Flu Virus With 'Pandemic Potential' Found in China (bbc.com) 241
A new strain of flu which has the potential to become pandemic has been identified in China by scientists. From a report: It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say. The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak. They say it has "all the hallmarks" of being highly adapted to infect humans - and needs close monitoring. As it's new, people could have little or no immunity to the virus. A bad new strain of influenza is among the top disease threats that experts are watching for, even as the world attempts to bring to an end the current coronavirus pandemic. The last pandemic flu the world encountered - the swine flu outbreak of 2009 that began in Mexico - was less deadly than initially feared, largely because many older people had some immunity to it, probably because of its similarity to other flu viruses that had circulated years before.
I think we're boned. (Score:5, Insightful)
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Re: I think we're boned. (Score:2)
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Firstly, remember that the number of recovered only matters if they gain immunity for longer than each wave of infections takes to pass through the population. At this point there are conflicting findings to that regard.
Secondly, remember that 'recovered' does not always mean 'back to full health'. There are significant numbers of COVID-infected with residual lung scarring and other organ damages even in mild or asymptomatic cases. Coming back to my first point, people with preexisting conditions are much m
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But their genes might survive.
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Mother nature had nothing to do with it. We are a bad idea, but we chose to be, all by ourselves.
Re:I think we're boned. (Score:5, Insightful)
Do you think fire arts or some strain of virus care at all if they take over and devastate every ecosystem?
Re:I think we're boned. (Score:5, Insightful)
That's convenient, humans are also the only animal with the technology to render the biosphere incapable of supporting humanity.
Unfortunately, not enough of humanity cares about our impact to prevent it.
Bend over, here comes mother nature
Who needs technology (Score:2)
That's convenient, humans are also the only animal with the technology to render the biosphere incapable of supporting humanity.
Nature can quite easily render the biosphere incapable of supporting not just one species but millions. Just look at the dinosaurs or, even more scary, the Permian mass extinction which killed 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial ones.
Human technology might be dangerous but nature can do much, much worse.
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Goalposts over here, your kick over there, NT
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Unfortunately, not enough of humanity cares about our impact to prevent it.
If you believe that, then leave.
You first. No, I insist.
Seriously, you are impacting the biosphere with your presence.
That's correct. So? If you get near a point, make it.
But you won't because you are a fucker like Obama
Oh boy, here we go.
who buys a $18 million beachfront home on a FUCKING ISLAND after telling us all rising water are going to flood the coasts.
You're just jealous because he can enjoy it while it's there, and you can't. I'm jealous too, but I don't imagine wild bullshit because of it.
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Q: How do you tell when a snowflake has been triggered?
A: THEY MISS THE SHIFT KEY
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I once bough a used Televideo 950 terminal that only typed in ALL CAPS. It turned out that a previous owner had soldered a wire bridge over the caps lock key switch terminals.
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THAT'S AWESOME I SHOULD DO IT BECAUSE IT WOULD MAKE MY LIFE MUCH EASIER
lameness lameness lameness lameness lameness lameness lameness lameness lameness lameness lameness lameness lameness lameness
That's probably not a good example (Score:2)
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Re:I think we're boned. (Score:5, Informative)
The list of possible things that can kick humanity in the nuts is large. Here's just a sample:
Astronomical:
- Meteor/Comet
- Supernova pointing the wrong end at us
- Black hole or brown dwarf passes by and bleeps up Earth's orbit. (We'd spot a brighter star by now.)
- Sun pukes giant plasma storm, knocks out mass wiring
Earthly:
- Large volcano
- Plagues
- Giant methane bubble burst
Artificial:
- Intentional nuclear war
- Mistakes that lead to nuclear war (been close multi times)
- Mass hacking that jams most systems
- Artificial plagues
- Global warming
- Justin Bieber becomes President
Depressed yet?
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- Justin Bieber becomes President
Which is worse, a pop boy star, or a reality TV star?
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Him being an artist makes the possibility of him being a leftist nightmare quite substantial.
Frankly, I believe if people vote Biden this year, America is fucked sideways. Not that Trump is a good man but damned if this isn't the choice between Newspeak/thought crimes and individualism.
I sure as hell would have preferred a better champion for individualism but the alternative scares me way more than I'd like to admit.
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The choice in the USA is between the center right and the far right. If you really are so scared, you can thank the siege mentality propaganda of your chosen party for that. They want you to be because scared voters are easy to manipulate.
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The main difference between the far right in Europe and the far right in the USA is that bible thumpers are less common here, except for Poland, that is.
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I was fine til the Bieber part...Thanks for the nightmares!
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I was really depressed there for a minute. Then I remembered that Bieber was born in Canada so he's not eligible.
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Easier. Just merge the two countries. Canada could be about 6 or 7 states. Then he'd be a native born citizen. I expect Quebec might hold out for separatism, though.
Those are all low-probability events (Score:2)
You can easily construct a list of crazy things that could wipe us out, but it only sounds scary until you put probability numbers next to each of those lines.
The astronomical threats are astronomically unlikely to occur within the next thousand years, let alone the next hundred.
Global warming and pandemics are the only real threats to mankind, but keep in mind 50% of people still survived the black plague. A pandemic won't be rosy but it won't wipe us out either.
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I am starting to think mother nature has decided we humans were a bad idea and has decided to get rid of us.
Agent Smith [wikipedia.org] had the same idea:
I'd like to share a revelation that I've had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species and I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed and the only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You're a plague and we are the cure.
Re: I think we're boned. (Score:2)
The only problem with his books is that overpopulation won't happen. They did not know that in the 90ies. So most of his story flies out of the window. Turns out that human population does not follow food availability (this is his core tenet developed further in 'the story of B').
Just the opposite in fact, as seen in every developed country.
I totally agree however that there is nothing inherently wrong with human nature and that thing from the Matrix is just the directors injecting their anti human BS. Rece
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https://www.amazon.com/Giant-M... [amazon.com]
"giant meteor 2020: just end it, already"
kinda says it all.
Re:I think we're boned. (Score:5, Funny)
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I'm assuming you're including yourself in the 100M?
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Oh really? That's your stupid conclusion to a pandemic of a virus that's similar to many others that have been around for millions of years? Hell there have been flus and colds in the past that have killed more than this thing.
Meanwhile, people are living longer than in the past and our quality of life has skyrocketed upwards, clearly nature is loving us more and more.
Those who died from corona mostly are those with one foot in the grave already, they'd have died in the next flu season or next. But peop
Mother nature hasn't decided anything (Score:3)
We know exactly how to solve these pandemics and we know it works because we've done it before. It takes large scale, decisive and expensive action. We haven't been doing it because we didn't want to spend the money on it, and beca
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It is simply because technology got so good that we can identify and detect these different viruses. 30 years ago, we simply would have no mechanism for even identifying Covid-19, much less different variants of virus in pigs.
Without the capability to test, Covid-19 would be just another (very bad) flu/pneumonia. After some weeks/months, most doctors may notice a trend in the symptoms and identify it as a new disease, but only those 10% patients that needs to go to hospital would be diagnosed, so the numb
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Nah... I would take my Gamma Ray Burst (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma-ray_burst) for one shot kill. A supernova explodes lightyears away, and as soon as we see it, our oceans start boiling.
Better yet, a false vacuum correction (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_vacuum). There won't even be a warning, or notice. The reality itself will unwind, and there will be new kind of physics. It would then be a problem for an entirely different brand of universe.
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Crap. Final Fantasy 7 was REAL!? (Spoiler warning for a 23 year old game: humanity doesn't exist anymore. Not commenting on the remake since it's just all speculation).
Re: I think we're boned. (Score:2)
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Never in history has so many of a single species of large (>20 kilos) mammal had this large of population. The worldwide numbers of the seemingly "unending" herds of reindeer and wildebeest are smaller than the population of Shanghai. Do you know what happens when rabbits arrive on an island where there are no predators? Their population grows out of control until they've eaten everything, at which point it collapses and they may go extinct.
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But OTH, somewhere else it would be labelled "sexist", I suppose, it should be"parent [A,B] nature" or something like that..
There's already heavy disease-surpression going on (Score:5, Insightful)
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The same measures we have in place for COVID19 work on pretty much every other virus
In other words, the U.S. is screwed. That's all you had to say.
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No, we're not going to do all the absurd bullshit we're doing now for a mere influenze virus. If it looks like it will be a problem we'll put it in the next flu season vaccine batch, problem solved. *yawn*
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Poe's law is strong in this one. I *think* you were being sarcastic, though I'm not sure. Unfortunately, lots of people will react in just the way you state, despite the fact that influenza can be worse than COVID-19. That hasn't happened within the century, but it can happen.
OTOH, we are fairly well practiced at building influenza vaccines, so once we know it's coming it should be possible to prepare. But we *do* need to pay attention.
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Re: There's already heavy disease-surpression goin (Score:2)
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The same measures we have in place for COVID19 work on pretty much every other virus, so if this flu does start spreading among humans it's not going to spread very quickly.
Or perhaps we are favouring the evolution of more highly infectious diseases
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Fortunately it's just a case of bad reporting. The paper is behind a paywall but this Twitter thread has lots of extracts and some commentary: https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstr... [twitter.com]
TL;DR it's been around since 2016 and no need to panic.
The important part: (Score:5, Informative)
While this new virus is not an immediate problem, he says: "We should not ignore it".
There is currently no outbreak and it's not spreading like crazy but it's something that will be a problem if we ignore it. This is a variant of influenza, so it's not going to take nearly as much effort to develop a vaccine for it. No need to panic... yet.
Re:The important part: (Score:5, Insightful)
It's going to be a problem for the US.
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This is a variant of influenza, so it's not going to take nearly as much effort to develop a vaccine for it.
just out of curiosity where did you get your Ph.D in Immunology?
If it was so fucking easy to make a vaccine we wouldn't still have upwards to 60 thousand people dying of Influenza every year.
There were warnings years ago that a corona virus from bats could make the jump to humans and start killing people.
Do you know what was done with that warning?
That is right; nothing.
And here we are.
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If it was so fucking easy to make a vaccine we wouldn't still have upwards to 60 thousand people dying of Influenza every year.
Those 60 thousand people aren't being killed by a strain of influenza that they have been vaccinated against.
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Based on our average life expectancy, we (USA) have better than four million dying every year of all causes. So the flu amounts to 1.5% of our annual deaths. And Covid-19, so far, is 2.5% of our annual deaths. If we continue the trend of the first six months through the next six months, covid-19 and the flu combined will be maybe 5% of our total deaths for the year.
In other word
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You are off by over a million. About 0.8% of the population of the USA dies each year. In 2019 it was about 2.8 million. [cdc.gov]
Also, if left to spread uncontrolled, CoVID-19 would infect 60% to 80% of the population and could easily kill 2% of those infected (the case fatality rate* for the world stands at 5%, more for areas that had their hospitals overwhelmed), for around 4 to 5 million dead in the U
I think folks are panicking because we saw (Score:2)
It'd be like putting a vegetarian in charge of a steak house. It's not going to end well for anyone involved.
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There is currently no outbreak and it's not spreading like crazy but it's something that will be a problem if we ignore it.
Ok. Let's not ignore it.
Step 1. Ban travel to and from China.
"Oh Noes !!! you Rasist boogoolua boy ban him ban him noooooWWww!! Impeach that racist Russian plant too for everything including his illegal China travel ban !!"
Well. That escalated quickly.
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Yeah, you've had enough to drink tonight.
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Yeah, you've had enough to drink tonight.
Hardly. What really concerns my quite sober self is the most important thing of all. Step 0, in fact.
What shall we call this new virus??
Don't you dare allow yourself to even suspect it should in any way, directly, indirectly or even tangentially closer than three orders removed reference China. We must first identify the very first non-Chinese site where the virus appeared, preferably in some fly-over red state. The Wyoming Influenza 15-A!
No. No! I have it! The Mar-a-Lago 11-B! YES
That's it
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How about calling it something descriptive, straight from TFA, like:
The virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1 . . .
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quite a long history of naming bugs after where they first popped up, see Ebola, Spanish flu, etc.
The likelihood of the Spanish flu having originated in Spain is less than that of it originating in the US, or England.
It was called Spanish only because most other affected countries were in war, and controlled their media because announcement of a pandemic in the middle of a war would have been disastrous. So Spain, the one neutral country between many warring ones - became famous for it as they declared their problems as they saw.
So no, the long history is of naming bugs after whoever loses the informat
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"ohh and they are also being VERY Careful to ignore China forcing birth control on minorities it don't like"
I literally just watched a segment on that on the broadcast news last night. You don't know what you're talking about. Look at my surprised face!
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You do realize that the "Spanish flu" didn't first pop up in Spain, don't you?
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If they kill off a lot of pigs in China, it'll probably never spread. Question is whether they've got the balls to do it.
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Some of the most strident shriekers are only waiting until after November.
Please no! (Score:5, Funny)
Kill me, but please don't take my bacon.
Ya, but ... (Score:2)
Flu Virus With 'Pandemic Potential' Found in China
Trump has already labeled the coronavirus (aka: COVID-19) the "Kung Flu" so what's he going to call this one?
[... gets popcorn ready ...]
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How is this different than any other year? (Score:5, Informative)
This story seems like business as usual for the people who do influenza monitoring... researchers look for new strains which might become problematic; see which known strains are continuing to spread; and finally decide which strains should be included in the next round of vaccines.
I suspect the main reason this particular story is getting air time now is because everyone is hypersensitive regarding COViD-19.
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No, it's a bit more worrisome than usual, as it appears to be a novel flu virus to which people won't have had prior exposure. Some of those can be quite deadly. That said, if we recognize it in time, i.e. pay attention, then we can have a vaccine ready in time to deal with it. The key here is "pay attention to this and don't put all your attention on COVID". Do it right and there should be no big problem. do it wrong.... Well, best not to do it wrong.
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Dupe? (Score:5, Funny)
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Flu "pandemic" every year. (Score:2)
But, does it know ... (Score:2)
But, does it know precisely what you are protesting? Will it leave you alone if your politics are correct?
I mean, that seems like an important characteristic for a virus.
Oh no! (Score:5, Funny)
It's the aporkalypse!
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By the way, binary dude, this is where you and I might have some differences in opinion. I think that there will be ten plagues (more or less) before the election (coronavirus, race riots, censorship campaigns so far) and that they might try a second, more powerful bioweapon as "plague" number 4.
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"Where is Dr. Bob, D.C. when you need him?"
Why? Does this virus cause subluxations?
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Yes.
Re:Analysis (Score:4, Insightful)
China fighting the perfect war Not a single shot just let the west destroy itself with a few plagues it releases and doesn't even apologize for
This is a completely legitimate comment. It is completely on topic. There is no way, at zero it was overrated. It doesn't claim any sources that are deceptive and it's only a little bit trollish for mentioning China, but then China is currently the USA's most obvious serious adversary. The only thing really bad about it is that it's somewhat wrong, but not completely. Wrong comments deserve replies, not modding down to invisibility.
We've got a serious problem with initial mods here. Anyone who questions the Dear Orange Leader; anyone who questions the "it's just a flu" consensus; anyone who actually uses facts in their arguments gets reliably modded down. Often they get modded back, but by that time lots of damage is done to the debate and we end up in endless stupidity.
There are two reasons this is wrong. a) China isn't actually likely to do this. It's too insane. I'd expect this to come from e.g. North Korea and b) China and NK haven't yet shown a clear ability to develop vaccines so any attack will happen long after the current election cycle once they have their vaccine creation capability greatly improved.
This is a good way to think of the attack. It's really weird the way there's a group of people who have been accusing China of releasing SARS-COV-2 from a lab but at the same time keep claiming that this is just a flu and we shouldn't do anything. We should be glad the death rate is much lower than plague and treating this as a drill for future infections. At the same time, nobody should be making accusations they can't back up with sufficient evidence to be reasonable to take serious counter action.
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What this has shown is how pitifully unprepared we are for an actual bioweapon attack. Imagine an agent with this long an incubation time and this virulence but a 15-20% critical care need instead of 5%. The world's medical systems would have collapsed in a month and most of the economy shortly afterwards.
To analyze the first human genome cost billions, took thousands of people at top level research facilities around the world, and needed a decade to complete. Today you can spit in a cup, FedEx it to Fre
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Boogymen are fictional. Wannabe fascist dictators with bad fake tans, who have failed at everything they've ever tried, yet continue to con a small percentage of the population despite overwhelming evidence of massive corruption, are quite real, however unlikely and preposterous that may seem.
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You're funny when you are angry and panicking. None of this is turning out how you thought it would, is it? Tired of all that winning yet?
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You aren't going to die of COVID-19...
Sorry the COVID death rate wasn't high enough...
Make your mind up. Is Covid-19 killing people or not?
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None of my friends have died of Covid, but some of their friends have. Meanwhile Covid is now the leading cause of death in the US...
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Meanwhile Covid is now the leading cause of death in the US...
LOL, citation please? That is not even remotely true, not by a long shot.
In the US, about 3 million people die every year, but there's not as much media hysteria about most of the deaths. By year's end, COVID-19 has a decent shot at being a distant 3rd place, but it has a ways to go before it kills more people than cancer or heart disease.
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Well, if you really feel that way, go to it. Fortunately banks are pretty much ready to deal with the kind of attack you are planning. Hope nobody else gets hurt.
FWIW, you're the kind of person that keeps me from being an anarchist or a libertarian. (Well, one of the kinds of people.) I'd recommend meditation, but that generally requires a willingness to look at yourself, and a few years of work, to return many benefits. Still, if you feel up to it, even a simple breath awareness mediation can help a l
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Fuck all y'all. At this point I may just go on a bank robbing spree and see how many I can rack up before the pigs shoot me dead. Cleaner less annoying death than y'all faggots are in for.
A hobby, potentially lucrative, where having no face is an advantage.
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