Coronavirus Cases Soar in Italy and Iran; 48 Countries Now Report Infections (nytimes.com) 222
The fight to contain the coronavirus entered an alarming new phase on Thursday as caseloads soared in Europe and the Middle East, and health officials in the United States and Germany dealt with patients with no known connection to others with the infection. From a report: The German and American cases raised the possibility that the virus could have begun to spread locally, or that infected people had spread it to others sequentially, making it virtually impossible to trace and isolate the origins. Either way, the cases, thousands of miles apart, underscored how quickly the virus was making its way around the globe after emerging in China. Japan's government closed all schools through March in an effort to combat the outbreak. Iran canceled Friday Prayers in major cities, a cornerstone ritual of the Islamic Republic. Saudi Arabia barred pilgrims from visiting Mecca and Medina.
President Trump announced that Vice President Mike Pence would lead the American effort to combat the virus, but the administration continued to send mixed messages. Public health officials warned of potentially "major disruptions," while Mr. Trump blamed Democrats and cable news channels for overstating the threat. Financial markets continued their weeklong declines. In the Middle East, concerns built about the growing severity of the outbreak in Iran, the source of infections in many other countries. The government said on Thursday that 245 people had been infected and 26 had died, but experts say there are probably many more cases. Several countries registered new infections that illustrated the diverse ways the pathogen could cross borders.
President Trump announced that Vice President Mike Pence would lead the American effort to combat the virus, but the administration continued to send mixed messages. Public health officials warned of potentially "major disruptions," while Mr. Trump blamed Democrats and cable news channels for overstating the threat. Financial markets continued their weeklong declines. In the Middle East, concerns built about the growing severity of the outbreak in Iran, the source of infections in many other countries. The government said on Thursday that 245 people had been infected and 26 had died, but experts say there are probably many more cases. Several countries registered new infections that illustrated the diverse ways the pathogen could cross borders.
This should surprise no one. (Score:5, Insightful)
Anybody paying any real attention to what's been happening in China - if via the CCP's response only - should have realized that what was being said and what were being done were at massive odds.
The nicest thing that I think someone can say about the narrative presented by various governments and international agencies is that without keeping the economies going (and thus, food, medicine, and everything else dependent on functioning supply chains) and ensuring social order, it all comes crashing down. But that may be giving too much credit.
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Pac-Man ate yellow pills. But anyhoo, I'm sure that's about as accurate as anything else you've got dreamed up in that pointy little head of yours
Re:Both sides being wrong and retarded again. (Score:5, Insightful)
Re "siding with humanity" just set up more nations to allow more sick people to move around for longer.
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What if the US still had competent advisors in the cabinet, and a highly effective state department? Then the US could have told Japan they were quarantining that ship all wrong and given them the technical help they needed to do it right, as just one example.
The problem with nationalism is the unqualified sycophants at the head of government agencies, with their only job being spinning the failures: "we are suffering because of the browns/apostates/liberals/others, because our dear leader was more prepared
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The world got told of the results of US, other nation efforts re "quarantining that ship"...
Re 'technical help they needed to do it right".. most nations just kept accepting the free movement of students, illegal migrants and tourists globally.
"The problem with nationalism"
Re:Both sides being wrong and retarded again. (Score:5, Informative)
What if the US still had competent advisors in the cabinet, and a highly effective state department?
It would have made no difference. America was never in a position to control the spread of COVID-19.
Then the US could have told Japan they were quarantining that ship all wrong
The cruise ship had a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19. A different quarantine policy might have delayed the spread of the virus in Japan for a week or so, but would have had no effect in the other 47+ infected countries.
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Re "disease doesn't need a passport"... the people expected to have wuflu could have been kept out of a lot of other nations with the use of passport controls..
Re "recognize borders".. people from nations with wuflu could have stopped entering nations as tourists, students, academics... with the use of passport controls...
Explain how Having an American passport stops you from being infected with the virus while in another country?
How does stopping non-Americans stop Americans bringing the virus back home with them?
Nationalism cuts both ways (Score:4, Insightful)
Nationalism would have protected a few more nations.
That depends. Nationalism might also lead to an outbreak being hidden until it was too big to contain because no nation would want to admit that they were the source of the outbreak due to the damage to national pride. See how China handled the earlier SARS outbreak. Fortunately, they learned their lesson and realized that, despite the earlier poster, when fighting a disease there is only one side to be on: that of humanity.
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So allow random sick people to enter every nation they want so they can be tracked and given ICU beds...
Where did I say that?
Reality check - this is one person (Score:2)
should have realized that what was being said and what were being done were at massive odds.
I totally think China is lying, but on the other hand let's get real here - this is one person, who probably got this from an infected surface.
The reality is that this thing seems to be spreading outside China much more slowly than I was expecting, especially in the U.S., and in much lower numbers than you would expect from something supposedly so contagious.
In the end how many people will get this this outside China
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3,711 passengers and crew were quarantined after a passenger on the Diamond Princess tested positive COVID-19. As of February 24th 2020, 691 passengers have tested positive, 4 have died.
Wikipedia.
The cruise ship seems like a good model for what will happen in America, I would think the cruise ship would have worse numbers than an American city.
Re: Reality check - this is one person (Score:4, Insightful)
The cruise ship quarantine was guaranteed to get more people sick. They quarantined the passengers but still had much if the crew moving around, eat in their mess, etc, which allowed the virus to spread. If they had actually allowed all people on board to disembark and quarantined them on land then fewer people would have gotten sick.
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The US press and their stupid obsession with Trump fucked this up for everyone. They took any slight difference between what the CDC was saying and what Trump was saying as proof he was lying, despite the fact that there genuinely is a huge amount of uncertainty here and that just like Trump, neither the WHO nor European countries considered a pandemic inevitable. Let's not even get into the whole absurd "Trump virus" piece the New York Times ran...
5th article today (Score:5, Funny)
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Quick! Someone alert Rei!
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Prepare while supplies are available (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Prepare while supplies are available (Score:5, Insightful)
You're ready to get robbed because you didn't arm yourself.
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What a weird non-sequitur. Why would you assume he's not armed? Ah, Prius. Right. Therefore, liberal, therefore, unarmed. Is that about the long and short of your logical process?
What a strange world you live in, where everyone is a stereotype. Where you can tell, instantly and from very few clues, exactly what "tribe" someone belongs to, and whether or not to wish death on them.
Re:Prepare while supplies are available (Score:4, Insightful)
Because he went on about everything he bought up, and didn't mention ammo.
Nice try, troll.
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You are silly, firearms hobbyists already have massive quanties of ammo. They are always stocked up
Re:Prepare while supplies are available (Score:5, Insightful)
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Yes there is. Ask any machine gunner in a sinking landing craft.
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Yes, there is. It's the main reason NATO went from 7.62 mm to 5.56 -- to decrease the weight and allow soldiers to carry more shots for longer periods. If you have to carry the stuff with you everywhere you go, there certainly is such a thing as too much ammo.
Re:Prepare while supplies are available (Score:5, Funny)
You'd make a fantastic debate opponent.
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He didn't mention a lot of things, troll. Is he stocked up on cleaning supplies? Did he buy a can opener? Is he prepared for camping in cold weather? Inquiring minds must know!
Maybe the dude has a fully stocked ammo bench and makes his own. Maybe he doesn't feel the need to brandish his armed status. You don't know. And frankly, I don't believe you care.
In any case, it's a weird tangent to go on, with a hostile tone, for no good reason.
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HAHAHA, perfect! Thank you!
Sexconker said, "You're ready to get robbed because you didn't arm yourself."
I said, "You're going to get cancer because your diet is shitty."
The fact that you thought that was hostile proves that sexconker's post was as well, because as you can plainly see, I just copied his post and changed a couple of words. Wow. I could not have hoped for a more perfectly unaware post. Again, thank you for playing along so very, very well.
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I wonder if lawyers feel the same when they're outwitted their opponents and tricked them into putting themselves in a position they can't escape.
It's more satisfying than just troutslapping someone when they do it to themselves.
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you copied his post and changed half the words? wow what a master level move
it's not like language permits changing the meaning of a sentence entirely by changing even only the punctuation, let alone entire words, but ok
don't want to interrupt your self-patting session
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I don't know about you but I don't advertise when I'm armed.
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All extremist killings in the US in 2019 had links to the right wing:
https://www.businessinsider.co... [businessinsider.com]
Your turn. What have you got, sport?
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Of course not everyone who drives a Prius is liberal or left of center. I'm just trying to follow sexconker's twisted logic. The alt right always assumes people who drive a Prius are soy-boy cucked lefties.
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Of course not everyone who drives a Prius is liberal or left of center. I'm just trying to follow sexconker's twisted logic. The alt right always assumes people who drive a Prius are soy-boy cucked lefties.
That's why I check to see if the driver has dinner plates for earlobes, a beard, and thick black rimmed hipster glasses, before flipping them off.
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You're ready to get robbed because you didn't arm yourself.
Shhhhh! When I run out of water and dog food first thing I'm looking for is a Prius whose rear suspension looks overloaded that also has a dog in it.
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there are at least three cases of people testing positive
3 out of 90,000 cases. Most people only get it once.
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Vaccine is going to be like the flu vaccine, hit and miss and wearing out as Corona-viruses mutate a lot.
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PSA: minimum 140 proof (Score:2)
second , you need at least 70% alcohol to kill the virus. Might as well kill two birds with one stone [laballey.com], if you can find a local supplier. Good lord that's a lot of Moscow Mules!
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My gas tank is topped off and I'm ready to evacuate if the situation escalates.
Even assuming you're joking, evacuate to where dong-dong. Staying in your home is the safest way to avoid exposure.
Food wise I bought ~50 cans of food and ~20 cans of dog food.
Also, you need more dog food than people food if you want them to live long enough for you to eventually eat them -- otherwise your starving dog(s) might try to eat you or force you to eat them before you're ready. Haven't you ever played Hack? Think ahead man. (Please ignore if you don't have any pets and were just being cheap on the "people" food.)
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This particular virus has only a 2% mortality rate. the early 2000's SAR virus had an 11% mortality rate. Symptoms range from a horrible cold to symptom-less carriers. If you're moderately healthy, not super old or young, this is just a bad cold. Why "go" anywhere? Just stay home, watch TV and burn a few sick days.
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Re:Prepare while supplies are available (Score:4, Insightful)
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Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)
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Depends. Alcohol works on this one.
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...Thanks for doing your part to boost the retail economy, though.
In fact, wasting resources has no social benefit [wikipedia.org].
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Yes, it does.
No idea why you think otherwise.
Bad school education?
They even work on bacteria, mostly ....
Financial solution ... (Score:5, Funny)
Financial markets continued their week-long declines.
Trump will impose a tariff on the Coronavirus ... :-)
Re:Financial solution ... (Score:5, Insightful)
You joke, but tariffs may be necessary here. China makes the vast majority of medical supplies these days, especially PPE (gloves, masks, etc), and apparently most of it is made in the current quarantine zone (where the factories are closed). What supply there is, China is (wisely) keeping for domestic use rather than exporting. Suppliers have hospitals on allocation right now, and the situation is projected to get much worse before it gets better.
Almost EVERYTHING in healthcare these days is a one use item, and none of it is made here. Tariffs may be necessary to create an incentive to produce these things in the US so in the event supply chains are disrupted, we can still have the basic tools we need to provide everyday services, much less deal with an outbreak ourselves.
Re:Financial solution ... (Score:5, Funny)
China makes the vast majority of medical supplies these days, ...
Good points and I was initially going to note that I read that the majority of the N95 respirators recommended over the simple surgical masks are made in China, in the quarantined zones. Which, of course, means you'll need to wear two respirators - oh, wait. :-)
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As usual for political reactives, the time to do something about that was years ago, but it won't be enacted until the crisis has passed if at all.
A significant contributor to this is the MBA fad for Just In Time rather than carrying stock.
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Agreed that any solution will likely be years in the making, and we should have done something long ago. Like you, I am less than optimistic that we will learn our lesson here.
For what it's worth, carrying stock is a problem with medical. EVERYTHING has expiration dates (PPE included) and the stuff has to be disposed of when expired. In theory, it would be great to warehouse "expired" items against future need but the logistics of doing so are not trivial (where do you put it? How do you get it there? W
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That's why you rotate the stock.
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Tariffs may be necessary to create an incentive to produce these things in the US so in the event supply chains are disrupted
I got news for you. If we wanted to avoid disruptions, then we should have been building those supply chains at usual speed about six years ago and in earnest like a year and a half ago. We are way past the point for producing these things in the US without disruption.
Re: Financial solution ... (Score:2)
Silly Coronavirus never played Plague, Inc I guess (Score:5, Funny)
Everybody who's won that game knows that you add the fatal symptoms AFTER you infect everybody... duh. If you add them early on, everyone panics and shuts down the national borders and airports. You'll never get a chance to infect everyone before a cure is developed.
They might as well just start over now... they're never going to get Greenland and Madagascar infected at this point :)
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re-infect using the antibodies
Oh please stop the diarrhea from coming out your mouth. You have no clue what you're even saying.
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What better name is there for the brain parasite vector?
God
Even the pope called in sick (Score:2)
But apparently it's only a small inconvenience. (wink, wink)
Trade Talks Time (Score:2, Funny)
Trump needs to have face to face trade talks with the Chinese right now while they are vulnerable.
Rumor has it they have the vaccine and cure for COVID19 so if he can use his awesome business man skills to get that too he'll save the world and get that nobel peace prize he deserves.
Get on AirForce one now and head east Donald!
You'll be fine, it's probably all a hoax anyway like all the other hoaxes that the Chinese started...
We're in good hands? (Score:4, Funny)
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We could run out of popcorn.
Seriously, this slowly looks more and more like the average disaster movie.
No honest, No Safety (Score:4, Interesting)
Few governments will have the will, to have required quarantines. Besides the fact that our borderless world is leakier than a bucket hit with buck shot.
Just my 2 cents
Saw that lab workers often (Score:2)
Article [nypost.com] fun fun trying to stop this
Just my 2 cents
US taking it serious (Score:4, Interesting)
Right from the get go they will use the weapon of choice usually reserved for shootings.."thoughts and prayers ", and who better the lead the country in a Mass "thoughts and prayers" get together than Pence.
Just remember folks
If you can not afford to get tested, cough on someone rich.
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Nobody buys this idiotic false dichotomy then projection two-step.
Pence will pray -and- make scientific mainstream mitigations of the virus.
Re:US taking it serious (Score:4, Funny)
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Yep, still an idiot. Guess what, you can do both of two things, at the same time. Well, maybe you can't. You do seem like somebody likely to drool all over himself attempting to use a fork.
California health officials monitoring 8,400 cases (Score:2)
California state health officials are monitoring 8,400 cases of the novel coronavirus [axios.com]
All of these people have travel history from China, but are not currently showing symptoms. Those individuals have been advised to stay in their homes for 14 days, the recommended incubation period for the virus. 28 of the confirmed cases currently reside in California. The other five have left the state, Newsom indicated. It’s unclear whether the 33 cases are from the evacuated Diamond Princess cruise ship that was
Re:#CoronavirusGoGoGo! (Score:4, Informative)
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I like that this got modded informative.
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The flu is everywhere all the time.
nCoV-19 has much higher lethality, but it's just getting started in spreading. (Oh, and the real death count is likely an order of magnitude larger than officially reported.)
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The flu is everywhere all the time.
nCoV-19 has much higher lethality, but it's just getting started in spreading. (Oh, and the real death count is likely an order of magnitude larger than officially reported.)
Bad news, the virus that causes covid19 is going to be everywhere all the time and it’s looking like people who get infected and recover do not retain lasting immunity to even the exact same strain.
Re:50k people die from flu every year (Score:4, Informative)
One of the things you should do when talking about a single average figure like "lethality rate" is break it down to see what variation is being hidden by that single figure. For example people who have a preexisting condition such as diabetes, respiratory disease, or cancer have a much higher mortality rate.
In China, the lethality rate is much higher in Wuhan than it is outside Hubei.
I think what this tells us is more goes into "lethality" rate than the characteristics of the virus. The characteristics of the population and the preparedness of the health care delivery system also play crucial roles.
The lethality of this infectious agent is, to some degree, under our control.
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Is the lethality really under our control? Or is there just selective pressure for the virus to become even more stealthy and asymptomatic? The aggressive strains may be dropping their hosts too fast and/or too hard to be good for propagation. You may recall that similar things have happened with Ebola, which used to be upwards of 80% fatal even with medical support, but now it's more like 35-40% in those field hospitals in West Africa, and 25% in first-world hospitals. Making healthy people handle the sick
Re: 50k people die from flu every year (Score:3)
Attacking a government is not in any way whatsoever equivalent to attacking a people.
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Just like he came up with an even better healthcare plan that we all love?
He sure tried, too bad John "singing bird" McCain threw a wrench into that.
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Sure. Poor people die off and there's a lot more legroom for us with the money. What's not to like?
And if you need serfs for the labor, well, we can always import some. They even come here on their own, no need to haul them in like we used to in the good old days.
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Re:50k people die from flu every year (Score:5, Informative)
According to the Times, the White House has been trying to tighten its messaging on the virus by having all statements about it cleared first through Pence's office."
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Every year, well before anyone you know has caught the flu, you can go down to your corner drugstore and get vaccine for the strains in circulation that year. Making that happen requires a giant surveillance, research, and industrial infrastructure that exists because flu is bad. Very bad.
The only reason that flu isn't bigger news every year is because we're already doing literally everything anyone can think of to contain it. If there was an emergent strain of the flu which this year's vaccine gives no p
Re:50k people die from flu every year (Score:4, Informative)
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As I posted elsewhere, we don't really know what the COVID-19 lethality rate will be in the general population. The numbers coming out of China seem to be worse in Hubei, the center of the epidemic.
This suggests the composite lethality rate includes people who died because they came to a system that was either unprepared or overwhelmed. So it behooves us to be prepared.
There's no doubt, however, the thing has legs.
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Re:50k people die from flu every year (Score:5, Interesting)
It is likely that the mortality rate is much higher, and here's why. The 2% comes from dividing the number of dead by the number that have been infected. The problem is that we are still so early on in this that not even half of those infected have recovered yet. In other words, we haven't given them enough time to die from the virus yet to increase the mortality rate.
If you take the number of recovered plus the number of deaths (in other words, the total of those infected for whom we know the outcome of), and take the deaths as a percentage of that, you get a mortality rate of 7.26%. It's possible that some of those infected have recovered, but perhaps not counted as recovered (it's easier to track dead bodies than people that got better and disappeared), so more than likely the reality lies somewhere in the middle. I'm guessing 4-5%. Only time will tell, and more accurate reporting from countries like South Korea, Italy, etc that I assume will have more complete numbers.
At this moment, the numbers I'm using for above are:
Total Confirmed Infected: 83,342
Total Recovered: 36,488
Total Still Sick: 46,854 (extrapolated from the above two numbers)
Total Deaths: 2,856
Total Deaths + Total Recovered = 39,344 individuals for which we know the outcome of (either recovered or died)
2,856 / 39,344 = 0.0726 or 7.26%
Also, another concerning bit of information is the Japanese woman who tested positive in January, recovered, and is now testing positive again. It's not clear if she's symptomatic or not, but if she's testing positive then she is still contagious over a month later.