Asians must make fun of us.

  • We demand our freeeeeeeedom!
  • >"National Mask Mandate Could Save 5 Percent of GDP, Economists Say"

    Only problem being that it would be unconstitutional (in the USA). It is not a Federal power. Of course, that fact never seems to stop much of anything...

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