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Medicine

Bill Gates Says Virus Vaccine Could Take as Little as 9 Months (bloomberg.com) 98

Posted by msmash from the moving-forward dept.
Bill Gates, whose foundation is focusing its efforts to fight the coronavirus, doesn't think life will return to normal until there's a viable vaccine that can stop its spread. The good news is that it may take less time than many have been predicting. From a report: "Dr. Anthony Fauci has said he thinks it'll take around eighteen months to develop a coronavirus vaccine," Gates wrote in a blog post published Thursday. "I agree with him, though it could be as little as 9 months or as long as two years." Even if it takes 18 months, that would still be the fastest that scientists have created a new vaccine, Gates said, adding that he's thinks eight to ten of the 115 current COVID-19 vaccine candidates look promising. "I'm particularly excited by two new approaches that some of the candidates are taking: RNA and DNA vaccines," he wrote. "It might be a bit hard to see right now, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel."
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Bill Gates Says Virus Vaccine Could Take as Little as 9 Months More

Bill Gates Says Virus Vaccine Could Take as Little as 9 Months

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  • I wonder how many will work have human trials? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by QuantumLeaper ( 607189 ) on Friday May 01, 2020 @01:54PM (#60011946) Journal
    They always look promising in the Test tube. They fail most of the time in Humans.

    • Re:I wonder how many will work have human trials? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by mbkennel ( 97636 ) on Friday May 01, 2020 @02:21PM (#60012066)

      Gates likes innovation (as I do), but using novel technologies like the RNA and DNA vaccines is more likely to result in failures and delays versus using technologies that have been tested before---biology and physiology is so much less predictable ahead of time than physical engineering.

      On this matter, the Oxford vaccine I believe is most likely to be successful earliest, because it's been based on work that's been successful for a number of years and is better understood. They already had a MERS coronavirus vaccine with strong antibody production and successful protection against infection in monkeys, and the vaccine vector has been used on a number of other viruses. The vector has already been safety tested in humans with other targets.

      https://www.france24.com/en/20... [france24.com]

      https://www.biorxiv.org/conten... [biorxiv.org]

    • Another WEAK and shallow FP, but at least not an outright abuse of the lucky timing.

      However, all I have right now is a related question. My searches have come up empty so far, but maybe someone here has a cup of URLs to share?

      I'm wondering if different people are having completely different immune system responses to SARS-CoV-2 producing completely different antibodies. That could explain the range of reactions and why some people never show any symptoms of Covid-19 while other people get sick unto death. I

      • I think the answer to your question has to be: No.

        Early analysis of the Chinese figures indicated that people with Blood Group O were less susceptible to the virus, and that people with Blood Group A were more susceptible. That particular claim is something that was made while the virus was still raging in China although things were improving.
        I have heard nothing along these lines since.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by shanen ( 462549 )

          I have trouble following your reasoning, though I can explain a bit more about mine. SARS-CoV-2 is relatively complex, encoding for 28 (or 29) proteins (against Ebola's 10). That would indicate that there are various potential targets for the immune system and different targets might be easier or harder for the immune system to hit and might interfere with or stop Covid-19 is different ways. The details of how the immune system picks a specific response are obscure, but the results in terms of the resulting

          • What is known as the Common Cold can have several different causes, and one of them - a milder one responsible for around 20% of the cases - is caused by members of the Coronavirus family. I know some countries - including the UK - initially tried tests which were not specific enough and were showing false positives, I always assumed that they were picking up people who simply had a cold.

        • I recall seeing the Wuhan blood type susceptibility studies early on, and this article in Pharmacy Times [pharmacytimes.com] reports on similar findings in NY City.

          One plausible explanation for the discrepancies in antibody testing may be the tests themselves. Freed of the usual gamut of regulation and trials by the desperate, there is a widely varying array of efficacy in available tests [politico.com]

    • i think the first real trial will come this winter , by then most lockdown will be either eased out or simple a.D.D and 'prikkel vervaging' (cant think of the english term) will have people totally ignore the facts of life during the exact time where there's the biggest risk at re-surgence . And sadly we arent all swedes hah hah hah
      i have to be honest with this : i thoroughly enjoy the lockdown , its like my brain can breathe better
  • After all he did to enable them on computers.

  • Is this a file-copy dialog estimate? (Score:5, Funny)

    by lurch_ss ( 865961 ) on Friday May 01, 2020 @01:58PM (#60011964)
    Estimating 9 months... no, 2 years... no, 10 years.... it'll be done tomorrow.... 99% done....still 99% done... STILL 99% done...

    • Stop reminding me about the schedule, I have enough people at work asking daily when I'll be done. Imagine the whole world breathing down your neck...

      "10 days? That's good because last week you said 15 days!"

  • We have some previous experience to go on, but no one really knows how long it will take to develop a vaccine that will work for COVID-19. We can cut some corners on testing, and accept a certain degree of side effects, and hack some red tape on the approval, but all of that is just cutting some time off a schedule we don't know.

    • a number of vaccines, in the lab, have already been developed. The molecular biotech can move fast now. It's testing and production.

      • a number of vaccines, in the lab, have already been developed. The molecular biotech can move fast now. It's testing and production.

        So what I think you are saying is, we definitely have a very good idea of how long it will take to make a vaccine that may or may not work. However, I believe GP was very clear he was talking about a vaccine that worked.

        • ...and thoroughly, tested, over two life times. First generation offspring at least. Insidious examples exist both for pathogens and chemicals.

          One of the hallmarks of Bill Gates' approach to projects is his scale of defects over shipped product lifecycle, and willingness to profiteer off those problems.

          Catastrophic quality problems every other Windows edition. What could possibly go wrong with a crapware tycoon with a Messianic complex, on a mission to change the world, where 90% of the people are

          • 1) OP in this thread said despite all the estimates, nobody really knows how long it will take to make a working vaccine
            2) Next poster said vaccines are already made. We just need to test them and produce them
            3) My point was, if they haven't been through rigorous testing, then we really don't know if they work (and by "work", safely is implied...because otherwise, I'm sure any incinerator would work to stop the virus). Hence OPs point that we really don't know how long it will take to get a working vaccine.

    • To date, the fastest vaccine development/testing has been for the mumps. It took 4 years.

      RNA prophylaxis appears to be the best hope (not a vaccine). Modena's approach is quite interesting. If successful, it could halt the replication off the virus.

      • Correction of typo. The company name is "Moderna".

      • Re: (Score:3)

        by jimbo ( 1370 )

        The team in Oxford/UK got lucky in that they were very far on a MERS vaccine that showed strong generation of antibodies, they modified it slightly for C19 and started human trials last week. They say they have 80% confidence and are in talks with manufacturers internationally to prepare for mass production late this year if it pans out.

  • which means more mutations, which may render the vaccine less effective.

    Doesn't help that the current administration's guidelines literally say we shouldn't reopen without a 2 week drop in cases while the head of said administration is actively encouraging protestors who are demanding we immediately reopen. The Governor of Mi is having a hell of a time with them, even though 80% of the public supports the lock downs.

    • Re:The bad news is several states reopened early (Score:4, Insightful)

      by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Friday May 01, 2020 @02:33PM (#60012142)

      which means more mutations

      Not necessarily. The lockdown and social distancing give the virus strong evolutionary pressure to become more contagious. An adaptive mutation will dominate more under a lockdown than if life goes back to pre-C19 normalcy.

      • Not necessarily. The lockdown and social distancing give the virus strong evolutionary pressure to become more contagious. An adaptive mutation will dominate more under a lockdown than if life goes back to pre-C19 normalcy.

        What source are you parroting? Or as an alternative, what are your qualifications to make such a statement?

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Cyberax ( 705495 )

        Not necessarily. The lockdown and social distancing give the virus strong evolutionary pressure to become more contagious. An adaptive mutation will dominate more under a lockdown than if life goes back to pre-C19 normalcy.

        It would also give evolutionary advantage to strains that do not cause serious symptoms, as people with mild or no symptoms can be infectious for longer periods of time.

        • It would also give evolutionary advantage to strains that do not cause serious symptoms

          Indeed, and there is evidence that this has happened. A milder strain appears to already be circulating in China.

          A big question is whether infection by the mild strain confers immunity to the more severe strain. If so, it could be used as the basis for a less risky vaccine, just like cowpox was used to innoculate against smallpox.

          Etymological trivia: In Latin, "vaccine" means "from cows".

      • The study you cite is questioned by the very article you quote as support:

        '“Most of these mutations, being random, have nothing to do with adaptation to the host and are simply a reflection of the high error rate in copying the viral genome.”' and 'But others noted that the studies on the virus’ mutation were far from conclusive.

        “The hospital observation in Wuhan, though valuable, must be treated with caution because it involved less than 100 patients,” said a doctor at a publi

        • Of course the mutations are random.

          What host behavior (quarantining or not) changes is which mutations are successful and propagate.

          When people practice isolation and social distancing, mutations for easier transmission and a longer asymptomatic phase are disproportionately advantageous for the virus.

    • which means more mutations, which may render the vaccine less effective.

      Just what we need - possible mutant Floridians.

  • Completely misleading title! (Score:5, Informative)

    by NdotNdot ( 955278 ) on Friday May 01, 2020 @02:26PM (#60012100)
    Funny how the sentence "as little as 9 months or as long as two years" from the article becomes abbreviated to just the first half in the title. Bill Gates' statement is simply "we don't know precisely" he does in no way give either good or bad news in comparison to the typical estimate of 18 months. The original article is, by the way, one of the best and insightful explanations I have read so far.
  • The good doctor said AROUND 18 MONTHS to get a vaccine. Gates agrees, but then expands on it as if he were more knowing than an expert that has been consulting through multiple administrations, and has decades of medical knowledge. I find Gates self importance on this issue really annoying. Who cares if "about 18 months" means nine to twenty four months as interpreted by Bill Gates? Yeah, I'm nit picking. But, the guy married Internet Explorer with Windows simply to crush Netscape and then lied to the US go

  • Why does anyone listen to him for anything else than how to rip off ideas of others amd market them as his innovation to rip off stupid people with monopolism?
    Ok, and maybe if there's a chance you can grab some of his stolen money (I think in the US you call it "profit") to do something good with it.

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  • However, I have two issues:

    1) I want you and / or someone you care about to be first in line to receive said vaccine
    2) I think I will wait until this very rushed product is tested in others first ( say . . . a year or so ) before I consider getting it myself

    I'm all for vaccinations, I'm just not too keen on being your guinea pig for something like this.

    History has shown us time and time again that rushing a thing rarely turns out to be a wise decision in the end.

  • About a virus, it is windows Bill Gates.
  • I think I'll skip this update. (0/10)
    • Seriously, folks, the last person *on earth* that I'm going to trust to protect me from viruses is Mr. Bill Gates.
      • For vision, Jobs had it. Bill Gates, not so much beyond his family creating and exploiting legal gray areas, and defects.

        For rushed to market new technology RNA vaccines, Gates' habitual product BSOD etc takes a new relevance - what could possibly go wrong?

        We don't hear so much in the MSM about the downstream of new vaccines failures in India and the Philippines...

        I don't trust Gates and his cronies.

      • Re: (Score:1)

        by Kaenneth ( 82978 )

        You're one of the people I still visit slashdot for, in order to laugh at, like a monkey in a zoo.

  • Given how fast the virus spread, and that most country will stop the lock-down soon (it is obviously not a viable option to have a 2 year lock-down), the vaccine will come up once basically everybody has already got it (and so be already immune to it) ... It is a bit like these companies rushing to make ventilators (while their core business are cars, planes or whatever not related topic), and get a design ready once it is not needed anymore ... maybe good for PR, but no real impact whatsoever.

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