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United States Science

Wide-Scale US Wind Power Could Cause Significant Warming, Study Says (technologyreview.com) 320

XxtraLarGe shares a report: Wind power is booming in the United States. It's expanded 35-fold since 2000 and now provides 8% of the nation's electricity. The US Department of Energy expects wind turbine capacity to more than quadruple again by 2050. But a new study by a pair of Harvard researchers finds that a high amount of wind power could mean more climate warming, at least regionally and in the immediate decades ahead. The paper raises serious questions about just how much the United States or other nations should look to wind power to clean up electricity systems. The study, published in the journal Joule, found that if wind power supplied all US electricity demands, it would warm the surface of the continental United States by 0.24 C. That could significantly exceed the reduction in US warming achieved by decarbonizing the nation's electricity sector this century, which would be around 0.1 C. "If your perspective is the next 10 years, wind power actually has -- in some respects -- more climate impact than coal or gas," coauthor David Keith, a professor of applied physics and public policy at Harvard, said in a statement. "If your perspective is the next thousand years, then wind power is enormously cleaner than coal or gas."
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Wide-Scale US Wind Power Could Cause Significant Warming, Study Says

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  • by presidenteloco ( 659168 ) on Thursday October 04, 2018 @02:25PM (#57426614)
    Windpower does not add heat to the atmosphere of Earth, it just mixes around where it's hot and where it's cold.

    Greenhouse gases add heat energy (and thus average temperature) to the Earth's global atmosphere.

    These are completely different things.

    Attempting to conflate them is pro-fossil-fuel FUD.
    • I don't know if it's necessarily trying to conflate wind with fossil fuels, it's just looking at the impact that 100% wind power would have. It's pretty explicit that the effects are localized only to where the generators are, and that this is only short-term, over a longer term wind is obviously much cooler than any burning.

      Anyway, let's go ahead and scratch "100% wind power" off the list we don't have, and assume that some combination of wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, etc is probably the way to go.

      Obviousl

    • by Layzej ( 1976930 ) on Thursday October 04, 2018 @02:43PM (#57426730)

      Windpower does not add heat to the atmosphere of Earth, it just mixes around where it's hot and where it's cold. Greenhouse gases add heat energy (and thus average temperature) to the Earth's global atmosphere. These are completely different things.

      Add to that the fact that CO2 is warming the globe by about 0.2C/decade [woodfortrees.org]. That dwarfs the localized warming after only a few decades. - even if we converted all US energy production to wind.

      • by Layzej ( 1976930 )
        Though maybe I'm missing the bigger picture. No one is concerned if you raise your house temp by 2C. It's when you raise the global average temperature of the entire planet by 0.2C that there are consequences (melting glaciers, sea level rise, changes in ocean circulation, etc). None of these consequences arise from a localized temp increase.
        • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

          Problem being that localized heat increase happening over many locales over many decades has a global impact. Thermal energy has to go somewhere, it doesn't just vanish because it's not generated by sun rays in this case. That's why paper is talking about 0,5GW of generation across the US, not a single wind park.

          • by mark-t ( 151149 )
            The warming that is being documented here is not because of any global increase in thermal energy, it is because of localized changes to how the wind moves through a region. Effectively, what amounts to warming in one area would amount to cooling in another because to get warmer, you have to get that energy from somewhere. If windpower was widespread enough, then it wouldn't have anywhere to really draw that energy from to make things warmer in the first place, so temperatures wouldn't change at all.
    • Windpower does not add heat to the atmosphere of Earth, it just mixes around where it's hot and where it's cold. Greenhouse gases add heat energy (and thus average temperature) to the Earth's global atmosphere. These are completely different things. Attempting to conflate them is pro-fossil-fuel FUD.

      Windpower does not add heat to the atmosphere of Earth, it just mixes around where it's hot and where it's cold. Greenhouse gases add heat energy (and thus average temperature) to the Earth's global atmosphere. These are completely different things. Attempting to conflate them is pro-fossil-fuel FUD.

      There is a difference between global climate and local weather. Greenhouse gasses affect the global climate eventually affecting local weather, mass scale wind-generation affects wind patterns immediately affecting the local weather. As the report indicates, wind-generation can cause local weather to become warmer even without changes in global climate

    • Windpower does not add heat to the atmosphere of Earth, it just mixes around where it's hot and where it's cold.

      Exactly. So if it slows hot air escaping the continent in the summer then it may cause localized increases in temperature inland while there would be a reduction over the ocean. Overall the planet wins but since we live and grow crops and animals on the land we may end up being more affected due to the localized increase in temperature due to the reduced mixing.

      I've not looked at his paper so I'm not going to defend it but your argument for immediately dismissing it as false simply does not hold water.

      • It's started to be called "climate change" instead of "warming" for a reason

      • by mark-t ( 151149 )
        We could be affected by warmer temperatures, but the overall global climate would actually remain unchanged. As the temperatures over the continents rose, the rate at which the energy is drained from them into the cooler areas would rise as well.
    • Windpower does not add heat to the atmosphere of Earth, it just mixes around where it's hot and where it's cold.

      Yes... and no.

      I take it you didn't read the link. The study didn't say that the windpower "adds" heat to the atmosphere of the Earth. What it said was that it redistributes heat through the boundary layer (by increasing boundary layer mixing), and the net redistribution of heat can reduce the thermal emission, i.e., increases the temperature. You say " it just mixes around where it's hot and where it's cold", but mixing where it's hot and where it's cold can reduce the thermal emission. They state that t

    • Windpower does not add heat to the atmosphere of Earth, it just mixes around where it's hot and where it's cold. Greenhouse gases add heat energy (and thus average temperature) to the Earth's global atmosphere. These are completely different things. Attempting to conflate them is pro-fossil-fuel FUD.

      What do you mean it's not true?! Don't you know what happened to Holland? It was once covered in windmills which brought on near catastrophic sea level rise which threatened to inundate the whole country. Wind turbines will be the end of us all! [/end sarcasm]

    • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

      How this ignorance of basic physics got modded "+5 insightful" tells a lot of anti-scientific bias among certain activist types when science contradicts their ideology. It's exceedingly obvious that wind power generates heat which is dissipated into the atmosphere. You need not go beyond high school level physics for this, as both laws of energy conservation, thermodynamics and friction are covered there.

      The angle of the study is that "as electric generation reduces its carbon emissions, wind power becomes

      • by Luckyo ( 1726890 )

        And the study obviously talks about "boundary layer mixing preventing emission of heat from the system" which I got wrong in the initial post. Otherwise, meaning of the post is exactly the same.

    • I'm gonna go out on a limb here and claim that this is a product of bias and mental issues by the authors.
      Much like how the authors of SuperFreakonomics couldn't have resisted their "one clever trick to fix global warming" chapter thanks to their personal biases. Which came back to bite them. [realclimate.org]
      Also, the claim made in the paper is clearly false, even fraudulent.
      Whether due to bias or to drum up publicity, I don't know. But they actually show that they are wrong.
      More on that below. First a word or two on author

  • by MrLogic17 ( 233498 ) on Thursday October 04, 2018 @02:25PM (#57426616) Journal

    This. This is why we can't have nice things.
    Somebody's got a bad case of perpetual Debbie Downer.

  • by sls1j ( 580823 ) on Thursday October 04, 2018 @02:27PM (#57426628) Homepage
    We should just turn the fans on. Burn coal and dump the power into the wind farms.
  • Stuff like this always reminds me of the punch line to the Monty Python Dennis Moore sketch.... "Wait a tic... blimey, this redistribution of wealth is trickier than I thought." Law of unintended consequences. (insert Women's Institute applause here)
  • by meburke ( 736645 ) on Thursday October 04, 2018 @02:50PM (#57426796)

    It can get complicated, but Scientists have known for years that there is a price to be paid, somewhere, for the apparent benefits of "free energy".

    It is virtually impossible to calculate ALL the costs in providing wind and solar power.Do you start with the costs of mining the materials needed to produce the components of a wind generator? Wait! How about starting with the costs of producing the machinery that mine those elements? No, that doesn't take into account the lab time and personnel needed to come up with the idea in the first place...etc., etc. I found the articles on the IEEE Spectrum page very interesting. the articles have rotated off the page but are still searchable. There are many smaller articles in the series. Here's one: https://spectrum.ieee.org/ener... [ieee.org]

    • I'm not sure if this is even a problem. First, the results they suggest are based on the assumption that 100% of our power needs are generated via wind, which is unreasonable. That would mean at no point do we get any energy from natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, or geothermal. That's absurd to entertain. They also indicate that the effects would be more localized, and depending on the region may actually be desirable.

      This is interesting in an academic sense, but unlikely to be a practica
    • Really it's a very interesting statement. I'm not saying we shouldn't use wind, because it "warms" up an area. But if any energy is taken out of a system, in this case wind, there is a result. Same if we were talking about solar. Energy is being removed from the system. There will be an effect. Is it worse than using coal, most likely not, but there is an effect.

      There is no free lunch when it comes to energy. There is always a cost. What it might be, now that would be the right question...

    • It is virtually impossible to calculate ALL the costs in providing wind and solar power.Do you start with the costs of mining the materials needed to produce the components of a wind generator? Wait! How about starting with the costs of producing the machinery that mine those elements? No, that doesn't take into account the lab time and personnel needed to come up with the idea in the first place...etc., etc.

      Yeah, thank $diety that coal and oil are made out of unicorn-farts, and are hand-delivered by Jesus

  • ... the percentage of our energy needs that a technology needs to hit before The Usual Suspects will find some reason, any reason, to start wailing and gnashing their teeth and rending their clothes and shrieking "It's EEEVIL!! Tear it DOWN, NOW!!"

    8%.

    So predictable.

    • The "Usual Suspects" like Harvard Applied Physics professors? It is funny, once people have joined a cult they can't take any information that they perceive to be an "attack" on their issue. Let me guess: the researchers were paid off by "Big Oil"?
      • by LesFerg ( 452838 )

        Those bastards! If it weren't for them we would all be driving water powered cars by now! And we would have free access to un-vaccination treatments! And the aliens would be allowed to show themselves to us! I know, I have read the interwebs!!

  • ..if the Trump administration twists this into a reason to ban wind power in favor of more goddamned coal burning.
  • More energy used = more heat to the atmosphere.

    You need to reduce the energy used to cool the planet down!

  • let me guess - next FUD rearch will show... butterfly effect - an increase in tornados and huricanes caused by wind turbines....
  • by hAckz0r ( 989977 ) on Thursday October 04, 2018 @03:53PM (#57427240)

    Step 1: Create Controversy
    Step 2: Provide paid access to the materials needed to refute that controversy
    Step 3: Profit!

    First, this is a simulation, for which as far as I can tell (remember, they are selling any clues here), they didn't even model all the physical laws of the real world. The "model" for that simulation expressed in Figure 1 is absolutely laughable.

    Note, the wind turbine has transferred a percentage of "heat" elsewhere in the form of electricity. This electricity is representative of heat that is no longer in the local system, thus not all the heat is mixed and even still present in the "local" system. That heat generated by the "use" of that electricity would have been generated no matter what the source of that electricity might be.

    The mixing of the air effectively lowers the overall environmental temperature of the local system. Extracting energy from that air lowers it even more.

  • by Torodung ( 31985 ) on Thursday October 04, 2018 @04:04PM (#57427296) Journal

    We're talking about a small regional temperature change for excellent long-term benefit. This is not the same as a climbing planetary average.

    I don't see how this is a major issue, but it's good to know in places where the warmer climate is marginal to supporting the current way-of-life. In those places, they may want to reconsider putting too much wind power up. Here in Wisconsin, I'm pretty sure they can put up all the wind mills they like and people will just be happy with it. Wind power is still a "no brainer."

    The headline is misleading. "Significant" has a number of meanings, one of which is essentially "a whole lot." I would have preferred "statistically significant." Because that's really what we're talking about: it's measurable and beyond the margin of error. Big whoop.

  • Instead of thinking of global warming as the planet getting hotter, think of it as there being more energy being added to an otherwise closed system.

    Wind power extracts energy from the system and converts it electricity and whatever heat is created from the inherent friction of moving mechanical parts. The point here is that wind power systems EXTRACT energy from the weather system.

  • by Fencepost ( 107992 ) on Thursday October 04, 2018 @05:49PM (#57427818) Journal
    The abstract mentions that the mechanism seems to be that the turbines or air patterns due to them break the boundary layers, allowing warmer air back down to warm the surface. This seems like it would be geographically very localized to within and downwind of large wind farms, and is not in any way atmospheric or climate warming.

    Based on the included graph, I'm also going to guess that they're in the photovoltaic camp and feel that wind should be a secondary option.
  • by higuita ( 129722 ) on Thursday October 04, 2018 @06:14PM (#57427902) Homepage

    If you read the summary well, they are comparing a 100% wind setup for USA (something that we all know that is not even desirable, we need several power sources) and they agree that the worse case is a "small" 0.24C increase due a little higher mixing of atmospheric layers... comparing that with the current setup is a clear win, as that value is even less what we get if we could stop using coal and other dirty power sources everywhere.

    Yes, everything we do can change things, probably big cities make higher temperature increase due to their skyscrapers and AC systems than wind farms and this paper just try to measure this... and agree that is a better solution.

    Sadly people do not really read things, just quickly screen the summary and assume what they want... or even worse, dirty energy lobbies abuse the paper to try to spread FUD.

  • by Uberbah ( 647458 ) on Thursday October 04, 2018 @10:44PM (#57428888)

    Just another example of people using higher math [pinimg.com] to back up some crackpot idea, like claiming a Prius pollutes more than a Hummer. [autoblog.com]

Economists state their GNP growth projections to the nearest tenth of a percentage point to prove they have a sense of humor. -- Edgar R. Fiedler

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