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Ask Slashdot: Why Are Scientists Constantly Surprised By What They Discover? 254

Slashdot reader dryriver asks about "the sheer number of times scientists consider something to be 'scientifically impossible', are badly disproven by some kind of new finding or discovery a few years later, and then express 'surprise' that 'X is indeed possible'." If you do a Google News search for the keywords "scientists were surprised" or similar, a huge number of science-related news articles contains a passage about "scientists being surprised" by what they discovered. There seems to be a great disparity between the mindset of inventors -- who always try to MAKE new things become possible -- and the mindset of many scientists, who seem unable or unwilling to consider that what "science holds to be true today" may not turn out to be quite so true tomorrow.

Here's the question: Why do many scientists, having knowledge of the fact that surprises in science happen all the time, continually express "surprise" when they find something unusual? If surprises in scientific research are so common, why are scientists still "surprised" by "surprise findings"?

"The surprising stuff is what we hear about, and there has to be some reason why it is surprising," argues gurps_npc in response to the original submission. "A common answer is that current state of science thinks the surprising stuff was impossible."

"The whole premise is flawed," counters long-time reader Martin+S. "Natural skepticism is an essential component of science." And long-time reader UnknownSoldier supplies a one-word answer: "Ego."

But how would you answer the question? Share your best thoughts in the comments. Why are scientists constantly surprised by what they discover?
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Ask Slashdot: Why Are Scientists Constantly Surprised By What They Discover?

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  • by invalid_user ( 253723 ) on Sunday January 20, 2019 @06:42AM (#57990676)

    In many scientific fields, especially mathematics (which is of course not technically a science but that's not the point here so let's not argue about that), results are often not interesting unless they are "surprising". Hence the tendency to exxegerate things.

    There are also the occasions when scientists are pessimistic about certain results, and when these turned out well, they become pleasantly surprised.

    So are scientists lying when they say they are surprised? No, they are indeed surprised. However, the level of surprise is low. It's a figure of speech.

    For us to be alarmed, we would have to be "shocked" and "in disbelief".

    • by Potor ( 658520 )

      I wonder if what you say accounts for all cases. To me there are two main types of scientists, which of course may overlap. There are the theoreticians, and the experimentalists. I’ll stick to historical figures only because their examples are most well-known.

      Let’s take Copernicus as an example of the first. He did not discover anything, but was certain that his explanation of the revolution of the heavenly orbs was correct. So his surprise, if he had any, would be that people could possibly ho

      • by HiThere ( 15173 )

        Well, in the case of Copernicus he was so "surprised" at the resistance to his results that he arranged to have the published after he was safely dead.

        • by epine ( 68316 )

          Well, in the case of Copernicus he was so "surprised" at the resistance to his results that he arranged to have the published after he was safely dead.

          Formal publication is not the only viable straw poll.

          Nothing stiffens your posthumous resolve like a bracing cold shoulder from the progressive, insider sect in response to your tentative feelers.

    • How many papers have you published?

    • by gtall ( 79522 )

      In an addendum to that, if scientists never tested stuff they didn't already know the answer, there would be no surprises. This doesn't quite get to the point however. In doing science, we work from existing theories most of the time. If the theories were complete, there would be no surprises. We know they aren't complete, but they do indicate somethings should be so. Scientists are looking at the things that should be so. They are pleasantly surprised if it turns out not to be so, but at a mild level of su

      • by dryeo ( 100693 )

        Occasionally there are big surprises. The speed of light being a constant is one example. Unexpected, first reaction is the measuring device is wrong, leading to remeasuring and even more accurate instruments to measure. Then acceptance and the need to have new theories.

  • Being thorough on a subject makes you preoccupied. Especially if you're smart that way. Being thorough on the scientific method makes you discover things and are truly proven to be new. Which makes details you had the wrong assumptions about ever more surprising.

    Also: calling a discovery surprising makes a report about it more interesting.

  • by skoskav ( 1551805 ) on Sunday January 20, 2019 @06:54AM (#57990702)
    This is a common joke in the skeptical community. To quote [theness.com] Steven Novella, paraphrasing Christopher Hitchens:

    Journalists tend to have a limited pallet of story themes from which they choose, and then they conform the story to the chosen theme. Stories always need to be about something, such as corporate greed or government malfeasance, so that is the story that is told – regardless of the pesky facts.

    Bad science journalism works that way also. That is why we can joke about common cliches, such as “Missing Link Discovered,” “Scientists Baffled,” and “It turns out everything we thought we knew was wrong.”

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward

      For further details on bad journalism, read http://phdcomics.com/comics/archive.php?comicid=1174

    • by Kjella ( 173770 )

      While that's true, there's a difference between the science community and individual scientists. As humans we tend to get stuck in our ways, you can tell how many great changes are not truly over until that generation is dead and buried. If you're an expert it's even harder to get over the fact that your expertise is wrong, we have our known unknowns but many things we think we've figured out completely. So while journalists obviously pick the juiciest headlines, I'm not surprised there are scientists that

      • As humans we tend to get stuck in our ways, you can tell how many great changes are not truly over until that generation is dead and buried.

        This, too, is largely a myth that should be carefully examined.

        Suppose string theory hadn't been a crock for working physicists (as opposed to chalk artists). What would Richard Feynman have done next?

        First of all, mathematics is notoriously a young man's game (as far ahead of her times as Ada Lovelace managed to be, she was no Srinivasa Ramanujan).

        I've been trying to m

    • Also there is a tendency of journalism to report on the surprise of the general public when the scientists had an expectation of the event. For example, the Higgs boson particle was found by CERN but it was predicted more than 50 years ago.
      • Also there is a tendency of journalism to report on the surprise of the general public when the scientists had an expectation of the event. For example, the Higgs boson particle was found by CERN but it was predicted more than 50 years ago.

        And Scientists are surprised, shocked, and baffled that it took so long.

        • ...and what they did next will amaze you!
          • ...and what they did next will amaze you!

            Its all the fault of a housewife in Pennsylvania, who has the insurance companies running scared.

        • Not even that. Scientists have long known the difficulty of detecting such a heavy particle. The wait was all about building an accelerator big enough and sensors fast enough to detect it.
    • OTOH "it turns out everything we thought we knew was wrong" would appear to be true of science reporters even after they read the paper. Either that, or the critical concept "thinking" was not actually present.

      The true story is "Scientists explained an interesting phenomenon in greater detail than before. They seemed excited about this. However, I failed to grasp the essence of what was important about it".

  • Clarke's First Law (Score:5, Interesting)

    by mentil ( 1748130 ) on Sunday January 20, 2019 @06:59AM (#57990734)

    "When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong." - Arthur C. Clarke's first law

    • And to this :

      the sheer number of times scientists consider something to be 'scientifically impossible',

      They are pretty damn rare, and often taken out of context (like the quote about airplane not being possible - it was about directed flight within the known engineering - dumb but not as dumb as saying flight in general was impossible - just look at birds). I have not seen many of them , usually it is down to claim not being shored up by evidence, but when that DO happens much later to have evidence, then

  • by The Real Dr John ( 716876 ) on Sunday January 20, 2019 @07:03AM (#57990750) Homepage

    As a neuroscientist I can tell you why many scientists in the life sciences are surprised by findings: shocker! It's because living systems are so absurdly complicated. Just take a look at what is known currently for any major biochemical pathway, or gene regulation, or mitochondrial metabolism, or protein trafficking in the cell. The complexity is mind boggling. Anyone who thinks you can wade into that abyss of unknowns with certainty hasn't done any biological research.

  • by Sique ( 173459 ) on Sunday January 20, 2019 @07:19AM (#57990806) Homepage
    All the expected results don't stir so much attention, as they were expected anyway. But as we know, the most exciting phrase in Science is not "Heureka!", it's "Well, that's odd." (often attributed to Isaac Asimov).

    Things going according to plan don't make for exciting news. Discoveries that were planned for don't make for exciting news. Only the unexpected gets attention. If you find something you were expecting anyway, then there is nothing to be excited about.

    You could even cite Claude Shannon: Information is the inverse of probability. If the Improbable happens, you get much more information than from an event highly probable. Thus yes, important discoveries are often not expected.

  • Scientists are not surprised by nearly everything they see when they run an experiment. There are many many articles about how this or that confirms such and such earlier understanding. That is BORING! What is exciting is when they see something that does not behave they way they expect. When they are SURPRISED by the result of the experiment there is something new to discover! It may be only that the experiment was flawed in some way or that there really is something going on. That is exciting! Every scien
    • What is exciting is when they see something that does not behave they way they expect. When they are SURPRISED by the result of the experiment there is something new to discover!

      This is true. I think that the fundamental divide between scientists and the rest of the world is that the "normal person" reads how "Scienitists are Surprised By..! stories thinks that the scientists are upset. This is because so many "normal people" demand surety in their lives. Religion, some of the weirder economic theories, politics. Those things are difficult to change because even when obviously wrong, they don't want that surprise.

      Scientists on the other hand, love surprises. The individual scient

  • But how would you answer the question? Share your best thoughts in the comments. Why are scientists constantly surprised by what they discover?

    Why would you care what we think? If you were a scientist you'd run a goddamn experiment and find the actual answer.

  • Because you're comparing a tiny percentage of apocryphal, paraphrased quotes using loose fluffy editorial subjective language to describe an objective process

    Was this originally posted in the 'random dumb questions people ask at parties' topic ?

  • by Mal-2 ( 675116 ) on Sunday January 20, 2019 @07:39AM (#57990874) Homepage Journal

    The universe is under no obligation to make sense to primates that evolved for life on the savannahs of Africa.
    It's rather amazing that natural laws are amenable to logic, mathematics, and thought experiments, and that scientists so often guess right.
    In other words, this is the wrong question. The question should be "Why is the natural world predictable in such detail, and why are we getting it right more often than not?"

  • Different meaning (Score:5, Interesting)

    by pz ( 113803 ) on Sunday January 20, 2019 @07:40AM (#57990878) Journal

    Scientists aren't surprised. That's just the language that is used to describe findings that don't match up with existing dogma.

    As another poster suggested, the natural world is exceedingly complex. Physics aside, our models of it tend to be simple. Simple models perforce do not capture complexity, and thus, are often wrong when you test them beyond their domain.

    If you, as a scientist, aren't constantly stumbling across unexpected results (which are written as surprises, that term has a different meaning in scientific papers than in the general public), then you aren't exploring new areas. As a scientist, you work by taking an existing model or hypothesis, and pushing it to its limits, finding where it breaks down, and creating a new, better model that accommodates a wider area. There are precious few cases where such models are sufficiently complete that we have run out of things to test ... low-energy fundamental particle physics seems to be the best-known one. In biology, which is the field I work in, we aren't even remotely close.

    Take paleontology, for instance. One a seemingly monthly basis, new dinosaur species are being discovered, or old bones are realized to have been put together wrong, or new details about extinctions have been discovered. For that field, much of the surprise comes from additional data sources -- our older, simpler models were based on less data, and with additional information, better models can be built. Dinosaurs, when I was a kid, were thought to all be lizard-like in appearance. Recent discoveries of exceedingly well-preserved specimens suggest many of them had feathers, and were colored.

    Take planetary sciences / cosmology. We have discovered a vast trove of objects in our solar system, thanks to new streams of data. We have discovered large numbers of planets beyond our solar system, also thanks to new streams of data. The better we build our telescopes and sensors, the better a picture of the cosmos we get. Each increase in available resolution continues to bring surprises because we do not have fully-developed models of the universe.

    Take geology. Plate tectonics was validated only about 50 years ago. We don't know for sure that the same thing happens on other planets.

    And biology. The combination of Darwin, and Watson and Crick seemed to explain all of evolution. Except that, as we look more and more closely, there *are* acquired traits that are inherited ... they're just not the dominant means of evolution. Our tools are getting better and measuring with finer molecular detail, revealing secrets of the scaffolding around DNA and the immense role it plays in determining externally observable characteristics.

    Or sleep. We actually understand much of the metabolic mechanism for sleep, now. There is a real rejuvenation process. But we wouldn't have understood that without new tools that allow us to probe at high temporal and spatial resolution, and with fine molecular resolution using genetic tools.

    In short, scientists are surprised because we discover new things all the time. We remain on the cusp of wide troves of knowledge, all of which is new. Each new revolution in data collection brings with it a new, unexplored realm and, as is written in many papers, surprises.

    • Scientists aren't surprised. That's just the language that is used to describe findings that don't match up with existing dogma.

      Dogma isn't in science. You have your hypotheses, and your theories. Hypothese run anywhere from what Scientists call a WAG or wild ass guess, to well thought out ideas. Theories are when at least some hypotheses have some experimental weight behind them. The theories span the whole range from "looks interesting" to "Almost a certainty'

      Dogma does not accept change, it's more in the world of religion, trickle down economics, or infinite genders.

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      "Physics aside, our models of it tend to be simple."

      Physics isn't special. Fundamental physics has simple models that describe exceedingly simple systems extremely accurately. As soon as you scale up to anything that's a little more complicated (like a whole nucleus) you need to use effective theories, which are pretty much like the ones you find in most other sciences.

    • Speak for yourself... As a scientist, I'm regularly surprised, especially in the field of Machine Learning. I don't think people understand the incredible number of ways that these things can fail (it borders on the absurd). When the darn thing works, it's by far an exception instead of the rule, and it's very pleasantly surprising.

      ~D

  • The entire question is malformed. Classic example of cherry picking bias.

    Part of it is click-bait headlines. When do you ever see "scientists surprised" in a technical paper? Never.

    But most of it is scale. You have millions of scientists around the world doing experiments across thousands of disciplines every day. Of course a few of them will make surprising discoveries. It would be shocking if no one ever discovered anything new.

    The question sounds like major aspects of scientific knowledge are

  • "Why are scientists constantly surprised by what they discover?"

    By definition, if you discover something, it is surprising. This is seriously how low slashdot has fallen? Accepting questions that make it obvious that the poster doesn't understand the language? So sad, so fucking sad.

  • Because "scientists were surprised" is click bait.
  • If you find exactly what you expected, you don't feel the need to even mention that. The only exception is experimental findings that confirm Relativity exactly as expected - because mentioning that is what is expected (by the public mostly) for traditional reasons.
    • Heck, it scientists don't find what they expected, some fudge the numbers to get the desired results - and then don't mention what they had expected not to raise suspicion of their behavior.
  • Unexpected results (Score:5, Interesting)

    by gordona ( 121157 ) on Sunday January 20, 2019 @08:27AM (#57991024) Homepage
    I studied some of the mechanical and contractile properties of smooth muscle. In spite of vast morphological differences between smooth muscle and striated (skeletal) muscle, smooth muscle demonstrated qualitatively similar results as striated muscle. https://www.pnas.org/content/7... [pnas.org]. The surprise here is that form and function do not necessarily follow each other.
    • I studied some of the mechanical and contractile properties of smooth muscle. In spite of vast morphological differences between smooth muscle and striated (skeletal) muscle, smooth muscle demonstrated qualitatively similar results as striated muscle. https://www.pnas.org/content/7... [pnas.org]. The surprise here is that form and function do not necessarily follow each other.

      Sounds like research into Fleshlights.

      • by gordona ( 121157 )

        I studied some of the mechanical and contractile properties of smooth muscle. In spite of vast morphological differences between smooth muscle and striated (skeletal) muscle, smooth muscle demonstrated qualitatively similar results as striated muscle. https://www.pnas.org/content/7... [pnas.org]. The surprise here is that form and function do not necessarily follow each other.

        Sounds like research into Fleshlights.

        ok I'll bite. How is this related to Fleshlights? Did you look at the link I posted or any of the citations?

  • That's because you have a lot of experience with what is normal and abnormal in this world, enough to understand how surprising a unicorn on Main Street is. But there is nothing impossible about the anatomy of a unicorn; indeed nothing particularly implausible. If you *read* about a unicorn cantering down Main Street in a fantasy novel, you wouldn't be particularly shocked, unless the author was amazingly good.

    When you are a toddler, an unusually small or large dog on Main Street is a wonder. Most people

  • "the sheer number of times scientists consider something to be 'scientifically impossible', are badly disproven by some kind of new finding or discovery a few years later, and then express 'surprise' that 'X is indeed possible"

    Name three such times.

    I can't think, off the top of my head, of a reputable scientist who a) said something was impossible that b) was speaking for the community as a whole where c) it was then proven to be possible, and c) they were then surprised that it was possible.

    Maybe over 50-1

  • Just because scientists looking at something were surprised does not mean they thought it was impossible. It just means they learned something unexpected. Even in cases where they learned they were wrong about something does not mean they thought the alternative was 'impossible', more often than not the 'right' answer is well within the space of the possible, they just thought something else was the case.
  • The Scientific Method is somewhat to blame. The premise is that everything is false until proven to be true, and to go there one must provide a theory and then prove it. This requires that you think of a theory first and propose it. This alone means that you have to think of an answer to a question. By definition if your tests result in something other than you expect, you are already surprised. Then the whole scientific method is pessimistic. Take Bigfoot. whether one believes in Bigfoot or not, Big

    • I propose that the scientific method has a flaw. It should become optimistic at some point. If there are hundreds of Bigfoot sightings in a year, as some of the researchers claim, then it becomes unlikely that all are hoaxes or misidentification, so maybe the scientific method should then assume that Bigfoot is likely to exist and is undetectable for some reason.

      The scientific method isn't a strict rule set. It wasn't until 1934 that the philosopher Karl Popper contributed [wikipedia.org] to its modern interpretation with the concept of falsification [wikipedia.org], by which attempts are made at disproving hypotheses rather than proving them. If the hypothesis survives repeated good-effort falsification attempts, then it may be promoted to a theory. But if the hypothesis gets falsified, then the study's null hypothesis [wikipedia.org] (i.e. status quo) continues to apply.

      What you seem to be suggesting for the m

  • I suggest that they aren't actually "surprised," but that they have learned how to present things to the public in a way that draws attention and interest - like the "caused jaws to drop" click bait thing.
  • Pretty much anything mankind has ever 'known' has eventually turned out to be incorrect.
    It shouldn't surprise anyone when something is disproven.

  • My senior advisor who passed away 20 years ago taught us that true scientific discovery happens and is recognized when you make it sound so obvious that everybody is astonished: "how on earth we did not see this before?".

    What was astonishing in early history of science was the mesmerizing simplistic beauty of new: epicycles were tedious, boring, repetitive, ad hoccerish (adhoccer.adhockey player - you heard that here first), while Kepler's laws were weeping-inducing elegant and aesthetically pleasing.

    Nowada

  • My girlfriend's answer was that if you do a bunch of tests and repeatedly get negative or boring results, then when something new happens you're surprised.
    My answer is that it's media, and that scientists want to sound surprised so that they continue to get funding. Same reason you keep seeing the word "slammed"in politics all the time now: media spin. Media wants attention.

  • To be a scientist you need to be curious about the unknown or unexplained.
    Once you can formulate a new approach and explain an answer to these questions you become a successful scientist.
    Even for yourself but especially for the laymen the explanation might look surprising, who cares, you found the solution.

    And very likely a new question has now arisen.
  • This whole submission strains to avoid any examples of what it's talking about. Maybe if you could be a little more specific than asking us all to search for different things and attempt to find some case of "scientifically impossible." Did someone travel faster than light or something like that, and I just missed it? That would be a good case to talk about, if that's what you mean. Or was it something else?

  • ... surprised are not learning a goddam thing.

  • Is it possible that scientists are so surprised so often of the time because "surprised" make a better headline? Look at the overuse of "surprised", "shocked" and "couldn't believe what they saw" in the last few years in all types of news.

    The news industry makes money by selling content or selling advertising when you view the content. There's a perception (probably true) that "shocked at what they found" "scientists surprised" "discovered the impossible" and such hyperbole gets fingers on buttons or (muc

  • Most of those experiments that cause surprise? Nope. They do the experiment because their guess (hypothesis) says the result may actually happen. They have an idea already (a theory) about what could happen, they do an experiment, and find out of their guess was correct.
  • One wonders how many scientists were "surprised" only in news articles...
    How much of this "surprise" is down to newspapers trying to sell the story?

  • Often, unsurprising findings are published, or previous results are confirmed. And then, people make comments like, "What? They needed a grant from the NSF to figure that out? I could have told you that!" There's no winning with some people.

  • Here's the question: Why do many scientists, having knowledge of the fact that surprises in science happen all the time, continually express "surprise" when they find something unusual?

    Who do so many people, having knowledge of the fact that suprises happen in health all the time, continually express "surprise" when they find that they have cancer?

    Why do so many people, having knowledge of the fact that robberies happen all the time, continually express "surpise" when they get robbed.

    When something happens

  • Is it the researchers, or is it the journalists who are reporting on the science?

  • by SoftwareArtist ( 1472499 ) on Sunday January 20, 2019 @02:23PM (#57992472)

    Headlines that say "New finding shocks scientists" are almost always clickbait written by reporters who don't know what they're talking about. Scientists are rarely very surprised by their results. You don't know in advance what the result will be, but it usually is somewhere in the range where you thought it might be. Truly surprising results are rare. But when they do happen, they of course get a lot of press.

  • Scientist try not to speculate on things that aren't supported by current data and models, so when something unexpected happens, they are obviously surprised.
    They aren't shocked, yelling Eureka, having their entire worldviews damaged, or any of the other hysteria that media seems to want you to think happened.

    They also try to damp down assumptions that aren't based in facts so they certainly don't expect unicorns and rainbow-poop, leave that for the wackjobs and conmen. Scientists intentionally limit themse
  • Scientists are often wrong, while science is never wrong. So scientists are either surprised they're right or they're completely wrong and surprised by what they find.

  • Discover (verb) find (something or someone) unexpectedly or in the course of a search.

    The majority of surprising discoveries fall into two categories:
    . A contradiction of previously held notions,
    . Unanticipated finding

    It's largely the lottery phenomenon: "There's 10^6 dollars behind one of these doors" "Number 2" *cheers* But you knew the prize was there, you knew it was behind 1/3 doors, so why does *anyone* have a reaction to the correct selection?

    Powered heavier-than-air flight was a "discovery" when we

  • > If you do a Google News search for the keywords "scientists were surprised..."

    Injecting irony into a story makes the story more stimulating. Are you samping scientists, or are you sampling people who need to sell stimulating stories over and over?

  • No, scientists aren't getting constantly "surprised" or even "baffled". These are words journalists are putting in their mouths as a way of making a story more interesting.

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