8.5-Ton Chinese Space Station Will Crash To Earth In a Few Months (cnbc.com) 104
dryriver writes:
China launched a space laboratory named Tiangong 1 into orbit in 2011. The space laboratory was supposed to become a symbol of China's ambitious bid to become a space superpower. After two years in space, Tiangong 1 started experiencing technical failure. Last year Chinese officials confirmed that the space laboratory had to be scrapped. The 8.5 ton heavy space laboratory has begun its descent towards Earth and is expected to crash back to Earth within the next few months.
Most of the laboratory is expected to burn up in earth's atmosphere, but experts believe that pieces as heavy as 100 kilograms (220 pounds) may survive re-entry and impact earth's surface. Nobody will be able to predict with any precision where those chunks of space laboratory will land on Earth until a few hours before re-entry occurs. The chance that anyone would be harmed by Tiangong-1's debris is considered unlikely.
When NASA's SkyLab fell to earth in 1979, an Australian town fined them $400 -- for littering.
Most of the laboratory is expected to burn up in earth's atmosphere, but experts believe that pieces as heavy as 100 kilograms (220 pounds) may survive re-entry and impact earth's surface. Nobody will be able to predict with any precision where those chunks of space laboratory will land on Earth until a few hours before re-entry occurs. The chance that anyone would be harmed by Tiangong-1's debris is considered unlikely.
When NASA's SkyLab fell to earth in 1979, an Australian town fined them $400 -- for littering.
Same thing happens to me (Score:4, Insightful)
The space laboratory was supposed to become a symbol of China's ambitious bid to become a space superpower. After two years in space, Tiangong 1 started experiencing technical failure. Last year Chinese officials confirmed that the space laboratory had to be scrapped.
Every time I buy Chinese made tech, I start out with high hopes for it. Then 2 years later everything starts breaking and I have to give up and scrap it and buy something good.
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And yes, I know all about survivor bias, but I also remember my childhood very well, and the only dead appliance my mom had (inherited from her mot
Re:Same thing happens to me (Score:4, Funny)
(thanks to
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Every time I buy Chinese made tech, I start out with high hopes for it. Then 2 years later everything starts breaking and I have to give up and scrap it and buy something good.
Which is also made in China...
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Re:Very Accurate (Score:5, Informative)
The chances of the debris to hit anyone are low (the area with actual humans on it divided by total area of earth), that's why it's unlikely. If they do hit someone, the chances of harm are quite high, but again, that's unlikely to happen.
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I was poorly trying to refer to The Guide (the one which says "Don't panic").
I can't quote, but think it says something like : the most improbable things have more chances to happen.
But can you imagine me, a French guy, trying to make a joke on a mostly US site, using UK literature references ...
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It's very improbable for anyone to understand that reference without an infinite improbability drive.
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What? I don't understand. Where's the tea?
Re:Very Accurate (Score:4, Funny)
Only if you're having a nice hot cup of tea.
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I think you mean a nice hot cup of a liquid that is almost, but not quite, entirely unlike tea.
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And imagine me, eating a poutine while typing a reply to your comment in english on a US website.
Bleh. Some poutine sauce dropped on my shirt. No problem, I'll wipe it with my towel. Could be useful later.
Re:Very Accurate (Score:4, Funny)
I think you'll find most people on Slashdot are familiar with Hitchhiker's Guide. But your reference need to contain an actual.... reference.
"Ford," said Arthur, "there's an infinite number of monkeys at the door who'd like to discuss the probability of Tiangong-1 hitting someone..."
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This. We are very small bullseyes on a very big target.
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Not really. The surface area of all the human beings on earth is microscopic compared to the surface area of the earth (land and water). That also makes for statistically insignificant chance of anyone getting hurt by this. It doesn't matter that the re-entry cannot be predicted.
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let's see, each human is about one square meter (2 x 0.5) of target area so 7.5E9 square meters of humans divided by 5.1E14 square meters of surface area = 0.0015% chance of someone getting hit which actually sounds rather high to me.
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~1% of Earth's surface is urban. Hitting anywhere in a city at all with a 100 kg object from orbit sounds a little frightening.
Make sure that, while running away from your 100kg object, you don't get creamed by all those 1 and 2 ton objects running around the streets of the city.
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let's see, each human is about one square meter (2 x 0.5) of target area so 7.5E9 square meters of humans divided by 5.1E14 square meters of surface area = 0.0015% chance of someone getting hit which actually sounds rather high to me.
That's because you made assumptions that don't make sense. Firstly humans are not 1sqm of hitable area even if that meteor comes at us from the side, which it won't. It'll come at us at around about 45deg. So already you're off by a factor of 4.
Then you're forgetting about stackable humans. In apartment complexes humans overlap further reducing their surface area compared to the earth's surface, that's to say nothing of purposeful overlapping such as having sex.
Then you have all the humans who aren't actual
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you don't know how to do order-of-magnitude calculations, is all.
stackable in apartments mostly not an issue, thing could come through wall or window.
humans ARE roughly 1 square meter
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stackable in apartments mostly not an issue, thing could come through wall or window.
At a 45 degree re-entry that would reduce my 95 sqm apartment to about 4sqm worth of exposed risk the rest protecting me by significant amounts of reinforced concrete.
humans ARE roughly 1 square meter
Only dead on from the side, which is not how satellites reenter.
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1/3 of humans are lying down. 2/3 of humans approachable from any side of area (0.25 * 2) to (0.5 * 2)....1 square meter is the right number to use for order of magnitude calculation, not 0.5 square meter.
your apartment structure irrelevant, not how most apartments in the world are.
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Not really. The surface area of all the human beings on earth is microscopic compared to the surface area of the earth (land and water). That also makes for statistically insignificant chance of anyone getting hurt by this. It doesn't matter that the re-entry cannot be predicted.
I think it's a little worse than that. Humans spend a lot of time inside structures that are larger than themselves, and thus present bigger targets.
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Not really. The surface area of all the human beings on earth is microscopic compared to the surface area of the earth (land and water). That also makes for statistically insignificant chance of anyone getting hurt by this. It doesn't matter that the re-entry cannot be predicted.
Risk management is probability vs consequences. You have only considered the first of those.
The precise trajectory may not be known now, but someone should at least be able to reduce the possibilities from 'all of earth' to 'a few states/countries' in order to work out the second.
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-1
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Dead like me? (Score:2, Funny)
Meet Georgia Lass (who prefers to be called George). She is a young Seattle college dropout who is unhappy with life. She is always at odds with her mom, Joy. One day coming back from her temp job as a filing clerk, she is hit by the toilet seat of the re-entering Space Station Mir. Finding out she is now dead, she is recruited to become a grim reaper.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt03... [imdb.com]
Re:Dead like me? (Score:5, Funny)
"she is hit by the toilet seat of the re-entering Space Station"
An ass toroid
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Nice bit of editing on that opening episode:
"she is hit by the toilet seat of the re-entering Space Station"
Looks up, squints, "Ahh, shi.....BOOM
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Nice bit of editing on that opening episode:
"she is hit by the toilet seat of the re-entering Space Station"
Looks up, squints, "Ahh, shi.....BOOM
According to the Wikipedia description of onboard facilities [wikipedia.org]
Toilet facilities and cooking equipment for the manned missions are provided by the docked Shenzhou spacecraft, rather than being integrated into the Tiangong module itself.
so that's one re-entering object you don't have to worry about.
Will probably crash into western Australia (Score:2)
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Well, if movies have taught me anything, all that's out there are mutant gangs and dune-buggies anyway. It would be ashamed to lose all that S&M gear and shoulderpads though.
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Wasteland gangs always find a use for a spaceship, don't you read any science fiction?!
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Beware falling toilet seats (Score:4, Funny)
Those things will get you a post-it note for sure.
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You might want to update your signature. So far one is a science genus and the other is the capable, focused captain who is willing to do what it takes to win the war.
There have been three non white females. One was a good captain but killed by Klingons, one was an idiot killed by a wild animal and the third is pretty much the worst criminal in the Federation who is blamed for the war.
Maybe you confused it with the Orville, where all the white males are actually incompetent idiots (some of the time).
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The one straight white male in new Star Trek will be portrayed as evil or incompetent.
You might want to update your signature.
Actually, to enhance the diversity of the cast, I heard the one straight white male will be played by a gay minority female. Sounds interesting (but not enough to sign up for CBS All Access).
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Nice. I thought I was the only one who remembered Dead Like Me
"The chance is considered" SMALL not "unlikely" (Score:1)
"The chance that anyone would be harmed by Tiangong-1's debris is considered" SMALL, not "unlikely"
OR
"It is considered unlikely that anyone would be harmed by Tiangong-1's debris."
SLASHDOT EDITORS, EDIT !
FFS.
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Doc Brown, examining failed circuit: "No wonder this failed, it says 'made in Japan'." Marty: "All the best stuff is made in Japan." https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
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> No, no. SOME made in china stuff is good. Almost as good as German stuff.
German rockets fell out of the sky, too. just ask any 75 or 80 year-olds who lived in London in the early 1940's.
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Pardon, that was a feature, not a bug.
No, they were definitely Doodle Bugs.
Re: MADE IN CHINA (Score:2)
Mid-1940s. The first V-1s were launched at England after D-Day (summer 1944). The V-2s started launching in September.
The occupants are named: (Score:1)
Sum-Tim Wong
Weteu lue
Frye Wedie....
Too bad it's a once in a lifetime event (Score:2)
I'm sure I'll feel like having the Chinese Space Station crash again an hour later.
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I believe there's also an effect from the solar "wind." Even though it's minuscule in terms of mass, over time it has an effect on satellites in Earth orbit--apparently it's an indirect effect, caused by the interaction of the particles in the wind with the upper atmosphere: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impac... [noaa.gov]. And of course solar storms are (so far) unpredictable more than a few hours in advance.
Why would we like to put down China? (Score:2)
The space laboratory was supposed to become a symbol of China's ambitious bid to become a space superpower. After two years in space, Tiangong 1 started experiencing technical failure.
It seems another case that we would like to find any opportunity to derogate China, even when it is clearly a case of technical and quality achievement?
Wikipedia entry [wikipedia.org] on this space station: Tiangong-1 was initially projected to be deorbited in 2013,[11] to be replaced over the following decade by the larger Tiangong-2 and Tiangong-3 modules,[12] but as of June 2016 it was still aloft, though in a decaying orbit.
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It was a hell of an achievement to get it up there and working as long as it did, but it experienced failure before its projected end-of-mission - that kind of puts a limit on the "quality" score.
If you want to talk technical and quality achievement, look at Spirit and Opportunity, Voyager, Cassini, and so on.
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You are spreading misinformation. Read the wikipedia entry, the station has two extended years of service than it was designed to be.
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its originally projected launch date which slipped almost two years.
Tiangong-1 was delivered on time but the launch was delayed by 3 months because the need to double check its Long March 2F rocket after a Long March 2C failed. Sure, you can nail against that (though the Long March rockets had and still have one of the highest success rate in the world) but it is not much the fault of the Tiangong-1.
Tiangong-2 was delayed by 2 years (*). That could be for any number of technical or non-technical reasons. How does that imply Tiangong-1 being a failure?
(*) the planned Tiangon
Will they have an appropriate ... (Score:2)
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Because it's rocket science...
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"Will break out popcorn when it does re-enter to see who (if any) are the lucky winners of having their neighborhood re-decorated with Chinese space hardware bits."
No problem, the likely winners just toss another Tiandong on the barbie.
Lottery winner dies suddenly... (Score:2)
How to tell when it's really not your day.
Insurance. (Score:2)
I hope everyone's insurance is up to date...
Yeah, yeah, the US did thta first...Skylab (Score:2)
We let ours, the first, crash first. In the late seventies. And it weighed 80 tons.
*Hmph* We're the US, we make bigger booms....