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Medicine

Coronavirus Outbreak Has 'Pandemic Potential' But It's Not There Yet, WHO Says (cnn.com) 134

Posted by msmash from the state-of-things dept.
The deadly outbreak of a novel coronavirus has the world on edge, but it has not yet developed into a pandemic, according to the World Health Organization. From a report: Although WHO has declared the outbreak a "public health emergency of international concern," the outbreak has not met the criteria needed to be described as a pandemic when it comes to its geographical spread and impact, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing with reporters on Monday. "Our decision about whether to use the word 'pandemic' to describe an epidemic is based on an ongoing assessment of the geographical spread of the virus, the severity of disease it causes and the impact it has on the whole society," Ghebreyesus said during the briefing. "For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or deaths," he said. "Does this virus have pandemic potential? Absolutely it has. Are we there yet from our assessment? Not yet. So how should we describe the current situation? What we see are epidemics in different parts of the world, affecting countries in different ways and requiring a tailored response."
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Coronavirus Outbreak Has 'Pandemic Potential' But It's Not There Yet, WHO Says More

Coronavirus Outbreak Has 'Pandemic Potential' But It's Not There Yet, WHO Says

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  • pan: across
    demos: people

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by DRJlaw ( 946416 )

      pan: across
      demos: people

      Which would appear to be relatively duplicative of
      epi: upon
      demos: the people

      Except that words are not limited to the meanings of their roots.

      For instance [who.int], "an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people.â

      So no, not really there yet.

    • Re:It's a pandemic. (Score:5, Informative)

      by slack_justyb ( 862874 ) on Monday February 24, 2020 @04:40PM (#59762506)

      That is not the definition used by the WHO. The current situation has not obtained pandemic because it is not "widespread". China as of 2/23 had 77,130 confirmed cases. The country in second place is South Korea with 803 confirmed cases. That is 1.0411% of the leading country's cases. Japan is in third place with about the same percentage. That is hardly widespread and everything from the first three precipitously drops off. However, that's not an attempt to make light of the situation. This has the potential, but it has yet to achieve widespread status. This thing is still very concentrated based off the current data that the WHO is working with.

      • Comment removed (Score:4, Interesting)

        by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Monday February 24, 2020 @05:03PM (#59762610)
        Comment removed based on user account deletion

        • Re:It's a pandemic. (Score:5, Funny)

          by NFN_NLN ( 633283 ) on Monday February 24, 2020 @05:07PM (#59762624)

          Recession: Your neighbor is out of work
          Depression: You're out of work

          Outbreak: Your neighbor has the virus
          Pandemic: You have the virus

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by rtb61 ( 674572 )

          For some strange reason it hasn't hit the third world yet but many countries have already set up full border quarantine blocking all travel. Seeming establishing a border shut with third world countries when it hits them Africa especially and some countries in South America. Then people will call it a pandemic and take extreme measure to prevent the escape from those countries as it ravages them.

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by ixs ( 36283 )

            It hasn't hit the third world yet, because the third world has done no testing to speak of as they had no kits. Once testing kits got delivered, they got their first case in Egypt...

            Expect more cases to pop up.

      • > That is hardly widespread and everything from the first three precipitously drops off.

        That doesn't really mean anything at this point. It reminds me of visualizing exponential growth. There is a good example of a stadium filling up with water starting with a drop and exponentially increasing every minute. It doesn't take long to go from "hardly widespread and precipitously drops off" and it being too late.

        The question is whether it can be contained or not. Do you think China has it contained? Do you th

        • I don't believe it's contained in Italy. The outbreak has taken the Italian government by surprise, and given the long incubation period, the possibility of contagion without symptoms, and the ease of travel to neighboring countries, it's almost guaranteed that we're going to see outbreaks elsewhere in Europe. Japan and South Korea are more geographically isolated so it's easier to screen travelers, but in Europe people literally commute daily across the borders. It's probably too late to lock down the bord

        • Do you think China has it contained? Do you think other nations have it contained or can contain it?

          Why do people launch into things like "Do YOU think" You know what, it doesn't matter what I think. You ought to direct those questions to the WHO. I'm just pointing out what their definition says.

          I don't trust China and the numbers coming out of China.

          Okay. I'm not sure how that changes squat but okay.

          Hopefully, we get some good news and soon that isn't overshadowed by it coming from a censorious authoritarian government

          I mean that last part comes off a bit tin foil ish, but you do you.

          • > Why do people launch into things like "Do YOU think"

            It's called discussion. I think you are reading too much into it or taking it personal. The point I was making wasn't about the literal definition the WHO is using because frankly I don't care. I care about whether it will cross that threshold and if it can be kept quarantined.

            > direct those questions to the WHO

            Who? You? Ok. Is the Who here? Because if so I need an autograph. For a friend of course.

            > that last part comes off a bit tin foil ish,

      • Concentrated - in 27 countries.

        • The number of countries aren't used in the definition. I mean shit, there's only 15 confirm cases in the United States, are we seriously going to say it's got a firm foothold here? Hence the reason why it goes by percentage of total infected. I mean if you don't like that definition and you feel you've got a better one, by all means drop an email over to the UN.

          • The US is up to 53, now. A tad over 80K global infections, a little under 3K deaths. But to get to full pandemic, I think they need significant outbreaks across two or more continents. Right now it's just Asia.

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by piojo ( 995934 )

            I mean shit, there's only 15 confirm cases in the United States, are we seriously going to say it's got a firm foothold here?

            For something that grows exponentially, 15 cases seems like a pretty strong foothold, unless the average spread coefficient can be brought down very quickly.

      • The country in second place is South Korea with 803 confirmed cases.

        Iran is in second place, though...

        • WHO is reporting as of 2020-02-24 that there are 64 confirmed cases in Iran. 64 > 803 ???

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by piojo ( 995934 )

            I'm not sure what exactly the GP is referring to, but I heard rumors that Iran is experiencing a lot of unofficial fatalities and has a more virulent strain.

            • and has a more virulent strain.

              Or at least less health care and a higher rate of cigarette smoking.

          • Great plan, lets use confirmed cases from a country with no test kits and where millions of people don't have access to basic health care.

            That will tell you something for sure!

            64 is less than 803. That is true. Now figure out what the fuck you would want to count.

            Which is bigger, 803 confirmed cases, or of thousands of actual cases?

            • Great plan, lets use confirmed cases from a country with no test kits and where millions of people don't have access to basic health care.

              Well then let's just fucking make up numbers then. I mean who fucking cares about fact then? If you aren't going to use the numbers they give you. If you just want to tinfoil all day long, then just fucking make up whatever numbers make you feel great. I mean at some point people just want to fucking hit the panic button and say "SHIT WE'RE ALL GOING TO FUCKING DIE!!!!!" And then justify that position by, "YOU CAN'T TRUST THEM. WHAT IS A COUNTABLE THING?!"

              It's very clear that the vast majority on Slas

              • It is spreading rapidly "everywhere" now.

                Quoting numbers even when you know they're wrong and they're days to weeks behind, by their nature, is silly.

                You do have to "just make up numbers" and guess at a realistic range that the numbers might be in. Instead of using the crappy numbers, because somebody reported them.

    • No it isn't you autist. That is not how the definitions of words are found. The relevant definition has global extent.

      "Transpire" doesn't mean "breath through" either.

    • That is NOT the definition used for pandemic. It is widespread across multiple countries and spreading from person to person relatively uncontrolled.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by hey! ( 33014 )

      Actually "pan" means "all", but let's not fall into the etymological fallacy here and assume all seven billion people on the planet have to be infected.

      The actual definition of a pandemic is that it is an infectious disease which infects an unusually large number of people and which crosses national boundaries. Note the inclusion of political boundaries in the definition. It describes a situation where keeping the infection out of your country is likely an exercise in futility.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by pz ( 113803 )

        Actually "pan" means "all"

        Actually, it means across, completely, entirely, or spanning. It does not mean all.

        Think of the pangalactic gargle blaster.

        • Unless you cite a source. Nope.

          Pan means all or everything by every linguistic authority on the meaning of Greek prefixes. Any high schooler who took the SATs knows this.
          • In regards to an outbreak, pandemkc it means it hits the vast majority of geographic bodies of land and their populations.

            • Re: (Score:3)

              by hey! ( 33014 )

              That could not possibly be true, because HIV is a "pandemic" and the vast majority of people are not infected.

              • Vast majority of geographic bodies. Not vast majority of the population. Only a segment of the population but cases still occur in almost each country. Seems like one can never be specific enough on /. Lol

                That being said at least AIDs isnt like it used to be in the 80s/90s

          • Pan means all or everything by every linguistic authority on the meaning of Greek prefixes. Any high schooler who took the SATs knows this.

            Which means you'd be correct if we spoke ancient greek. Not only usage, but meaning and definitions can change over time and depend on context. I find it hard to believe that this is news to you.

    • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

      The etymological fallacy is a genetic fallacy that holds that the present-day meaning of a word or phrase should necessarily be similar to its historical meaning.[1]
      This is a linguistic misconception,[2] and is sometimes used as a basis for linguistic prescription.
      An argument constitutes an etymological fallacy if it makes a claim about the present meaning of a word based exclusively on its etymology.[1]

      An etymological fallacy may involve looking for the true meaning of words by delving into their etymologies,[3] or claiming that a word should be used in a particular way because it has a particular etymology.[1]

  • lapdog (Score:2, Flamebait)

    by Big Bipper ( 1120937 )
    The WHO is a political lapdog in service to it's paymasters. It will be a pandemic when Emperor Xi allows it to become one.

  • "WHO has declared the outbreak a "public health emergency of international concern"

    "Who?"

    "Yes."

  • Oh sure it's not YET a Pandemic..

    IMHO - I think it is sooo close as to be nearly indistinguishable from a pandemic. I just don't see how we avoid this one, it's gone way too far now.

    We had ONE person attend a church service in South Korea who was sick and she infected nearly a thousand people. All it takes is a couple of stupid folks and this thing is out of quarantine and will rage like wild fire. The best we can hope for is to delay it.

    The problem with this scenario is that this will quickly overwhe

    • You guys are nuts. The H1N1 pandemic infected over 60 million people just in the US and killed 12,000. And yet, we survived. It happens. Life goes on. People die of things.

      • Re:Oh sure it's not YET a Pandemic.. (Score:5, Informative)

        by coastwalker ( 307620 ) <acoastwalker.hotmail@com> on Monday February 24, 2020 @06:02PM (#59762854) Homepage

        As noted by u/Hafomeng
        The virulence (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated between 1.4-6.49, with a mean estimate of 3.28 . This mean estimate is much higher than the seasonal flu, which has an R0 of 1.3 . What this means is that SARS-CoV-2 spreads significantly faster than the seasonal flu.

        The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of SARS-CoV-2 is at least 2-3% . This is 20-30 times higher than the CFR of the season flu, which is below 0.1% .

        SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted without the infected showing any symptoms . This makes it much more difficult to control.

        Roughly 20% of SARS-CoV-2 infections result in serious symptoms that require medical intervention . This is more than 10 times the hospitalization rate of the seasonal flu.

        Symptoms from SARS-CoV-2 can persist over a month compared to the seasonal flu where symptoms typically tend to clear after 5 days.

        There is no vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 whereas people regularly get annual flu shots.

        There is no herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 which means that it can theoretically infect the entire population. See, for example, a Korean psychiatric department where the virus infected 99/102 people.

        Now consider the multiplicative effect that all of these attributes have for the virus. Compared to the seasonal flu, SARS-CoV-2 (1) spreads faster; (2) kills far more; (3) is harder to control; (4) requires use of far more medical resources; (5) for far longer a period of time; (6) has no effective treatment; and (7) can infect entire populations.

        These factors mean that SARS-CoV-2, if left unchecked, is far more likely to overwhelm a country's medical infrastructure. Additionally, when medical infrastructure is overwhelmed, the CFR will skyrocket because we know that 20% of cases require medical intervention.

        It doesn't take a genius to piece it all together. This virus is potentially devastating if containment measures fail. Far worse than the seasonal flu.

      • You guys are nuts. The H1N1 pandemic infected over 60 million people just in the US and killed 12,000. And yet, we survived. It happens. Life goes on. People die of things.

        Are we? Look, I'm only saying it's time to prepare, it's coming here. And I'm not making the claim that it will end society as we know it. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see what's going to happen if this virus gets out into the general population of say New York City and for a couple of months we have folks huddled in their hovels trying to not get sick, or get well if they are. It's going to be a huge mess, with hospitals stuffed to the gills with flu patients, many requiring significant amount

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by sjames ( 1099 )

      That is why WHO while not declaring this a pandemic HAS declared it to be an emergency. It's time to watch closely and prepare.

    • I agree it is probably going to be a shitstorm. If I get it, I hope I get it early so that treatment and hospital beds will still be available.

      Worst case scenario is that hospital staff don't turn up to work, and who could blame them. They've got to think not only of themselves but of everyone in their households.

    • "We had ONE person attend a church service in South Korea who was sick and she infected nearly a thousand people. All it takes is a couple of stupid folks and this thing is out of quarantine and will rage like wild fire. The best we can hope for is to delay it. "

      Why on earth would you want to delay it?

      The best thing to do is to find someone that has it, and send your kids over to play with them. The sooner they catch it and get over it without dying, the better off we will be. Yes, some people will die, b

      • That's what anti-vaxxers say about measles, and measles is less dangerous than 5% lethality.

        People survive in 95% of cases when and if massive intensive care is available, because 20% of patients require ICU hospitalization. Since ICU beds are severely limited and expensive, delaying the course of the outbreak dramaticaly improves the odds of people needing an ICU bed to get one. Then and only then is the lethality around 5%. If the 20% don't get ICU beds, most of them will die. So a delay in outbreak means

      • Because a slow trickle of sick people is normal and relatively easy to deal with and a flood of a lot of them is debilitating. Also, the more you delay the better treatment options will be available: send your kids over now and be glad some of them lived, or delay the spread and get them all vaccinated and/or mAb and they're all fine.

  • WHO is Probably Worried About Offending Someone (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Vandil X ( 636030 ) on Monday February 24, 2020 @05:19PM (#59762670)
    There should be an agreed-upon protocol that suspends passenger flights/ships from going to/from the area of disease origin, or, if necessary the entire country.

    In this case, flights and things were suspended way too late.

    Now that they are waiting for things to get worse before making an official declaration, I wonder what else has been bungled in the containment of this virus that could have been done sooner.

    • This sounds reasonable, but you have to realize that if there are automatic protocols, known in advance, that will drive countries to not report outbreaks.

      This is your "hurting someone feelings" strawperson argument.

      If people and countries are stigmatized, you incentive people to not report or not seek treatment, or change their behavior in any way to avoid suspicion as long as they can.

      This makes things worse.

      If people and countries know there will not be unreasonable responses, they are much more likely t

      • "If people and countries know there will not be unreasonable responses, they are much more likely to do what is right."

        Funny that no one ever believes this argument when it relates to environmental protection, speeding, hard drug usage and ownership of automatic long range grenade launchers.

    • Re:WHO is Probably Worried About Offending Someone (Score:4, Interesting)

      by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Monday February 24, 2020 @08:16PM (#59763300)
      Unfortunately, that relies on all countries and all people cooperating. Cambodia accepted an "infected" cruise ship [bbc.com] that had been refused entry by other countries because its passengers had visited the infected zone. Their king apparently didn't take this outbreak seriously. They did some rudimentary testing, and released nearly everyone to go home as they wished. One of the released passengers took a flight to Malaysia, where she was diagnosed with a fever and tested positive for the virus. Cambodia then blocked the remaining passengers from leaving, but by then hundreds had already left. Hundreds of potential ticking time bombs released into the global transportation system.

      Japan tried a draconian quarantine measures with the infected cruise ships in its ports, which was probably the correct thing to do. All it got them was two weeks of bad press as people complained about conditions aboard the ship. Even last week, I was still seeing articles in the media trying to downplay the outbreak, saying that you were still more likely to die from the flu (they left out, "for now"). Anyone who's been following this and looking at the numbers knows this has the potential to become a repeat of the 1918 Spanish Flu. 3% of the world died from that. But people just don't seem to want to take this seriously.

      This thing is probably out of control. You know those zombie movies were an infected person, in denial about being infected and paranoid that they'll be trapped in the quarantine zone, does everything they can to get home, and blithely passes the infection on to everyone they meet along the way? That's pretty much what's going on. Hundreds, if not thousands of people, in denial that they might be infected and refusing to consider the risk they present to others, are doing their damndest to get home, and succeeding. The CDC recommended against repatriating the Americans aboard the Japanese cruise ship who had tested positive. Someone at the State Department overruled them and allowed those people to fly to the U.S., swayed by their pleas that they just wanted to go home.
      • China, the country with the ability to impose the most draconian containment policies, is only slowing the infection rate to the rest of the World.

        TLDR: We're all going to get the opportunity to experience infection.

        • interestingly their draconian policies and crackdown is probably the one saving grace, had this started in the UK or US or some other european country it would be worldwide by now. listening to a debate the other night where everyone was slamming china for their cruelty and lack of human rights over this, while the medical researchers where the only ones saying ,ahhhh wait a minute we have similiar laws and powers here to quarantine and if we are afraid to use them then we would basically be fucked under a

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by makomk ( 752139 )

        Japan's draconian "quarantine" measures got bad press because they were a terrible idea that made things worse. The whole point of quarantine is to prevent the spread of the virus, but what Japan did instead ensured its rapid spread within the cruise ship. Then, after it had time to spread thoroughly, they released a bunch of people who were probably incubating the virus out into the world.

  • Engineered virus by 1st-world powers targeting their ennemies, or a bad solution for population control? Discuss below.

    • Every time narcissistic loonies learn of a new virus outbreak they start speaking garbage. Discuss below.

      • "Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you." — Joseph Heller

        • But because you're paranoid - you're just another lunatic.

          I.e. Your thoughts and ideas are literally a product of a mentally ill mind. By own admission even.
          Should any of those thoughts and ideas prove to be correct in hindsight, that is not an argument for "sanity all along" - that's coincidence.

        • absolutely, They are all out to get you. Better go run and hide. Surprised you risk getting on the internet.
      • I can see the loonies but narcissistic does not seem to fit very well.
        I would say that there is a difference between possibilities, speculation and being convinced.
        I believe the op was regarding possibilities and speculation, I would say that to my view of it there is the possibility and no real evidence to destroy speculation. I don't see population control as realistic but a virus being used as a weapon or having the potential to be used seems possible.

        There was a book authored by Tom Clancy which h

    • Engineered, sure. Accidentally released without vaccine counter measures developed? Most likely. Superbugs are created in the lab for research purposes. [zerohedge.com]

      Pretty ironic it'll likely be hubris that does us all in, rather than an actual state-sponsored bio warfare attack.

    • Engineered virus by 1st-world powers targeting their ennemies, or a bad solution for population control? Discuss below.

      I'm not certain why the two are mutually exclusive.

  • Crosses fingers (Score:4, Insightful)

    by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Monday February 24, 2020 @06:06PM (#59762874)

    Come on covid-19! You can do it! We believe in you!

  • Shrinking (Score:4, Interesting)

    by AK Marc ( 707885 ) on Monday February 24, 2020 @06:49PM (#59763016)
    So long as Italy doesn't explode in cases, it's shrinking. China has more cures per day than new cases per day. In 4 weeks, they won't be the leading country. China has it under control, it's the rest of the world now.

    • Does China have it under control, or have they simply just ran out of test-kits and have stopped reporting?

      Who is gullible enough to give China the benefit of the doubt?

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by fenrif ( 991024 )

        Well China says they have it under control, and they've said that since day one. The WHO says China has it under control, and they are an organisation wracked with corruption, so you know you can trust them!

        • This is the culture where there was a widespread scandal of industrial waste was being as a filler for baby formula. There seems to be no level of corruption or deceit they won't sink to. These guys also have the adorable habit of euthanizing dogs, including people's pets, by clubbing the animals to death.

          There's absolutely nothing about the Chinese that inspires confidence.

          I trust WHO as about as much as that UN Human Rights Counsel that's chaired by Saudi Arabia.

      • The trend for viruses like this is to decrease in virulence over time, as the less virulent strains spread more easily. If we can slow it down, it'll naturally attentuate and what ends up spreading worldwide will be less of an issue than the initial outbreak.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by AK Marc ( 707885 )
        When they ran out of test kits, their reported numbers jumped. This caused racists to panic. The issue was before they ran out of test kits, they used a test kit result to diagnose. After, they used the clinical test method. Test kits are the correct and expected method for a small number of infected, or a slowly spreading disease. Clinical diagnosis is used when the numbers grow. So the spike was "people diagnoses with COVID-19 symptoms who haven't been tested" going from "not counted" to "counted".

        • When they ran out of test kits, their reported numbers jumped. This caused racists to panic.

          I just stopped there. I don't have time to evaluate information by people so disingenuous they just slap the racist label on people who have every reason to be concerned.

          Give my regards to your supervising political officer. You deserve the extra social credit points.

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by AK Marc ( 707885 )
            The "bat soup" racists switched to "their numbers are lies".

            That you defend racists doesn't mean they don't exist.

            • China has well-known culture of being scam artists, fraudsters, and liars, and the government will say anything to save face. Not to mention protect their delicate economy from the image of a raging epidemic. There isn't even enough salt to take with the numbers China puts out, who the hell is going to take their numbers at face value? The tencent army, perhaps.

              Play your racist card somewhere else, troll.

              • Re: (Score:2)

                by AK Marc ( 707885 )

                China has well-known culture of being scam artists, fraudsters, and liars,[...]

                Play your racist card somewhere else.

                Seems I don't need to, your comments are self-evident.

  • Majority posts are COVID+ pandemic is inevitable. How many act first; brag later?

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