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NASA Space

Why Did It Take NASA a Decade To Get Back Into Space? (hackaday.com) 150

An anonymous reader writes: When talking about the nine year gap since America last flew astronauts with their own spacecraft, it's often said that NASA didn't have a plan in place when they retired the Space Shuttle. But the reality is a lot more complicated than that. NASA was working on a new spacecraft and rocket, and even made a successful test flight two years before the last Shuttle flight, but the program ended up getting canceled when the White House Administration changed. A review concluded that completing the program "would cost at least $150 billion dollars, and even then, a return to the Moon or a mission to Mars in the foreseeable future was unlikely," according to the article. Money was instead allocated to private alternatives like Sierra Nevada's Dream Chaser spaceplane as well as Boeing's CST-100 Starliner -- though in the end it was SpaceX's Crew Dragon which would launch the next American rocket carrying American astronauts into space. "The dark horse soundly beat the entrenched giants," the article concludes, "and the democratization of space has never been closer.

"It's hard to predict what the next decade of human spaceflight will look like, but there's no question it's going to be a lot more exciting than the previous one."
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Why Did It Take NASA a Decade To Get Back Into Space?

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  • by Joe_Dragon ( 2206452 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @04:38PM (#60154162)

    years of funding cuts!

    • Good answer, if a bit terse... I would add bureaucratic inertia and corporate capture, along with a lack of political will which may be attributable to a lack of big, "visionary" human missions. Just going around in circles in the ISS isn't all that inspiring, compared to walking on other worlds.

      But now that we're back to launching people -- or more precisely, now that launching people is no longer the exclusive domain of governments -- the future looks brighter than ever for space exploration and developme

      • by ShieldW0lf ( 601553 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @05:08PM (#60154256) Journal

        I find this article summary hilarious.

        This doesn't represent the "democratization of space". If Elon Musk had to rely on the popular vote to gain power, he would have spent his life bagging peoples groceries.

        This represents the complete and absolute opposite of the "democratization of space". This represents the victory of capitalism and private enterprise over democracy and state run enterprise in the arena of space.

        • by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @06:28PM (#60154478)
          Comment removed based on user account deletion
          • by Jane Q. Public ( 1010737 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @08:15PM (#60154704)
            I wouldn't say the "only" thing was cost+ contracting.

            The whole contracting model was broken, and enslaved (or itself inslaving) the giant bureaucracy that was NASA.

            NASA was ordered to straighten up and slim down its bloated, dysfunctional bureaucracy after that was deemed responsible for Challenger explosion in 1986, but there is no real evidence that it ever really did clean itself up.

            Our latest successes were in large part due to another change at NASA, which emphasized private, and to some degree competitive, corporate efforts.

            One of the benefits of that approach was bypassing much of that very overgrown NASA bureaucracy.

            Earlier, it was a new Presidential administration which made the decision to divert money from the space program. What the summary does not mention is that it was planned to use that money on "social welfare" projects instead. The politicians said there was not enough money to do both, so they decided on the social programs instead.

            Which is complete BS. Those b**ds in D.C. waste more money than the whole space program just about every day. It was never an either-or proposition.
          • SpaceX would not be profitable, and would have no real path to profitability without massive government spending on both NASA and military satellite launches, both of which we could continue just fine without.

            Nonsense. Commercial satellite launches would have given them "a path to profitability" without any government contracts whatsoever. They would, however, have needed to raise far more cash from investors, and it would have taken much longer for them to become profitable. They likely would not have had the funds to start Starship/Super Heavy development for many years still, and the Starlink project would probably be similarly delayed. I'm glad that NASA did contract with spacex; it has greatly benefited

            • If SpaceX needed to be more profitable, they would bill just as much as their competitors bill even though it costs them a hell of a lot less since they're the only aerospace entity that has the capability of reusing first stage rockets.

          • It's not that simple either. SpaceX would not be profitable, and would have no real path to profitability without massive government spending on both NASA and military satellite launches, both of which we could continue just fine without.

            We'd be fine without the F35 program, too, but that costs a lot more than using SpaceX.

        • NASA and Space X need each other. If there's no market for what Space X is building then there's no Space X.

          NASA on the other hand will be researching and developing things like rovers, space probes, satellites, telescopes, space stations, or planetary and lunar habitats.

      • I think NASA culture was also not able to develop , or build new rocket technology or evolve it too. As far as I know, SpaceX is the first and only rocket manufacturer with reusable rockets. When NASA was in the rocket business, it was to develop ICBM's.
        • by GuB-42 ( 2483988 )

          Did you forget about the space shuttle? For me, it is the most impressive rocket ever built, fully reusable too, except for the external fuel tank. Its RS-25 engines are still best in class, and are expected to end up on SLS.

          It didn't turn out as well as expected, the refurbishment costs were so high it ended up costing more than disposable rockets. But one has to realize it was 40 years ago and using cutting edge technology. Despite their cost effective re-usability, Falcon rockets are actually using a mor

      • by sxpert ( 139117 )

        BULLSHIT
        SpaceX's program has mostly been financed by the government, about the same way the government financed the entirety of the Apollo or Shuttle programs, all manufactured by private entities.

    • by sjames ( 1099 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @04:57PM (#60154222) Homepage Journal

      More to the point, the NASA program was stuffed with too much pork to get off the ground. It's expensive to develop a spacecraft when the funding to do so is contingent on finding a way to award a contract in every single congressional district. IIRC, there was much grumbling when that no-name upstart SpaceX received funding. Not so much when the more pork compliant Boeing got a check.

      • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @05:26PM (#60154306)

        There is also the problem that the "sunk cost fallacy" doesn't work with political projects.

        After Apollo, NASA proposed building a "space truck" that would dramatically reduce the cost to space.

        The politicians bought into the vision and funded it.

        Yet pretty quickly it was obvious that it was going to be extremely expensive, and that the original engine proposal was infeasible. It would need extra rockets and a liquid H2 tank strapped onto the side. Since cryogenic tanks shed ice debris, this was a terrible idea and was recognized as such at the design stage.

        Yet the political buy-in was for a "space-truck", and since interest in space was fading, any attempt to say "we goofed" and change the plan would likely lead to cancellation or scaling back. So NASA chose to blunder forward toward disaster.

        TL;DR: Politicians shouldn't make technical decisions.

        • by Daemonik ( 171801 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @05:31PM (#60154322) Homepage
          Politicians bought into the "space truck" idea for the same reason they buy into things like the F-35, because they're promised nice pork to distribute around back home. It's never about "vision" or "will", it's how much money will get spread around, and frankly the American people could care less about walking on other planets unless they're getting a job out of it.
          • Yes, jobs (and money) for congressmen's home states are the reason the space shuttle was built and why the SLS is so very similar.

        • The real story about the Shuttle was that the key requirements, and ultimately the design, came from the military (this why it had to be a fragile space plane instead of a ballistic capsule) even though it was built with civilian funds. It is well established that the DOD and National Reconaissance Office actually led the Shuttle design process. The military even build a launch pad at Vandenburg Air Force Base for military launches. The push to complete the program when budget and schedule problems arose al

        • The main problem with the Space Shuttle design was the Air Force requirement for capability to return to US soil before completing a single orbit while launched into a polar orbit. The Shuttle has never even launched into a polar orbit. The AF should have had funded the whole project and used it and NASA should have had its own separe system.
    • And what funding they did have, was spent on a rudderless corporate welfare project called STS.

      God knows how much money is being thrown into that pit, and we *might* launch 3 of them before just contracting it out to SpaceX and ULA on Falcon Heavy and Delta-IV

      • STS was the space shuttle. SLS is the current boondoggle.

        It seems that the MIC just got too good at siphoning money out of the government. It took SpaceX to come in with a different mentality, with a drive to compete with only small sips from the pork spigot, to actually get shit done.

        I honestly don't see the SLS ever flying. Maybe 1 demo flight.

        SpaceX is so incredibly far ahead already, and they're going to be even further ahead by the time SLS gets to the launchpad. And if the SLS has one setback....

    • by Revek ( 133289 )
      This is the root cause of the problem. Nothing else really needs to be said.
    • by kriston ( 7886 )

      That and the two, yes, two, separate STS replacement projects that were both cancelled midstream.

    • Years of funding cuts, lack of clear objectives and lots and lots and lots of politics. Politics and internal fights for influence have destryoyed countless organizations - both public and privte.
    • Yes, but no.

      It was a deliberate decision to funnel the money into better endeavors than the Shuttle, because the shuttle was not a realistic solution for ongoing space exploration. The Shuttle had a good run, but it was over. Funding cuts in the late 90’s and early ‘00s did play a role, but that wasn’t the definitive reason.

    • Yes. The GOP House constantly did massive cuts to this. Had they not done so, it is likely that new space would have launched in 2017.
    • The U.S. had more important things to do. Like ensuring a steady flow of oil from the Middle East. Like transferring wealth from the have-nots to the haves. Who needs the Moon or Mars? We may have recently produced the world's first trillionaire! That's the kind of greatness America aspires to.
  • State lolly scramble of contracts with no regard to sensibility or optimisation.

    Will the Boeing manned craft (if it ever makes it) be affected by politics over SpaceX? SpaceX will be out in the cold if Boeing manage to get a working, if not expensive, system going; got to look after the donors...

    • got to look after the donors

      SpaceX is one of those donors. [opensecrets.org] And decades down the road they're just as likely to be as entrenched as Boeing. Those who forget history......

      • Also, SpaceX operates in California, Texas, and Florida.

        By numbers of Congressional representatives, they are #1, #2, and #3.

        Washington is #13.

        • Also, SpaceX operates in California, Texas, and Florida.

          By numbers of Congressional representatives, they are #1, #2, and #3

          Florida is more or less a requirement of orbital mechanics regardless of whether Congress is involved. Same goes for southern California. The closer you are the equator the more "assist" you get from the earth's rotation. Both of these also have easy access to ports, another necessity for heavy industry like building big rockets.

          Texas is an inertial holdover from the Apollo days. It's not called "Johnson Space Center" just for kicks. LBJ was put in charge of the Apollo program. LBJ was from Texas. An

    • Boeing is way behind SpaceX and their culture will not allow them to catch up.

      SpaceX has a strategy of "fail early, fail fast" which means blowing up a lot of prototypes.

      That philosophy is alien to Boeing's culture. They build expensive over-engineered systems funded with cost-plus contracts.

      • SpaceX has a strategy of "fail early, fail fast" which means blowing up a lot of prototypes.

        That philosophy is alien to Boeing's culture

        Well, to be fair, there was the 737 MAX ....

  • Why are government actions slow and expensive? Why don't we just acknowledge that government actions will be slow and expensive and get messed up by politics and stop using government mechanisms to do things when there are other options?

    • Because politicians and the government are a front for business interests in the first place. Projects that get derailed are typically the ones that couldn't be kept focused on by a charismatic politician and when the people aren't paying attention the pork barrels start rolling out. Also if we relied on capitalist interests we would never have big budget projects like the Hoover Dam or our national highway system. All projects would be run to maximize profit for the few and would exclude the poor, withou
    • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @05:49PM (#60154372)

      Why are government actions slow and expensive?

      Politicians what to launch big projects, but they don't want to raise taxes.

      So they vote for big boondoggles but stretch out the schedule so the costs come due after they have moved on.

      When the costs finally arrive, the new politicians don't want to raise taxes to pay for a project that they can't even take credit for. So they scale it back (discarding years of work) and make major changes (discarding more work) so they can "own" it. Since the design changes will take time, they then stretch out the schedule even more so they don't have to pay for it either.

      This is called "Kicking the can down the road."

      This is why NASA has accomplished little while spending billions.

      It is also why America has $5 trillion in unfunded government pension obligations.

    • I think you are right, but need to emphasize the "other options". part. I think industry is extremely effective at doing things where there is a clear connection to profit. There are some things, like research, where that coupling doesn't exist and then government is a better option.

    • by gtall ( 79522 )

      Okay. Let's eliminate Social Security and Medicare. Grandma really, really wants to come and live with you. We can kill off the FAA because airlines' accountants are very adept at figuring out the maximum number of causalities that will allow the airlines to still be profitable. We don't need the EPA either...turns out neither do the Republicans....a bit more mercury poisoning for everyone, one the basic ingredients to a healthy diet. And workplace safety overseen by OSHA? Safety schmafety, companies can lo

  • Only three nation's have ever done it, and there have only ever been 9 manned orbital vehicles ever developed. And the Soviets are still using their vehicle they developed in the 60s. Space is F'ing hard.
  • Elon Musk was not obliged to subsidize the desires of the USAF. SpaceX could build rockets to achieve certain specific missions like shuttling back and forth from the ISS, and the laundry list of demands that the Pentagon would push through Congresspersons with aeronautics company interests in their district could be ignored.

  • Elon Musk did. They're merely along for the ride.

    • by hambone142 ( 2551854 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @10:44PM (#60154944)

      Exactly. NASA didn't "get us back to space".

      A private company did the job.

      • A job that was paid for by NASA. The only difference between this and the Space Shuttle is the amount of autonomy given to SpaceX.

        For Commercial Crew, NASA basically said: we'll pay X per flight to the ISS, here are the basic safety requirements.

        For the Shuttle, NASA (with Congress breathing down its neck) micromanaged everything and had to end up with subcontractors spread over all 50 states. Then the Government set a ceiling on R&D so NASA couldn't go for the vehicle they really wanted (a fully reusab

  • ignorant title (Score:4, Insightful)

    by iggymanz ( 596061 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @04:53PM (#60154208)

    NASA has had robotic and manned missions all along, with no gaps. Some people are fixated on the bus service?

    • Yeah, and to make it worse, there is only even one bus stop!

      With other missions going all over the system.

      • ISS is a spacecraft and space station manned for 20 years which the USA paid almost all the money. We never left space, never stopped manned missions. All ISS expeditions had American.

  • by ghoul ( 157158 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @04:53PM (#60154210)

    With cost plus contracts traditional NASA contractors have never had any motivation to be efficient rather they have every incentive to stretch programs as long as they can.

  • Because Congress decided it should design the launch vehicle, not NASA [howstuffworks.com]. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the folks at NASA in charge of it realized it was a boondoggle, and deliberately slowed it down to prevent it from ever succeeding, to avoid rewarding the companies who won contracts through superior lobbying, rather than superior engineering.
  • NASA never had to turn a profit. Once the taxpayers stop funding the private space companies, what products and services are these companies going to offer that will fund multibillion dollar launches/crafts?
    • Once the taxpayers stop funding the private space companies

      SpaceX is only funded in part, by contracts to do flights for NASA.

      But what you Amy not have realized, is SpaceX is doing a lot of other flights for non-government entities. At this point SpaceX is easily a viable entity without any NASA contracts.

      Beyond that SpaceX also has plans to bring in further revenue - both from Starlink, to activate later this year, to private point to point Earth travel which has the potential to be a MASSIVE business tha

  • But I really don’t see how that fits in this case.

  • I think the author misspelled monetization.
    • I think the author misspelled monetization.

      To be charitable, I think the author meant commoditization but then had a thesaurus-fart.

  • Oh really? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by The Real Dr John ( 716876 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @05:14PM (#60154272) Homepage

    The idea that "the democratization of space has never been closer", when in fact a billionaire is the person doing it, seems much more than a stretch. How democratic is one person saying what is going to happen? I don't understand how people think like this. You can say you love the idea that now we need billionaires to do big projects, but that has nothing to do with "democracy". Why not just say "the oligarchization of space has never been closer"? Sounds a bit more honest.

    • The idea that "the democratization of space has never been closer", when in fact a billionaire is the person doing it

      He wasn't a billionaire when he started SpaceX.

  • thought cool we can send a rocket and full dragon crews in to space every few weeks now. But?
    Where are they going to go to? Maybe there was not a need yet.

    We now have a somewhat viable way to start getting people in to space in increasing #'s but no where to go to. YET ;)
    We need to give commercial entities a bit of time to fix that.

    Just my 2 cents ;)
    • There has been a need for decades. Various scientific research and manufacturing techniques require a manned space station.

  • by ytene ( 4376651 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @05:51PM (#60154378)
    A private US company did.
  • There were many political, non-technology and non-engineering decisions that ruined the Space Shuttle program. 30 years of supporting that stunningly expensive boondoogle and pork barrel burdened program drained NASA of technologically competent and leadership capable personnel with decasdes, even entire professional lifespans of "Peter Principle" promoted bureaucracy.

    NASA did some fabulous projects in that time, but it definitely was not worth the wasted investment to create a new Space Shuttle program. Th

    • by ytene ( 4376651 )
      Do you think it was NASA themselves who were resistant to SpaceX, or do you think it was other, "established", NASA contractors?

      When we look across the influence of the Federal Government, we see individuals like Senator Shelby (Republican, Alabama), who basically controls what NASA can and cannot do by holding their purse strings.

      I haven't seen actual evidence, so it's hard to say for sure what's going on, but the actions of Shelby look highly suspicious to me. Come to think of it, the "revolving doo
      • > Do you think it was NASA themselves who were resistant to SpaceX, or do you think it was other, "established", NASA contractors?

        Both. They have a large, multi-layered bureaucracy with many layers evolved after 50 years to protect their turf, not to advance space exploration.

  • Cost optimization (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Todd Knarr ( 15451 )

    The problem was fundamentally that NASA was acting like a business, trying to optimize costs by expanding on already-existing technology they had extensive experience with. That led to their systems being based off the existing Saturn series, the Delta rockets, the Space Shuttle. That led to the problem all optimization is subject to: local optima. That's where there's a nearby minimum or maximum and your solution locks onto that, ignoring a better minimum or maximum that's far enough away from your startin

    • "NASA was acting like a business" maybe? but business itself is risky. Those making the choices are always making a risk call based on pretty clear success vs failure results with no in between.
      Business handles risk using mostly defined hard rules.
      It is Politics and Government that is incapable of dealing with risks. Because everything is based on the politics. And politics is like jello, you can't build anything on jello.
      I am very glad to see the commercial entities taking over in space.. Because human
  • NASA ossification (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Vicious Penguin ( 168888 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @06:49PM (#60154524)

    My brother works in the aerospace industry for basically all the current players at one time or another. His take is complicated and nuanced to be sure but I can sum it up for you.

    In the aftermath of the Challenger and Columbia vehicle losses the culture changed in NASA. They went from a goal oriented agency to a deeply, deeply risk averse one. Of course, space flight is a dangerous and unforgiving business, but this was much deeper than that. Managers were rewarded for making sure nothing bad ever happened. As they rose through the ranks, all the progress essentially ceased as no one would EVER put there neck on the line. Think passing around "TPS reports" as a management style (please get the reference) and you will have a good idea about what I'm talking about.

    The reason SpaceX has succeeded so far is really because Elon Musk has a singular vision and is relentless in his pursuit of it. Now this presents its own set of problems as well (that is another and very lengthy discussion). But it has put us back in space. Oddly enough, President Obama takes some credit as well with the push toward a contract based setup rather than everything being done by the government. Which is kind of atypical for someone of his political persuasion of statism (at least in my mind).

    I do not mean Elon Musk did it all by himself. He has (and has had) a very talented group of engineers around him who have made that rocket fly (and land!). Just that his goals are the driving force behind the effort (and frequently a source of much turmoil internally).

    The problem now is one of scale. Building a rocket to throw stuff in space is hard, really hard. Doing it over and over again on a timeline is shockingly more difficult. This is the next major challenge to all the players.

  • This has been an issue since George HW Bush, in 1990, announced we would go to mars. NASA was so fucked up that every division wanted a piece of the action. They wanted to land in the moon and then re-launch to mars. And of all fucking things stupid, they didnt even design 1 rover design that works on both the moon and mars. The result was a 100 Billion Dollar price tag in 1990 dollars.

    Read: - The Case for Mars - by Robert Zubrin
    It will tell you everything you need to know as to why the NASA that brought u

  • One of NASA's biggest problems is they have to make multi-year plans but have a yearly budget. They also have to appease Congress people from fifty states. They are additionally bound by the whims of Presidential administrations. So they make plans which get tweaked by Congress and then have to fight for the money to carry out those tweaked plans.

    Another huge issue was the Constellation program was just plain stupid and wasted a ton of money and resources within NASA. The original concept of the CEV was a d

  • by magzteel ( 5013587 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @08:09PM (#60154680)

    NASA never left space. They only stopped sending humans into space.

    Sending humans into space is very expensive and risky. Sending robots is a lot cheaper and not risky. Why is it necessary to send humans?

    I remember the Apollo missions. First few moon landings were exciting. Obviously Apollo 13 was scary. It was cool seeing astronauts driving around on the moon. But by the end of the program it became kind of routine. Okay, they went there, they picked up some rocks, they came back. Now what?

    There was an expectation that it would lead to some kind of deep-space Star Trekkie kind of missions but the technology just wasn't there, and it still isn't there. As the probe and robot technology matured it became obvious you could do much more science by leaving the humans on Earth.

    I like the SpaceX technology but it changes nothing with respect to our ability to send humans great distances.

    • I think we could have continued toward the original, if not often spoken, goal of colonization of space. It would have been enormously expensive,in money and lives, but we could have done it.

      Science is of course better done with robots, but that never really was the point of manned space. Colonization was itself the goal, not a means to some other end. Viewed by many as the natural next step for mankind.

      Interplanetary manned missions, at least as far as Mars, would have been difficult, but not impossible

  • It achieves this by spreading the work across over a thousand subcontractors, spread across 43 states. Cancellation would *inevitably* result in widespread job losses that Congress wouldn't stand for.

    Contrast this with SpaceX which is highly vertically integrated -- almost everything is done in-house. Their ginormous Starship vehicle was supposed to be composite, but after running into problems with that that they said, screw it; it'd faster to build this thing out of steel.

    If you tried that with SLS, it

  • by hambone142 ( 2551854 ) on Saturday June 06, 2020 @10:43PM (#60154936)

    NASA didn't do it. Space X did.

    The incompetence of NASA has existed for decades.

    • Wrong, the International Space Station has been manned for 20 years and USA paid for the vast majority of it, and every expedition had American. We've been doing manned missions all along, and NASA has many achievements in the exploration of the solar system that dwarfs all other space agencies.

      There is no notion of NASA not being in space, that's just ignorant talk of people fixated on the taxi service to the ISS.

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