The Doomsday Clock Just Ticked Closer To Midnight (usatoday.com) 319
Scientists moved the hands of the symbolic "Doomsday Clock" closer to midnight on Thursday amid increasing worries over nuclear weapons and climate change. From a report: The clock is now two minutes to midnight. "Because of the extraordinary danger of the current moment, the Science and Security Board today moves the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock 30 seconds closer to catastrophe," said Rachel Bronson, president of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. "This is the closest the Clock has ever been to Doomsday, and as close as it was in 1953, at the height of the Cold War." Each year, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a non-profit group that sets the clock, decides whether the events of the previous year pushed humanity closer or farther from destruction. The symbolic clock is now the closest it's been to midnight since 1953. It was also two minutes to midnight in 1953 when the hydrogen bomb was first tested.
Damn! (Score:5, Funny)
I thought it was almost lunchtime.
Re:Damn! (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Damn! (Score:5, Funny)
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Is there any situation not covered by XKCD?
launched (Score:2)
Kim Jong-un nuked my neighbor's poodle! It was unbelievable!
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But I am le tired.
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What's going on, eh?
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Re: Damn! (Score:2)
Yes it is, if you like your steak well done.
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Yes it is, if you like your steak well done.
Can I get that with fries and a Nuka Cola..... (grin)
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I thought it was almost lunchtime.
Indeed, lunchtime for the post-apocalypse radiation-zombies.
Scientists my foot (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Scientists my foot (Score:5, Insightful)
Their credibility has been gone for a _long_ time. Should be ignored.
Re:Scientists my foot (Score:5, Insightful)
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So what your saying is that you hate brown people and women?
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methinks you were a tad to subtle for some?
lol, just a little. :)
Re:Scientists my foot (Score:5, Insightful)
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I'm much less scared of nuclear missile negotiations with both armies on high alert being handled by someone like kennedy, than your current dumbfuck president handling his personal cell phone.
Having idiots driving the ship makes it much more likely to have an incident than simply driving dangerous cargos around competently.
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If that is true it's very unfortunate. I don't know how knowledgeable these people are but I consider the chance of terminal nuclear war pretty high. All unintentional of course. Maybe a Korean conflict can be contained, but India/Pakistan is less clear and the US seems to be completely in control of warmongers or reckless tensionmongers who are to stupid to know where to stop. It's full of useful idiots who are only there to make money for others.
These days nukes are considered 'a jobs program'.
Re:Scientists my foot (Score:5, Insightful)
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Maybe. What is certainly wrong, however, is the allusion, that the protesters being "atomic scientists" (whatever that means) somehow makes their protest weightier and/or attention-worthy...
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the allusion, that the protesters being "atomic scientists" (whatever that means)
What it means is that the folks who founded and originally wrote for/edited/published the journal were predominantly scientists who played prominent roles in the Manhattan Project during WW2.
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WW2 ended in 1945 and everybody of prominence back then is long dead.
But even if they were alive, try explaining, why their role in the development of the weapon makes them better experts on matters of foreign policy, military, and psychology, than that of any engineer or a dentist?
Why, in other words, should we value their opinion on how imminent the use of their weapon is over that of an engineer or a dentist?
Do you th
Re:Scientists my foot (Score:4, Informative)
WW2 ended in 1945 and everybody of prominence back then is long dead.
Not sure how that pertains to my answer to your question; but yes, the Manhattan Project (or its precursor) scientists involved in the creation of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists -- Rabinowitch, Szilard, Oppenheimer, Bethe, Urey, etc. -- are gone now, although a few survived until relatively recently (Hans Bethe, for instance, did not pass until 2005).
But even if they were alive, try explaining, why their role in the development of the weapon makes them better experts on matters of foreign policy, military, and psychology, than that of any engineer or a dentist?
Why, in other words, should we value their opinion on how imminent the use of their weapon is over that of an engineer or a dentist?
Do you think, bladesmiths could better predict the imminence of duels, than other contemporaries?
I don't know why you're asking me these questions, since I merely answered the one you posed (about what the basis for the name was), and made no assertions of the sort that your questions seem to imply or defenses of anything the Bulletin has ever published.
The so-called "Doomsday Clock" is undoubtedly the most notorious thing about the Bulletin; but it's a tiny fraction of what they publish and what they argue. In general, and from my experience, the papers/articles published therein which argue for any particular viewpoint on an issue tend to be supported with attempts at logical reasoning built upon a set of claimed evidence. That absolutely does not make any of them right, any more than the many papers that fill scientific journals every week are all correct; and it's completely reasonable to argue that one sees flaws in their reasoning or in the set of facts/axioms/whatever on which their reasoning is based; and I'd be very surprised if any of the principals involved in the publication now, or those who write for it, would argue to the contrary.
Re: Scientists my foot (Score:2)
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Re:Scientists my foot (Score:4, Funny)
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i cite Rule of acquisition #34 War is good for business
War is only good for business if you win. Even then, the effect is often only temporary, since wars increase both inflation and debt. They are often followed by economic depression even in the countries that won the war.
I don't think anyone believes that a nuclear war would be good for business.
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War is good for biz when your country is an arms supplier and not a party to the conflict.
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History and economics are not an exact science. Acting as though they are and assuming nothing but economic self-interest motivates people will lead you astray.
Economic integration is good in that it leads to lower prices but it is bad in that it can reduce people's ability to feel like they can stand on their own two feet, especially if the integration is attempted between first-world and third-world countries, as the history of
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between first-world and third-world countries,
Russia is not a first-world country. It is, by definition, second-world.
Re: Scientists my foot (Score:2)
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Nice wallotext!
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Profits vs energy self-sufficiency. Hmmm......
Doomsday Clocks are Stupid (Score:5, Insightful)
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It would be more accurate. And amusing.
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C-4
picks up peg... (Score:2)
YOU SUNK MY BAFFLESHIT!
It's closer now than during Cuban Missile Crisis? (Score:5, Insightful)
I think this idea of the Doomsday clock being soooo close to midnight reveals just how useless a measurement of crisis it actually is. They're suggesting that a global nuclear holocaust has never been more likely? More likely than during the Cuban Missile Crisis? Than when the president of China urged President Nixon to join him in nuking Russia? Closer than when Pakistan and India took turns testing nukes underground in the early 2000's? All of those years of the cold war where both the US and USSR had nuclear-armed bombers flying all around?
The only location where a nuclear event is likely to take place would be in North Korea: If any event took place, it would have to be a limited attack by the North Korea, prompting a US response. But that isn't to suggest an entire global nuclear winter would necessarily follow.
This is nothing but attention-seeking for the organization behind the clock and in no way measures the actual threat of a nuclear doomsday.
Re:It's closer now than during Cuban Missile Crisi (Score:5, Insightful)
They clearly need to walk the clock back quite a bit and do so periodically when whatever new thing they're worried about fails to come to pass or lead to new cause for concern.
Re:It's closer now than during Cuban Missile Crisi (Score:5, Funny)
It's kind of like when your teacher/parent demanded you do something by the time they counted down from 10. But when you still hadn't done it by the time they got to 1, they started with ever smaller fractions.
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It's kind of like when your teacher/parent demanded you do something by the time they counted down from 10. But when you still hadn't done it by the time they got to 1, they started with ever larger wooden spoons.
That's how I remember it...
Spoons? You were lucky.
And what the hell is this concept of a parent 'counting down from 10'? We might have had a word of warning, or not, depending on how loud the crying was.
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And what the hell is this concept of a parent 'counting down from 10'?
I'm New Around Here ( 1154723 ). You better start cleaning your room before I count to 10. 1. 2. Skip a few. 9. ... ... ... 9 1/2. 9 3/4. 9 7/8. 10. Dammit. I'm New Around Here ( 1154723 ) you are grounded! Your father will belt you good when he gets home!
You must not be so new around here ;)
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They clearly need to walk the clock back quite a bit and do so periodically when whatever new thing they're worried about fails to come to pass or lead to new cause for concern.
Admit they were wrong? Never. Better to keep up the facade that the end is nigh. Personally, I like the Dr. Manhattans view on the Doomsday clock. " I would only agree that a symbolic clock is as nourishing to the intellect as photograph of oxygen to a drowning man. ".
Re:It's closer now than during Cuban Missile Crisi (Score:4, Informative)
I think that their problem is that they continually wanted to protest some action and kept pushing the clock closer, only now they've run out of room and look damned foolish because all of these little political statements have add up to what we see now. As you point out when you look at it in a historical context, it makes you roll your eyes quite a bit. They clearly need to walk the clock back quite a bit and do so periodically when whatever new thing they're worried about fails to come to pass or lead to new cause for concern.
It's even more foolish now. The Koreans are talking to each other, the US has postponed their military exercises in Korea until after the Olympics, and the proxy wars in the Middle East are not as hot as they were a year ago. Ukraine and Crimea have "calmed down" in the sense that nobody in the USA cares anymore.
If anything, they should be setting the clock backwards.
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.
And that is how you measure the danger. That's just the public perception. The main reason these doomsday people aren't taken serious is because the public is now completely clueless.
The danger in Ukraine is increasing, not decreasing. The danger of an unintentional war between Russia and the US has increased massively. Much shorter warning times because the US is on Russia's border (and to much smaller extent
It's SI prefixes all the way down... (Score:2)
I think that their problem is that they continually wanted to protest some action and kept pushing the clock closer, only now they've run out of room...
If they really are physicists then they have a huge amount of room left. 2 minutes is 120 billion nanoseconds and you can gain the same factor again by going to attoseconds. At that point though you are at the accuracy of the most accurate clocks ever made and things like the height of the clock will start to matter due to gravitational time dilation.
Re:It's closer now than during Cuban Missile Crisi (Score:4, Insightful)
Pretty sure they also use it for climate change and other crazy shit instead of just nuclear war.
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I think this idea of the Doomsday clock being soooo close to midnight reveals just how useless a measurement of crisis it actually is. They're suggesting that a global nuclear holocaust has never been more likely? More likely than during the Cuban Missile Crisis?
OK... so time for my smart ass response... of course we're closer to a global nuclear holocaust than the Cuban Missile Crisis- because that event was in the past- any potential nuclear holocaust can only exist in the future... (sorry had to get that out the way- I'm not proud of myself)...
Than when the president of China urged President Nixon to join him in nuking Russia? Closer than when Pakistan and India took turns testing nukes underground in the early 2000's? All of those years of the cold war where both the US and USSR had nuclear-armed bombers flying all around?
The only location where a nuclear event is likely to take place would be in North Korea: If any event took place, it would have to be a limited attack by the North Korea, prompting a US response. But that isn't to suggest an entire global nuclear winter would necessarily follow.
This is nothing but attention-seeking for the organization behind the clock and in no way measures the actual threat of a nuclear doomsday.
Serious response time. Obviously we're no more in danger of mutually self-assured mass destruction (in the short term) than we appeared to be during any of those events. Few people would sanely argue that we are. It ca
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There is one important difference between the Cuban Missile Crisis and today. Kennedy and Khrushchev were talking to each other. Trump and Kim are not.
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I'm not sure that's a good comparison. Trump is currently bluffing , that's his style. He's not afraid of raising the tension and it doesn't mean he won't negotiate. He may well make a shift to negotiations later on, but there is considerable risk that things escalate in the meantime unintentionally. There is far too much confidence.
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In a general sense I think you're right. The US sees much less reason to talk than 50 years ago but that's independent of Trump.
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The only location where a nuclear event is likely to take place would be in North Korea: If any event took place, it would have to be a limited attack by the North Korea, prompting a US response. But that isn't to suggest an entire global nuclear winter would necessarily follow.
Assuming the Trump administration is willing to sit there and watch them build bigger bombs and better missiles while throwing insults and bluffs for Kim Jong-il to call. I mean if this was a bar I'd call them fighting words, just looking for an excuse to start swinging fists. And assuming China is willing to just let North Korea fall and be gobbled up by a US-friendly united Korea. My guess is that after the US has leveled Pyongyang and started to prepare for an invasion China would roll in their troops an
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Really, we never have. Can you please post some links to illustrate his clueless buffoonery? Credible sources only please.
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And yes, I'd happen to agree that we're possibly closer than we've ever been. The situation with NK is quite bad, and the US relationship with Russia isn't so great either. We have the ruskies meddling in Elections across the world, and a Russia that seems to want to grab land wherever they can.
I guarantee you we are closer than we've ever been. Also, every time you breath, you are one breath closer to death, so I would probably stop doing that. /s
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Why wasn't the Cold War worse, again? (Score:5, Insightful)
Hmmm...2 away minutes = global nuclear destruction in 1953 but 2 away minutes = incremental climate changes and a possible limited exchange (over North Korea, etc.) in 2018. Why are the goalposts moving?
Re:Why wasn't the Cold War worse, again? (Score:4, Insightful)
They don't like Trump. He says mean things. Therefor, doomsday is approaching. Typical leftist hysteria
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Or maybe, you need to take your head out of your ass and acknowledge that climate change is a real thing, threatening the health and stability of the human civilization on this planet, like 99% of the scientists believe.
But since Trump says it's fake news, and he is a very stable genius, you might as well keep your head inside of your ass where it's nice and warm.
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Pollution sucks ass. Everyone agrees on that. But have some perspective. It's not global nuclear war.
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Whoa you are conflating two things.
' climate change is a real thing ... 99% of the scientists believe.". Yes, true no problem. Fine.
"threatening the health and stability of the human civilization". Pure un-adulterated speculation that is not agreed on by anyone. Even if the worst of the worst happens for climate change that will not end human civilization and it is debated if it will threaten health or stability and by how much. Again, you can speculate but I can speculate about hookers and poker on Mars.
Do
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Or maybe, you need to take your head out of your ass and acknowledge that climate change is a real thing, threatening the health and stability of the human civilization on this planet, like 99% of the scientists believe.
Sure, and there's going to be major conflict over resources and land availability over the next century, but human civilization will survive it (assuming no one starts a nuclear war). Global thermonuclear war indicates the literal end of the world for human civilization, possibly for humanity period, which is the point of the "Doomsday" clock. The latter is doomsday, the end of the world, the probable extinction of humanity. The former is a period of strife which will reshape the global political and econom
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You are aware that no nuclear exchange in our lifetime will be "limited", right? Once somebody launches the missiles, no matter who they are aimed at, protocols take over and suddenly, everyone is launching everything at everyone.
The line between MAD and MAS is razor thin, and MAS only works because so far, all leaders with nuclear arsenals have thought it's better to keep on living than to be vaporized.
As for the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis flared up and down so fast, the Bulletin did not have time
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If Pakistan and India go nukes, why would anybody else get involved?
If N Korea launched you think the Chinese wouldn't be part of the invasion (just to protect their own interests)?
The status of the big arsinals hasn't changed. You haven't thought this through.
This group has all the credibility of the Nobel Peace Prize committee. They're spending on a credibility 'credit card' like drunken sailors at this point.
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If N Korea launched you think the Chinese wouldn't be part of the invasion (just to protect their own interests)?
Depends what precipitated the launch. During this latest round of brinkmanship China basically said that they would honor their commitment to protect NK if an exchange or conflict arose due to American aggression (ie if we start it), but if NK does anything peremptorily they are on their own. Of course, China's interpretation of what would be enough to trigger a defense of NK is rather unclear, and would very likely depend on the context and political climate surrounding that action. But I would not be i
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He wasn't supposed to win? According to who? Peter Strozk and Lisa Page with their insurance policy?
Last I understood people in elections decide who is supposed to win.
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Maybe if people listened... (Score:3)
Maybe if more people listened to and learned from Iron Maiden we would not be in this mess
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No, what we've done is stuck our heads in the sand, (a metaphorical way of run to the hills) instead of dying in a flash of the blade, with our boots on.
We let the military-industrial complex rule our lives. We lost.
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So the Doomsday Clock is closest to midnight ever? (Score:2)
Really, so now is the time where the Doomsday Clock is the closest to midnight in its whole history? Really?
More than those WW3 close calls? : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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Question. If the missiles do start flying who is going to be left to set the thing to midnight? I doubt the cockroaches and rats will give a shit ether way.
To hell with it. (Score:5, Funny)
To hell with this 2 minutes and 2 seconds to midnight. Lets just roll the damn thing right on up to midnight and see what happens! Common Hippies, make my day! Lets set that fucker right on midnight!.
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But then it wouldn't be the current day! I am scared of the future.
Re:To hell with it. (Score:5, Funny)
I think we should live dangerously. Lets set the damn thing 2 minutes PAST midnight and see what happens.
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God help us all. You're mad!
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I'm not mad! I'm insane!!
I said! I'm not mad! I'm insane!
Really there should have been some thunder and lightning there. Yo! Where is my thunder? Did any one queue my lightning?
Poster boys (Score:2)
I read at +6 !!! With Sigs off !!!
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I read at +6 !!! With Sigs off !!!
I used to read at that level. But it got lonely.
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Perspective (Score:2)
"This is the closest the Clock has ever been to Doomsday, and as close as it was in 1953, at the height of the Cold War."
So they honestly feel as though the world is this close to nuclear war?
DoomedByU (Score:2, Informative)
This has historically been a "pro tech" site, which be definition and education should include individuals educated in science... but alas, it's just more politicized, polarized arse hol
Re:DoomedByU (Score:4, Insightful)
And the cherry, the US, the Country FOUNDED on the principles of freedom, drops to 21....well done....
http://theweek.com/speedreads/ [theweek.com]... [theweek.com]
I have a hard time taking any analysis that ranks Germany [ft.com], Canada [wikipedia.org], and the UK [independent.co.uk] above the US. Hate speech laws. Arrests for tweets and facebook posts. Compelled speech... Not exactly bastions of personal freedom and civil rights. Any report that thinks countries that employ those laws are free are delusional and fundamentally flawed in their analysis.
I honestly would not trade my citizenship of the US for with any other nation on Earth. The US has it's problems no doubt but the protections for individual liberty are still foundational. I can say what I want and I can defend my right to say it myself without the government.
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"Since every war imposes on the people fearful sacrifices in blood and treasure, all personal profit arising from the war must be regarded as treason to the people. We therefore demand the total confiscation of all war profits. "
"We demand the nationalization of all trusts. "
"We demand profit-sharing in large industries. "
"We demand a generous increase in old-age pe
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Eddie the Doomsday Czar! (Score:3)
"The clock is now two minutes to midnight."
Iron Maiden has been waiting for this sponsorship opportunity for a long damn time.
Time to elect Eddie to Head up the position of Doomsday Czar.
Waste (Score:3)
I wonder how much money has been wasted on this snake oil crap over the last 7 decades. Seriously, astrology is more credible.
Re:Cuban Missile Crisis (Score:5, Funny)
There was a Democrat in the White House then. It tracks closer to midnight when a Republican is there and further when a Democrat is. It should be named the Liberal Angst Clock.
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They chose the clock as their allegorical device precisely because a clock does not run backwards. That was their mistake. To say that things are bad, and will only get worse, is admitting defeat. Why publish anything if on the cover you admit that the world is going to end in the foreseeable future?
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It's like having a gun in your house. If you have one, the chance of getting shot with your own gun is now non-zero. Then you can start to add other risk factors such as having children or keeping it loaded under the bed. Then drug or alcohol abuse or someone in home with mental issues.
You can have all of the above and the chance of a shooting are still fairly slim.
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Or do they just keep forgetting to adjust for leap seconds.
If the clock doesn't move back soon we're in big trouble when we adjust for daylight savings time.
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This is clueless. A modest nuclear war say between India and Pakistan can cause a nuclear winter which leads to a worldwide famine which by itself can decimate the world population in a short time without all the conflicts and the structural desintegration which result from that. It would be very hard to contain.
The danger of a war with North Korea is of course in the first place that there would be millions of dead over there, and maybe a fraction of that in the US. If everything remains contained. But for
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