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Education Science

We're All Getting Dumber, Says Science (fastcompany.com) 558

dryriver shares a report from Fast Company: Researchers at Norway's Ragnar Frisch Center for Economic Research now have scientific proof of something we've long suspected -- we're all getting dumber. In their paper, "Flynn effect and its reversal are both environmentally caused," which was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Bernt Bratsberg and Ole Rogeberg report that IQ scores have been steadily dropping since the 1970s.

The study consisted of analyzing 730,000 IQ test results gleaned from young men entering Norway's compulsory military service from 1970 to 2009. They found that scores declined by an average of seven points per generation, a reversal of the so-called "Flynn effect" where IQ was seen to be rising during the first part of the 20th century. The decline may be due to environmental factors, but because the researchers couldn't find consistent trends among families, Bratsberg and Rogeberg discounted factors like parental education, family size, increased immigration, and genetics as significant causes.

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We're All Getting Dumber, Says Science

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  • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday June 16, 2018 @02:07AM (#56793506)

    .... sounds exactly like one of those results that would vanish in a puff of annoyingly-irreproducible logic if anyone actually tried to replicate the underlying studies.

    You know, like 90% of all other published research in the psychological sciences.

    • They could have worked this out by just checking the voting patterns of a few countries of late
      • I find the current voting patterns and ideals to be akin to what happened during the Great Depression. As much of this is from the end of the Great Recession.
        There are problems so let’s blame the other guy.
        The problem happened with the current system so let’s shake it up.
        We as a world culture had kicked out working, stable and mostly positive government for a different one because a strong arm personally is focused on a pain point of the system.

    • How would you try and replicate the measurement over a period of time that has already passed?

      • by ph0rk ( 118461 )
        They're using population level data. You'd compare it to a similar population and make similar socioeconomic adjustments.

        For what it is worth, the previous findings were done more or less the same way. This one should have replicated the previous findings, and didn't. Thus the attention.

        For those that work in the area, this is something of a big deal.
    • Exactly.

      "You know, like 90% of all other published research in the psychological sciences." Or maybe 98% of that research is somewhat or mostly wacky?

      Maybe the actual issue: The smart people in Norway are avoiding military service?

      Another subject about Norway:

      Norway is rehabilitative, not destructive, to those who commit crimes. Michael Moore's film, Where to Invade Next [imdb.com] explored the system in Norway, and prompted articles like this one: Why Norway's prison system is so successful [businessinsider.com]. Quote from th
  • by Katravax ( 21568 ) on Saturday June 16, 2018 @02:10AM (#56793516)
    Or young men in Norway entering compulsory military service?
    • by wierd_w ( 1375923 ) on Saturday June 16, 2018 @02:30AM (#56793556)

      Unless there is something VERY special about Norway, a wide-spread trend that cannot be attributed to education, gender, religion, or other environmental factor has pretty good predictive qualities, since the sample size is large, and unbiased (Only males tested most likely, but the service is compulsory, not voluntary. That means *All male citizens*, not "Those that show up to the recruitment office".

      It means the sample is very very large, and that the trend is pervasive and wide-spread is pretty interesting.

      To rule out that something is indeed special about Norway, it needs to be replicated with data from other geographic regions-- but so far it is a pretty compelling argument using raw statistics.

      • Unless there is something VERY special about Norway, a wide-spread trend that cannot be attributed to education

        TFS did not exclude "education". It excluded "parental education"...in other words home schooling...as a factor.

        Bratsberg and Rogeberg discounted factors like parental education, family size, increased immigration, and genetics as significant causes.

        IMHO in the US it's government-run public schools, the DoE, and the teacher's unions who are the chief causes (but not the only ones). The US spends more on education per student than anybody but the results suck the whole bag-full.

        If the US is to have any chance of halting it's decline it must totally re-think the entire current education system, not just throw more money at it or make meaningles

      • Unless there is something VERY special about Norway, a wide-spread trend that cannot be attributed to education, gender, religion, or other environmental factor has pretty good predictive qualities, since the sample size is large, and unbiased (Only males tested most likely, but the service is compulsory, not voluntary.

        Service in Norway is NOT compulsory.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

        About 60,000 Norwegians are available for conscription every year, but only 8,000 to 10,000 are conscripted.[2] In earlier times, up until at least the early 2000s, all men aged 19â"44 were subject to mandatory service, with good reasons required to avoid becoming drafted.

        Besides that decline in conscription, actual numbers of conscripts are around 14% of eligible Norwegian males, [globalsecurity.org] cause "the number of applicants each year exceeds the needs of the Armed Forces".

        Further, researchers aren't showing a decline of IQ in Norway, nor anywhere else.
        They are working with a presumption of a decline in IQ and trying to hammer their "observation" peg into that presumed roundish hole.

        Using administrative register data with information on family relationships and cognitive ability for three decades of Norwegian male birth cohorts, we show that the increase, turning point, and decline of the Flynn effect can be recovered from within-family variation in intelligence scores.
        This establishes that the large changes in average cohort intelligence reflect environmental factors and not changing composition of parents, which in turn rules out several prominent hypotheses for retrograde Flynn effects.

        I.e. They claim that they can explai

  • by wierd_w ( 1375923 ) on Saturday June 16, 2018 @02:13AM (#56793522)

    In the early 20th century, human living conditions, including improvements in sanitation, hygiene, and dietary needs being met likely all contributed to a net rise in human cogitative performance, however atmospheric CO2 levels have also been steadily rising in that time.

    Then there's this.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p... [nih.gov]

    So yeah. Probably CO2 level rise has caught up to the benefits of improved standards of living.

    • I saw an article posted here a while back claiming that co2 is also really messing up plants. If I recall, they were becoming less nutrient rich or something like that.

      (On top of that, they are breeding plants to have more sugar and less focus on nutrients to boot)

      • by Cytotoxic ( 245301 ) on Saturday June 16, 2018 @09:07AM (#56794486)

        Not "is messing up", but "could mess up in the future" in that very specific way, should CO2 trends continue.

        The idea is that food crops will grow faster and pack on more sugars (starches) in their seed, thereby diluting the amount of nutrients per calorie. They tested this by pumping in additional CO2 and confirmed their theory, grains grown in enhanced CO2 environments have greater yields with more calories per hectare, but less nutrients per calorie.

        This all assumes a static set of strains, with no action taken by farmers and seed producers to create different varieties that better exploit the conditions, and that grains are important for providing things beyond their core starches.

    • by encad ( 4448511 )

      It is probably a multitude of courses.

      Beside CO2 we have another massive pollution, especially indoors, that is artificial lighting. It messes on a lot of scales with our bodies, most prominently with our sleep patterns.
      Sleep has a direct and immense effect on our mental capabilities. There are a lot of studies out there, some even featured on /. a couple of months ago, that we big problems with prolonged sleep-deprevation, which factors in to this.

      Another point, from a pure personal perspective, that our c

    • It's a lack of pirates in full regalia that's caused this. Just look at the correlation!
  • by RyanFenton ( 230700 ) on Saturday June 16, 2018 @02:15AM (#56793526)

    One important thing about this study - it shows that there is not a strong genetic correlation with any of these findings. That means it is very unlikely that this represents any kind of "Idiocracy"-like trend of the 'dumb genes' outnumbering 'smart genes.'

    Rather, as mentioned, it is a cultural/environmental set of factors.

    If this is replicated outside of Norway, perhaps we've been making ourselves more dumb, either by forcing our less-well-off to live without access to education, or distracting ourselves in such a way that we no longer pass tests as children anymore.

    On the skeptical side, while the Flynn effect studies counter for cultural-shift in popular knowledge pretty well - there could still be some measurement effect in there, like fewer students being able to cheat, or fewer administrators getting away with fudging numbers.

    Ryan Fenton

    • I would like to see the same analysis performed in several geographic regions as well, then correlated against geological data for atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time.

      I suspect that there is a connection. Just evaluating from multiple localities over time would do well to establish the trend as a real trend, and not just a large anomaly.

      • The data was spans more than 4 decades. Maybe the Norwegians started to insulate their homes during that period, to suffocating levels. I doubt it though...
    • or distracting ourselves in such a way that we no longer pass tests as children anymore.

      I suspect it's that coupled with "no child left behind act" style legislation, that lowers education standards.

    • One important thing about this study - it shows that there is not a strong genetic correlation with any of these findings.

      No, it merely fails to find a strong genetic component; absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. There are many genetic and non-environmental effects that they simply wouldn't have been able to measure in this study.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Or maybe we just stopped training people to be good at IQ tests.

      An IQ test is just a bunch of questions designed to test various skills that are thought to be indicative of "intelligence". You can improve your score with practice, without necessarily becoming some kind of intellectual or capable of getting a PhD in theoretical physics.

      Teaching bad changed a lot since the 70s.

      • You say the same thing every time.

        The question is how much you can improve your score with training & practice. Not that much, or there'd be people with time & nothing better to do pushing their scores into the 400 range and beyond. Heck, in Korea they'd probably make a televised sport of it.

        It's called diminishing returns. If Usain Bolt trains twice as long he doesn't run twice as fast.

        And yes, I say the same thing every time too. Difference is, I'm right.

  • "Science Says" (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Mr0bvious ( 968303 )

    Getting a little bored with the "Science" Says claims, like there's some governing body of authorised scientists that make things official.

    I've started replacing that term in my mind with "some random dude claims".

    • Don't look now, but you just supported the claim.
    • "some random dude claims"

      “... and provides supporting evidence to back that claim”

      You forgot to include the part you likely find rather inconvenient.

    • Re:"Science Says" (Score:4, Insightful)

      by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Saturday June 16, 2018 @03:53AM (#56793746)

      I've started replacing that term in my mind with "some random dude claims".

      If you used to judge the content of the study by who wrote it, you were never interested in "science" anyway. Science was always done by some random dude. That doesn't make it any more or less right.

    • Getting a little bored with the "Science" Says claims, like there's some governing body of authorised scientists that make things official.

      I've started replacing that term in my mind with "some random dude claims".

      Some "random dudes" from the past were named Albert Einstein, Isaac Newton, and Galileo Galilei, whom ironically the latter was almost burned alive for heresy for the science he was reporting at the time. It used to take some serious guts to come forward with claims in society. Threats against the accepted norm were met with punishments ranging from ridicule to death back in the day.

      Today is we reward liars. Fake news is still cheap entertainment for the brainless masses, which is enough to make any fact

  • by HotNeedleOfInquiry ( 598897 ) on Saturday June 16, 2018 @02:51AM (#56793612)
    "Norwegians are getting dumber"
  • First thought that comes to mind is the "idiot box". Though come to think of it there were lots of things we did in school that aren't covered today, so I can't rule that out.
    • It's the commercialisation of television. Free market competition has no mandate to educate. Education takes a lot of effort - which equates to money in market terms.

      And of course that's applies equally to Facebook.

  • IQ is pretty much fixed within the first few years of life, so "we" aren't getting dumber. Younger generations are less intelligent than older generations according to this research.

    • If younger generations are dumber, and people being born belong to the younger generations, then there's a net increase in dumb people.

      If older people are smarter, and people dying belong predominantly to the older generations, then there's a net loss of smart people.

      It follows that overall we as a species - which is clearly what the author meant - are indeed getting dumber.

  • Who made the bold generalization to replace "young men entering Norway's compulsory military service" with "we all"? And would that person have been smarter forty years ago?
    • Because it's a study on almost all Norwegian males (since close to every male is entering the military service) and the same trend have been seen in Finland.
  • It's obvious, people aren't learning anymore and committing things to memory. They just rely on their electronic devices to answer every question without actually going to the process of acquiring knowledge that stays with them.... so less brain exercise = lower IQ.
  • by DeBaas ( 470886 ) on Saturday June 16, 2018 @03:34AM (#56793706) Homepage

    Looking at how the comments here at /. have changed, I too see a pattern...

  • by ET3D ( 1169851 ) on Saturday June 16, 2018 @03:48AM (#56793734)

    I started writing a reply, then realised that without more information it's hard to analyse the problem, and the article isn't freely available, unfortunately.

    IQ tests don't test a single aspect of intelligence, and it matters what kind of tests have lower scores. Do these have more to fluid or crystallised intelligence? We could then further speculate what caused the particular change. For example, education has moved over the years to better address how girls learn, and it could have negatively affected how boys learn to think.

  • by Qbertino ( 265505 ) <moiraNO@SPAMmodparlor.com> on Saturday June 16, 2018 @04:08AM (#56793788)

    I'm sort of in the ADHD camp. I've read a bit about the subject and somewhat adhere to the theory that a) ADHD isn't as much a disorder rather than a genetic predestination. Roughly 10% of society being Hunter/Gatherer (creative, priest, leader, rebell, etc,), the rest being farmers/settlers. It's a bit of a chicken/egg problem: Do I have low self-esteem because im ADHD or do I have ADHD as a symptom of low self-esteem? Or is both linked to brain performance or is both linked to lack of social proof for aberrant behavior (minimalist stoic)?
    Childhood media consumption definitely plays into this, as it trains us to look for emotional states that are fully decoupled from the "mundane" reality around us.

    I however have also noticed how much nutrition and psychological factors play into emotional wellbeing and how much that plays into brain performance.

    Another thing that happened recently is that I finally had my nose-divider corrected (at the age of 47). I, for the first time in my life, can breathe properly. Or at least way better than before. The difference in my cognitive abilities is palpable. I can concentrate longer and deeper with less strain. I'm pretty sure that my confidence has risen due to that and that feeds back into my ability to concentrate. Sleep-apnosis is know to severely influence cognitive abilities (access to oxygen).

    Last but not least, I've noticed how extremely nutrition influences cognitive performance. Processed foods make me less concentrated and more sleepy vis-a-vis organic fresh foods. Again, the difference is palpable.

    Bottom line:
    There are some theories about rising CO2 levels and whatnot, but I bet dollars to donuts that if IQ really is declining again across the board that childhood media consumption and nutrition are the most significant factors playing into this.
    And I have some personal anecdotal evidence to back this up.

    My 2 cents.

  • by nospam007 ( 722110 ) * on Saturday June 16, 2018 @04:12AM (#56793792)

    At least the president is a 'stable genius'.

  • by pipingguy ( 566974 ) on Saturday June 16, 2018 @04:13AM (#56793798)

    I still contend that computer usage makes smart people smarter and dumb people dumber (yet the now-dumber people think they're smarter).

    • I still contend that computer usage makes smart people smarter and dumb people dumber (yet the now-dumber people think they're smarter).

      This does not match my personal experience. In self reflection I have outsourced a large portion of my long term memory to search engines, my attention span is vastly shorter than it used to be, and both my willingness and ability to deeply engage problems have decreased dramatically in the last decade. I am much dumber than I used to be.

      It "feels like" I only think wit

  • Most probably what constitutes intelligence is changing due to social and technological changes. Analog clocks are being removed from schools, I've read, because children cannot read them in a digital age. And what about cursive writing? There must be many subtle and obvious changes that are affecting what passes as intelligence. It could just be that the theory and testing of intelligence is lagging the massive changes that have taken place in the last 50 years..
  • I have no science ti back this up, but seams this seems reasonable...
    It seems to me this is just a function of time we live in, and the hedonistic culture we kinda trend towards. Too much comfort basically, it's just a chase to get bigger screen tv, more RAM, better phone with more storage so you can dump more stuff on it, more comfortable couch, black friday sales 50 % off everything, etc. .. At least in the western world.

    People that have it hard(er) and are forced to think and improvise to survive (an
  • >quote>declined by an average of seven points per generation

    That is just the average change. Are we told anything about the standard deviation - is that moving, possibly broader or shrinking.

    Is it possible that some of the population are getting dimmer (or whatever IQ tests measure) but that the number of "geniuses" is increasing too.

  • by OpenSourced ( 323149 ) on Saturday June 16, 2018 @07:16AM (#56794214) Journal

    ...just Norwegians are getting dumber.

  • This study has just confirmed my own findings that both my teachers in my college and my students now are dumber than me.
    • by igny ( 716218 )
      This is also a sign of maturity of the Flynn effect, that is when you stop blaming previous generation for all the dumb things they did and start blaming next generation.

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