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Social Distancing Is Slowing Not Only COVID-19, But Other Diseases Too 251

"As governments around the world have pushed their citizens away from populated places to slow the spread of Covid-19, they may not have realized that they were also combatting other infectious diseases, such as the seasonal flu," reports Quartz. The data comes from Kinsa Health, a company that collects anonymized thermometer readings from its active user base to estimate the share of people that are ill in different geographies. From the report: By comparing current thermometer readings to historical trends, researchers have used Kinsa's data to predict flu outbreaks weeks before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's surveillance program, which uses hospitalization records. Recent data clearly show the spread of Covid-19. On March 19, the share of Americans with temperatures indicating they had flu-like symptoms was about 4.9% when it typically would be expected to be about 4.0%. This was likely a result of the spread of Covid-19, according to Kinsa's researchers.

But by March 23, it was down to 3.3%, when it would typically be at 3.7% (the share of fevers decreases quickly at this time of year because of the end of winter). The drop -- from 0.9% above typical flu-like illness rates to 0.4% below -- in just four days is the largest one Kinsa has ever observed in such a short period of time, according to Kinsa CEO Inder Singh. "There is no known precedent for this type of extensive social distancing in recent time," said Singh. "We have nothing to compare this to, but this extreme drop is exactly what we would hope and expect with the measures currently in place."
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Social Distancing Is Slowing Not Only COVID-19, But Other Diseases Too

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  • by misnohmer ( 1636461 ) on Thursday March 26, 2020 @05:22AM (#59872938)

    With less people commuting, less people in cars, I bet the number of accidents and therefore number of car accident fatalities fell as well. Not sure how actionable such data this is though, if at all.

    • Here in Belgium, it even seems as if there are less strokes or heart attacks... Doctors aren't quite sure how or why, but the numbers are there.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      It would be nice if more companies kept allowing remote working and if people kept in the habit of respecting other's personal space.

      • It would be nice if more companies kept allowing remote working and if people kept in the habit of respecting other's personal space.

        I ain't never going back. If they don't like it they can fire me.

      • by TheGratefulNet ( 143330 ) on Thursday March 26, 2020 @10:27AM (#59873678)

        WILL we see fundamental changes in the workplace?

        lets talk about software/hardware devel, which is what a lot of us do for a living. I've been working in the bay area for over 25 years, now; started in the boston area (10 years there) - so I have some feel for how tech on both coasts, work.

        in the bay area, the 'open office' concept took over about 10-15 years ago, give or take. we used to have cube dividers; but now I have not seen one for well over a decade. when I started back in boston, we had dividers that were taller than a person (I was at DEC for several years; one of the best places I was ever at, btw; sad to see them go, all those years ago). by the time I left DEC, the dividers were less than a person's height.

        moved out to bay area and we still had dividers (early 90's). but since then, they have entirely disappeared (well, maybe HR has them - they are 'special' right? sigh).

        in fact, I've seen the sweatshop return, in terms of look/feel. one company I interviewed with last year had desks arranged end to end, in a long row, like cafeterias. no space at all between desks - people sitting bench style (almost) next to each other. packed like friggin sardines. I left the interview thinking "hmmm, no personal space, no respect for employees, I think I'll pass". (fwiw, I checked in with some friends who do work there, and that company showed its real nature; they held people there to the very last day before the mandatory shelter-in-place rule was announced. other bay area companies were letting their employees WFH if they felt unsafe, even weeks before the forced WFH change.

        what I'm getting at is: when the 'all clear' (narrator: it won't be all clear, not even close) is given and we have to report back to work - do you expect or even demand changes in your physical work area? do you think HR is going to listen?

        let me say this: every so often, the tech industry 'toys' with the idea of unions. there are people who will lie and tell you that you don't need it- but seriously guys, we need bargaining power, right now. we need to demand more realistic working conditions, including the right to WFH without static from management (assuming you actually can do remote work) - we have to have more distance between our desks and ideally even the return of the barrier.

        we were all getting more colds and flus when the barriers were removed. now, its more important than ever that we demand they be returned. its not realistic to ask for hardwall offices, but it IS very realistic (should be legally required if employees request) to have a return to larger cubes and more space all around.

        think about it, guys. historically, engineering has an ego problem in that they dont' want to admit they need help with collective bargaining. but trust me, we need this. only together can we return to a more safe work environment.

    • by bosef1 ( 208943 )

      I also wondered if traffic fatalities were down due to reduced travel associated with both the pandemic quarantines and with the general economic downturn.

    • by isj ( 453011 )

      Latest numbers from Denmark support your hypothesis:
      Car traffic is down by 47%
      Car accidents are down by 54%

  • Wow! Who knew? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Archtech ( 159117 ) on Thursday March 26, 2020 @05:35AM (#59872958)

    There have been a lot of thoughtless people in the UK, lately, expatiating on this kind of theme. Who would ever have imagined that, when people stay home and do not spend much of the day driving around and operating factories, pollution might decrease? Isn't it stunning that when people avoid crowding together and remain in small groups, the spread of disease decreases?

    Taking the idea to its logical extreme, we would all be better reverting to the prehistoric hunter-gatherer life. Unfortunately our ancestors removed that option when the agricultural revolution began. Even 3,000 years ago there were far too many people to live sustainably by hunting and gathering. As Yuval Noah Harari pointed out in "Sapiens", “With time, the ‘wheat bargain’ became more and more burdensome. Children died in droves, and adults ate bread by the sweat of their brows Paradoxically, a series of ‘improvements’, each of which was meant to make life easier, added up to a millstone around the necks of these farmers.

    “Why did people make such a fateful miscalculation? For the same reason that people throughout history have miscalculated. People were unable to fathom the full consequences of their decisions”.

    Every good harvest tempted people to have more children, but they failed to see the long-term implications. Eating grains weakened their immune systems while being crowded together with farm animals encouraged infectious diseases; and even when they had a surplus of food, that just attracted robbers and enemies so they had to build walls and lose workers to become soldiers. “The trap snapped shut”.

    The considerable upside of the present lockdowns is completely dwarfed by the downside: we cannot live without working, and work requires most people to travel and cooperate physically.

    • It's that last quarter sentence I take issue with: "work requires most people to travel and cooperate physically"

      I think perhaps, it doesn't. Not really. We have technology now to eliminate both. We just need to expand that technology to more industries.

      • I have worked remotely from home for a long time now, and part of why that has been so successful is that my job has naturally changed as I gravitate toward things that can be productivly done remotely. If my job was more hands-on, involved more managing a team or was more politically charged it would not have worked out as well as it has, and that has become self-fulfilling now.
    • by dargaud ( 518470 )

      Eating grains weakened their immune systems

      I agree with everything you wrote, except this. Why would you say that ?

      • by Quirkz ( 1206400 )

        Probably a misunderstanding of the fact that many early agricultural societies did have worse diets and generally worse health than hunter gatherers. But I think this had mostly to do with sanitation and limited food variety, maybe also a lifestyle that didn't allow for easy escape in times of drought and famine.

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      Is knowledge really that dangerous? It can only be if you've lost your ability to way pros and cons.

    • by GuB-42 ( 2483988 )

      There have been a lot of thoughtless people in the UK, lately, expatiating on this kind of theme. Who would ever have imagined that, when people stay home and do not spend much of the day driving around and operating factories, pollution might decrease? Isn't it stunning that when people avoid crowding together and remain in small groups, the spread of disease decreases?

      Sure, it is obvious, what is not is by how much. I expect that after things settle down, researchers will take advantage of that unplanned large scale experiment and draw more precise conclusion than "duh", with error bars [xkcd.com].

      Eating grains weakened their immune systems while being crowded together with farm animals encouraged infectious diseases.

      I see not relationship between eating grains and a weakened immune system, is there some proof about that? But the second part is definitely true, and results in strengthened immune systems.
      By living crowded together with animals, we created the perfect conditions for plagues to appear an

  • by Narcocide ( 102829 ) on Thursday March 26, 2020 @05:56AM (#59872988) Homepage

    Video games save lives. I told you guys. I fucking told you so. So there.

  • Disco was not quite dead , somehow still Staying Alive, which coincidentally was a song useful for training CPR to maintain a target rhythm of 100 to 120 compression per minute since tempo similar.
  • Instead of 9-5, eat at noon you could break up your workforce 8-11-4,9-12-5,10-1 -6. Public transportation 1/3 full. Lunchrooms 1/3 crowded. Also in Chicago all the work is either downtown or company campuses in the suburbs. The result is that traffic is all going one way at the same time. Heavy congestion, Distribute things more and you will natuarlly things move smoothly, and eevenly. More distance between people. Just distribute more.
    • Careful- too far in that direction you might stumble upon Distributism....where even ownership is more distributed.

      • If you want distributed ownership, check the box that says "401k". Now you've got ownership. You're welcome.

        If you want the Trump administration to use your money to build whatever they decode to build, maybe some nuclear reactors and GMO seed companies, then put the government in charge of business ownership.

  • Scandinavian Minnesotans thought "that's still a little close, isn't it?"

  • Looks like the immune system olympics just got pushed back a year too.
  • ... of TDS being affected?

  • And I haven't seen anyone complain - or even notice - that some IoT thermometer is apparently sharing your temperature back to its manufacturer?

  • by superdave80 ( 1226592 ) on Thursday March 26, 2020 @01:40PM (#59874474)

    I'm amazed out how freaked out people are by COVID-19 because it MIGHT kill a few hundred thousand (in US) if we are really careless. So we shut everything down and go overboard on containing this. Fine.

    But every winter without fail, we flood shopping malls, travel all over the country to see each other while cramming way too many people into our homes, throwing big parties, and literally do the complete opposite of what we are being shamed/threatened into doing now... and kill tens of thousands with flu EVERY YEAR. And we don't even bat an eye. It's just a little weird.

  • by SoftwareArtist ( 1472499 ) on Thursday March 26, 2020 @03:12PM (#59874952)

    On March 19, the share of Americans with temperatures indicating they had flu-like symptoms was about 4.9% when it typically would be expected to be about 4.0%. This was likely a result of the spread of Covid-19, according to Kinsa's researchers.

    Unless 0.9% of the population was sick with it on March 19 (that's about 3 million people), that couldn't have possibly been the reason.

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