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Medicine

As Coronavirus Numbers Rise, C.D.C. Testing Comes Under Fire (nytimes.com) 277

The coronavirus has found a crack in the nation's public health armor, and it is not one that scientists foresaw: diagnostic testing. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention botched its first attempt to mass produce a diagnostic test kit, a discovery made only after officials had shipped hundreds of kits to state laboratories. From a report: A promised replacement took several weeks, and still did not permit state and local laboratories to make final diagnoses. And the C.D.C. essentially ensured that Americans would be tested in very few numbers by imposing stringent and narrow criteria, critics say. On Monday, following mounting criticism of the federal response, Trump administration officials promised a rapid expansion of the country's testing capacities. With the help of private companies and academic centers, as many as a million diagnostic tests could be administered by the end of this week, said Dr. Stephen Hahn, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration. But many scientists wonder if the moves come too late. As of Monday evening, 103 Americans were infected with the coronavirus in the United States. Six deaths have been reported. Dozens of patients, in several states, may have caught the virus in their communities, suggesting that the pathogen already may be circulating locally.

The case numbers are rising not just because the virus is spreading, but because federal officials have taken steps toward expanded testing. The persistent drumbeat of positive test results has raised critical questions about the government's initial management of the outbreak. Why weren't more Americans tested sooner? How many may be carrying the virus now? Most disturbing of all: Did a failure to provide adequate testing give the coronavirus time to gain a toehold in the United States? "Clearly, there have been problems with rolling out the test," said Dr. Thomas Frieden, former director of the C.D.C. "There are a lot of frustrated doctors and patients and health departments." Still, Dr. Frieden said he thought the situation was improving. Other experts, although supportive of the agency, were mystified that federal officials could have committed so many missteps. "The incompetence has really exceeded what anyone would expect with the C.D.C.," said Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard University. "This is not a difficult problem to solve in the world of viruses."

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As Coronavirus Numbers Rise, C.D.C. Testing Comes Under Fire

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  • by Tim Hamilton ( 5961502 ) on Tuesday March 03, 2020 @10:06AM (#59791350)
    Months into this mess, the CDC had tested only about 450 individuals. This is the figure from a few days ago and might as well be a single data point. How can they expect to have any knowledge on the matter? Negligence, anyone?
    • The following estimate is crude and likely an upper bound but if you look at NY it took 32 tests to find one person with corona virus. IN washington state they found 16 people in 300 tests. So very roughly then it seems that 3 or 4 % of the people tested have coronavirus. Presumably they are testing people with fevers and resperatory issues. If one runs with this number then it would mean 3% of all the resperatory infections for the last month are corona virus.

      I would guess some people receive more tha

      • by goombah99 ( 560566 ) on Tuesday March 03, 2020 @10:23AM (#59791414)

        By the way, saying "lets test for a virus" is a lot easier than doing it. Unlike Bacteria, viruses are difficult to test for, especially early in the infection when the titer is low. And even harder to find exposures in things like nasal swaps. One of the better ways later in an infection is the patient's antibodies but that isn't a particularly easy test either.

        • by Cyberax ( 705495 )

          By the way, saying "lets test for a virus" is a lot easier than doing it.

          Not really. The testing is mostly automated these days - you just mix the plasma sample, reverse transcriptase and primers. Then try to amplify it and watch for fluorescing indicators.

          There are multiple solutions on the market that automate most aspects of it. It's now so cheap that it's run routinely for diagnostic purpose (at least in my hospital).

      • by kenh ( 9056 ) on Tuesday March 03, 2020 @10:26AM (#59791434) Homepage Journal

        If one runs with this number then it would mean 3% of all the resperatory infections for the last month are corona virus.

        No, it doesn't - you assume they are blanket-testing every person with respiratory infections, that is very unlikely - if there were only 32 people with respiratory infections in New York State, or 300 in Washington state, your theory might hold water.

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      I believe the actual figure is 400/day. That's still not nearly enough.

    • by lgw ( 121541 )

      Months into this mess, the CDC had tested only about 450 individuals.

      Any large government (or corporate) entity will become as corrupt as possible over time. The only reason to expect it to be able to do any part of its job at all is that it does it regularly in a way that the results can be judged. The CDC goes many years between virus outbreaks that get public attention. That's a lot of time for it to fill up with seatwarmers and empire builders, entirely incapable or even uninterested in the organizations mission - same as any organization.

      So, rationally, we would expe

    • I just saw a post elsewhere which pointed out that Italy has now tested over 9000 people, which may explain the higher number of people who are infected. In other words, the USA is just blind on the rate of infection.

    • by Ogive17 ( 691899 ) on Tuesday March 03, 2020 @01:39PM (#59792392)
      President Trump himself bragged that the US was ranked #1 in readiness to handle it. Then Pence bragged about how good of a leader Trump has been handling this. Then some other peon came on and said the same thing.

      Are you saying that the President was exaggerating?
    • So let's shoot the messenger, shall we? Given the state of today's Slashdot, I'm shocked the comment isn't packed full of insightful mods.

      No, I don't agree that the CDC has been negligent. My belief would be more like "The remains of the CDC did the best they could under the circumstances."

      Those circumstances have always involved tough financial constraints and complicated epidemiological questions, but the last few years have added all sort of purely political obstacles, too. All the things that cannot be

  • They did a good job buying some time for the wealthy to get their money out of stocks. When they oversold last week, the Fed inflated the currency and pumped "liquidity" in through a massively-oversubscribed repo window.

    It looks like they need one more week before they can let the cards fall with just the schlubs' retirement accounts left holding the bag.

    https://youtu.be/0Wg_OTTzUv8 [youtu.be]

    • Get over yourself. The virus will run its course and you can go back to your regular boring paranoid life in the basement of your safe suburban home.

    • If you really believe that, why don't you take a massive short position for that time interval? If what you're saying is actually correct then you and anyone following your advice stands to make out like a bandit.
  • With the benefit of hindsight, critics argue that the current administration had missteps, but argue that somehow they would have magically avoided those same mistakes were they in charge.

    The lies and falsehoods surrounding this epidemic are numerous and seem, sadly, to be politically-motivated.

    Comparisons with the swine flu epidemic are rarely made, but if I remember correctly, it took six months and a thousand dead Americans before the previous administration declared it a National Emergency - this admini

    • by jittles ( 1613415 ) on Tuesday March 03, 2020 @11:07AM (#59791668)

      With the benefit of hindsight, critics argue that the current administration had missteps, but argue that somehow they would have magically avoided those same mistakes were they in charge.

      The lies and falsehoods surrounding this epidemic are numerous and seem, sadly, to be politically-motivated.

      Comparisons with the swine flu epidemic are rarely made, but if I remember correctly, it took six months and a thousand dead Americans before the previous administration declared it a National Emergency - this administration in comparison was attacked when a travel ban and quarantine were imposed back in January (charges of xenophobia, racism, and the like were levied by critics at the time). The one thing most critic have in common, is they never offer suggestions at the time, they sit back and wait for those that do act to fail, then pounce.

      Where were our so-called leaders in December, January, as this coronavirus epidemic was taking hold around the world? They were busy re-litigating Russian Collusion and attempted Ukrainian election interference.

      You do realize that it is the executive branch's responsibility to execute these kinds of responses, right? Any criticism on the legislative branch should be related to budget for responses (decided in 2018, in this case), as well as any emergency funding that was requested but not authorized. And let's not get into a game of who was too busy doing pointless things these last few months. How many rallies has Trump held where he has literally wasted time ranting incoherently about people's large bowel movements, etc. The guy has lost his mind and people continue to support his insanity (and his megalomania, not to mention dishonesty and corruption) because he is not HRC, Biden, Bernie, or whoever the bad guy in blue is this week. My lord. What has this country devolved into when it is better to elect a senile shyster because he's supposedly a republican than to vote for somebody (literally almost anybody) who isn't 'our party'? I can't tell you how many ultra conservative members of my family were talking about how evil and terrible Trump was until he won the republican nomination and then, as if a switch had been flipped, he suddenly became the most amazing man on the planet. It is pathetic. I'm over it. I'd literally rather vote for that golden retriever [go.com] than for Trump and I literally cannot understand the hypocrisy and the cognitive dissonance exhibited by even members of my own family. It feels like the candidates at each election cycle are worse and even more embarrassing than the candidates before them.

      • One word, judges. He keeps appointing them. The team could care less what he does as long as he keeps appointing judges. I imagine the team is salivating at Ginsberg's health.
    • They were also de-funding the CDC.

    • I am not an American but let me answer you this :
      "With the benefit of hindsight, critics argue that the current administration had missteps, but argue that somehow they would have magically avoided those same mistakes were they in charge."

      Well that one is pretty damn easy. I am big on science and hate military or stupid wall. So I would never EVER have cut or made the CDC budget stable (cut by inflation). I would never had make all that shit up on a wall or increased or made the military US budget stable
  • What happened to the CDC test kit could happen to any new test kit: the control samples produced spurious positives more often than acceptable.

    The thing is there was another test state labs could have been using while the CDC worked to fix this: the WHO test. But for some reason the FDA didn't give approval to use that, meaning that all testing in the US had to be done at the CDC, which simply doesn't have the capacity to handle all the testing for the country.

  • How is it that the CDC can't create a test that works correctly, but the Chinese have tested hundreds of thousands of people?

    --
    There's a war on, man! People are being killed! - Hunter S. Thompson

    • How is it that you believe anything being reported by the Chinese government?

      • Replace China with South Korea, Iran or Italy then. How is it that so many countries can test on such a scale but the US can? Riddle me this, why is the kit 5 to 10$ anywhere in the world but in the US it's over 3000$?
    • How do you know that the Chinese test kits worked any better? If they get a false positive, do you think they care if they quarantine someone who didn't need to be? They've already got loads of people on soft forms of lock down [reuters.com] who aren't even sick.
    • How is it that the CDC can't create a test that works correctly, but the Chinese have tested hundreds of thousands of people?

      --
      There's a war on, man! People are being killed! - Hunter S. Thompson

      Let's break down your compound question:

      1.) How is it that the CDC can't create a test that works correctly ...

      2.) How is it that the Chinese have tested hundreds of thousands of people?

      How about this:

      1.) The CDC is fucked up under the current administration.

      2.) The Chinese government controls hundreds of thousands of people.

      There's your answers, but reading between the lines, I sense you're implying the Chinese testing method is superior to the fucked up US fail.

      Seeing as how the government of China is sel

    • Well, the Chinese started killing corrupt people, we create government jobs for them.

      Correlation, causation... who am I to say which it is...

  • https://twitter.com/into_the_b... [twitter.com]

    This thread on twitter points to a huge problem with what's going on in Seattle. They aren't testing anyone who hasn't been out of the country, and who hasn't come in contact with known infected patients. This is obviously a huge problem for people presenting with symptoms—this is exactly how you miss containing an epidemic. Given that there are already patients starting to pop up with no known connection to travelers or known infected patients, this is hugely troublin

  • ... the doorstep of the present Administration that has shown no respect for CDC scientists, has suppressed or edited CDC reporting, and has de-funded parts of CDC.

    That would get the monkey off their back and place it where it belongs.

    In compliance with sexual predator laws, we need to make sure the monkey has no pussy.

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