Want to read Slashdot from your mobile device? Point it at m.slashdot.org and keep reading!

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×
Beer Science

Climate Change Will Cause Beer Shortages and Price Hikes, Study Says (vice.com) 317

A new study from Nature Plants has identified the one climate-related issue that can unite people from myriad political backgrounds -- beer. From a report: Led by Wei Xie, an agricultural scientist at Peking University, the paper finds that regions that grow barley, the primary crop used to brew beer, are projected to experience severe droughts and heat waves due to anthropogenic climate change. According to five climate models that used different projected temperature increases for the coming century, extreme weather events could reduce barley yields by 3 to 17 percent. Barley harvests are mostly sold as livestock fodder, so beer availability could be further hindered by the likely prioritization of grain yields to feed cattle and other farm animals, rather than for brewing beer.

The net result will be a decline in affordable access to beer, which is the most commonly imbibed alcoholic beverage in the world. Within a few decades, this luxury may be out of reach for hundreds of millions of people, including those in affluent nations where breweries are a major industry. Price spikes are estimated to range from $4 to over $20 for a standard six-pack in nations like the US, Ireland, Denmark, and Poland.

This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

Climate Change Will Cause Beer Shortages and Price Hikes, Study Says

Comments Filter:
  • by theurge14 ( 820596 ) on Monday October 15, 2018 @11:45AM (#57480388)

    Yes, that's the thing I was worried about with climate change.

    • by Holi ( 250190 )
      When clean water is hard to find you will be.
    • Yes, that's the thing I was worried about with climate change.

      Watch what happens when climate change reduces the availability of porn.

    • Re:Main concern (Score:5, Insightful)

      by hey! ( 33014 ) on Monday October 15, 2018 @01:09PM (#57480958) Homepage Journal

      Well, this is the reason so many people focus on extremely unlikely consequences, like human extinction or the complete collapse of civilization. You just can't get most people to focus on the likely consequences, even some pretty serious ones, because twenty or thirty years in the future they seem trivial. Some people can't get their asses in gear unless they're facing catastrophe.

      If complete catastrophe were likely, then even the people bankrolling the denialist movement [scientificamerican.com] would be concerned. But it's not. There will still be beer, coffee, beef and holiday resorts in a world that's 2C warmer, and if those things cost a lot more, they're counting on making enough money now by externalizing their costs that it wont' matter to them.

      It's basically a scheme to transfer wealth, one that exploits most peoples' present bias [wikipedia.org].

  • by Gaggme ( 594298 ) on Monday October 15, 2018 @11:45AM (#57480398) Homepage Journal
    A 3-17% yield decrease leads to a 80-350% increase in price? Call me skeptical, but this seems a bit out of band.
    • A 3-17% yield decrease leads to a 80-350% increase in price? Call me skeptical, but this seems a bit out of band.

      Your calculator must be broken. Math comes out exactly what I would expect Greed N. Corruption to deliver on mine.

      Remember to factor for demand-driven capitalism that already defines $20 for a six-pack as cheap. Whoever labeled that as a price hike hasn't been forced to buy a "craft" beer lately.

    • by Muros ( 1167213 )

      6 500ml bottles of lager will cost $12-$15 in Ireland in an off-licence, and obviously something decent is more expensive. That would make the spike range for cheap piss 27% to 167%, not 80% to 350%.

    • by religionofpeas ( 4511805 ) on Monday October 15, 2018 @12:24PM (#57480646)

      It's even worse, because the price of beer is only in a very small part determined by price of barley. Relative increase in price for beer should be much less than 3-17%.

      Also, it's pretty much guaranteed that crop yield will improve more than 17% through clever engineering between now and 2100.

      • If you can't produce enough barley, you can charge as much as the largest top segment of potential buyers that you can still satisfy is willing to pay.
      • by aepervius ( 535155 ) on Monday October 15, 2018 @04:20PM (#57482290)
        That should be a mantra for you "Past performance in biology is not indicator of future performance". To convince yourself take yield before the haber revolution to a few year after and project to what yield we have by now. To make a more clear example, the potatoe yield since 1990 has stayed the same in UK : 40 tons per hectare, after an incredible increase it stayed stable (15 ton per hectare in 1885 , then nearly 80 years later it stayed at 20 tons per hectare, then jumping doubling until 1990). The fact is that such agricultural increase happens by steps, and there is no guarantee of a future steps up. If you want another example, our life expectancy exploded due to easy steps to do, but barely moved up in the last 20 years (in the western world). So to answer this :

        Also, it's pretty much guaranteed that crop yield will improve more than 17% through clever engineering between now and 2100

        no, it isn't guaranteed, and in some case there could be a reversion as some crop/vegetable need a certain medium low stable temperature which could actually with a more chaotic continental climate, not be a given, and thus in some case we could have for certain country a lower yield.

    • There's a thing called price elasticity of supply, and it isn't necessarily equal to 1.

      Having said that, the barley is a pretty small component of the final price so its overall effect will be diluted accordingly (sorry).

      • Yeah, exactly.

        Many people will switch to potato vodka, or apple vodka, or mouthwash, if beer becomes expensive enough.

    • My only guess here is that with a decrease in availability of the types typically used for animal feed, some used for other purposes would need to be co-opted leading to a shortage for the kind in beer? As for price increase, let's face it, that has never been a straight linear relationship. A 10 cent increase in a part leads to a multi-dollar increase in the final product. Happens all the time.
    • A 3-17% yield decrease leads to a 80-350% increase in price? Call me skeptical, but this seems a bit out of band.

      Not only that, as the climate warms other areas are able to grow barley and will do so. Nothing will change except a certain farm will no longer be able to grow barley and another one will be able to do so that couldn't before.

    • A 3-17% yield decrease leads to a 80-350% increase in price? Call me skeptical, but this seems a bit out of band.

      By the time all the middlemen are done sucking "their portion of the profit" out of it, yeah. This seems accurate. If you were growing everything you needed to make beer and then brewed it yourself, a pint of beer would not cost 5 quid.

      • By the time all the middlemen are done sucking "their portion of the profit" out of it, yeah.

        The middlemen simply raise to the price to the maximum that the market will bear. The price of the ingredients has little to do with that.

    • by scattol ( 577179 )
      That sounds about right. It's true for about every food commodities. Relatively small shortages give rises to large prices increases. A shortage of 10% in produce can easily double the price.
  • now you are talking... except that decision makers don't not care if price of their single malt scotch tripples.
  • A few things... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Strider- ( 39683 ) on Monday October 15, 2018 @11:49AM (#57480426)

    The types of Barley you use for beer making is completely different than animal feed. Animal feed is 6-row barley (ie on the grain head, there are six rows of seeds) while the barley used for beer is 2 row. (ie two rows of seed). This is mostly because 6 row has far more flavour involved chemicals in it, whereas 2 row is a much cleaner slate, suitable for things other than dark ales.

    • by c ( 8461 ) <beauregardcp@gmail.com> on Monday October 15, 2018 @12:37PM (#57480736)

      The types of Barley you use for beer making is completely different than animal feed.

      Both 6-row and 2-row could be used for making beer, depending on the type of beer, manufacturing process, and how stringent your definition of "beer" is. But the distinction isn't important... in the big picture, both types of barley need similar growing conditions and hence are competing for the same chunks of land. Farms will plant whatever gets them the best money, so a decrease in optimal barley growing space means either beer or meat will get more expensive.

    • Both varieties would be harmed by climate change, at least according to the theories in TFS. They both need about the same environment to grow well.

    • Protein content is also a factor. You want it in animal feed, but not for making beer. Proteins break down into nasty tasting stuff plus they make it cloudy.

  • Hope he got a raise with his new job

  • I doubt a spike in beer prices will get peoples attention.

    Also to note, Climate change in term of agriculture will in general shift production locations (further north in the norther hemisphere) So total output will in general remain constant.

    Also there can be a lot of other factors that can affect the price of beer, other then just climate change. Factors such changes in demand (people may be wanting less beer, or substitute it with something else (Hard Cider is my preference). Or just other countries no

    • Also there can be a lot of other factors that can affect the price of beer, other then just climate change.
      The driving price of Beer in Germany are taxes, and in Thailand it is taxes and taxes.
      No idea why beer is so expensive in France, though.

      Or just other countries not wanting to import American products will lower the cost. Wow, people actually indeed import american beer, and drink it? Or is it used to feed cattle? I believe the Japanese super cattle only gets best beer from Kirin and Asahi ... but not

      • I guess it would depend on the beer.
        America makes some good beers. I don't remember the last time I went to a party and someone actually served Budwiser or Coors beer. It was normally some sort of craft beer that actually has a a taste.

      • Beer in Germany is cheap! Last I was there, it was 9 euro a case for decent beer (Becks grade), about 12 euro for the 'good stuff'.

        A German case is about five American six packs.

        Your understanding of the American beer market is about 30 years out of date. Not the criticism is 'over hopped IPAs' as far as the eye can see. American can beer is still awful, but only hipsters and trailer trash drink it.

        • by sfcat ( 872532 )

          Your understanding of the American beer market is about 30 years out of date. Not the criticism is 'over hopped IPAs' as far as the eye can see. American can beer is still awful, but only hipsters and trailer trash drink it.

          Funny you should say that. I was at a wedding this weekend where out of the blue the German groom told me that the US now has better beer than Germany does. Some people like hop heavy IPAs. Sorry you don't but I'm sure you can find other types of beer in the US too.

          • The Germans excel at making technically excellent beer. However, they lack when it comes to variety. Their culture is tied to the idea that there is a right way (process) to make beer and their are traditional styles (recipes). The result is that there isn't much flavor variety even when you hop between breweries in towns hundreds of km apart. Sure you have a few darker styles, some stronger, some lighter, but overall there isn't THAT much difference compared to the variety of beers you regularly see in the
            • The Germans make good beer in industrial quantities for cheap (unless Oktoberfest, then very expensive).

              They have some traditional varieties too. Marzen and Berliner Weisse for examples. I'll grant they don't like 'super chewy'.

              The world turns, German kids are starting to drink Jager. For their parents Jagermeister is a stomach tonic, like Underberg. Some Germans drink IPAs now.

    • Also to note, Climate change in term of agriculture will in general shift production locations (further north in the norther hemisphere) So total output will in general remain constant.

      Nope. As you go further from the equator, the total sunlight landing on the ground is reduced, as well as a shorter growing season just because of the larger difference in daylight hours between summer and winter.

      There's also less land area, but that's probably not going to have an effect since there's a lot of fallow farmland.

  • A shortage of chocolate, coffee and wine will provoke riots in the streets. Stock up while you can!
    • by sfcat ( 872532 )

      A shortage of chocolate, coffee and wine will provoke riots in the streets. Stock up while you can!

      This is more insightful than maybe you know. Laws and shortages relating to beer [beerhistory.com] have causes violence on multiple occasions in the US and Europe. Often in less developed countries, a beer shortage can cause riots and civil unrest although often this happens in concert with other shortages including food shortages. Couple this with the fact that beer is a substitute for potable water and keeping the beer flowing is often a serious matter. Also, its a good message in the US where the beer drinking crowd i

  • Fill your basement with 1000000 cases of beer now.

    Worst-case scenario: you sell at huge profit when the disaster strikes.

    Best-case: no need to leave the house for the rest of your life.

    • by sfcat ( 872532 )

      Fill your basement with 1000000 cases of beer now.

      Worst-case scenario: you sell at huge profit when the disaster strikes.

      Best-case: no need to leave the house for the rest of your life.

      This is dumb. Beer degrades and its quality is often linked to its freshness.

  • This is off topic, but I am wondering why the university still identifies as Peking University, as opposed to Beijing University? It it just because they feel they've already established their brand name, like (on topic) Tsingtao Beer?

  • Go vegan! (Score:4, Funny)

    by TeknoHog ( 164938 ) on Monday October 15, 2018 @11:57AM (#57480488) Homepage Journal

    Barley harvests are mostly sold as livestock fodder, so beer availability could be further hindered by the likely prioritization of grain yields to feed cattle and other farm animals, rather than for brewing beer.

    Another good reason to stop eating meat.

    • by Nidi62 ( 1525137 )

      Barley harvests are mostly sold as livestock fodder, so beer availability could be further hindered by the likely prioritization of grain yields to feed cattle and other farm animals, rather than for brewing beer.

      Another good reason to stop eating meat.

      I'll take beef over beer any day. Besides, by the time things get so bad that we would have to choose between beef or beer, lab grown meats should be good enough and cheap enough to cut back on livestock.

    • Yeah, but yeast is an animal. So this would be stopping eating animals so that you can drink animals.

  • Poland is very cheap right now for USD to get beer

  • I can't wait for Wine and Cheese to be affected by Climate Change, because THAT will finally get Congress's attention!

    Oh, and Diet Coke, that will get the presidents attention like no other...

    /s

  • well, maybe that bit of news will finally nudge a few hearts where influencing minds failed.

  • by petes_PoV ( 912422 ) on Monday October 15, 2018 @02:02PM (#57481296)

    so beer availability could be further hindered by the likely prioritization of grain yields to feed cattle and other farm animals, rather than for brewing beer.

    Dumbest set of priorities ever!

  • First, the models keep being changed to match current weather trends. They don’t have an accurate model that has survived five years yet, let along 50 needed for “climate change”.

    Second, they aren’t considering the wider growing regions a cycle of global warming provides. The equatorial regions barely have a change, the closer to the poles the more the increase. So the corn belt will widen into Canada and the wheat belt will move to the northern territories.

    So fear not beer swilli

Every nonzero finite dimensional inner product space has an orthonormal basis. It makes sense, when you don't think about it.

Working...