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Medicine

Virus Likely To Keep Coming Back Each Year, Say Top Chinese Scientists (bloomberg.com) 187

Posted by msmash from the how-about-that dept.
Chinese scientists say the novel coronavirus will not be eradicated, adding to a growing consensus around the world that the pathogen will likely return in waves like the flu. From a report: It's unlikely the new virus will disappear the way its close cousin SARS did 17 years ago, as it infects some people without causing obvious symptoms like fever. This group of so-called asymptomatic carriers makes it hard to fully contain transmission as they can spread the virus undetected, a group of Chinese viral and medical researchers told reporters in Beijing at a briefing Monday. With SARS, those infected became seriously ill. Once they were quarantined from others, the virus stopped spreading. In contrast, China is still finding dozens of asymptomatic cases of the coronavirus every day despite bringing its epidemic under control. "This is very likely to be an epidemic that co-exists with humans for a long time, becomes seasonal and is sustained within human bodies," said Jin Qi, director of the Institute of Pathogen Biology at China's top.
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Virus Likely To Keep Coming Back Each Year, Say Top Chinese Scientists More

Virus Likely To Keep Coming Back Each Year, Say Top Chinese Scientists

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  • Can't have it both ways (Score:4, Insightful)

    by postmortem ( 906676 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @10:45AM (#60003868) Journal
    “The virus is heat sensitive, but that’s when it’s exposed to 56 degrees Celsius for 30 minutes and the weather is never going to get that hot,” “This is very likely to be an epidemic that co-exists with humans for a long time, becomes seasonal and is sustained within human bodies,” If it is seasonal, then it is affected by outside temperature. At this point it's just educated guessing.

    • Re:Can't have it both ways (Score:5, Insightful)

      by MightyMartian ( 840721 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @10:48AM (#60003874) Journal

      The reason some pathogens are seasonal is due to the fact that, at least in the higher latitudes, which is where a large portion of humanity lives, fall and winter see most people indoors for a large portion of the time. It has nothing to do with whether a virus can survive at certain temperatures, since usually those temperatures are outside of the range most people can comfortably live.

      • The reason some pathogens are seasonal is due to the fact that, at least in the higher latitudes, which is where a large portion of humanity lives, fall and winter see most people indoors for a large portion of the time.

        That doesn't make any sense. Think about your actual daily life in the winter, and then in the summer. Think about the opportunities you have for being infected by other sick people or infecting others. Are they really that different between summer and winter?

        During the summer, I might s

      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        by Anonymous Coward

        The reason some pathogens are seasonal is due to the fact that, at least in the higher latitudes, which is where a large portion of humanity lives, fall and winter see most people indoors for a large portion of the time. It has nothing to do with whether a virus can survive at certain temperatures, since usually those temperatures are outside of the range most people can comfortably live.

        Dude, you can't just ignore established science and install your own opinion.

        http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/fl... [harvard.edu]

        • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

          by Anonymous Coward
          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p... [nih.gov]

          "Experimental studies in guinea pigs demonstrated that influenza virus transmission is strongly modulated by temperature and humidity. "

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by wrelh ( 6463630 )
          Good point and great link. However, should mention it did list the dude's opinion as the first popular theory making the link even more relevant.

        • Colds have three reasons for being seasonal - being inside longer, rhinovirus reproduces better a bit below body temperature so cold noses are good for it, and because of the dry air. I don't think this was his own opinion, but it's easy to find online in many places.
          https://weather.com/health/col... [weather.com]

        • Dude, you can't just ignore established science and install your own opinion.

          Quite right, you have to be The President or a member of Congress to do that.

      • Also less humidity helps the spread of some viruses better, as the miniscule water droplets being coughed out evaporate and leave the virus floating in the air longer.

        Back in February, one of my coworkers was confident that covid-19 wasn't have much effect in India or parts Africa because it doesn't get that code and the flu is relatively rare. And yet this virus doesn't act the same way. Australia had a big chunk of covid-19 and it was still summer. So if this become seasonal I suspect the reasons will b

        • it doesn't get that code

          Perhaps if we used a simpler cypher, it would get that code.

          Note that autocomplete is NOT your friend....

    • Or it could be that people's immune systems work better in the hotter months, thus limiting the rate in which it transmits as compared to winter.

    • Does that change how we proceed near term, mid-term, long-term?

      Lockdown forever seems pretty silly - even those that die will probably prefer to see their loved ones at some point in the next year(s) instead of just dying in isolation.

      • Re:Does any of this affect our response ? (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Dutch Gun ( 899105 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @11:08AM (#60003922)

        I haven't heard anyone advocating permanent lockdown - just long enough to keep it from sweeping through the population all at once. Longer term, there are some fairly promising vaccines in the works, like the Oxford vaccine, and organizations like the Gates Foundation are gearing to ramp up production in record time. So in the mid-term, if we can strike a balance between reasonable social distancing and normalcy, keeping the infection rate under control, then we can give enough breathing room to get that vaccine widely distributed.

        Long term, we should really hope the vaccine works, as then we can return to a normal life without too much concern. If it doesn't happen, we're just going to have to suck it up and go with natural herd immunity, I guess.

        • Well, neither NY or CA seem to have a functional plan to return from lockdown. Testing isn’t going to get us there, temperature checks aren’t going to do it, and a vaccine is too far away.

          The states that could reasonably [begin] reopen[ing] today are Hawaii, Alaska, Montana, West Virginia, Oregon, Maine, and possibly Vermont. Pretty much every other state, despite what their politics might say, is not ready yet. Some counties of some states might be, and some mitigation plans might be possib

        • Long term, we should really hope the vaccine works, as then we can return to a normal life without too much concern. If it doesn't happen, we're just going to have to suck it up and go with natural herd immunity, I guess.

          Yep. It remains to be seen if it's something we just wrap into the existing MMR vaccines and get on with life, or if it's an annual superflu.

          Unfortunately, it's going to be an annual superflu for at least another year or two even if we can make a vaccine that works. Getting that deployed to enough people isn't something that will happen quickly. Especially with the resistance from the anti-vax asshats.

        • The problem with the lockdowns has been that they're indiscriminate. If you look at any diagram for flattening the curve [uofmhealth.org], two things become obvious. The goal is to keep the peak of the curve below our hospital capacity. And the more you flatten it, the longer it extends in time (the longer you need to keep lockdowns in effect).

          We have two goals here. (1) Minimize the number of deaths, and (2) minimize economic harm. (1) is accomplished by flattening the curve sufficiently to drop it below our hospit
      • Certainly not mid or long term.
        For sweden that is allowing it to sweep through its population, it will probably mean no changes near term. The reason is that the most vulnerable will be dead. It will be interesting to see what changes the rest of western society makes.

        The good news is that some of the vaccines appear to be working. I have to wonder, how many of the anti-vaxers will choose to NOT take it. In particular, this will likely be the least tested of all recent day vaccines.

        • Re:Does any of this affect our response ? (Score:4, Informative)

          by satanicat ( 239025 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @11:32AM (#60004024)

          Given the way governments have been handling the pandemic, with forced self isolation, physical distancing etc; and with the damages it's had, especially on economies.... I fully expect in many countries, people will not have a choice. (Although I would be really surprised if something like that happened in the US)

          Here where I live in Canada, Police are actively running road stops, requesting ID cards of each person in the car, if two people have different addresses on their ID card, that's a ~$700 - $1000 fine for each person. Same idea if people are found in groups of 5 or more, or found not to be respecting the 6ft. distancing rule, are found in a park, beach, fishing, hiking on trails etc. (Actually at parks, if the police find a parked car, they are impounding and that's an additional financial penalty for the person)

          If you are told to self isolate, either because you've tested positive or you have been confirmed to be near somebody else who has tested positive etc, they are handling it the same way..

          For repeat offenders, people can face up to 6 months in prison. I haven't heard of this happening yet, I'm sure it would make news. But they've been reporting quite a bit on the number of people fined and for how much.

          Anyways, all this to say, if they are enforcing current rules like this, I would not be the least bit surprised if when a vaccine is made available, they end up taking a similar approach.

          • Re:Does any of this affect our response ? (Score:4, Insightful)

            by satanicat ( 239025 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @11:40AM (#60004058)

            It's kind of funny when I read that back. Because if it weren't wrapped up as something to protect people from themselves, it would sound an awful oppressive. =)

            • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

              by Anonymous Coward

              All tyranny is implemented under the veil of "protecting you". You can't just pull everyone's rights away overnight. People will fight back. You have to convince them it is for their own good, for their safety. They have to be conditioned into accepting it, and then convinced into becoming enforcers themselves, snitching on anyone to dares fall out of line.

              • Quite a lot of tyranny is different. I am protecting my tribe at the expense of your tribe, I am making sure my tribe has more rights than your tribe.

            • Not to protect people from themselves as much as to protect people from other people. Since people can be asymptomatic, you can't just assume that if you're feeling well that it's perfectly safe to go hang out at the bar and that you're only accepting the risk to yourself.

              One reason people were shocked that Pence wasn't wearing a mask and everyone around him was. The person spearheading the effort should know better and not be just another dumb politician. But apparently wearing masks these days is being

              • Re:Does any of this affect our response ? (Score:4, Insightful)

                by cbeaudry ( 706335 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @04:13PM (#60005384)

                Those that are vulnerable should look to protect themselves. It isnt up to everyone to stop living for the few.

                The numbers are in and the risk factors are so low, they are pretty much on the level with the FLU, except for those above 70 years old and with multiple risk factors.
                Same goes for those who are younger with risk factors. You do not oppress 100 000 people to protect 200.

                • Say we open up everything today, make some protesters happy. The stores will not all open up! They will continue to insist that no more than a handful can be inside at any time and that they maintain social distance rules, and they may require that masks and gloves be worn. This is because the customers will demand this and the store's workers will demand this. And other countries will be the same. We are not going back to normal anytime soon.

                  This is worse then the flu. The flu has not caused anything th

            • very.

          • Interesting - ID cards often don't reflect a person's current address - my long time partner and I have lived together for a while and neither of our addresses are the same on our ID cards, or even the address we live at now. Do most people's ?

            Or do you have to then do some sort of court appeal process ?

            • Well, with most fines you can pay them, or you can not pay them. Opting not to pay them means you'll have to argue your point in court. I assume this would work like that, after all it's kind of similar to a speeding ticket in many regards, in how these are being issued.

              They didn't start doing this at first, they started doing it because people weren't taking the order seriously, it's gradually escalated.

              And yea, I know what you mean about ID cards. I would assume that an out of date ID card (which is no

        • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

          by gweihir ( 88907 )

          For sweden that is allowing it to sweep through its population, it will probably mean no changes near term.

          Pleas stop the lying. Sweden is doing no such thing. The only thing they are doing is the rely more on recommendations and less on outright banning things. Of course, such an approach only works with a somewhat sensible and educated population.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Nidi62 ( 1525137 )

      “The virus is heat sensitive, but that’s when it’s exposed to 56 degrees Celsius for 30 minutes and the weather is never going to get that hot,”
      “This is very likely to be an epidemic that co-exists with humans for a long time, becomes seasonal and is sustained within human bodies,”
      If it is seasonal, then it is affected by outside temperature. At this point it's just educated guessing.

      Because it's impossible to get the flu during summer too.....

    • Re:Can't have it both ways (Score:4, Insightful)

      by hey! ( 33014 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @11:14AM (#60003954) Homepage Journal

      I'm not sure what you see the contradiction as. Seasonal infections do not actually go away in the warmer months, they just slow down so that most people don't notice them. Measles, for example, is a seasonal infection that has no known animal reservoirs. If "seasonal" means "it doesn't happen in the summer", then measles would eradicate itself.

    • Yes, because it's commonly 130F and above in the summer, in most parts of the world.

      Not sure what your point was here.

    • Global Warming will save us. Burn a dinosaur today!

  • Top Chinese scientists (Score:4, Insightful)

    by sosume ( 680416 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @10:59AM (#60003900) Journal

    Well that sounds rather trustworthy. On what data is their science based - and has the data been approved by the government?

    • They are not the only scientists expecting this evolution.
    • Just wait a week to find out if they've been put under house arrest or not. That will tell whether or not it was approved by the government, and maybe even nudges the needle on the truth-o-meter as well.

    • Re:Top Chinese scientists (Score:5, Insightful)

      by srichard25 ( 221590 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @11:17AM (#60003964)

      If these scientists disappear, then we know that their science is accurate and hasn't been approved by the government.

    • This is after a long line of non-Chinese scientists have said the same thing. Try to keep up with the news.

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Well, racism is not really a good argument. Do you have any of those instead?

    • On what data is their science based

      The science of epidemiology. It stands to reason too. Multiple mutations of SARS-COV-2019 have already been identified. If we don't build up immunity to them then this virus like all viruses which mutate and for which we don't vaccinate against or build immunity against will pop up seasonally, typically in winter for societal reasons.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

      It's utterly incoherent as well. Seasonal viral illnesses have a natural reservoir of viral payload from which to resurge. This is a zoonotic virus that comes from bats with whom humanity doesn't normally interact in a meaningful way, and jumped species in what seems to be a freak accident in a wet market in China.

      If we can eliminate the virus with a vaccine, there's no natural reservoir for it to begin the next yearly cycle from. Wet markets are not reliable enough points of initial seeding of infection, a

  • Buy vaccine bonds.

  • had this thing beaten. But can anything from China ever be trusted?
    Well except, big chunks of the lamestream media who print the Chinese propaganda verbatim.

    Just my 2 cents ;)

    • I don't think anyone has claimed China had this beat, though New Zealand is claiming that now. No, China has claimed they have it under control, and all available evidence supports that claim.

    • Re:Funny I thought China (Score:4, Interesting)

      by hey! ( 33014 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @12:01PM (#60004162) Homepage Journal

      Well, that's science for you. Sometimes the story changes.

      It's easy to forget how rapidly our understanding of this has progressed. It wasn't until the middle of last month that we understood how important spread by asymptomatic people was. That's why the CDC reversed itself on masks for the public.

      The significance of asymptomatic carriers is a novel feature of this pandemic. Experts initially weren't terribly concerned by early reports out of China of asymptomatic transmission. Until now that has never been a significant factor in any respiratory disease epidemic.

      If this epidemic can sustain itself with asymptomatic transmission, there's nothing anyone can do, short of mass vaccination, to prevent its re-emergence. That is why Dr. Fauci in the US and medical researchers in China are warning of a possible reemergence.

    • This report that covid-19 will keep coming back has been claimed by many scientists already, it is not a Chinese clalm.

  • Nextstrain data analysis - COVD-19 vs influenza (Score:4, Informative)

    by volvox_voxel ( 2752469 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @11:25AM (#60003984)

    There is a website, https://nextstrain.org/ncov [nextstrain.org], that takes in the DNA sequences of viruses from researchers all over the world, like SARS-CoV-2, and tracks their mutation rate as a function of time.It likely won't come back every year, but it has the potential for every 2.5 to 3 years based upon available data. Nextstrain estimates 8 × 10^-4 mutations per nucleotide per year, and influenza is more like ~2 x 10^-3 So it looks like it has a lower mutation rate overall.

    A computational biologist colleague of mine made these comments based about the efficacy of a vaccine: "It also has FAR less genetic diversity relative to influenza, so a vaccine might be able to affect the entire population"

    • slight correction: A computational biologist colleague of mine made these comments about the efficacy of a vaccine

  • I could do with working from home for 2-3 months every year!

  • Of course... (Score:5, Funny)

    by fahrbot-bot ( 874524 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @11:35AM (#60004040)
    The virus originated in China, so an hour after recovering from COVID-19, you get it again. At least it's MSG free. :-)

  • H1N1 comes back every year.
    So does MERS and SARS and every other virus that once hit the world in a big way. But they don't come back with the same force the second, or third or fourth time.

  • Are the Communiar Chinese now channeling Jay Leno?

    Wuhan National Laboratory Vision Statement:

    "Run out of Pandemics"

    We'll Make MORE!"

  • How long does immunity last? (Score:3)

    by DrLudicrous ( 607375 ) on Wednesday April 29, 2020 @02:59PM (#60005072) Homepage
    The questions to ask are how long immunity lasts, and how quickly before this particular virus mutates into something even more successful at infection. This high-level translation does little to answer either question. Immunity duration is unclear, and we know coronaviruses mutate (however slowly). What we have seen this year is passing a threshold R0 due to the asymptomatic transmission vector. Herd immunity may be moot.

  • No worse than the flu as it is turning out, it's just like having two flu strains in one year. Oh the deaths are vastly over-stated.

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