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Space

Scientists Stunned By 'City-Killer' Asteroid That Just Missed Earth On July 25 (msn.com) 252

A "city killer" asteroid whizzed past earth Thursday that "would have hit with over 30 times the energy of the atomic blast at Hiroshima," according to one astronomer professor.

Long-time Slashdot reader SonicSpike shared a Washington Post story that begins with a reaction from Alan Duffy, lead scientist at the Royal Institution of Australia: "I was stunned," he said. "This was a true shock."

This asteroid wasn't one that scientists had been tracking, and it had seemingly appeared from "out of nowhere," Michael Brown, a Melbourne-based observational astronomer, told The Washington Post. According to data from NASA, the craggy rock was large, an estimated 57 to 130 metres wide (187 to 427 feet), and moving fast along a path that brought it within about 73,000 kilometres (45,000 miles) of Earth. That's less than one-fifth of the distance to the moon and what Duffy considers "uncomfortably close...."

The asteroid's presence was discovered only earlier this week by separate astronomy teams in Brazil and the United States. Information about its size and path was announced just hours before it shot past Earth, Brown said. "It shook me out my morning complacency," he said. "It's probably the largest asteroid to pass this close to Earth in quite a number of years."

So how did the event almost go unnoticed?

Scientists have spotted 90% of asteroids that more than half a mile wide -- but this asteroid was smaller, faster, and had an unusual orbit.

"It should worry us all, quite frankly," one scientist told the Post. "It's not a Hollywood movie. It is a clear and present danger."
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Scientists Stunned By 'City-Killer' Asteroid That Just Missed Earth On July 25

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  • by cdsparrow ( 658739 ) on Sunday July 28, 2019 @12:37PM (#59001640)

    But why should people be worried? It's something that we can't stop, so why worry? Walking around scared of everything is good for getting clicks on a web page I guess, but not a great way to live life...

    • by SqueakyMouse ( 1003426 ) on Sunday July 28, 2019 @12:55PM (#59001742)

      But why should people be worried? It's something that we can't stop, so why worry? Walking around scared of everything is good for getting clicks on a web page I guess, but not a great way to live life...

      If it's a "city killer" and you're warned early enough can you not choose to be somewhere else when it lands?

      • When I was a kid I could see the Milky Way, Andromeda and meteor showers from my home near San Diego. No light pollution,no street lights, nearby cities were smaller then. Later I camped in the desert and the seeing was very good until the Cities of Yuma and El Centro grew. Then I began camping in the Sierras at 6,000 to 8,000 ft. elevation and the sky was alive again. I own a 4" telescope and giant binoculars that are useless now due to light and air pollution.
      • You likely already are somewhere else when it lands. Everyone likely is. Something like 99.6% of the earth's surface is not city. A good 75% is water and Antarctica and Greenland. Of the remaining 25%, massive amounts are pretty much empty. Northern Africa, Canada, Russia, Brazil, Australia. It's mostly the coasts that have people. The interiors of continents are mostly empty. Exceptions are Europe, India, and China.

        Seriously - the earth is rather empty: http://luminocity3d.org/WorldP... [luminocity3d.org]

        A "city killer" faces long odds in actually being able to live up to its name. Best odds are that it lands where nobody really notices.

        • by atheos ( 192468 )
          still a city killer, only it's vector is now a tsunami
          • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Sunday July 28, 2019 @02:10PM (#59002142)

            still a city killer, only it's vector is now a tsunami

            Energy of 2011 Fukushima quake and tsunami: 4e22 joules

            Energy of Hiroshima bomb (15 kT TNT): 6.3e13 joules

            Energy if this asteroid impacted (30 Hiroshimas): 2e15 joules

            So a very very very small tsunami.

          • Yeah, just like all of the nukes we set off in the Pacific wiped out Japan and the west coast of the US.....

          • It's why the Russians wanted to submerge vessels containing a few h-bombs and a crap ton of tritium off the coast. A LOT more damage. Why take out a city when you can take out a large portion of the coast? Cities, harbours, bridges and roads, mines, farmland, rail, can inflict more damage than Godzilla.
            • by necro81 ( 917438 )

              It's why the Russians wanted to submerge vessels containing a few h-bombs and a crap ton of tritium off the coast. A LOT more damage. Why take out a city when you can take out a large portion of the coast? Cities, harbours, bridges and roads, mines, farmland, rail, can inflict more damage than Godzilla.

              Aaaaand, if you make a bomb that big, you will also create Godzilla to clean up whatever's left. Brilliant!

        • Agreed, but it would help if we knew where it was going to hit so in case it did pose a threat people could evacuate. Also 30 times Hiroshima is not much anyways, Hiroshima was a pretty shitty nuclear bomb compared to the shit they've made since (and tested).
          • Hiroshima was a pretty shitty nuclear bomb compared to the shit they've made since (and tested).

            Yes, it was. It was the only nuclear bomb ever made that used U235 as the fissionable. There was about 10x as much fissionables in that bomb as there was in the Nagasaki bomb, much less in well-designed bombs later....

            • That's not true, there were numerous warheads tested by multiple nations that used U-235, U-235/Pu-239 mixtures, and even U-233. Little Boy was the only *gun-type* U-235 bomb ever built by the U.S., but implosion types using Uranium fissionables were built and tested by the U.S., the UK, and (probably) the Soviet Union. They just didn't bother with the gun-type because despite being easy to build, all these countries had already successfully designed or stolen working implosion designs which resulted in far

        • by Trogre ( 513942 )

          Greenland? Sounds like you've been suckered in by a Mercator-style projection of our fair globe. In actuality, Greenland fits inside Australia nearly three times. [thetruesize.com]

      • by Hodr ( 219920 )

        This is a super click-bait article. less than 200 feet across, and more than 40k miles away? That's not a close call. Hell, you could fit all but two of the planet in our solar system in that space.

    • Depending on the asteroid and the detection, we could evacuate a populated area likely to be wiped out. It's probably not worth it, but sometimes we go above and beyond to save people's lives.

      • by Dunbal ( 464142 ) *
        You won't know which area to evacuate before it's too late to do anything about it. Solar flare, gust of solar wind, and suddenly you find out it's landing on Boston instead of NY with 3 hours to spare.
        • Those large cities are basically death traps. You'll need a week leeway for a significant evacuation to take place. There will be looting. There will be fires. It will be mayhem.
          • Personally, I know that when that big godamn asteroid be coming, I need me a new 4k TV and some Jordans.
          • There will be looting.

            So what? If you couldn't take your shit with you when you evacuated it was going to get destroyed in the blast anyway, and the idiot looters will probably get destroyed along with all their loot.

            There will be fires.

            Before or after the blast? Just kidding, also so what?

            It will be mayhem.

            Depends on how much time there is to evacuate. Given enough time I think a reasonably orderly evacuation could be achieved.

          • There will be looting. There will be fires. It will be mayhem.

            Yeah, and that's before the asteroid.

        • Solar flare, gust of solar wind, and suddenly you find out it's landing on Boston instead of NY with 3 hours to spare.

          At one AU, a burst of particles from a flare could barely move a grain of sand. It will have no effect whatsoever on the path of an asteroid with a mass of several million tonnes.

    • Maybe carrying a concealed weapon would help.
    • If you see this coming a year out we can redirect it. This shows we need to spend more money on detection.
    • by hey! ( 33014 ) on Sunday July 28, 2019 @01:30PM (#59001906) Homepage Journal

      Well, an economist will tell you it's a matter of marginal benefits. A hundred years ago the marginal benefit of looking for civilization-destroying asteroids would have been zero, because there is literally nothing anyone could do about it. A hundred years from now, the marginal benefit would be greater because for many objects we'll be able to nudge them away.

      But what about right now? Well, we probably can't alter the course of a civilization-destroying asteroid, but we live in a world which produces a two- to three-fold surplus of food. The reason that people starve isn't that there's not enough food; people starve but because we can't be bothered to get the surplus food to them before it rots.

      Given a few years' warning, it is quite feasible to get most of the world's population through a year of greatly reduced food production. Even given a few weeks of warning could allow greater numbers of people to survive than being completely blindsided.

      • Well, we probably can't alter the course of a civilization-destroying asteroid

        WIth a few years' notice - depending on the mass and trajectory - and Elon's reusable rockets, we most certainly can.

    • In the future we may want to divert it to hit the earth and create a mini ice age. Either that or n old-fashioned nuclear war - but the meteor strike won't leave us dealing with as much radiation .
      • Either that or n old-fashioned nuclear war - but the meteor strike won't leave us dealing with as much radiation

        Maybe it's made out of uranite :)

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Exactly my first thought. It will be many decades and perhaps centuries before we can do anything about such a threat. "Worry" just makes the problem worse without adding anything on the plus-side. Maybe worry about global warming instead, were something can actually be done and which is pretty much a threat several orders or magnitude larger?

    • by k6mfw ( 1182893 )

      I second that. Not much can be done to deflect a killer asteroid, it is still a struggle to put a couple tons of mass into LEO. A battlestar spacecraft much more difficult if not impossible (i.e. been decades of attempting to put a man on the moon since 1972).

      "I've seen this movie before, it hits Paris."

  • by SqueakyMouse ( 1003426 ) on Sunday July 28, 2019 @12:48PM (#59001692)

    "It's not a Hollywood movie. It is a clear and present danger."

    He does realise that "clear and present danger" is a hollywood movie, right?

    • by fermion ( 181285 )
      And it is a hollywood movie, because only in hollywood movies is space so dense that you have scenes like out of Star Wars or the new Netflix series Another Life.

      This has become a new pet peeve of mine. Space is big, there is not, relatively speaking, a lot of stuff in it. A collision could happen, but it would be like setting two brownian motion cars out on opposite sides of the Gobi Desert and expected them to collide in your lifetime. Yes collisions do happen, and when several factors, size, distanc

  • it had seemingly appeared from "out of nowhere,"

    Improbable, but according to QM, only improbable.

    Interesting Revelation 8 class stuff, though.
    • by Dunbal ( 464142 ) *
      But slightly less improbable than being a giant strawberry shortcake instead of a rock.
      • by Empiric ( 675968 )
        As any hacker would know, if you designed in a back door to all of reality, you'd want to make it look unsuspicious when you use it.
  • Seriously, if there isn't anything you can do about asteroids, then don't worry. As ordinary folk we have more pressing concerns to focus on.
    • by Dunbal ( 464142 ) *
      Yeah I take Pliny the Younger's view on this sort of catastrophe: [On the eruption of Vesuvius] "I could boast that I never expressed any fear at this time, but I was only kept going by the consolation that the whole world was perishing with me."
    • by gtall ( 79522 )

      You mean like voting for representatives who will adequately fund asteroid detection and deflection as opposed to, I don't know, representatives honking on about going to Mars because the Moon was sooooo yesterday?

  • by Anonymous Coward

    Klandathu must pay.

  • by their own lack of statistical education.

    Yes, there are asteroids out there. Some dangerous ones will go undetected.

    If our current methods are inadequate for the level of risk we consider acceptable, then maybe we're doing something wrong and something should change. Maybe it's very serious and human civilization needs to have some dialogue about doing better managing that risk. But random things happening at random isn't news.

    • Maybe it's very serious and human civilization needs to have some dialogue about doing better managing that risk.

      There is literally nothing we can do about this.

      • One of the telescopes designs that detects near earth objects (liquid mirror telescope) can probably be scaled up to much higher sensitivity without serious engineering issues, and its ground-based. If we want to get up to five 9's reliability of forewarning, then its gonna take more lookin'.
  • by bobstreo ( 1320787 ) on Sunday July 28, 2019 @01:21PM (#59001866)

    the climate change an asteroid strike would cause, governments could do any/all of the following:

    1) Dig a hole in the ground and bury their heads.

    2) Create plans for sequestering asteroids with asteroid tax money.

    3) Figure out how to pass on lucrative asteroid contracts to friends and family.

    4) Pass laws to ignore asteroids.

    • by gtall ( 79522 )

      You forgot asking Jesus to stop pissing around and get here already. He's only 2000 years late from when he said he'd return. Surely the Prosperity Preachers could spend a Preaching Hour asking for Holy Intervention instead of asking for money for G-d's Altar...which sounds suspiciously like their house.

      • You forgot asking Jesus to stop pissing around and get here already. He's only 2000 years late from when he said he'd return. Surely the Prosperity Preachers could spend a Preaching Hour asking for Holy Intervention instead of asking for money for G-d's Altar...which sounds suspiciously like their house.

        I thought only a couple hundred thousand people would be "saved" in case of an impending End of the World scenario. At least only the most faithful.

        The alter is typically used as a source of funding to pay off incidental expenses like blackmail from male and female "professionals" and court "settlements" with no conviction for wrongdoing. Oh and maybe a nice new private jet.

    • by djinn6 ( 1868030 )

      Just pass a law to make asteroid impacts illegal. That'll stop them.

  • “We asteroid-hunting scientists obviously need increased levels of funding!”

  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • It's coming right for us!!

    Be quiet! Don't you have other English sentences to practice with??

  • by tomhath ( 637240 ) on Sunday July 28, 2019 @01:33PM (#59001930)

    Scientists have spotted 90% of asteroids that more than half a mile wide...

    They know 90% of the known asteroids? Okay.

    • Re:How do they know? (Score:5, Informative)

      by careysub ( 976506 ) on Sunday July 28, 2019 @02:17PM (#59002196)

      They know 100% of the known asteroids. Knowing how your detection systems work in detail, and using statistics (which can also be used independently of modeling the detection process physically) allows you to calculate how many you have missed.

      Statistics is not magic, witchcraft or guessing.

  • Thanks to Trump's Space Force All is well. Praise Dog Vote Trump!
  • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Sunday July 28, 2019 @02:34PM (#59002258)

    According to data from NASA, the craggy rock was large, an estimated 57 to 130 metres wide (187 to 427 feet)

    That would make it

    Given the frequency with which the ~Tunguska sized events occur (about one every few hundred years), it's pretty safe to say there are many of these out there, and probably several which have had near-misses in the last decade which we never even detected. (The moon's orbit is about 385,000 km. The Earth's radius is about 3960 km. So a "near miss" inside the moon's orbit represents a target circle roughly 10,000 times larger in cross-sectional area than the Earth.)

    As for the odds of a "city-killer" asteroid actually hitting the city, cities cover less than 2% of the Earth's land area [aaas.org]. or roughly 0.5% of the Earth's total surface area. So about a 1 in 200 chance that a "city-killer" asteroid would actually hit a city if it did make landfall. If you expect one of these to hit the Earth every 200 years, then it'll be an average of 40,000 years between cities being wiped out by a meteor. Factor in the odds of me actually being in that one ill-fated city the day of the impact, and I have a hard time getting worried over something like this.

    • Grr, Google reported Earth's radius in miles instead of km. It's a 3660x bigger target circle, not 10,000.
  • More people have been killed by rogue meteorites and asteroids than by the recreational use of multirotor drones -- a little acknowledged fact.

    Yet every day, the media publishes hyped up predictions of death and destruction that will be caused when drones bring down airliners.

    Yet the death toll remains steadfastly at a big fat ZERO.

    So why aren't we equally as concerned and scared of the much bigger (and proven) risk from asteriods and meteorites?

    Makes no sense, does it?

  • Two special-purpose observatories in Hawaii play a vital role in detecting Earth-approaching objects: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

    One of the ATLAS instruments has been blocked off to observers for the last two weeks because it is located on the mountain where protesters are trying to prevent construction of the newest observatory to be permitted on the astronomy reservation site. The protesters are preventing use of the existing observatories as a bargaining chip to get their way on the new project.

    Tim

  • Scientists have spotted 90% of asteroids that more than half a mile wide Can they really be sure about that? Can you know that things you haven't found make up 10% of their class, if you haven't found them?

    Obviously these "smaller, faster" asteroids pose a serious threat, as they are much harder to detect and would be more troublesome to react to if only spotted very late on approach. We'll clearly want to continue to improve our detection capabilities and catalog as many objects as possible, though we ne
    • If someone asks you how many asteroids of size X there are in solar system you can do a pretty good estimate without counting them all or even knowing where most of them are, that's the power of statistical analysis for you. It works for more than spacerocks too, you could for example ask how many rubber ducks there are in bathrooms around the world, you don't have to count them all to figure out a reasonably accurate answer.
  • That's what I saw on Thursday night with my friends. We were outside having a break from a jam and looking at the stars on the blackness when the thing cut through the sky, it was really bright and big too.

    Our other friends were turned the other way and we both went "whoooooooaaaaa" when we saw the thing. It took about 2 seconds to pass and it was much lower than a normal "shooting star".

  • "Scientists have spotted 90% of asteroids that more than half a mile wide "

    If they haven't spotted 10%, how do they know? If you haven't spotted something, how can you generate a percentage of an unknown total???

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