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ISS NASA Space The Military

Debris From India's Anti-Satellite Test Poses Threat To ISS, Says NASA (npr.org) 217

Posted by BeauHD from the space-junk dept.
When India blew apart one of its satellites orbiting Earth last week, it created hundreds of pieces of orbital debris, and some of those pieces are large enough and high enough to pose a potential threat to the International Space Station, NASA says. "That is a terrible, terrible thing to create an event that sends debris in an apogee that goes above the International Space Station," NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine said, referring to the debris' highest point in orbit. "And that kind of activity is not compatible with the future of human space flight that we need to see happen." NPR reports: In calculating the Indian test's potential impact last week, he said NASA determined that the risk of small debris hitting the space station was increased by 44 percent over a period of 10 days. "It's unacceptable, and NASA needs to be very clear about what its impact to us is," Bridenstine said, discussing space debris and India's anti-satellite test at a town hall event Monday.

As he spoke about the heightened risk, the NASA administrator also emphasized that both the space station and the astronauts aboard it are safe. The station can be maneuvered out of harm's way if needed, he added. But another danger, he said, is that "when one country does it, then other countries feel like they have to do it, as well." "The good thing is, it's low enough in Earth orbit that over time, this will all dissipate," Bridenstine said on Monday. Those pieces are expected to burn up as they re-enter Earth's atmosphere. India's intercept of its own satellite created 400 pieces of orbital debris, Bridenstine said. "What we are tracking right now -- objects big enough to track, we're talking about 10 centimeters [4 inches] or bigger -- about 60 pieces have been tracked," he said. "Of those 60, we know that 24 of them are going above the apogee of the International Space Station."
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Debris From India's Anti-Satellite Test Poses Threat To ISS, Says NASA More

Debris From India's Anti-Satellite Test Poses Threat To ISS, Says NASA

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  • India It would seem never saw the movie gravity (Score:1, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward

    Perhaps it should be made compulsory for anyone working in the space sector.

  • why am i not surprised (Score:5, Insightful)

    by yanyan ( 302849 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @05:21AM (#58376884)

    The Indians have a problem (putting it extremely lightly) with pollution, garbage, littering, and all sorts of fun, unsanitary stuff on their streets and even in their most holy river -- in their own country. Did anyone think they'd actually respect the rest of the planet? Or even space?

    • Re: (Score:1, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward

      > The Indians have a problem (putting it extremely lightly) with pollution, garbage, littering [...]

      If it only were the Indians. All of us have a problem in that, and we in the industrialized nations have a headstart of 50-100 years. And we are running into problems because of that.

      The worst criminals are those in denial. C'mon: if the Koch brothers keep paying people to say "oh, CO2 and warming are not a thing", and they sell coal... they should go to jail.

      That bit of space debris pales in comparison. I

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward

        All of us have a problem in that, and we in the industrialized nations have a headstart of 50-100 years.

        Nonsense. Many industrialized nations have done significant cleanup since the turn of the century. Also, many of those nations have sewage waste treatment plants and an organization of pipe systems to bring sewage to those facilities. India doesn't - most raw sewage ends up untreated in the ditches of their streets and rivers.

        The worst criminals are those in denial. C'mon: if the Koch brothers keep paying people to say "oh, CO2 and warming are not a thing", and they sell coal... they should go to jail

        Amusingly, you're shoving out as much nonsense propaganda as they do.

        That bit of space debris pales in comparison. It is as if someone points at a stain on the wall while rats are all over the floor (not saying that it is a good idea, tho).

        Sorry, your metaphor doesn't really apply here. Please try again, thank you.

        • Re: (Score:1)

          by Anonymous Coward

          > Nonsense. Many industrialized nations have done significant cleanup since the turn of the century. ...which means exporting their "problematic" garbage to Chia, Indonesia and a couple of African states.

          You have no clue.

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion

    • Re:why am i not surprised (Score:5, Insightful)

      by MrKaos ( 858439 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @09:06AM (#58377730) Journal

      I was in an Indian city some time ago on a work thing. I thought it would be a good opportunity to see what was going on there if this is where all the IT work was going. I don't feel so threatened anymore, having seen the infrastructure.

      I was driven around looking at the barely controlled chaos that the country was when I saw a man walking across the bridge we'd stopped on. With obvious intentional momentum he swing a bag of garbage from the side of his body opposite the side of the bridge high over head in a well practiced arc right into the river.

      Later, in a large group of Indian fellas (I had told the muslim fellow that as guest was god he must have beer with us all - which was a funny pickle to put him in) they asked me what I thought best and worst about India.

      I told them I thought their culture was very colorful and beautiful and they seem much more family oriented there. I told them they have all this fantastic red soil that it looks like anything will grow in. I also told them I liked the ass washing devices that all the toilets had to which they had a merry chuckle.

      I remembered the man on the bridge when I told them that the worst thing about India is that the people don't seem to care about what they have been blessed with and treat the place like shit.

      My observation about both India and China is they seem determined to make the same mistakes that the west has already made instead of learning from them.

    • It's kind of hard to give India much of a reprimand over some of that, when we're not much better. Someone from San Francisco made a poop map [sfgate.com] where people could report all of the human shit on the streets. India at least has some people who seem to care about fixing those problems [youtube.com] whereas we in the U.S. seem content with letting the problems we have get worse or fighting against people trying to help solve them [latimes.com].

  • 44% larger risk (Score:5, Insightful)

    by CrimsonAvenger ( 580665 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @05:22AM (#58376886)

    44% larger is the number I've been seeing for the extra risk.

    So, what's the baseline risk? 0.01% chance of being hit any given year? 44% larger then becomes 0.0144% chance of being hit with the debris of that satellite. Hardly a significant risk, really....

    • If the impact risk was really significant, wouldn't they would send up Space Force to clean up the mess?

      I mean, Space Force is a thing now, right? Trump announced it almost a year ago, so they must have their own fleet of big beautiful space ships by now with lasers and other cool junk cleaning junk on them.

      • Re:44% larger risk (Score:4, Funny)

        by Gilgaron ( 575091 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @07:47AM (#58377328)
        Well yes but they're busy building a wall between Earth and Mars.

      • The United States Space Force is currently in the proposal stage, waiting on approval by Congress. If approved it will be implemented beginning in 2020, with full capability established by 2024.

        As of 2019 only one nation has an operational Space Force: the People's Republic of China.

        The more you know!

        • lolwut?

          I'm wondering if you have a definition of "Space Force" that isn't shared by... anyone else.
          The US has a "Space Force". The proposal is to turn it into its own branch. We had an air force before the U.S. Air Force was an independent branch of the military as well.
          The Russian Federation does as well. And the French. And the Brits. And the Indians.

          Or did you really think the nuclear powers of the world were sitting here while only China had a space military command?

          The more you know, amirite???

          • I'm wondering if you have a definition of "Space Force" that isn't shared by... anyone else.

            https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wik... [wikipedia.org]

            The more you know, amirite???

            Yw!

            • Wondering if you read that article.

              Current space forces and military space commands:
              China:
              +++ People's Liberation Army Strategic Support Force
              France:
              +++ Joint Space Command
              India:
              +++ Integrated Space Cell
              Russia:
              +++ Russian Aerospace Forces
              ++++++ Russian Space Forces
              United Kingdom:
              +++ Royal Air Force
              ++++++ No. 11 Group RAF
              United States:
              +++ United States Air Force
              ++++++ U.S. Air Force Space Command

              Thanks? lol.

              • Wondering if you know what the word "and" means.

                • Oh-I get it. You think a "Space Force" and a Space Command are different. I gotcha. You're imagining little luke skywalkers flying around in X-Wings and shit. That's awesome. Keep drinking that Trump-aid, chief.

                  • I guess that's a "no", then.

                    • Are you really so fucking stupid as to require me to spell this out for you, or are you deflecting because you've begun to smell a hint of the mistake you've made?

                      Assuming a modicum from intelligence for you is a stretch, I'll admit, but I had hoped for better than your normal ignorant opinions fired off in the guise of fact.
                      A "Space Force" and a "Space Command" are the same thing. China doesn't even have an independent Space Command. It's part of the PLA's Strategic Forces, which is responsible for elec

      • Re: (Score:3)

        by ghoul ( 157158 )

        Join the SPACE FORCE, travel to an EXOTIC LOCATION, pick up trash!!!!

        I can just see the recruitment poster.

    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Nasa tracks space debris so they can steer clear of it; largest they can currently track is 4cm diameter objects.

      A 4cm diameter object has double the diameter and, if made of lead, 4-8 times the volume of a 12 gauge shotgun slug and likely around the total mass of a 50BMG bullet.

      To reach orbit one must achieve a velocity of around 25000 feet per second; a 50BMG round travels at around this speed.

      If the object is travelling in a transverse or opposing vector (so not in the same direction of the craft but eit

      • Re:44% larger risk (Score:4, Interesting)

        by rmdingler ( 1955220 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @07:09AM (#58377200) Journal

        Nasa tracks space debris so they can steer clear of it; largest they can currently track is 4cm diameter objects.

        Interesting post, but I think you meant smallest they can currently track is 4cm diameter objects. Your results may vary depending on who is estimating the numbers, but there are conservatively tens of thousands of objects larger than 10cm, hundreds of thousands between 1-10cm, and 100 million+ objects

        Regarding India, they just want a seat at the table when the power players discuss satellite defense and weaponry. This is a classic tragedy of the commons.

        • You have to also consider that objects 2-4cm, which they can't track, can have significantly different trajectories because their smaller mass, they likely have much higher velocities from the explosion.

        • Re:44% larger risk (Score:5, Informative)

          by White Yeti ( 927387 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @08:04AM (#58377404) Homepage Journal
          Yes, lots of politics (domestic and international) behind this test.

          One correction to the GP: NASA doesn't track the objects in orbit. CSpOC [stratcom.mil] takes care of the tracking and distribution [space-track.org] of data. NASA does statistical sampling and modeling of the environment [nasa.gov], as well as impact testing [nasa.gov] and evaluation of shielding designs. Also, NASA scientists typically use metric (though the hardware people often still use inch-pound-second).

      • To reach orbit one must achieve a velocity of around 25000 feet per second; a 50BMG round travels at around this speed.

        Actually that's a little over 8 times faster than the muzzle velocity of a 50BMG. 2700 to 3000 ft/sec is the typical velocity for a 50. 25k ft/sec is 3X what the Navy's railgun muzzle velocity is. So it's quite a bit faster.

      • To reach orbit one must achieve a velocity of around 25000 feet per second; a 50BMG round travels at around this speed.

        No it does not. 50 BMG has a muzzle velocity closer to 2500 feet per second. You are an entire order of magnitude off. 50 BMG is fast but its not at orbital velocity.

  • It was a message (Score:5, Interesting)

    by DNS-and-BIND ( 461968 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @05:26AM (#58376890) Homepage
    India sent a message loud and clear: we will do this, and we don't care if it causes space junk. I hope everyone got the message. The US State Department is very big on "sending messages" with its actions. Let's see how they like being on the receiving end for once. I think it'll be very educational for them to attend another country's lesson instead of being the one dishing it out.

    • Re:It was a message (Score:5, Informative)

      by oic0 ( 1864384 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @06:24AM (#58377032)
      "international" space station. Not US space station. They didn't shit in our pool, they shit in the community pool.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by Kjella ( 173770 )

        After the US, Soviet and China shit in it first. Whenever a big nation goes "We've already have weapons with that capability, but you shouldn't have it." they're not exactly coming from neutral ground. The US is very often trying to freeze the status quo when it's to the American advantage, while acting oblivious to the fact that they're asking to carve permanent differences in stone. Take for example CO2 emissions [wikimedia.org], the US has one of the highest rates per capita in the world but the American focus has been

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by PPH ( 736903 )

          But if you're China or India you look at that graph and think fuck that, why should I have to pollute less than an American?

          Because it's in their best interest to adopt the state of the art in energy production and consumption. Which, as a by-product, pollutes less. Sure, America went through the big-ass cars with tail fins era. But everyone doesn't have to follow that same path.

      • And no one gets to shit in the community pool other than the 3 members who started the community dammit!

    • Re: It was a message (Score:5, Insightful)

      by TigerPlish ( 174064 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @06:48AM (#58377112)

      Much hatred, such wow.

      Listen, my anti-American friend, we learned those lessons long ago, which is why we are the way we are now. We went to school with the natives, the English, the Germans (twice in 25 years), the Soviets, and more. What we learned is that no one is to be trusted, to do the other guy in before he does you. You know, like when you discover as you leave childhood or maybe even earlier that the world is a nasty angry place full of people who wish you harm or take what you have.

      So know India has a satellite killer. Message received, you are now worthy of increased scrutiny and intel gathering. As if having nukes didn't already put them on out to-watch list.

      But what their littering of space really shows is that still have that retarded lack of attention to detail that also plagues their software. That shit-for-brains "oh it's good enough don't worry about it" attitude that kills in aerospace.

      That's why their shit will always be shit. Not because they're Indians, but because they don't strive for perfection. In some fields perfection and precision are must-haves.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Kokuyo ( 549451 )

        Can't even say I disagree with you. The only tragedy here is that you have perfected this attitude both towards to outside and inside... or do you really have the feeling that you are still one united nation under the same flag?

        • Re: It was a message (Score:4, Interesting)

          by TigerPlish ( 174064 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @09:21AM (#58377822)

          or do you really have the feeling that you are still one united nation under the same flag?

          Nope, we're divided, and hard. I think it was Vietnam that did the initial seismic split and it's only gotten worse. My sig is an oblique reference to that era. I came up with it after noticing that all our present ills can be traced mostly to that year, or more generally the decade of 1965 - 1975.

          People on all sides - left, right, up, down - and all permutations that encourage widening this divide are the real traitors... although I will concede the lies of the Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon admins over Vietnam are what did it. They threw the first punch.

          The traitors are those who drive the wedges that have split us, and the criminals are those who profit from it. On all sides. Am I being clear? I detest the right and the left, although I consider the left more dangerous to our country because they seek to dismantle what little remains of it. As the saying goes, "The road to hell is paved with good intentions." In their misguided effort to protect the environment and "raise all boats" they'll drown us all.

          Fight the split, people. Get rid of the traitors and criminals who split us and profit from it. No matter what party they're in. Do it now, or watch our country finally succumb to its wounds and end up like All The Rest.

          • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

            by Anonymous Coward

            I think that you need to go further back to the New Deal under FDR, the resulting 80% marginal income tax rates for the 1% and their creation of organizations and think tanks (John Birch Society, Heritage Foundation, etc...) to push for deregulation and the shifting of tax burden from the wealthy to the middle class and poor.

            The constant lies and propaganda which use emotions to get people to vote against their own best interests have damaged the psyche of the entire country.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by ghoul ( 157158 )

        Yeah right. The Indians got their Mars mission to work on the first go. Lets not talk about how many times NASA screwed up before getting it right. Attention to the important details is what Indians excel at as well as knowing which details are the important ones.

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • This is bullshit. If it would be merely or even mostly just authoritarianism then they wouldn't try take your private property nor impose their morality on you. They would leave you mostly alone if you don't challenge the oligarchy, but alas that is not what happend.

    • Then, as such, we can take it as an act of war, and to tell the truth, I would agree. It is a real threat that must be dealt with.

  • 44% increase from nothing (Score:4, Interesting)

    by r2kordmaa ( 1163933 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @05:59AM (#58376968)
    Normal 10 day risk of ISS getting hit can't be very significant to begin with, so does 44% increase from nothing really amount to significant risk?

    And does anyone have a public list of TLEs for the debris cloud? Or at least a list of apogees and perigees?

  • The solution is to scale down. OK, so they shot up a missile the blew up a satellite and made a bunch of junk. So now, send up a bunch of smaller missiles to blow up the bits of junk. Then send a bigger batch of smaller still missiles to blow up the now smaller junk. Rinse repeat until no problem.

  • Wait for call centres! (Score:4, Funny)

    by TJHook3r ( 4699685 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @07:42AM (#58377302)
    Can just imagine NASA receiving a call from Bangalore after the ISS gets hit... 'hello, we understand you have been in an accident that was not your fault?'

  • Serious-minded Action (Score:5, Interesting)

    by necro81 ( 917438 ) on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @07:47AM (#58377324) Journal
    Maybe I am a bit naive to even suggest this, but it seems to me that now would be an appropriate time for the nations of the world to enter into a treaty specifically designed to avoid one-or-more jackasses from ruining space access for the entire human race. I would call it the Kessler Avoidance Treaty (KAT).

    It is, generally, a set of rules to avoid a tragedy of the (space) commons - a general agreement not to shit all over the near-Earth environment (100 km to, say, 600 km). Among its provisions would be:
    * A blanket ban on anti-satellite missiles or other ways of destroying satellites that create debris clouds. This includes not only the deployment of such weapons, but also their development and testing.
    * Require whoever launches a rocket to ensure that all orbital-velocity, non-payload masses (e.g., upper stages, payload fairings, etc.) have a built in method to guarantee de-orbiting within, say, three months. (I suppose parking in a higher orbit, like 5000 km, would also be acceptable.)
    * Active payloads (i.e., satellites) must have a documented plan for end-of-life that ensures de-orbiting within, say, 1 year after end-of-service.
    * A service fee attached to all orbital launches (including those that pass through near-Earth to other orbits, like geosynchronous) to fund the development and eventual deployment of measures to remove debris and other hazards from the near-Earth environment. This could be lasers, satellites that tether to and de-orbit other satellites, and who knows what else. The service fee would be based on rocket gross weight at liftoff (although probably on a logarithmic, rather than linear scale).
    * The development of international design standards for satellite manufacturers and launch providers to reduce small fragmentary debris: paint chips, frangible bolts, etc.)

    Yup, this will make space launches a bit more expensive: it will slightly lower the payload that a particular rocket can deliver. I call that chump change compared to the catastrophic cost of a full-blown Kessler syndrome, which would wipe out >$100B of already-launched assets, degrade the $Trillions of annual economic activity that utilizes space services, endanger the lives of humans in space, and render access-to-space difficult or impossible for a generation.

    There is plenty of precedent for humans creating and enforcing treaties against generally-bad behavior. The treaties banning atmospheric nuclear weapons tests are one good example. The Montreal Protocol for eliminating CFCs is another. These are imperfect measures, certainly, and not universal ratified. But they have gotten most of the major players on the same page, and drastically reduced the harm that could otherwise have happened. It also provides a moral framework for punishing non-ratifiers.

    Right now is the best time to implement this kind of treaty. (Well, really, 5-10 years ago.) Humanity is drastically lowering the barriers to accessing space, and so we're on the cusp of a huge surge of launches. We ought to agree upon the rules now before there are 100 new players. At the same time, we are ever-more dependent on using orbiting satellites for all manner of daily activities, and there are untold riches still to be reaped.

    I am, however, dreadfully pessimistic about the chances of such a treaty coming about under (present) US leadership. We have the most to gain and the most to lose. It would also be a chance to reassert some global leadership against strategic rivals such as China and Russia. But our present executive demonstrates no particular strategic thinking, and I'm sure this kind of topic and its rational solution aren't on his radar.

    • Re:Serious-minded Action (Score:4, Insightful)

      by pnutjam ( 523990 ) <slashdotNO@SPAMborowicz.org> on Wednesday April 03, 2019 @10:01AM (#58378064) Homepage Journal
      What your proposing is exactly why India did this. They see the blanket ban coming and want to ensure they get a seat at the table of have's instead of being pushed into the have-not's and can't ever have pile.

    • The fundamental problem why people do this is precisely because they see history as a list of *The USA / (insert other questionable country here) did it then banned it for everyone else* achievements.

    • ....I am, however, dreadfully pessimistic about the chances of such a treaty coming about under (present) US leadership. We have the most to gain and the most to lose. It would also be a chance to reassert some global leadership against strategic rivals such as China and Russia. But our present executive demonstrates no particular strategic thinking, and I'm sure this kind of topic and its rational solution aren't on his radar.

      You were doing so well too. Great post until the end where you lost focus and dropped the ball. If you want to get anything large scale done you have to learn to work with people you actually don't like. This means not insulting them openly. The idea of such a ban is still great and needed, just learn to get along with others.

  • The endangered American IT professional. The best in the world. But India is cheaper!!!

  • I wish I could say I'm surprised. India is a country where even in major cities you can see people literally squat and shit in the street. It isn't hard to understand why they have no problem with metaphorically taking a dump right on the doorstep of humanity's gateway to space.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by ghoul ( 157158 )

      I have only seen Human shit on the street in San Jose and San Francisco. Never in India. Cow shit - yes. Human shit no.

      • Maybe you haven't been looking.

        "My feet were prepared for what lay ahead. I was not. I did not expect to see people cleaning human waste from the roads right in the heart of Mumbai, a booming financial capital and the face of modern India."

        https://www.cnn.com/2014/10/02/world/asia/india-waste-scavengers/index.html

        https://www.bbc.com/news/health-33980904

  • With all the stupid shit my country has been doing in the commons lately, I'm just glad that it's somebody else's turn to be "that guy"--even if it's for just a minute.

    Not posting AC. I'll own it. Not that it'll help.

  • If their stupid stunt ends up destroying the ISS and / or requires its abandonment due to their incompetence.

  • NORAD can't tell you how small an object they can actually track, or how many of them. What they have actually disclosed is probably only the tip of the iceberg.

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